Helio's Axis AAR (v Cannonfodder Soviet)

[heliodorus04]

This is very much a plan-and-fight-and-adjust-kind of turn, so here is the first part of the center near Chernigov. I got very good performance out of the Hungarians (including their Air Force, which is desperately needed on the front, as I have only 500 BF109s in all my inventory and only 50 in the damaged pool)…

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This is a 2-turn sort of maneuver, though) I believe 48.Panzer may have enough to reach the further north rail-line (but it’s going to be close. I still haven’t done the math on how many MPs it will take 48.Panzer to move up from the south, nor of how much it would cost 57.Panzer to move east of Bryansk (if indeed that’s something I decide is worth pursuing – a lot depends on 48.Panzer’s move, which itself is based on 6. & 17.Army fighting… One bite at a time.

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Here’s how the next bite went:

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This next shot is when 48.Panzer takes the lead in the final exploitation moves.

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And once across the Seym, the rail lines are cut. I’d like to take this auspicious moment to point out that I’ve just proved myself wrong that there’s no way to get a Kiev style pocket against a competent Soviet opponent…

The pocket is not closed yet, but it certainly is looking very good. Kiev defenders are in a world of trouble right now. But so too is 48.Panzer, let’s remember… This about wraps up the leg-work for Army Group South; I’ll now have to work some details in the Vyazma area. My initial thought is that it’s okay to take off the gas on the road to Moscow: the 2 panzer corps that have buildup effects this turn (47.Panzer used buildup Turn 8, if I remember, and 57.Panzer used it last turn). I’m strongly considering a maneuver from Vyazma to Bryansk.

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Here’s the Bryansk-Kaluga-Moscow axis of advance.

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57.Panzer can reach the southern railroad point, and elements can build a wall of ZOCs that will support safe supply for a couple turns. But the problem with what I’m about to do is that it’s going to make CF desperate. I counted the divisions between Chernigov and Sumy and it’s about 33 (including 6 airborne brigades). Between Chernigov and Bryansk there are about 12 more, but my recon isn’t as reliable.

North of Bryansk right in my path are some airborne brigades, and some beaten down tank divisions. The best defenders are probably right at the gap between the Bolva and the Zhizdra rivers. I have a number of infantry divisions down there to support, but only a couple of them can make it to that gap and perform a hasty attack. A panzer and an infantry division with artillery and SU support can usually knock back a single division of anything that’s not in a swamp or a level 2 fort. That’s the power an Axis player needs to learn to use efficiently, I think. 2-stack hasty attacks (2SHA) can get you through a lot of light woods.

Unfortunately, his strongest units were exactly where he needed them to be, in the river gaps. This required me to use an infantry division and a panzer division in a deliberate attack. One motorized division went around the west of Bryansk. I was hoping the city was ungarrisoned, but my recon never spied it (unusual given how much I fly). That westward trip cost a few MPs, and I had to scale down the penetration headed South. I am absolutely certain that this is going to provoke a massive and strong reaction from CF because this is an entire Front’s worth of units in that as-yet-unclosed pocket. 57.Panzer is also low on tanks.

This battle for the Kiev pocket is going to be 2 or 3 turns of Chaos. The first big sacrifice this maneuver requires is ceasing the drive on Moscow. 9.Army will be tasked with squaring off against the Soviets, and the panzer groups’ infantry are able to move east or south next turn, depending on the reaction (I’m imagining ‘south’ is the way I’m going to have to move).

My ace in the hole are the panzer corps. 46. & 47.Panzer corps are resting (this makes 2 turns in a row for 47.Panzer’s armor divisions). If I’m lucky at the start of next turn, 39.Panzer (Leningrad) will reach the Bryansk area, and their headquarters is already in position to use buildup NEXT turn (its divisions are close to the rail line and should get enough MPs to catch up to the HQ. 41.Panzer arrives in the area on about T12.

Speaking of Rail Lines: I’ve decided to actively patrol my rail lines from here on out. Since I have doubled-up on FBDs at Cherkassy and Smolensk both, I have 1 rail artery supporting each Army Group. A partisan squad could ruin my day… So you’ll see various SEC and even infantry divisions broken down, usually attached to OKH, that I’m just moving around my rail line. The rail situation is getting better around Kiev with the repositioning of AGS and AGA HQs.

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Near the end of the turn’s moves, this is how it looked on paper…

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There is going to be desperate fighting ahead…

The turn is winding down, and AGC is desperately short of fighter support (sigh). Losses are starting to accumulate on my divisions and certain ones are being relegated to flank and garrison duties. I think I’m as well expected as I can be for whatever happens in this Kiev pocket maneuver. It’s going to be interesting.

I think CF probably just did not study his rail supply closely enough as we fought for the Dnepr. I got very lucky in a couple key places, namely the unintentional logistical genius break last turn that enabled 57.Panzer to Buildup. Without that, this pocket would be a feint at best. And that was dumb luck… I’m also taking heavy risks with these 2 panzer corps. I do not know how they will have any fighting power left in a couple of turns. If this pocket closes, they’ll need some rest and refit, and we’re running the clock as tight as we can.

My one big fear for this pocket is that it causes CF to surrender. He does have the new baby and all. Let’s hope he keeps going with it, because I doubt highly that I’ve got a lock on any kind of win (especially Axis auto-victory, no way).

Was an interesting turn, to say the least.

Battle Tally:
99 division-attacks occurred this turn, a new high-water mark. Unfortunately, 21 of those were Held. On the other hand, 16 of the remaining 78 were routes, and as usual, units that win battles are singled out again for a beat-down. But overall, my losses are going up. That’s the point of this strategy. Oh, and speaking of that, isn’t it odd how I’m actually doing interestingly well even though I’ve not captured a single armament point since T1? I wonder if CF didn’t make this turn’s supply pathway mistake though inadvertently being too focused on protecting the rail lines for his factory evacuations. Just speculating.

[BletchleyGeek]

Wonderful planning! Kudos on taking out the rail lines... You might well end up getting your Kiev pocket

[Balou]

heliodorus,

from your Preface..

...factory raiding is very bad for the flavor of the game, so let this be a test case of not worrying about it and seeing how my outcome differs from others’.

and recently...

Oh, and speaking of that, isn’t it odd how I’m actually doing interestingly well even though I’ve not captured a single armament point since T1?

Yes, sir. And since you probably won't get any arm points from now on, this could be the ultimate test for an "I totally ignored his armaments, so what" - AAR. It's quite something for a change.

[Mike13z50]

If you pull a dozen or more (as many as you can)construction engineers out of the Corps back to AG and especially OKH you will see a dramatic increase in your non trunk line repair. You won't need them for digging until winter and you can transfer them back in the mud.

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04

I have had the 11.Army FBD working in concert with the original AGS FBD since Turn 2 (now both at Cherkassy area)- that's why the supply network is so close to the bridgehead.  I'm convinced this is a great idea for AGS.  Now I'm going to try to repeat the advantage in the center.

[heliodorus04]

Kursk, 1941…This is where the Iron Crosses grow…
The only thing I was sure about after last turn’s double-pincer move toward Kursk was that it was going to provoke a desperate response from CF. I couldn’t predict from where he would take reinforcements to plug the eastern side, and I had no idea how much supply would be kept within the Kiev pocket area, which would dictate how far the units on the west side of the pincer could move.

As it turns out, it’s a little worse than I thought for me, and CF is in a little bit better shape. Here is an overview map, it’s post-recon (but not all recon) and so I know already that Kursk is occupied.

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Here’s the start of turn sitrep with rail highlighted

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I’m planning the Kursk operation, and trying to encircle virtually all of Southwestern Front. There’s a lot of meta-game stuff going on here, such as “Can a player who ignores Armament center destruction put up a decent fight through 1942” and whether HQ buildup is over-powered (it is not!), but that’s all ancillary to this Kursk, August-September 1941.

I have a very good chance at closing this pocket, still, but I know right now, even if I close all the points I need to and fully encircle the pocket, making it is one thing: keeping it closed is another. I need to be planning right now for how I support this operation and fully close the pocket on Turn 12.

This isn’t quite “All-in” for Germany, but if I pull it off, I can’t imagine having too hard a winter (but then again I’ve only played into Blizzard once, and it ruined me). Any surrendered units won’t be coming back in time to draw enough reinforcements and participate in the Blizzard (or so I believe). If there was an incentive to take Moscow, I’d love to pursue it. It’s a shame to get this close to Moscow and think “meh, don’t need it.” But from what I know of the game, taking units off the map is the best way to protect yourself for winter, and to set yourself up for a good 1942.

The operation depends on cutting off the rail line at Kursk – that’s the closest railhead to those units caught in last turn’s pincers. While I do that, obviously I can’t let Soviets cut my own supply corridor: all the panzers are headed for Kursk (maybe not all, but that’s what I’m talking out), and CF and I both know the tank numbers are way low. (edit: actually they’re not at all terrible if you look at the AFV numbers I posted to one of these screen shots. I have a few divisions with under 70 tanks, but several with 150).

Security will be provided by infantry wherever possible, but as we get toward the center where the Soviet defenders are in between my north and south pincers, nobody can really make it that far, so the panzers are going to have to hold the center. Edit: what would turn out to be key in the north was that I held the gaps in the river line, and I had a long corridor for the infantry to move across.

Much of the planning, as last turn, will occur on the fly as I move and fight. Held results, bad retreats, and units appearing where I think there are none, can make this turn’s close of the pocket impossible, and if I can’t at least cut the rail around Kursk to keep his supply lines strained, I will have to abandon the effort and try to find less ambitious strategies to turn. For now, though, my recon gives me confidence.

This is the situation at the start of the breakout in the northern half. I’ve conducted 2 attacks to keep the river gap free of enemy ZOCs. By the way, this screenshot missed 24.Panzer which is also near Kaluga.

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Screenshot

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Next up is opening the corridor from 57.Panzer to Orel. Is Orel garrisoned? Take the quiz!

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And here’s the close-up of the Sumy-Kremenchug axis

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So far so good. The screenshot makes 17.Army look a lot more vulnerable than it is. Near Poltava, I have 2-stacks of 2 infantry, and a stack on the far south end. He did attack me here last turn, and forced retreats, but I don’t think he’ll be inclined to push his luck if the isolation forms. There is a bit of a hollow south of the Dnepr, but 11.Army is very close. I do have to be cautious that he doesn’t unroll the middle there.

I don’t know if I can make the ZOC corridor between north and south. I think I can. But it’s not so much that I can, it’s whether I can do it in such a way that when I open my T12, the isolation is held. Last turn, I made a mistake by not doing a better job blocking the divisions that fled Bryansk, and now they’re preventing me from a more direct route. On his turn, CF took advantage of that mistake, but I think he made a mistake trying to isolate the 1 panzer division, and in isolating it, he left me the backdoor to Kursk’s railhead, if not the keys to the city itself. I have to try to close this thing down in such a way that I can withstand some attacks and some maneuvering by cavalry divisions. I hate those rat-bastards…

Two interdictions cost 14 and 20 MPs respectively on mobile elements of 48.Panzer corps. But ultimately it’s nowhere near enough. A perfect storm of logistics, buildup timing, and terrain enable me to make a pocket.

[heliodorus04]

Screenshot