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ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

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The State of Pennsylvania has ordered all 'non-life-sustaining businesses' in Pennsylvania to close, and this will be enforced by citations, fines, or license suspensions. Attached is the list of what categories of businesses are allowed to be open. https://dig.abclocal.go.com/wpvi/pdf/20 ... siness.pdf Evidently the voluntary closures weren't enough.

Thanks for all the posts, gentlemen. It is interesting to see how this is going around the world.

Catching up on the posts got me thinking: I don't go out of my way to avoid other people and I don't see other people avoiding me. I wouldn't make a face at someone getting near my daughter, for instance (not that there's anything wrong with that). I have also seen zero surfaces wiped, other than say a table being wiped at a restaurant. That said, most people are wearing masks and I have have yet to see anyone cough or sneeze in my presence. Although some of this is cultural, such as there is no sense of personal space in Korea like we have in the U.S., I think some of it may be attributed to confidence in the system and society, as in the government tracking the carriers (and not relying on people's testimony as to where they've been), following up with people that have been in contact with carriers, and expecting people who should be self-quarantining to be self-quarantining.

The government here has allowed all businesses to stay open (as far as I know--definitely restaurants and bars are open). State schools are on track to re-open on April 6 and my daughter will be attending a private pre-school starting this Monday, March 23. There have been zero deaths in Seoul, a city of 11 million people. I'm hoping it stays that way.

Anyway, just some anecdotal musings from a guy making his way in Korea, not a published scientific paper or anything.

Oh, and I opened my bottle of Michter's Rye the other night as the missus and I sat down to watch "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood" on Korean Netflix. I can highly recommend that libation, and the movie wasn't too bad, either.

Stay safe.

Cheers,
CB

ORIGINAL: witpqs

snip for length

Today more than 1,000 deaths were reported from this disease. With the possible exception of early on in a place where numbers might have been misreported or poorly reported, this was the first day with deaths over 1,000. Presumably the number of deaths per day will continue to increase for some period.

This study makes reference to other studies which conclusions it agrees with. A reasonable figure of deaths worldwide from the flu is about 389,000 per year.

The number of 1,079 deaths reported so far today is just above that rate. For whatever this perspective is worth, the death rate is at the moment about equal to the flu and continued increases at the recent rate of change would put it well beyond the flu.

May I politely suggest that looking at per diem numbers in isolation does not provide an accurate statistical comparison*.

It is becoming the accepted wisdom that covid-19 started in about mid October in Wuhan. Although there are doubters, the PRC is saying they are past the bell after 5 months. So a more useful comparison would be a figure of 6 months, or indeed 12 months.

We have an almost 6 month figure for covid-19, the WHO reports at time of writing are:

226,800 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 9,500 deaths.

To get an annual figure that will probably be an over-estimate, let's quadruple that to around 38,000.

There you have it - the flu is a ten times worse killer than covid-19.


Edit: *- it may be useful say for predicting acute care requirements for limited periods.

Ridiculous

Check out swine flu if you love numbers dead.

ORIGINAL: Ian R

ORIGINAL: witpqs

snip for length

Today more than 1,000 deaths were reported from this disease. With the possible exception of early on in a place where numbers might have been misreported or poorly reported, this was the first day with deaths over 1,000. Presumably the number of deaths per day will continue to increase for some period.

This study makes reference to other studies which conclusions it agrees with. A reasonable figure of deaths worldwide from the flu is about 389,000 per year.

The number of 1,079 deaths reported so far today is just above that rate. For whatever this perspective is worth, the death rate is at the moment about equal to the flu and continued increases at the recent rate of change would put it well beyond the flu.

May I politely suggest that looking at per diem numbers in isolation does not provide an accurate statistical comparison*.

It is becoming the accepted wisdom that covid-19 started in about mid October in Wuhan. Although there are doubters, the PRC is saying they are past the bell after 5 months. So a more useful comparison would be a figure of 6 months, or indeed 12 months.

We have an almost 6 month figure for covid-19, the WHO reports at time of writing are:

226,800 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 9,500 deaths.

To get an annual figure that will probably be an over-estimate, let's quadruple that to around 38,000.

There you have it - the flu is a ten times worse killer than covid-19.


Edit: *- it may be useful say for predicting acute care requirements for limited periods.

Flu is far more dangerous. So more contagious also.

I provide this link for information only. I have no training in medicine, but it was an interesting read:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/

As an Engineer I understand the merits of having accurate data to asses a problem.

An older article but you can see how the system in China made things worse:

In Coronavirus Fight, China Sidelines an Ally: Its Own People
The outbreak has exposed the powerlessness of private charities, civic groups and others who could help the effort but whom the Communist Party considers rivals.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/18/busi ... plies.html

ORIGINAL: Nomad

I provide this link for information only. I have no training in medicine, but it was an interesting read:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/

As an Engineer I understand the merits of having accurate data to asses a problem.

A very good article. Thank you for posting it.

Something that will help put things into perspective, it gives the total deaths but not as a percentage of the total affected population:

Visualizing the History of Pandemics

Published on March 14, 2020

The History of Pandemics by Death Toll
The History of Pandemics

Pan·dem·ic /panˈdemik/ (of a disease) prevalent over a whole country or the world.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/histor ... lqflIlMvUU

May I politely suggest that looking at per diem numbers in isolation does not provide an accurate statistical comparison*.

It is becoming the accepted wisdom that covid-19 started in about mid October in Wuhan. Although there are doubters, the PRC is saying they are past the bell after 5 months. So a more useful comparison would be a figure of 6 months, or indeed 12 months.

We have an almost 6 month figure for covid-19, the WHO reports at time of writing are:

226,800 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 9,500 deaths.

To get an annual figure that will probably be an over-estimate, let's quadruple that to around 38,000.

There you have it - the flu is a ten times worse killer than covid-19.

I think we're still early, especially as we have an accelerating rate of deaths per day world wide. In order for your 38,000 to be an overestimate, it means that the rate of deaths per day has to make a sudden shift downwards within a month. I'm not sure why you would think that that would happen given this trend:

The second derivative of our current data tracking is still unambiguously above 0. They'd have to flatten this immediately to not exceed your 38,000 target. I find this to be very, very optimistic in a statistical analysis sense. Given that there'd still be a tail of sub 1,000 deaths per day, it seems even less likely that we wouldn't exceed 38,000. Any minor increase in deaths per day for the next 10-15 days will see 38,000 achieved in less than a month.

It's only been 3 hours since your post and we've seen confirmed cases go up by over 20,000 (246,020) and deaths go up by 500 (10,049).

If we *did* have a turn around like that, I'd be hard pressed to believe any argument that says the measures taken were not a big factor in that turn around.




EDIT:

So a more useful comparison would be a figure of 6 months

I'm not sure this is actually a good comparison with influenza. I might be mistaken but I don't think incidents of influenza don't typically hit 0 for a region (and definitely not for the world), while Covid-19 has to start from nothing.

ORIGINAL: tolsdorff

and I was outside today for 7 hours, cycling. And yesterday, and the day before that. (I am 47, and feel great, A LOT BETTER than anyone staying inside for whatever reason)
I greet a lot of people that also apparently risk their lives at great personal cost, going outside and enjoy a walk or a bicycle ride. I have contact with them, even touch them (WOW). Shake hands. I should be dead by now I guess. But I am not, nor are they.

These ignorants kill people.
The younger ones are not affected by this virus as the elder so be happy to be just 47,.
Going out handshaking is exactly what should be stopped to safe the Old People, Grandmas and Granddads
Did you tolsdorff ever see someone suffocate even with all medical care available. It is not a nice experience I can tell you.
I worked for 30 years in ICU on the pulmonary ward and I know what I am talking of.
So If you want to see piles of burning corps go on shaking hands-- in Italy the Army transports them in the night out of the cities.

In applying the paper's findings to the forecast temperatures and humidity, the authors concluded that the arrival of summer and rainy seasons in the Northern Hemisphere can "effectively reduce the transmission of COVID-19," while the risk for the continued spread of the illness will remain in some countries in the Southern Hemisphere.
.
.
.
Some experts are also pointing to the increased amount of UV rays from the sun the Northern Hemisphere will be subject to this time of year as a factor that could slow the virus.

"The sun angle changes significantly from the equinox to the solstice," AccuWeather meteorologist and Astronomy blogger Dave Samuhel explained. "That means a significant additional amount of solar radiation, or insolation, reaches the ground."

UV light has been proven to kill other strains from the coronavirus family, like SARS and MERS, but there isn't research yet showing the same is true for SARS-CoV-2.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-w ... -19/703418

ORIGINAL: Ian R

ORIGINAL: witpqs

snip for length

Today more than 1,000 deaths were reported from this disease. With the possible exception of early on in a place where numbers might have been misreported or poorly reported, this was the first day with deaths over 1,000. Presumably the number of deaths per day will continue to increase for some period.

This study makes reference to other studies which conclusions it agrees with. A reasonable figure of deaths worldwide from the flu is about 389,000 per year.

The number of 1,079 deaths reported so far today is just above that rate. For whatever this perspective is worth, the death rate is at the moment about equal to the flu and continued increases at the recent rate of change would put it well beyond the flu.

May I politely suggest that looking at per diem numbers in isolation does not provide an accurate statistical comparison*.

It is becoming the accepted wisdom that covid-19 started in about mid October in Wuhan. Although there are doubters, the PRC is saying they are past the bell after 5 months. So a more useful comparison would be a figure of 6 months, or indeed 12 months.

We have an almost 6 month figure for covid-19, the WHO reports at time of writing are:

226,800 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 9,500 deaths.

To get an annual figure that will probably be an over-estimate, let's quadruple that to around 38,000.

There you have it - the flu is a ten times worse killer than covid-19.


Edit: *- it may be useful say for predicting acute care requirements for limited periods.

What is missing in this type of comparison you’re making is the extension of this into new areas. If it started simultaneously in all areas, and the flu does in the north and south during the cold seasons there, numbers would be much higher.

We are seeing the beginning still in some areas, so it’ll be another 3-4 months before we know much about how bad this will be, and I would trust the scientists who are writing papers about the unchecked spread.

If you don’t just take out a calculator and multiply the lowest mortality rate estimate of 0.5% x say 3.5 billion, or half the world’s population. That is about the amount who, without mitigation measures, would need to catch this to get herd immunity.

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Nomad

I provide this link for information only. I have no training in medicine, but it was an interesting read:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/

As an Engineer I understand the merits of having accurate data to asses a problem.

A very good article. Thank you for posting it.

Mark Lipsitch (also an epidemiologist) wrote a rebuttal on the same site: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/we- ... -covid-19/


My Two Cents (and all the bias within), one thing I really disliked about Dr. Ioannidis' article was the rather callous depiction of the 1918 influenza pandemic.

In the most pessimistic scenario, which I do not espouse, if the new coronavirus infects 60% of the global population and 1% of the infected people die, that will translate into more than 40 million deaths globally, matching the 1918 influenza pandemic.

The vast majority of this hecatomb would be people with limited life expectancies. That’s in contrast to 1918, when many young people died.

One can only hope that, much like in 1918, life will continue. Conversely, with lockdowns of months, if not years, life largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake.

My initial reaction was a "fuck this guy" because IMO avoiding the death toll of the 1918 should be a goal and if 40 million people die to Covid-19 that would be a huge tragedy and suggesting the loss of life would be less severe because it affects mostly "people with limited life expectancies" seemed unnecessarily cold. Yes "life will continue" but I don't think any serious person suggests that this is an extinction event for humanity.

For a bit of levity, watch the video for when the woman sneezes!

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=658035571623118

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

99% of patients killed by Coronavirus in Italy had existing illnesses, new study finds
19 March 2020
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... finds.html

"Research into 355 deaths found that only three (0.8%) had no other illnesses

Nearly half of them - 48.5% - already had three or even more health conditions

Another 25.6% had two other 'pathologies', while 25.1% had one other illness"

One thing to note about this, although I haven't yet had a chance to check your link, is that this defines many conditions that people deal with on a daily basis while leading normal mostly healthy lives. Asthma is a very prevalent condition that can cause complications with Covid.

ORIGINAL: alanschu

I think we're still early, especially as we have an accelerating rate of deaths per day world wide. In order for your 38,000 to be an overestimate, it means that the rate of deaths per day has to make a sudden shift downwards within a month. I'm not sure why you would think that that would happen ...

Because of this graph that is in the WHO 19 March bulletin. Western pacific includes China. We are pretty much done down here. Europe includes Italy, Spain & Germany, and you can see the pattern playing out there - and it is reasonable to expect less mortality in 1st world countries with good health systems. The Americas, in particular the US, is unfortunately just taking off, and I am not touching the debate about the US health system's ability to respond affordably.

I have no doubt that some sensible personal protection actions - hygene, reducing unnecessary activity, cancellation of sports events - are helpful to containing this, and have been helpful, but the current panic actions and lockdowns are causing significant economic damage.

ORIGINAL: obvert



What is missing in this type of comparison you’re making is the extension of this into new areas.

Please see the graph posted above. The virus doesn't seem to like the weather in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, or Brazil. Or Africa. So unless something changes there, that is 6 of the 10 most populous countries in the world (including Nigeria) that don't seem to be having a very significant problem at this time. You can also add Mexico and Ethiopia to that list, who are in the top 12 or 15 countries by population.

Unless there has been some gross under-reporting of cases in those countries, that's a significant proportion of the world's population that are wondering what all the fuss is about.