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cookie monster,

Understood and I don't expect to waltz in, build the airfield and move on Guadalcanal a week later. In fact I am not sure it matters how quickly I finish the field. What matters is that I open up another front against the Japanese, and that the new base can be supported by air from Luganville.

If Blackwatch responds then I get a battle in an area which is closer to the USA than Timor, with forces that are currently not engaged. If he does not respond then I build the base up more quickly and move to the next island, sooner or later I will force an engagement this way.

I have to keep strong forces in the Noumea area, right now there are or so planes there, because of the strategic importance of the location. Sitting on the defensive has been necissary because I have not been strong enough to attack but that will change as the months go by. Pressure in the Solomons helps Java, for example there are 100 Betties supressing Port Moresby, if I do this they will stay in Rabaul or come South to Guadalcanal which is good for me, instead of smashing up Koepang which would create a real problem.

Not much action on April 20th.

Phillipines are down to 17,500 supply at Clark, Mindano is up to nearly 22,000 island wide, I am putting some bombers and supply transport aircraft there. The intention is to drag things out as long as possible on Luzon by using air supply and bomber support from further South.

Blackwatch has given up in Java and is not even bombing there, the same thing has happened in Burma. I believe he will focus on the Phillipines and then bring the 150,000 men and 150 aircraft from there to smash Java.

The convoy which was carrying the 5th division is moving again, its now between Moulmien and Victoria Point. The RN CVs are moving to hit it again, we will see what happens.

US B17s are moving into Soebaja along with fighters. Since the Japanese will not run convoys in range of anything but Hudsons its time to take the fight to them. I don't plan to fly against heavily defended bases but Soebaja is in range of Toboali, Palembang, Batavia, Balikpapan, Samarinda, and may be in range of Tarakan and Kuching, no map right now so I can't count it out. I figure I can hit where the Japanese are not and force him to lose resources or spread out his fighters or both.

I am also putting subs on mine laying mission for Soerbaja to make bombarding the place a bit more dangerous, and I am expanding the airfield at Malang.

US BBs and other ships and troops are leaving the West Coast heading for Noumea, I plan to move into a dot island North of Luganville in July, prep for that is starting.

I plan to move some engineers from India to the Broome area along with a strong force of the RN. These will group up with 2 Dutch base forces and an Aussie brigade and move onto the island of Raba (if I am remembering the right island) 4 hexes from Kendari and Amboina, and build it up. Its a level 1 airfield so I can CAP it the day the transports arrive and then get into a serious battle. This plan may be aborted by other circumstances.

The British tangle with some Oscars over Lashio and shoot down 6. The RAF at Myitikynia is both strong and experienced and no Hurricanes were lost.

Fleet Air Arm swordfish sunk 2 PGs that were escorting an empty Japanese convoy South past Victoria point, the RN is now withdrawing for fuel and maintance after stopping the redeployment of the Japanese 5th division. I suspect the 5th is now moving overland to Thai ports for embarkation at a safer local.

In 90 days the second Chindits arrive and they will both be dropped on Lashio to take the place, that will mark the start of the British offensive in Burma.

More logistics have started moving for the moves into the Solomons and the Islands North West of Timor. It will be months before these go off, but the preperation is starting now, with convoys on the move, supplies and units being gathered, and objectives bieng set.

In the Phillipines I may have found a way to extend the battle a bit longer. Legaspi is now supplying the 2 units that have been holding the line at Naga, and the Japanese don't watch Legaspi very closely. So I am going to try and get 20,000 supply into the place and then rotate units down from Clark, have them supply and reinforce and then move them back. This won't completely solve my supply problem but it will extend the battle a bit longer and every day helps. Legaspi also has an intact airfield and a baseforce in good health so I may be able to put enough CAP over the ships to hold off the Japanese naval attacks.

Java is quiet except for the occasional Hudson bombing a Japanese merchant ship off Batavia. There are now B17s at Soerbaja and Malang, they are resting this turn but will go into action soon.

The Japanese do seem to consider Malang a threat now, a force of bombers escorted by Zeros hit the place, they met 12 Wildcats and the result was two bombers shot down, a couple of hits on the airfield and a Wildcat lost to ops losses. This is a minor fight for both of us, but its good for the Allies since it uses the 4F4 replacement pool which has hundreds of planes in it.

At Sea we have already covered the RN. US CVs are at Pearl upgrading along with thier escorts. US BBs are heding to Noumea but weeks away. A Cruiser TF with a lot of steaming induces sys damage is passing South of Australia on its way to a month or more of repairs at Sydney. A smaller Cruiser TF is going to be formed from ships that are finishing up repairs at Sydney and the British are going to form a Cruiser TF to be based at Broome.

Right now the Allies have no active Surface combat TFs outside the Bay of Bengal. By June they will have:

A US BB TF at Noumea
A fast cruiser TF at Noumea
A fast cruiser TF at Broome

A 4 CV group which may head to Noumea as distant cover for the landings

A British combat fleet with BBs and CVs that may operate out of Broome for a bit, or may stay in the Bay of Bengal

This is a look at my China situation and also a continuation of the China thread that discussed China supply. Jim Burns posted some insightful analysis of Chinese supply and then refrenced his own fight for China, showing how the lack of supply was strangling the Chinese.

My situation is different, and the "Imperialism" game is months further along then Jim's but that said my results seem to contradict Jim's analysis of Chinese supply. I'm not interested in arguement, but I would like to understand why our results are so different.

The current situation April 28, 1942

China is engaged in battles with the Japanese all along the front from Yenen in the North to Kwielin in the South. Chengting is cut off by the Japanese and Kwielin is cut off by the Chinese. The Supply situation in Chengting is bad but not a disaster and 10 transports are flying supply into the city. There is a relief force on the way as well, on the map its just moving onto the rail line North of the Homan junction.

The numbers in Black on the map are supply, which I wrote down, and the numbers in green are troops which are from memory. Any palce that does not have troops numbers has 1-3 units and less than 20,000 troops, most are 1 unit and 3-7,000.







At Yenen the Chinese launched a deliberate assualt on the 27th that forced the retreat of one Japanese brigade.

Ground combat at Yenen

Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 28023 troops, 210 guns, 0 vehicles
Defending force 22950 troops, 157 guns, 0 vehicle
Allied assault odds: 2 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
274 casualties reported
Guns lost 3
Allied ground losses:
594 casualties reported
Guns lost 20
Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Normally I would stop and bombard but since he has less troops this turn I am going to try again. The Supply situation at Yenen is good, most units are in or near full supply.

At Kweilin the Chinese launched a deliberate attack and took the base back on April 23rd:

Ground combat at Kweilin
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 77675 troops, 592 guns, 0 vehicles
Defending force 25953 troops, 211 guns, 13 vehicles
Allied assault odds: 19 to 1 (fort level 0)
Allied forces CAPTURE Kweilin base !!!

Japanese ground losses:
714 casualties reported
Guns lost 10
Vehicles lost 2

Allied ground losses:
544 casualties reported
Guns lost 13

However they burned up most of their supply doing it, and on the 27th a similar attack did not go so well.

Ground combat at Kweilin
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 76132 troops, 545 guns, 0 vehicles
Defending force 22735 troops, 126 guns, 9 vehicles
Allied assault odds: 6 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
408 casualties reported
Guns lost 14
Allied ground losses:
544 casualties reported
Guns lost 22

Not too bad but not too good, there was some bombardment in between but that causes tens of casualties. The supply situation for the Chinese at Kweilin is not so great, but units at Wuchow and Hengchow seem to resupply quickly so I am rotating units in and out of the Kweilin hex to build them up. This is working but slowly, the Japanese were defending with 27,000 troops now they are using a bit over 22,000 but its still going to be a long time before they fall apart.

As can be seen on the map Changsha has great supply, and the Chinese units there are at full supply and inflicting hundereds of casualties on the Japanese every turn they bombard. The Japanese are inflicting tens of casualties in return, leading me to believe that they are not in full supply.

At Ichang and the Homan Junction both sides are tired, the bombardment attacks do not kill lots of troops but Chinese supply is still pretty decent. Again the Chinese inflict more casualties than the Japanese so I suspect Chinese supply is better.

As mentioned Units in Wuchow resupply quicky, but I may start using Hengchow as my R&R base since it can draw supply from Changsha and that may increase the replacement rate. Homan aslo has good supply, a situation that improved when I moved Chang to the City.

The Chinese airforce is in good shape, Japanese airpower is elsewhere and Blackwatch has never tried to use air to destroy China. At this point I think its much too late for him to try especially given the rapidly growing strength of the RAF in Burma, which could easily interviene and grind the Japanese airforce up.

The Chinese have a bit over 2,000 squads in the replacement pool, they have used over 800 so far which is pretty good. Only 2 Chinese units have been destroyed, both parts of a corps that I split up early to raid, they are back now and the corps will re-form shortly.

All the SE Asia Chinese are in SE Asia now with the exceptions of one division I sent to Wuchow, and one that is gaurding Yunan. Some of them are in Burma but they will be pulled to Calcutta for refit, two are already in India. I very strongly reccomend doing this as these units saved Burma and now they are building strength using British supply and Chinese re-inforcement pools which is a great combination.

Going back to my question about Jim's analysis at the top, this situation is impossible according to Jim. His math shows that the Chinese should run out of supply pretty quickly, and by now I should be short everwhere. Apperantly this is actually happening to him.

On the production side:

I do have the Burma road open, but so does Jim.
I have about 60 transport planes flying supply to China, this number goes up and down some as I aslo transport ground units using these planes.
Chungking and Wuchow are producing, but Changsha is not and niether is Yenen or Chengting, on the other hand the Japanese are not getting the Chengting oil either.
The Japanese do not have a large bomber force hitting Chinese supply, and never have.

On the consuption side:
Close to 600,000 Chinese are fighting all the time bombarding or assualting and they have been since late December. The number of troops in action is a bit higher now that it has been at times but its never been less than 400,000.
The Chinese airforce is nearly at full strength and flies as often as the Chinese ever do, so its consuming significant supply.



On the re-inforcement side I am sure that Chinese units in cities with less than 20,000 supply have been growing, and as I said the Chinese have used up over 800 infantry squads. We have played just under 200 days of game and the Chinese are pulling 4 squads a day.

Explainations:

I am short on these but here is what I think so far:

Units that are low on supply seem to use supply more efficiently, so they still fight pretty well even in the red. I happily fight in the red if I think I will win.

Supply does not move evenly, the fact that the road and rail nets are cut in so many places is affecting Japanese supply and weakening thier attacks.

I am not sure what else, ideas?

I re-analzed Jim Burns numbers in China and found using his numbers that the supply situation isn't nearly as bleak as he first proposed....


From the China Solution Thread....

According to Jim Burns...
No, if you look over the numbers China is short as soon as daily consumption costs go up and the front three cities are occupied. No full scale attack, no major Japanese effort.

Max best case Chinese supply production 5270.

Max best case Chinese supply production after three bases occupied 3825.

Minimum daily supply needed to feed standing army under land bombardment 4000.

Daily air units supply consumption?
Daily base repairs?
Daily base construction?
Supply lost to enemy bombardments?
Other supply costs?

Shortfall well over 200 supplies a day.

Nowhere near enough and all Japan did was move into three bases and bombard...

My analysis...

quote:
China starts with 65,140 supply points on map (Scenario 15) divided by your calculated shortage of 200 points China should be completely out of supply in 325 days, if you look at the raw numbers as you suggest. However people are not finding this to be the case. We will find out in a moment...

EDIT: I failed to account for the 59629 supply points already in the units

What you seem to be forgetting that your initial post indicated that 2/3rds of the chinese army would be engaged. For this to happen it sounds like a pretty heavy investment of Japanese resources...so lets look at the math a different way...taking into account the minimal investment that Japan has to make to doom China that you suggest.

Assuming the losses you propose China has 3825 supply points per day income.

It needs 2000 per day to support a standing army according to your math...Of that 2000 per day consumption lets say that 5 corps and 1 HQ are used to defend the three hexes that japan is bombarding according to your estimate of what japan is needs to do to doom china.

On average those 15 corps need 325 sp/day (650*15/30) and the three HQ need 19sp/day (190*3/30) for a total of 344 sp/day. Subtract this from 2000 leaves 1656. So the unengaged Chinese army consumes 1656 sp/day of the 3825 supply points leaving 2169 supply points per day.

So now the engaged 15 corps and 3 HQ's will burn 4 times that amount because of combat (344*4) giving there consumption as 1376. 2169-1376 provides China with a surplus of 793 supply points per day. So to break even China is free to commit an additional 9 corps to combat before they go negative. 650*9/30=195*4(Combat usage)=780sp/day.

These questions:

1) Do units with a large number of artillery tubes consume more supply during bombardment..I think in general the chinese are weak in artillery.

2) Doesnt WITP have the degradation of supply over distances from the source? In other words, is not supply consumed in moving the supply forward? This is much worse cross country and through jungle as I recall. I had been laboring under the assumption that rail was most efficient, then road, then trail..etc etc. As a consuequence, forces well away from supply sources will really strain the system unless they stay to the rail links. Lets say for eg, a unit is consuming 100 per day but the supply is reaching it at only 25% efficiency..so it is really consuming 400/day..etc etc. A good example in UV was trying to supply units in New guinea by trail..it never worked very well.

Also

3) Doesnt unit build-up consume some supply?

The situation in the Phillipines is slowly getting worse, but I am looking for ways to make it better.

The stalemate at Clark continues, and the Americans and Phillipino troops keep inflicting more casualties than they take in the daily bombardment battle. But except for a small amount coming in by air supply is nolonger getting through, they are down to 16,000 and reducing stocks by 500-600 a day, which means they will start eating shoe leather in the end of May. The Japanese have put a major effort into stopping shipping from reaching Manila and I can't re-open the port.

Legaspi has about 4,000 supply and some AKs are unloading there under the cover of a dozen F4F3s.





So I am going to try a local attack to break the Japanese blockade at Naga. The numbers of troops we have is the same, but I think mine are better quality and in better supply. In addition I have 2 tank battalions coming down from Clark and hopefully the B26s at Cagayan will finally fly and bomb the damn Japanese.

If I can retake Naga then I think supply will start to drift North, or I can rotate units down to get supplied there and then send them back. If I am really lucky maybe I can even drive the Japanese into the sea.

More supply is on its way to Legaspi, if this works then the Phillipines may be able to hang on for quite a while. If not then he Japanese will go back on the offensive after Luzon finally collapses which will cause big battles in Java in June and July, right about the time the Americans move North into the Solomons and the British start to boost the pressure on Burma.

Maybe you could send in single DD TFs to fast transport in supply from staging points on Mindanao. Also, you could stop bombarding. It would save on supply and enhance your defensive position should he launch any deliberate attacks.

I'm Jim's opponent, Tom, and I posted some informations on my situation in the China thread but you may prefer answer here.
Could somebody else confirm Cap Mandrake point 2?I believe he is right but I'm surprised nobody mentions degradations of supplies over distance when speaking of the supply issue in China.

I am sure # 2 is there, and I think its at work in Kwielin, see my posts about supplying the Chinese army there.

In China the Yenen army just forced the last of the Japanese out of the city, they retreated in the direction of Tautung. The Chinese will pursue, and two more Chinese corps and an HQ have started marching to Yenen, they will arrive in June I think. Everything else is the usual stalemate, down in Kwielin I switched everyone to bombard, but there is an engineer unit with no arty, and it stays on deliberate attack and goes in alone. Needless to say it lost, this is the second time I have done this, gotta be more careful.

In the Phillipines the F4F3s have been unable to stop or even slow the Japanese bombers at Legaspi, I am sending some F4Fs hopefully that can do a better job. The armor is still moving in, the attack will go in a few days.

Bad weather has pretty much stopped the British bombing/training program in Burma. More troops are on the move for the eventual offensive, but now its all about logistics, not combat.

The Japanese have started bombing supply convoys in the ports of Koepang and Lautem, they are running into heavy CAP this turn Japan lost 26 planes to something like 4 or 8 Allied.

It's now May 1st 1942 at last the British can upgrade.

I took a look at the British air units and I am going to upgrade somewhat slowly. There are 75 Beauforts in the pool and if I turn the British Vildabeests into Beauforts then I will strain the pool. Right now they are happily bombing Japanese in Burma and building up experience and I would rather draw from the Vildabeest pool to cover the ops losses. I am doing the same thing with Blenhiem Is, Wirraways, and some of my other obsolete planes. Right now almost every single engine plane in India is based forward and build up xp by bombing Japanese in Burma, since they are doing fine flying obsolete crates who am I to argue? And if Zeros show up the Lysander groups that are in the high 70's can switch to Hurricanes and the Vildabeests to Beauforts. The only exceptions to this are the Sea Gladiators which are now Fulmars and the Blenhiem night fighters which are now Beaufighters.

There is one other big change recently, 40,000 Japanese have dissapeared from Clark Field. They are either resting or being loaded onto transports. If the Japanese take 40,000 men from Luzon and another 40k from Burma they can put an 80,000 man force ashore somewhere and that could cause serious problems. If I am really lucky he will go for Timor, but its more likely that he will try to knock over Java or maybe Davao.

Long term planning for pushes in Burma and the Solomons continue. Shorter term the Royal Navy is starting a training cruise that will end with 15" shells raining down on Sabang.


Soerbaja has been sending a lot of bombers out every day. B17s hit the oil ports around the NEI, switching targets every day or two to avoid enemy fighters, and twin engine bombers with large fighter escort have been hitting the Japanese base at Kragen. When its leveled they will go after another one.

The problem with this hectic pace is supplying it. I have started moving more convoys towards Java and the port at Malang is being enlarged but so much supply is being burned that the Allies are going to have to send ships into Soerbaja. Its a bit risky but if it works then a higher tempo of offensive operations will be possible.


Here is an interesting question: The Japanese continue to conserve aircraft, Zeros are seldom seen, they don't fight for control of the air over Java or Burma and they make no effort to win complete control of the Phillipine airspace either. There are a large number of training missions going on, bombing isolated units, that kind of thing. Is Japan supply constrained? have they started to run out of good pilots? I am not sure, but the low level of Japanese activity makes me wonder.

You say you are long term planning for a push in the Salomon. I don't know what is currently the situation there, but with two CV lost it must be VERY long term planning[;)].
I think you have a wonderfull position in the DEI.If you can delay in Java and keep Timor by fall 42 you can start what the allies did in the Salomons and NG: a landing campaign under their powerfull land based aircover.But with a more important strategic goal: the oil fields!! You need to keep PM too if you want to feed the battle easily in the DEI.
I don't think you can keep Soerabaja (if you succeed the game is already won) but holding the line Timor-Darwin-PM is perfectly possible, given that his troops have still a lot of work to achieve elsewhere, it's a highway to the oil fields and a very good place to start the attrition phase even without CV superiority.
I only play Japs and I don't like your opponent situation at all, even with so many allied capital ships sunk.You can't do much at sea for a while but you have so many possibilities by land [X(] it shouldn't worry you[:)]

Nemrod,

Your mostly right about the Solomons. I have a big base built up at Luganville, and the first landing will be onto a dot island 4 hexes away with lots of cover from P40Bs and Es that I have been saving up for the operation. After that gets to a level 2 airfield I will move to another dot that is 2 hexes closer and if memory serves will get me into LBA range of Lunga.

After that there will be more slow moving efforts. It's not fast but its pressure.

In the NEI your right on the money. I am going to make Soerbaja as difficult as possible for Japan but I doubt I can hold it.

Unfortunately Port Moresby is impossible for me to support right now, so the supply and other stuff going into the NEI is mostly coming from India. Still I may be able to stop the Japanese with the airforce I have there, its powerful, high quality and draws on a number of different replacement pools so its relatively easy to keep it strong.

Hi Tom,

Thanks again for a great AAR. I like your's best on the forum. I also like the Fear & Loathing and Admiral Spruance's older one. (I'd like Raver's and Luskans if they posted more often. I can't get a feel for their overall war situation)

I sure hope this AAR continues. I get the feeling that your opponent isn't trying very hard. Maybe you're just an exceptional opponent, but you seem to be beating the pants off your opposition. I hope he's got some plans in motion, because it's May 1st, and you hold Java, Timor, PI and a bit of Burma. I don't think he can recover. Even if he takes on one theatre at a time, you'll be going on the offensive just about the time he cleans up the DEI. He won't have time to build a strong defence with newly won territory.

I really like the way you post things. You write short paragraphs on what's important and relevant cuts from the combat display. It's very eye pleasing.

If you get a chance, could you post a bit on your overall situation? Maybe a full map post showing the full extent of Japans advance. And maybe a list of ship losses (maybe specific capital ships, but no need for lots of detail on merchies and such). I'd also like to see how many planes (maybe even by type) you've each lost. I'm betting you're ahead on plane points.

Thanks again for a very entertaining AAR.

bc

I'm not ahead on planes though I am closing the gap, near the beginning of each month I post the intel screen and the changes. Here is the aircraft loss picture, I held the line with Wirraways at one point so a lot of them died and you can see that the P39 takes heavy losses when it goes into combat though mine have won a few.

The Japanese mostly fight with Oscars but the really big battle involve zeros. I have worked hard to keep the Warhawks and Tomahawks out of danger and that has kept their loss rate lower allowing the replacements to catch up though I still don't have any in the pool

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

It's now May 1st 1942 at last the British can upgrade.

I took a look at the British air units and I am going to upgrade somewhat slowly. There are 75 Beauforts in the pool and if I turn the British Vildabeests into Beauforts then I will strain the pool. Right now they are happily bombing Japanese in Burma and building up experience and I would rather draw from the Vildabeest pool to cover the ops losses. I am doing the same thing with Blenhiem Is, Wirraways, and some of my other obsolete planes.

One little suggestion.
While Vildebeest's to train need to attack, therefore to sustain op losses, LBs can do the 'supply training'.
That's when you set them to 'supply transport' and as destination you set the same hex. Op looses are almost zero and experience goes up almost as fast as if attacking. It just works wonders.
Bottom line, I use crap planes for training too if they are F or FB, but if I can get LB there's no need to use the shitty ones, you can upgrade to your favorite type and 'supply train' it (I can't rememeber who found this out, it's one of our fellow forumers).
Trust me, it works [;)]

ooh that is an interesting tip.

Right now I am bombing the crap out of Baker Island for training, but I will have to try the supply run.

Try the night bombing with the 4Es.....it works greatly! Isn't true MC?[:@]

ORIGINAL: Gen.Hoepner

Try the night bombing with the 4Es.....it works greatly! Isn't true MC?[:@]

[:D] It does indeed [:D]

There is actually a cons to that too. You need - literally - hundreds of bombers. The score ratio in my experience vs. my dear General [;)] is 10-15:1
But hey, I have hundreds!! [:D] [:D] [:D]