Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2026 2:14 am
Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Allied #5. War declarations.
USSR
1. The Soviet spy Richard Sorge in Japan taps into the diplomatic conservation between Hideki Tojo and Adolf Hitler plans against the Soviet Union.
2. Specifically, Japan’s plan to force a peace with the Soviet Union at the end of this turn; which will make the USSR inactive (or neutral) again and force the USSR to demobilize their on-board reserves and MIL armies/corps (i.e., move from the board to their reserve pool).
3. Richard Sorge passes on this to Joseph Stalin, who assembles his top advisors (e.g., Molotov) and generals (e.g., Zhukov) to first assess the impact of coming to peace with Japan and then what to do to counter all this; especially given the imminent threat of a German invasion.
4. Of the 16 reserve/MIL armies/corps currently in play, 13 are on the Eastern Front, which will significantly strip the Soviet defenses in Eastern Poland and the Baltic States.
5. And, though these 16 armies/corps can be called out as soon as Germany declare war on the Soviet Union, they must be placed face down (i.e., disorganized) in a Soviet home city, which degrades their effectiveness and the Soviet Eastern Front defense overall.
6. There’s a 10% to 30% chance this will be the last allied impulse of the turn, which would risk (75.3%*) that Germany could declare war against a neutral Soviet Union at the start of next turn. * axis get the initiative and move first.
7. To negate this risk, the USSR WILL declare war on Italy this impulse, which carriers an expected 3.5 chit loss from the US German/Italy entry pool, which currently contains 7 chits (1,1,2,2,3,3,3).
8. But so be it, the Soviet can’t have their Eastern Front defenses stripped & degraded just prior to Germany’s invasion.
USA
1. The US, specifically President Roosevelt, is privy to the planning between Tojo & Hitler and Stalin’s preemptive response through the UK code breakers at Bletchley Park.
2. If the US does nothing, the worse case would be 2,3,3,3 and the best case 1,1,2 loss of chits from the US Germany/Italy entry pool.
3. So, Ge/It entry level would drop from 44 (40% DOW vs Germany) to between 27 (10%) & 39 (10%).
4. So, no matter the draw, DOW chance vs Germany will drop from 40% to 10%.
5. While not ideal, the Soviet upcoming DOW vs Italy has forced the US to take a 40% DOW shot vs Germany this impulse.
6. This means if that DOW fails the US will lose (another) chit in the Ge/It entry pool & 1 in the tension pool.
7. Combine with the Soviet DOW vs Italy the worst case would be the loss of 2,2,3,3,3 (5 chits) and the best case 1,1,2,3 (4 chits).
8. This means US Ge/It entry level would drop from its current 44 to between 24 (0% DOW chance) & 35 (10%).
9. Now on the upside, the US gets 2 chit draws each time to make up for the losses if the DOW fails.
10. No matter, the US hand is forced and will attempt DOW vs Germany & Italy (40%).
I need some practice ... and I promise to limit my memes to 1 or less per impulse or two or three ...
USSR
1. The Soviet spy Richard Sorge in Japan taps into the diplomatic conservation between Hideki Tojo and Adolf Hitler plans against the Soviet Union.
2. Specifically, Japan’s plan to force a peace with the Soviet Union at the end of this turn; which will make the USSR inactive (or neutral) again and force the USSR to demobilize their on-board reserves and MIL armies/corps (i.e., move from the board to their reserve pool).
3. Richard Sorge passes on this to Joseph Stalin, who assembles his top advisors (e.g., Molotov) and generals (e.g., Zhukov) to first assess the impact of coming to peace with Japan and then what to do to counter all this; especially given the imminent threat of a German invasion.
4. Of the 16 reserve/MIL armies/corps currently in play, 13 are on the Eastern Front, which will significantly strip the Soviet defenses in Eastern Poland and the Baltic States.
5. And, though these 16 armies/corps can be called out as soon as Germany declare war on the Soviet Union, they must be placed face down (i.e., disorganized) in a Soviet home city, which degrades their effectiveness and the Soviet Eastern Front defense overall.
6. There’s a 10% to 30% chance this will be the last allied impulse of the turn, which would risk (75.3%*) that Germany could declare war against a neutral Soviet Union at the start of next turn. * axis get the initiative and move first.
7. To negate this risk, the USSR WILL declare war on Italy this impulse, which carriers an expected 3.5 chit loss from the US German/Italy entry pool, which currently contains 7 chits (1,1,2,2,3,3,3).
8. But so be it, the Soviet can’t have their Eastern Front defenses stripped & degraded just prior to Germany’s invasion.
- 05-AL-USSR-DOW-on-USSR-USE-Entry.png (16.8 KiB) Viewed 73 times
1. The US, specifically President Roosevelt, is privy to the planning between Tojo & Hitler and Stalin’s preemptive response through the UK code breakers at Bletchley Park.
2. If the US does nothing, the worse case would be 2,3,3,3 and the best case 1,1,2 loss of chits from the US Germany/Italy entry pool.
3. So, Ge/It entry level would drop from 44 (40% DOW vs Germany) to between 27 (10%) & 39 (10%).
4. So, no matter the draw, DOW chance vs Germany will drop from 40% to 10%.
5. While not ideal, the Soviet upcoming DOW vs Italy has forced the US to take a 40% DOW shot vs Germany this impulse.
6. This means if that DOW fails the US will lose (another) chit in the Ge/It entry pool & 1 in the tension pool.
7. Combine with the Soviet DOW vs Italy the worst case would be the loss of 2,2,3,3,3 (5 chits) and the best case 1,1,2,3 (4 chits).
8. This means US Ge/It entry level would drop from its current 44 to between 24 (0% DOW chance) & 35 (10%).
9. Now on the upside, the US gets 2 chit draws each time to make up for the losses if the DOW fails.
10. No matter, the US hand is forced and will attempt DOW vs Germany & Italy (40%).
- 05-AL-SOI-US-Entry-Pool.png (120.32 KiB) Viewed 78 times
- 05-AL-SOI-US-DOW-Chance.png (234.41 KiB) Viewed 78 times
- 05-AL-War-Declarations.png (3.1 MiB) Viewed 72 times