Matrix Games Forums

It lacks the German paratroopers who are able to capture Franco to explain him what is expected of him.
This is why we entrust the design of wargames to professionals and not to the militaries.

ORIGINAL: Alfred

All I see in this thread is thought bubble after thought bubble thrown out.  None based on any reality.  All demonstrating extreme amateur understanding of military considerations, completely overlooking the political, economic and geographic constraints which good professional military planners incorporate into action.

Let's look at a few elements of this fantasy.

But...but..but what about those black dashed lines that allow my armies to cross entire oceans? Are you implying they don't exist in reality? No. Nooo. NOOOO!!!

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

...

Pretty much. Let me just add that every ETO scope wargame I've ever encountered agrees with me. So, I've got a lot of people who earned a living making wargames on my side.

...

Yep, this is convincing. I remember invading Turkey in a game of Prados' classic Third Reich. And as we all know that was both great fun to play and utterly realistic, I still wonder why other games fail to capture the realistic tactic of using air factors to meet losses in your paratroops.

ORIGINAL: loki100

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

...

Pretty much. Let me just add that every ETO scope wargame I've ever encountered agrees with me. So, I've got a lot of people who earned a living making wargames on my side.

...

Yep, this is convincing. I remember invading Turkey in a game of Prados' classic Third Reich. And as we all know that was both great fun to play and utterly realistic, I still wonder why other games fail to capture the realistic tactic of using air factors to meet losses in your paratroops.

I remember my brother playing HOI and sending 12 armoured divisions into the mountains somewhere to fight infantry - only half of one division came out. I told him that you don't use armour in the mountains. Maybe supporting lots of infantry but not much armour could be used in the attack.

This thread gets better.

Absolute bullshit for the most part but it's fantastic!

I love it.


Keep it going....


Where's the monarch-worshipping warspite1 when you need him?

[:D]

ORIGINAL: rico21

It lacks the German paratroopers who are able to capture Franco to explain him what is expected of him.
This is why we entrust the design of wargames to professionals and not to the militaries.

Ah yes, a very good point but ...

How would the paratroopers find him? There is no schloss in Spain therefore someone would have to start looking for a castillo. There are an awful lot of castillos in Spain, it wasn't called Castilla y Leon for nothing.

Plus you can only pull that stunt once. If they do it in 1940 with Franco they won't be able to do it in 1943 with Mussolini.

It is a maxim of show business to let the audience want more. No point in showing the highlights of the show in the first 20 minutes. This ain't the Three Penny Opera with Mack the Knife.

Alfred

ORIGINAL: Alfred

... This ain't the Three Penny Opera with Mack the Knife.

...

och, thats a wee bit harsh, I think that Curtis is a worthy successor to Brecht

ORIGINAL: Bo Rearguard

ORIGINAL: Alfred

All I see in this thread is thought bubble after thought bubble thrown out.  None based on any reality.  All demonstrating extreme amateur understanding of military considerations, completely overlooking the political, economic and geographic constraints which good professional military planners incorporate into action.

Let's look at a few elements of this fantasy.

But...but..but what about those black dashed lines that allow my armies to cross entire oceans? Are you implying they don't exist in reality? No. Nooo. NOOOO!!!

Ah, you got me.

But don't you have to shoot a double six before noon on 29 February plus have received a visit from Marlene Dietrich on your birthday to boost morale to a level high enough to neutralize the sea sickness experienced whilst waiting for the fog to clear to allow visibility of the black dashed lines?

Alfred

[Turns to face camera] Well, that was an interesting set of posts wasn’t it boys and girls?

I note the following in particular:

Alfred

All I see in this thread is thought bubble after thought bubble thrown out. None based on any reality. All demonstrating extreme amateur understanding of military considerations, completely overlooking the political, economic and geographic constraints which good professional military planners incorporate into action.

I was involved in a what-if back in the day in the WITP-AE thread and had this type of comment levelled in my direction. Funny because having so stated my shortcomings, the poster then proceeded to write his view which almost entirely copied what I’d said….
So the same in this thread. I am accused of:

“…completely overlooking the political, economic and geographic constraints”

I am not really sure how many times I can raise these points in this thread – I am not going to go back and give every example of what I’ve discussed because you’ve not had the courtesy to acknowledge them at this stage so have no reason to believe you would do so, even when pointed out. But once Curtis Lemay came in with the ‘blitz’ post, I’ve been raising these issues (Posts 64, 77, 80, 85, 89, 90, 95, 102, 106, 108, 117, 122, 124 and 132 as well as mentioning them while this thread dealt with Italy initially).

“The funniest thing in this thread is the oft repeated claim that commercial war game designers support this fantasy and therefore it isn't a fantasy”.

Not a claim I have in any way shape or form made. If you are going to pick up on people’s points then kindly take it up with them. Indeed I registered my disagreement to this methodology in Post 90.

There is a section headed Spain and a load of questions. As per post 134, having got at least a start of a timeline rather than some vague notion, I asked Curtis Lemay for his comments and he has not yet had a chance to answer (assuming of course that he wishes to).

But you’ve gone ahead anyway, and sought out questions yourself, which of course is absolutely fine – but in doing so please don’t suggest many have not been raised by me previously (with others to follow if Curtis Lemay responds). I mentioned in Posts 89 and 106 that all that has been given is a ‘broad brush blitzkrieg through Spain and Turkey’. I’ve asked for details and a case to be made.

“In 1940, a German attack on Spain can only be launched from the very narrow strip of French Atlantic coastline occupied by the Germans under their agreement with Vichy France”.

Please see Post 134. Point 6. But there is now a potential problem. For Operation Felix the thin corridor in Western France was no issue for a German army being invited in to Spain. But for the German blitz, that means a very narrow, mountainous front for the Spanish to defend. Thoughts?

“Assume against the facts, that the Iberian peninsula is fully captured (that includes Gibraltar) before the end of 1940. That definitely leaves the Azores. Madeira, Cape Verde Islands, and the Canaries out of German reach, Wouldn't be long before they were under British control”.

I have mentioned this (Post 89 amongst others) – and how the loss of Gibraltar isn’t necessarily the game changer people think it would be (it depends how Gibraltar is lost and whose side Spain is on).

As for Portuguese territory that would depend on how this plays out (mentioned in Post 102).

“Suggestion has been made that Spain would be pillaged…..Then there is the question of tungsten which Germany was heavily dependent on Spanish production”.

I’ve raised both the resources from Portugal/Spain (Post 85) and Turkey’s Chromium (Post 102)

“Things like food and petrol. Funny thing about a population which lacks food. The civilians tend to get very angry. These years are known in Spain as the hungry years for very good reason”.

I don’t know in how many posts I’ve raised food as an issue – both for Spain and indeed Vichy – Posts 89 and 124 being but two.

“utilising naval mobility”

Please see Post 134. Point 8. The Canaries and the Balearics could be occupied by British troops, aircraft and a naval presence. This is also why the German anti-shipping squadrons – and their employment – is so vital in any discussion (Post 132 and others).

So, please don’t be so arrogant as to suggest that only you know what you are talking about when it comes to World War II.

[quote]None based on any reality. All demonstrating extreme amateur understanding[/quote]

Well you’ve repeated a lot of what I’ve said so if all I’ve written is amateurish and unrealistic, then I guess you are in good company.

ORIGINAL: IslandInland

This thread gets better.

Absolute bullshit for the most part but it's fantastic!

I love it.


Keep it going....


Where's the monarch-worshipping warspite1 when you need him?

[:D]

We aim to please.

My next show is:

"Blitzkrieg, The Myth: The true intellectual property owners of the concept"

coming to a socially distanced venue with hand sanitizers every 6 metres, soon. All proceeds to pay my 14 day 5 star hotel quarantine bill.

Alfred

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: rico21

It lacks the German paratroopers who are able to capture Franco to explain him what is expected of him.
This is why we entrust the design of wargames to professionals and not to the militaries.

Ah yes, a very good point but ...

How would the paratroopers find him? There is no schloss in Spain therefore someone would have to start looking for a castillo. There are an awful lot of castillos in Spain, it wasn't called Castilla y Leon for nothing.

Plus you can only pull that stunt once. If they do it in 1940 with Franco they won't be able to do it in 1943 with Mussolini.

It is a maxim of show business to let the audience want more. No point in showing the highlights of the show in the first 20 minutes. This ain't the Three Penny Opera with Mack the Knife.

Alfred

Send Fallschirmjagers in any spanish post office!

ORIGINAL: IslandInland

This thread gets better.

Absolute bullshit for the most part but it's fantastic!

I love it.


Keep it going....


Where's the monarch-worshipping warspite1 when you need him?

[:D]

warspite1

Well I am glad you've had some enjoyment from this thread. Perhaps they will give us our own series and put it out on Dave.

ORIGINAL: rico21

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: rico21

It lacks the German paratroopers who are able to capture Franco to explain him what is expected of him.
This is why we entrust the design of wargames to professionals and not to the militaries.

Ah yes, a very good point but ...

How would the paratroopers find him? There is no schloss in Spain therefore someone would have to start looking for a castillo. There are an awful lot of castillos in Spain, it wasn't called Castilla y Leon for nothing.

Plus you can only pull that stunt once. If they do it in 1940 with Franco they won't be able to do it in 1943 with Mussolini.

It is a maxim of show business to let the audience want more. No point in showing the highlights of the show in the first 20 minutes. This ain't the Three Penny Opera with Mack the Knife.

Alfred

Send Fallschirmjagers in any spanish post office!

ORIGINAL: warspite1

[Turns to face camera] Well, that was an interesting set of posts wasn’t it boys and girls?

I note the following in particular:

All I see in this thread is thought bubble after thought bubble thrown out. None based on any reality. All demonstrating extreme amateur understanding of military considerations, completely overlooking the political, economic and geographic constraints which good professional military planners incorporate into action.

I was involved in a what-if back in the day in the WITP-AE thread and had this type of comment levelled in my direction. Funny because having so stated my shortcomings, the poster then proceeded to write his view which almost entirely copied what I’d said….
So the same in this thread. I am accused of:

“…completely overlooking the political, economic and geographic constraints”

I am not really sure how many times I can raise these points in this thread – I am not going to go back and give every example of what I’ve discussed because you’ve not had the courtesy to acknowledge them at this stage so have no reason to believe you would do so, even when pointed out. But once Curtis Lemay came in with the ‘blitz’ post, I’ve been raising these issues (Posts 64, 77, 80, 85, 89, 90, 95, 102, 106, 108, 117, 122, 124 and 132 as well as mentioning them while this thread dealt with Italy initially).

“The funniest thing in this thread is the oft repeated claim that commercial war game designers support this fantasy and therefore it isn't a fantasy”.

Not a claim I have in any way shape or form made. If you are going to pick up on people’s points then kindly take it up with them. Indeed I registered my disagreement to this methodology in Post 90.

There is a section headed Spain and a load of questions. As per post 134, having got at least a start of a timeline rather than some vague notion, I asked Curtis Lemay for his comments and he has not yet had a chance to answer (assuming of course that he wishes to).

But you’ve gone ahead anyway, and sought out questions yourself, which of course is absolutely fine – but in doing so please don’t suggest many have not been raised by me previously (with others to follow if Curtis Lemay responds). I mentioned in Posts 89 and 106 that all that has been given is a ‘broad brush blitzkrieg through Spain and Turkey’. I’ve asked for details and a case to be made.

“In 1940, a German attack on Spain can only be launched from the very narrow strip of French Atlantic coastline occupied by the Germans under their agreement with Vichy France”.

Please see Post 134. Point 6. But there is now a potential problem. For Operation Felix the thin corridor in Western France was no issue for a German army being invited in to Spain. But for the German blitz, that means a very narrow, mountainous front for the Spanish to defend. Thoughts?

“Assume against the facts, that the Iberian peninsula is fully captured (that includes Gibraltar) before the end of 1940. That definitely leaves the Azores. Madeira, Cape Verde Islands, and the Canaries out of German reach, Wouldn't be long before they were under British control”.

I have mentioned this (Post 89 amongst others) – and how the loss of Gibraltar isn’t necessarily the game changer people think it would be (it depends how Gibraltar is lost and whose side Spain is on).

As for Portuguese territory that would depend on how this plays out (mentioned in Post 102).

“Suggestion has been made that Spain would be pillaged…..Then there is the question of tungsten which Germany was heavily dependent on Spanish production”.

I’ve raised both the resources from Portugal/Spain (Post 85) and Turkey’s Chromium (Post 102)

“Things like food and petrol. Funny thing about a population which lacks food. The civilians tend to get very angry. These years are known in Spain as the hungry years for very good reason”.

I don’t know in how many posts I’ve raised food as an issue – both for Spain and indeed Vichy – Posts 89 and 124 being but two.

“utilising naval mobility”

Please see Post 134. Point 8. The Canaries and the Balearics could be occupied by British troops, aircraft and a naval presence. This is also why the German anti-shipping squadrons – and their employment – is so vital in any discussion (Post 132 and others).

So, please don’t be so arrogant as to suggest that only you know what you are talking about when it comes to World War II.

[quote]None based on any reality. All demonstrating extreme amateur understanding

Well you’ve repeated a lot of what I’ve said so if all I’ve written is amateurish and unrealistic, then I guess you are in good company.

[/quote]

warspite1,

This is so typical of you.

1. Not once have I mentioned your name.

2. Have I missed a claim from you that your comments are supported by commercial wargame designers? I don't think so which brings up the interesting psychological question; why are you taking credit for someone else's statement otherwise on what possible logical grounds can you find personal offence. That's 1 to me, 0 to you.

3. Not once did I say I'm the only one who knows WWII. However I will say this for the first time ever. Overall you certainly don't know more than me. Actually, you don't know more than many who post. Perhaps there exists a feeling of insecurity. It would explain your regular repetitive postings.

4. You don't hold copyright to ideas. Especially when you don't flesh them out with extensive specific supporting details. Perhaps you have not yet found them in a book. Augment your book reading with a visit to Spain to see first hand the terrain.

5. Essentially you believe you have been plagiarised. Well my post does not constitute how plagiarism works, not in academic circles and most certainly not on an internet forum. As any good novelist/playwright will admit there are only 7 stories in the world. How many novels and plays have been written over the millennia in all the different languages and cultures, all apparently by plagiarists according to your interpretation.

6. Yes, I remember that AE thread very well. You took umbrage at things which were not directed at you, and when your error was pointed out, for the only time I can recall on the Matrix forums, you did not insist on having the last word (which you always do repeating yourself if necessary) and quietly left the forum without an apology or any kind of follow up post. Too embarrassed to be caught out. Oh, and the thread was not at all how you present it; no one in that thread took any of your ideas. A real man does not sulk away when they are at fault.

7. The post of mine you quote is not full of questions. Quite the opposite. But for the sake of argument, let's say it is full of questions. That would be just like your own posts. Hypocrisy at play here. That's now 2 to me, 0 to you.

8. Sum of us try to be concise, whilst still being thorough, in our communications. I for one am certainly not paid by the word, however as Charles Dickens was paid by the word I can't discount the possibility that you are similarly paid. It would certainly explain the verbosity of your repetitive posts. Yes, report writers are trained to be as concise as possible as it helps to convey information to the reader. Nothing worse than reading a report by some who is trying to emulate the style of Joyce. The objective of trying to be concise is not advanced by specifically quoting every post in this long thread. You might care to take this objective onboard. A very good exemplar of concise writing in this very thread is found in the poster who has simply said in several of his posts that they must be good pharmaceuticals. See, very concise and very clearly conveys to the reader that posters view on the subject.

9. Several posters have made comments not a million miles from your own comments. Why the lack of petulance at them? You certainly haven't accused them of being arrogant. The answer is undoubtedly found in the allusions found in this post. They do not reflect well upon you.

Alfred

To me, the only alternative WWII in the ETO is the one in which the decisive events happen in the very heart, not in the periphery.

I -and you- don't know how many more Soviet divisions needed to be destroyed or how many more cities had to be taken to knock the USSR out of the war. It's pure speculation so let's forget it. But imagine Hitler somehow succeeds *in the very heart*

He is the master of the huge Eurasian landmass (the Japanese might be "allowed" to swallow the oriental chunk up to let's say Irkutsk). Now the raw numbers. The Wehrmacht is a 150-200 divisions strong beast minimum. Not counting the possible (in this scenario) satellites, allies, puppets, proxies.

The British *decided aka political decision* (before the fall of France) this war (the real WWII) would be fought with circa 40 divisions... So what's going to happen? We know this was basically like the WWI plan or idea. But that war was not over by christmas 1914 therefore the plan needed to be revised. A *90* divisions British Army was raised then... simply put, the fighting French would not have accepted a ridiculously small BEF aka the islanders fighting to the last drop of blood of the continentals' soldiers.

Sooo... The British should be raising minimum a similar army with both France and the USSR out of the war. Problem is -you don't need to be Clausewitz to understand this- 90 vs 150-200 divisions is a crazy challenge *and please spare me the ludicrous on paper hordes of colonials coming to the rescue and other fantasies*

In this scenario (and the US not involved), the *periphery you're talking about* is going to follow sooner or later like a ripe fruit (even without a fight, who knows). Spain, Turkey, the whole Mediterranean basin, the Middle East *and* the real India.

In other words we have the classic Mackinder's ideas at work. The "World Island" naturally swallowing its satellites.

Now let's drag the US into this epic struggle. I assume -like the British in WWI- they'd need minimum a 90 divisions army too eh. And that's when the huge bar brawl starts. Basically a 1:1 ratio in divisions. Countless options, ideas from this point. Interior lines vs maritime powers free to concentrate forces wherever they want etc etc

Or alternatively... we know the guy with the funny moustache in fact admired and just wanted to emulate the imperial British. *IF* he doesn't touch India he might propose "leave me alone in my World Island and I will let you enjoy your maritime empire"...

And that's of course the UNCONFESSED wet dream of the panzers' fetishists, assorted reactionaries and closet post WWII *neo* nazis XDXDXD

In the end, my friends, Dr Morell failed to fix the most important problem here: herr Hitler never stopped sniffing glue -tons of it- and thus he lead his "one thousand years reich" to utter annihilation. Serves these clowns right.

ORIGINAL: rico21

ORIGINAL: rico21

ORIGINAL: Alfred




Ah yes, a very good point but ...

How would the paratroopers find him? There is no schloss in Spain therefore someone would have to start looking for a castillo. There are an awful lot of castillos in Spain, it wasn't called Castilla y Leon for nothing.

Plus you can only pull that stunt once. If they do it in 1940 with Franco they won't be able to do it in 1943 with Mussolini.

It is a maxim of show business to let the audience want more. No point in showing the highlights of the show in the first 20 minutes. This ain't the Three Penny Opera with Mack the Knife.

Alfred

Send Fallschirmjagers in any spanish post office!

The Luftwaffe can also send a message!

ORIGINAL: Alfred

1. Not once have I mentioned your name.

warspite1

You said in opening your post:

All I see in this thread is thought bubble after thought bubble thrown out. None based on any reality. All demonstrating extreme amateur understanding of military considerations, completely overlooking the political, economic and geographic constraints which good professional military planners incorporate into action.

If you did not mean me (and certain others) then why the words None and All? Surely you know words have meaning right? Surely in digital communication, where there is no mannerisms or the chance to quickly pick up on possible areas of mis-understanding, properly explaining oneself is pretty important. Are you just lazy or do you not feel that proper communication is for you?

ORIGINAL: Alfred

2. Have I missed a claim from you that your comments are supported by commercial wargame designers? I don't think so which brings up the interesting psychological question; why are you taking credit for someone else's statement otherwise on what possible logical grounds can you find personal offence.

warspite1

In posting as you did, there is no reference to who made that claim; but I repeat you used the words None and All and in so doing just dismissed everyone else that had posted. That is what you said.

ORIGINAL: Alfred

3. Not once did I say I'm the only one who knows WWII. However I will say this for the first time ever. Overall you certainly don't know more than me.

warspite1

This has been mentioned too many times now. Your posting style betrays something else.

Do I know more than you? Do you know more than me? I have no idea and I have no room for such playground questions. If you know more than me (and quite clearly on some things you do) then fine. I can learn from your posts on those subjects. Same as you can from me - not that you would ever admit that of course.

ORIGINAL: Alfred

4. You don't hold copyright to ideas. Especially when you don't flesh them out with extensive specific supporting details. Perhaps you have not yet found them in a book. Augment your book reading with a visit to Spain to see first hand the terrain.

warspite1

And here is a classic example of your tone. I don't own copyright to ideas? Where did that nonsense come from? You can repeat what I've said all you like - believe it or not I generally take comfort in your affirming what I've said because I know you do know what you are talking about most of the time. But in saying All and None - if you understood what your words actually mean in the way you relate to people - you were effectively saying "this is what I think and everything else written previously is wrong". You see throwing words like ALL and NONE around mean something.

Just so arrogant.... firstly the 'blitz through Spain and Turkey' is Curtis Lemay's idea. He therefore has to provide the details (if he wants to defend his view and bring others around). It's not for me to tell him what he thinks. I've been asking him repeatedly to give a timeline and some detail. Once he's done that, I can provide detail of my own based on whether I think what he's saying sounds feasible or not. But I am not sitting here guessing what he's going to come up with am I?? Secondly thank you for telling me I haven't visited Spain. Funny, I thought I had. Care to tell me where else I have/haven't been??

ORIGINAL: Alfred

5. Essentially you believe you have been plagiarised.

warspite1

What a truly bizarre comment; one that betrays a total lack of understanding about what has just taken place. That statement is just wrong on every level.

ORIGINAL: Alfred

6. Yes, I remember that AE thread very well.

warspite1

Quite clearly you don't remember that thread at all.

ORIGINAL: Alfred

7. The post of mine you quote is not full of questions. Quite the opposite. But for the sake of argument, let's say it is full of questions. That would be just like your own posts. Hypocrisy at play here. That's now 2 to me, 0 to you.

warspite1

Firstly what's with the 1-0, 2-0 nonsense? How old are you? So at the end of this post if I say its 5-0 to me, triple stampsy's, no erases, do I win???? WTH is that all about?

Secondly, if you say there were no questions when you were (quite correctly) asking things like, Then what? and How long? (being just two of them) in trying to get detail on the Spanish operation then fine. I know what a question is and they were questions. If you say they weren't then we'll leave it there to avoid embarrassment.

I have no idea what non-point you are trying to make regarding me asking questions and hypocrisy - no clue whatsoever but I suspect it means something to you.

ORIGINAL: Alfred

8. Sum of us try to be concise, whilst still being thorough, in our communications.

warspite1

...Well aren't you the perfect communicator then? That was concise sarcasm. Is that comment better in terms of length?

ORIGINAL: Alfred

A very good exemplar of concise writing in this very thread is found in the poster who has simply said in several of his posts that they must be good pharmaceuticals. See, very concise and very clearly conveys to the reader that posters view on the subject.

warspite1

Yes and those comments, repeated, added so much to further the discussion didn't they?

ORIGINAL: Alfred

9. Several posters have made comments not a million miles from your own comments. Why the lack of petulance at them? You certainly haven't accused them of being arrogant.

warspite1

Do you think that may have something to do with the fact that in stating such they didn't self-importantly rubbish ALL previous comments as amateur, with None based in reality?

You see, I don't have copyright (stupid thing to suggest) - and there are people on here who's opinion I greatly respect. If they say the same thing as me - and you are right, there were one or two who did that on this thread (at least one acknowledged what I said), then its no problem, who cares? If you did it (which you did) then again, no problem, who cares? - because, as said, regardless of what I think of your communication problems, I do believe in general you know what you are talking about. All you had to do was explain yourself properly. Now, re-read what you wrote - which was directed to all and contained None and All - no exceptions, just your pronouncements on all previous commentary. But you won't because you can never accept you've done anything wrong.

ORIGINAL: rico21

ORIGINAL: rico21

ORIGINAL: rico21



Send Fallschirmjagers in any spanish post office!

The Luftwaffe can also send a message!

The Kriegsmarine too!

ORIGINAL: warspite1

For example I mentioned at the outset about the potential limitations of the German anti-shipping units – not ability, but number – and what that limitation meant for the actual Med War. But apparently this is not considered important to debate – despite the fact there is factual evidence to show how effective the Germans were….. but how stretched to.

They make more of them.

Stalin proved to be remarkably short-sighted when it came to the build-up to Barbarossa and who knows, he may have continued to be so in this alternate 1941. But as a wise man once said, past performance is no guarantee of the future. As said, Turkey – and specifically the Straits – was raised by the Soviets during and post the NS Pact. This is a BIG issue for the USSR - very big, survival big and pact or no pact, Hitler and Stalin do not trust each other.

No, there is no guarantee when Stalin would wake up and smell the coffee. But just look at what the Straits meant, look at the geographical position of Turkey. Look at what the Germans were doing. If I had to lay money on it, then yes I believe that this would be the straw that broke the camel’s back.

Let's see, he allows Germany to move its Polish border over 400 km closer to Moscow in 1939. He allows Germany to focus almost its entire armed forces against France and knock the only other major power on the continent out. Both of those moves far exceed the threat to Russia that German possession of the straits does.

Nevertheless, whatever he chooses to do works for the Germans.

So, forget Barbarossa, forget what the Soviets are doing. The US has told Japan, get out of China or you will be out of oil in 18 months maximum. And you believe that – even based on everything we know about Japan in 1941 - you believe they are going to simply exit China?

German action against Spain will telegraph that Barbarossa is off and the Japs will better wait to invade French Indochina. That was what triggered the embargo.

ORIGINAL: warspite1

I don’t understand what Rommel is doing at this point, why he is in Tripoli? and having fallen back from where?? And I'm sorry but I don’t get the de Gaulle reference either, but I'll ignore them for now and try and get started on the blitz through Spain and Turkey scenario.

Rommel knows what's coming. So, he will want to lure the 8th Army into Libya so it will be trapped there. De Gaulle was the one who harangued them into invading Syria.

So you believe the ‘blitz’ through Spain happens in 1940. When? How do you see this as coming about?

The defeat of France, in the timescale achieved, just isn’t expected by anyone. Here the Germans are in mid-June and French forces are being overrun everywhere. Reynaud hopes to get agreement for the government and as much of the military as possible to get to French North Africa, where General Nogues is itching to continue the fight. This would be based around the fleet (pretty much intact), an air force (essentially just as numerous as it was on May 10th) and as many of the circa 500,000 troops still free from German capture as would be possible to get away – plus whatever units are in other overseas territories. But Petain and Weygand have other ideas.

Hitler can’t believe his luck. He desperately wants to come to an agreement – one that will give the French a degree of sovereignty and so give French overseas possessions a legitimate government to rally to – and stay out of the clutches of Britain - but at the same time a large part of Northern France will be occupied in order to give the Germans a base from which to take the war to the British.

An armistice is agreed that takes effect on the 25th June 1940.

So, first questions/thoughts.

1. Everything has happened very fast since May 10th, and even quicker since the start of June. So what happens now? And I hope we can be realistic in timescales here. Hitler won't (as per historical) get his head around what is happening to the French, much less plan out his next moves. So he doesn't give his mind to this until the armistice is signed. Agreed?

2. In deciding on this Mediterranean strategy, are you suggesting that Hitler immediately realises that Britain can’t be invaded?

3. Presumably the German army and air force need time for rest and refit, replenishment etc.

4. Hitler will also need his generals to come up with plans for this Mediterranean strategy. Hitler will need to see Franco as clearly (as in real life) his initial wish would be for Franco to join the Axis.

5. We know that Franco can’t/won’t agree to Hitler’s request. So when are the German army sufficiently recuperated to take up their next assignment? What are we talking about – late July / early August?

6. But there is now a potential problem. For Operation Felix the thin corridor in Western France was no issue for a German army being invited in to Spain. But for the German blitz, that means a very narrow, mountainous front for the Spanish to defend. Thoughts?

7. What is happening in Britain at this point? There are no preparations being made for Sea Lion (and that is a welcome saving for Germany because the requisitioning of so many barges (largely from the River Rhine) was to have an adverse impact on the German economy that won’t now happen.

8. But this leaves Britain to re-build largely un-molested. Getting wind of German troop movements to southwest France, it seems likely that two things will happen. A) Reinforcement of Gibraltar with aircraft and troops. B) As British units are brought back up to strength, a reserve can be brought together to assist the Spanish as soon as the Germans set foot in the peninsular. Spanish Morocco could be used as a base for operations. The Canaries and the Balearics could be occupied by British troops, aircraft and a naval presence.

9. With a battle to be fought for Spain/Gibraltar, ill-advised side shows like Menace likely won’t happen in September.

10. So let’s say it’s July 1940. What do you envisage is happening in the Mediterranean east of Gibraltar?

As I said at the start, this is the plan from the beginning. Once Vichy is in place, overwhelming force will be made ready for Spain. They will have the rest of the Summer and Fall to complete the operation.

Spain is at peace - with a peace-time army. Once invaded they may be too far gone to even get their reserves called up.

Contrary to some other poster, the Germans will achieve strategic surprise. How on Earth could the Spanish know what was coming?

And the narrow frontage is no worse than invading France through the Ardennes - bypassing the Maginot line.

In North Africa, the Italians know what is coming, so they fall back out of the trap that they were in for Compass.

What is the UK doing? They barely got their BEF back - without heavy equipment. They don't know Sealion is off.