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And they are right to do so: Axis 2, Allies 10. The Japanese exclude the BB's and the cruiser in the 4 box. A surface battle commences. The Japanese use 10 surprise points to increase damage:

The Allied cruisers return fire:

The Japanese abort the Coral Sea. At the Cape St. Vincent, the Germans decides to search for Allied shipping. The CW reacts by flying Beaufighters into the sea area. Axis roll 2, Allies roll 3.

NAV's on both sides find eachother, so no combat is occuring. With the Beaufighters now in the Sea area, the Condors decide to abort.

Music: Big Boy - Ray McKinley (Imogene Lynn, vocal)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sr2RwCwZQo

The USSR improves their positions. No combats are declared.

And here is the weather for the next couple of impulses:

March/April 1943, Axis impulse number 7:

What to do with Japan. On the one hand, it wants to take naval impulse to protect the convoys and perhaps attack the US fleet. On the other hand, it wants to take a land action, so it can try to move units. After some thinking, the protection of the convoys gets priority.

Japan takes a naval action. Italy takes an air action and Germany a land action.

Italy decides to fly 2 FTRs and 3 NAV into the Cape St. Vincent. It wants to initiate combat there. The US reacts by sending in the P-51 FTR. Axis roll 6, Alllies roll 7, making it a big sea area.

Japanese music: Southern Bride - Meiko Takamine

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vsx1fGbfKGY

Japan sails CV's and BB's into both the South China and China Sea to give the convoys more escorts. It doesn't want to initiate combat there, leaving it to the US to decide if it wants to do so. Now, I consider myself to be a lousy admiral, who is always making the wrong decision at sea. The admiral commanding the US task force there decides to initiate combat. Allies roll 7, Axis roll 5. The US fleet is found by the Japanese. The Japanese commander decides, with 5 surprise points to spend, not to avoid combat but to meet the US task force in the air. After allocating the roles of the CVP's as FTR's or bombers, the Japanese decide not to use surprise point in air-to-air combat:

That result was pretty devastating to the US. And the Japanese AA gun crews are pretty good too:

The US anti air guns abort a NAV and reduce three more points:

Banzai, Tora, Tora, Tora or something like that. Two points used to increase damage and three points used to choose target, makes that all losses are chosen by the Japanese:

Another unlucky admiral fired on the spot. The US decide to abort the sea area.

In the South China Sea, the US admiral is far more confident. He's got the better CVP available. He searches for the Japanese. Allies roll 5, Axis roll 2. The Japanese admiral finds the US ships. A naval air combat is chosen by the US and another air-to-air battle commences after the roles of the CVP's are decided. The Japanese decide to use 2 surprise points to decrease the US air-to-air combat:

Japanese AA guns open fire:

The same happens above the American fleet:

The US planes target the Ryujo:

Japanese pilots target the Intrepid, who's deck is full of planes...

The commander of this US task force also aborts the sea area.

Japanese military music: 《戦時歌謡》暁に祈る（"Akatsuki ni inoru"- Pray at dawn）

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aijn3vNQYc

Germany rails more units out of the Leningrad Area towards Murmansk, the Ostfront and Tashkent. Positions are improved and air units rebased. In the far north, Von Leeb personally leads an attack on Murmansk:

High losses, but the USSR is now totally isolated.

The Yugoslavian army attacks partisans in Greece:

The turn doesn't end (20% chance, die roll 9). Here is the Ostfront:

Japanese won the air battle part of that too in terms of losses (4 planes lost compared to 5 for the Allies). Pretty ugly exchange for the US. 1 big carrier sunk along with some others damaged while the Japanese have a light carrier damaged. More importantly, it will take the US time to go back and reload on planes and/or bring more planes out to their carriers than the Japanese who are a lot closer to home.

Obviously long term, the Japanese can't take that type of loss ratio (4 to 5) because the US produces so much more than them, but rate that a tactical victory for the time being since time isn't on the US side.

Hmm one would have to actually see how many pilots got gunned down along the planes to be honest here.
Japan can easily replace 4 CVP if that's the CVP only - but if you pair them with the pilot cost it's a very different matter. (from 4 BPs skyrocketing to a maximum of 12). I can see Japan lost at least 1 pilot. US lost at least 2 by what I saw.

To have got rid of a carrier of USA, one of the 6 moving ones - is quite a success still that shrinks their ability to keep the pressure on as long as the Japanese fleet remains mainly intact.

I think the score sheet is the US has lost 3 big carriers and the Japanese have lost 1 so far.

Where are the fortifications the Germans have been building being placed?