OT: Corona virus

[alanschu]

Because of this graph that is in the WHO 19 March bulletin. Western pacific includes China. We are pretty much done down here. Europe includes Italy, Spain & Germany, and you can see the pattern playing out there - and it is reasonable to expect less mortality in 1st world countries with good health systems. The Americas, in particular the US, is unfortunately just taking off, and I am not touching the debate about the US health system's ability to respond affordably.

In your own words, you are "pretty much done" in the Western Pacific. Despite that, we're seeing an *increase* in new deaths every single day. If western pacific is "pretty much done" (which I won't even dispute), then the increasing death count is not going to include any of that region... just the new regions. More people died yesterday than all of the deaths up to February 10th.

The rate of new deaths has gone up by about 100 per day for the last week. It just hit 1000 yesterday and is getting faster....

Assuming the rate of new deaths suddenly flatlines (there's no statistical reason to believe this will happen looking at the current trend line), we still pass 38,000 deaths in just 28 days.

If the rate of new deaths continues on its current trend and doesn't accelerate (or decelerate) at all, we will reach 38,000 deaths in 16 days.


The silver lining is that the rate of new deaths this past week, while increasing, at least seems to be increasing in a linear fashion which means it might be flattening on a logarithmic scale (which is good!). But it's still increasing and I've no reason to expect that to change very quickly over the next few days.

Daily deaths spiked in Italy (hopefully that is an aberration) after seeming to flatten. Daily deaths are still rising in Spain, UK, and France. Germany seems to have been very lucky so while there is an increase, the numbers are still very low.

In Americas the US is still early but currently growing in death rate at an accelerating rate as well.


And I don't feel it's accurate to take all the time prior to January 20th as a meaningful predictor over a 6 month window given it's a whole bunch of 0s on the chart you showed.

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

ORIGINAL: obvert




Good to hear from you. Out of the frying pan into the fire, huh?

Dengue is no fun. Bone-break fever they call it. Hope yours is abating.

Keep us abreast of how things go there.

Thank you for the message Erik. Yes, now I'm relatively fine. Still, no fun over here: I have a very f@cked up immune system currently and I am quite concerned by the possibility of getting coronavirus because, albeit young, I am not in the best conditions to fight a virus.



Imagine that I would like to go back in the fire [:D][:D][:D] but I cannot for various reasons... So, I have to stay in the pan [:@]

Good to hear the Dengue is gone at least.

Earlier in this thread rangerjoe posted a good list of anti-viral foods/herbal medicines. Things help reduce virus replication and other things at a molecular chemical level. Obviously they won't stop the disease but can help the immune system keep to a less severe case.

Things like garlic, turmeric, vitamin C, Zinc, Green Tea. None of it is toxic so can't hurt!

http://the-health-gazette.com/496/natural-antivirals/

Thank you, Erik! I will dig into the advice given to find something.

Thanks also to BBFanboy!




Coming back to Covid-19. Probably not everybody knows that the cure is flattening in Italy. Here is the main problem: quarantine and preventive measures have been put in place at different times in different areas. Now, you look at the map and it looks like it's all the same in Lombardy and Veneto. Instead, some places are being badly hit now because they have started the most drastic preventive measures a little bit later than other areas.

It means for example that there are provinces (and towns) more hit than others due to that. If you have a breakdown for provinces (or towns) of the daily infections and casualties you see that there are some areas where the infection started quite badly but the curve remained very flat (Lecco for example if I recall correclty). Other cities, such as Bergamo (the epicentre of the epidemy), have a much worse curve because they started the preventive measures with relative delay.

It's not that they screwed up, it's that the decisional process took a while and the information flow wasn't complete when they took the decision. Even very few days change everything.


Supposedly, there is the idea that, between next week and the week after, the curve should flatten also for those towns/provinces.

I am quite confident it will, even if currently numbers are still very scaring.

[RangerJoe]

I will repost these links:

Cytokine release syndrome (CRS) is a form of systemic inflammatory response syndrome that can be triggered by a variety of factors such as infections and certain drugs. It occurs when large numbers of white blood cells are activated and release inflammatory cytokines, which in turn activate yet more white blood cells. CRS is also an adverse effect of some monoclonal antibody drugs, as well as adoptive T-cell therapies. Severe cases have been called cytokine storms. When occurring as a result of drug administration, it is also known as an infusion reaction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome

Cytokine Storm and Herbs: Life or Death Information!

10/21/2015

UPDATED ARTICLE AS OF MARCH 2020!
Many people hear the word "Cytokine Storm" and think it is a weather prediction.

However, this storm is one that can kill you. It is a "body weather prediction".

A cytokine storm can kill you. It occurs when a very severe viral infection (such as Swine Flu H1N1 or Bird Flu H5N1 - many people are now very worried about it based on the Coronavirus) takes control of your immune system and causes immune confusion in your body. Basically your body starts to work on overdrive and becomes really confused. This reaction called "Cytokine Storm" over activates your body to where normal feedback loops designed to calm things down fail to operate. (See the Medical Dictionary definition here.)

Your immune system becomes a runaway freight train where high fever, massive inflammation, extreme fatigue, vomiting and diarrhea dominate every minute of your existence. Did you know that MOST of the 25 million people that died in the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic died from a cytokine storm? Wow... that's good information to know. You don’t want to be caught in a cytokine storm.
.
.
.

You see, when someone in your house gets "the sniffles" there are so many wonderful ways of treating the illness through a natural route. Elderberry Syrup, First Defense, essential oils, diffusing, baths, glycerites, tinctures... In essence there are a lot of resources to use in order to combat the illness before it gets worse.

However, if someone in your care (including yourself of course) gets ill and it keeps getting worse, and worse, and worse and worse... you could be FEEDING the problem by what herbs you are using.

There are some herbs that COMBAT the Cytokine Storm and aid your body in fighting it, and there are other herbs that actually make it worse.

Here is a list of herbs that help to COMBAT Cytokine Storm (and if you keep getting more and more sick, these are the herbs to INCREASE), basically the good guys:
-Turmeric
-Elder LEAF
-Yarrow
-Cayenne
-Garlic
-Ginger
-Horseradish
-Red Raspberry
-Chinese Skullcap
-St. Johns Wort (check any interactions this might have with depression meds)
-Tea Tree Oil
-Vitamin C (lots of it! - and take it with a green spinach smoothie so your body has the iron to absorb it properly)
-Vitamin D

And remember, herbs are NOT like pharmaceutical drugs - they are NOT long term release - they are short term release. Meaning that when you are treating yourself with herbs you need to use them regularly. In the case of illness, supporting your cellular health each hour with herbs is perfectly fine!

So... How do I recognize a Cytokine Storm?

Once again, if you or anyone in your care is just starting to get sick, the risk of cytokine storm isn't substantiated yet.

However, if these signs show up and the illness keeps escalating, then be aware that a Cytokine Storm could be upon you (Please see THIS ARTICLE for further information on cytokine storm):
-High Fever for extended period of time (102*+ for 2 full days without breaking) - See this article about the basics of fevers, gives excellent information and medical guidelines.
-Swelling and redness on the body
-EXTREME fatigue
-Nausea and diarrhea consistent for 2 full days
-Rapid resting heart rate (over 100 beats per minute)

Remember, please seek medical attention in the case of an emergency. Don't avoid medical help when a Cytokine Storm could be upon you or anyone in your care - because it can be fatal!

https://www.naturalmedicinemamas.com/nm ... nformation

Joe

[Uncivil Engineer]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Coronavirus Blood Type: Does Being Type A or Type O Elevate Risk?
Mar 17, 2020
https://heavy.com/news/2020/03/coronavi ... -a-type-o/

"As reported by the South China Morning Post, after studying 2,000 patients infected with the virus, people with blood type A looked to be prone to serious infection by COVID-19."


"Blood group O had a significantly lower risk for the infectious disease compared with non-O blood groups."

Being O- that's good to hear!

[RFalvo69]

ORIGINAL: tolsdorff
So this supposes that there is a lot of the virus spreading everywhere, with no one knowing where or how. But, I wonder, where are the piles of dead people on the street, being caused by all this?

They are not in the streets. They are in temporary holding places.

Really. when all the media and the hysteria are to be taken seriously, this ''''pandemic''' is of the scale of the bubonic plague.

Would you like to come up to Italy, my country, and see, sir? Unprotected, of course - after all "it is only hysteria".

However, I have failed to spot 1 cart full of dead, and I was outside today for 7 hours, cycling. And yesterday, and the day before that. (I am 47, and feel great, A LOT BETTER than anyone staying inside for whatever reason)
I greet a lot of people that also apparently risk their lives at great personal cost, going outside and enjoy a walk or a bicycle ride. I have contact with them, even touch them (WOW). Shake hands. I should be dead by now I guess. But I am not, nor are they.

This is a very dangerous mindset - for you, your loved ones and your country. The scary thing (the thing that you should be scared of) is that, to be proven wrong, you need to see the disaster reaching all three.

Just my uninformed 2 cents

I guess so. In cases like yours, "uninformed 2 cents" are just that.

Here you can see a column of military trucks carrying a TINY fraction of the dead from COVID-19 to the crematorium.

[Ian R]

ORIGINAL: alanschu

Because of this graph that is in the WHO 19 March bulletin. Western pacific includes China. We are pretty much done down here. Europe includes Italy, Spain & Germany, and you can see the pattern playing out there - and it is reasonable to expect less mortality in 1st world countries with good health systems. The Americas, in particular the US, is unfortunately just taking off, and I am not touching the debate about the US health system's ability to respond affordably.

In your own words, you are "pretty much done" in the Western Pacific. Despite that, we're seeing an *increase* in new deaths every single day. If western pacific is "pretty much done" (which I won't even dispute), then the increasing death count is not going to include any of that region... just the new regions. More people died yesterday than all of the deaths up to February 10th.

The rate of new deaths has gone up by about 100 per day for the last week. It just hit 1000 yesterday and is getting faster....

Assuming the rate of new deaths suddenly flatlines (there's no statistical reason to believe this will happen looking at the current trend line), we still pass 38,000 deaths in just 28 days.

If the rate of new deaths continues on its current trend and doesn't accelerate (or decelerate) at all, we will reach 38,000 deaths in 16 days.


The silver lining is that the rate of new deaths this past week, while increasing, at least seems to be increasing in a linear fashion which means it might be flattening on a logarithmic scale (which is good!). But it's still increasing and I've no reason to expect that to change very quickly over the next few days.

Daily deaths spiked in Italy (hopefully that is an aberration) after seeming to flatten. Daily deaths are still rising in Spain, UK, and France. Germany seems to have been very lucky so while there is an increase, the numbers are still very low.

In Americas the US is still early but currently growing in death rate at an accelerating rate as well.


And I don't feel it's accurate to take all the time prior to January 20th as a meaningful predictor over a 6 month window given it's a whole bunch of 0s on the chart you showed.

So basically your point is you think the current trend will continue and follow a different pattern to the past, so deaths will climb, whereas mine is that past performance is the best predictor of the immediate future, and if the current spike patterns in the same way as the Western pacific (China) spike, Europe numbers are about to go over the azimuth and decline, with the US about 2 weeks behind.

I actually think that the spike will be less because of precautionary measures and the better health facilities affordably available to the public in North America and Europe. I will leave it to the Americans to debate if that last proviso applies there.

I also looked at a comparison of population figures to cases in more equatorial countries, and it looks like C19 is not having an impact in at least 6 of the 10 most populous countries in the world. Which are all ... near the equator. If that is a true indicator, than C19 has nowhere else to go.

[mind_messing]

I also looked at a comparison of population figures to cases in more equatorial countries, and it looks like C19 is not having an impact in at least 6 of the 10 most populous countries in the world. Which are all ... near the equator. If that is a true indicator, than C19 has nowhere else to go.

I would take great care in drawing that conclusion - is COVID 19 not having an impact, or is there insufficient testing?

Given the reports coming from Sir Lanka already, I'd suggest the latter.

[mind_messing]

One thing I am curious about is how the government response to COVID will change the accepted norms around state involvement in everyday life.

This feels very different in nature from the GFC...

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

One thing I am curious about is how the government response to COVID will change the accepted norms around state involvement in everyday life.

This feels very different in nature from the GFC...

So far the Governor of Florida has not decided to shut down the entire state the way the Governor of California just did.

Florida, is not yet overrun with tens of thousands of cases, and except for the empty shelves in grocery stores is mostly functioning normally.

I took Wednesday off to take a neighborhood stray to the vet to be neutered and my employer told me to go ahead and stay home for the rest of this week. He is concerned for me as I am in the over 60 category that the feds advise to shelter in homes.

Monday, I have to decide if I am going to continue to self isolate in my home, as recommended by the CDC, and hope that the promised federal stimulus will be enough for me to be able to survive on with out income from work, go back to work and hope for the best, or make the decision to go ahead and retire early to insure a flow of income while continuing to self isolate.

I don't want to retire early, because of the smaller benefit I will have to live on, but I may be forced into it.

If the curve does actually peak within two weeks, it will not reach anything like the 'shut down of the entire economy' proportions, which may then allow a fairly quick recovery to economic normalcy.

[RFalvo69]

Will the US government ban all interstate travel?

[jdsrae]

I am reading this thread daily for the facts and figures and generally taking things seriously, but my wife just distracted me from entering orders in my PBEM with this and it gave me a laugh. If anyone needs a translation from 'Strayan to English then let me know.

[MakeeLearn]

The upcoming job losses will be unlike anything the US has ever seen
3 Mar 20

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... li=BBnb7Kz

"When the damage the Coronavirus inflicts on the U.S. jobs market becomes clearer, it could be unlike anything the country has ever seen."

"Job losses will be counted not in the thousands or even hundreds of thousands, but rather in the millions."

[MakeeLearn]

Sanny, that sounds so Aussie.


"Need to put some Sanny on me Roo."

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Ian R

ORIGINAL: obvert



What is missing in this type of comparison you’re making is the extension of this into new areas.

Please see the graph posted above. The virus doesn't seem to like the weather in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, or Brazil. Or Africa. So unless something changes there, that is 6 of the 10 most populous countries in the world (including Nigeria) that don't seem to be having a very significant problem at this time. You can also add Mexico and Ethiopia to that list, who are in the top 12 or 15 countries by population.

Unless there has been some gross under-reporting of cases in those countries, that's a significant proportion of the world's population that are wondering what all the fuss is about.

India is taking this very seriously, with closed borders and lockdowns. I can't comment on others, but many of those places do not have extensive testing regimes at present.

Even if they're excluded from the numbers, taking a billion people off the calculation (half of the population of those countries combined), that would be 2.5 billion x 0.5% = 12,500,000 deaths from this virus if nothing were done to stop it's spread.

[DD696]

The greater Savannah area has a population or around 550,000. Yesterday we had our first corona virus diagnosis in Effingham County and the patient is hospitalized. They are trying to trace and track contacts.

However, the Coastal Health District here has been issued 90 test kits. Just how well they will help diagnosis a population of 550,000 is the question. Obviously, there is not much testing going on except for the big clusters or if you are an NBA player.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Ian R

ORIGINAL: obvert



What is missing in this type of comparison you’re making is the extension of this into new areas.

Please see the graph posted above. The virus doesn't seem to like the weather in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, or Brazil. Or Africa. So unless something changes there, that is 6 of the 10 most populous countries in the world (including Nigeria) that don't seem to be having a very significant problem at this time. You can also add Mexico and Ethiopia to that list, who are in the top 12 or 15 countries by population.

Unless there has been some gross under-reporting of cases in those countries, that's a significant proportion of the world's population that are wondering what all the fuss is about.

https://twitter.com/ToAlways_net/status ... 12/photo/1

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

Will the US government ban all interstate travel?

Not without accepting the complete shutting down of the distribution of basic goods.

We largely abandoned the rail network in favor of the road network. Some goods are still distributed to large warehouses by train and then distributed locally by truck, but many of our goods are distributed directly by trucking.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

One thing I am curious about is how the government response to COVID will change the accepted norms around state involvement in everyday life.

This feels very different in nature from the GFC...

So far the Governor of Florida has not decided to shut down the entire state the way the Governor of California just did.

Florida, is not yet overrun with tens of thousands of cases, and except for the empty shelves in grocery stores is mostly functioning normally.

I took Wednesday off to take a neighborhood stray to the vet to be neutered and my employer told me to go ahead and stay home for the rest of this week. He is concerned for me as I am in the over 60 category that the feds advise to shelter in homes.

Monday, I have to decide if I am going to continue to self isolate in my home, as recommended by the CDC, and hope that the promised federal stimulus will be enough for me to be able to survive on with out income from work, go back to work and hope for the best, or make the decision to go ahead and retire early to insure a flow of income while continuing to self isolate.

I don't want to retire early, because of the smaller benefit I will have to live on, but I may be forced into it.

If the curve does actually peak within two weeks, it will not reach anything like the 'shut down of the entire economy' proportions, which may then allow a fairly quick recovery to economic normalcy.

Reflecting on this, I think it's going to be the social impact (much more so than the economic one, perhaps?) that will be the lasting legacy of the pandemic.

[RFalvo69]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

Will the US government ban all interstate travel?

Not without accepting the complete shutting down of the distribution of basic goods.

They could allow for essential services to be exempted by this ban.

I'm asking this because in Europe it is easier to impose travel bans. IIRC, in the USA the liberty to travel is a constitutionally protected right. Even inside states, any restriction of travel is a constitutional violation. I'm a bit surprised that no one in the USA is talking about this (or maybe I missed it).

[DD696]

Just heard a report on Fox News that the President today will announce new travel restrictions. Whether internal to the country or regarding international travel is unknown.