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As you well know Nic, the Allied logistical tail and generating a steady counter offensive tempo is difficult. IMO, the most difficult thing to run effectively is the Air Production and Engine building for Japan even if you use Tracker. The Allied steamroller by late '43 and beyond takes a lot of time each turn to keep running smoothly. Like you mentioned before, the addition of SL to the game makes some bases very busy shipping LCUs out of. Right now I would imagine bases like Townsville, Noumea, and Luganville are very busy with lots of transports coming and going. I don't know how organized Erik is, but this part of the game requires an Allied player to learn how to quickly.

Would be VERY surprised if Erik wasn´t extremely well organized.

Made a mistake! We're in JUNE 43, not may!

June 16, 1943

The allies seem to be ready for another push towards Torokina. Several SAGs are massing in the Solomons, while a HUGE bombardment by 3 old BBs simply destroy what was left at Maloaep...

South of Chungking the four tank divisions, now re-united in a massive Tank Army, reach a 1-1, but losses are horrendous on our side, with more than 50 destroyed squads and 190 disabled, along with 90 tanks and 70 engineers...[X(]

Nothing else to report...


Micheal, yes, I know and I agree with you. However it seems Erik is doing a fine job in dealing with logistics. His pace of advance has been steady without risking much...

Supplies are still raising, even if slowly. If tracker has to be believed, are now at 3.4 Millions (TFs included), while fuel is at 7.75M (bunkers included).

HIs is very low, at 900K...but that is part of my strategy as u may remember

By now 200 Franks have been produced and 150 are already fielding in Burma...waiting for the first P-47s strike to arrive.

The air war has been pretty slow since April 43. This has enabled me to rest and train back my groups after the fierce battles over Chungking and Paoshan, where I lost several great pilots and way too many airframes. Now with Franks online, I feel a little bit better and I can't wait to finally have the Oscar IV and the Tony "d" to fill the gaps among my first lines (too many Tony-KI-61s "a" and "b" and too many Oscar IIIas - which are good, but with too little firepower to be competitive)

The 16th ID is being moving to Sarmi, along with the 18th Army HQ, 1 arty regiment (24 pieces of 150mm) and a couple of little AA units (2x18 75mm AA guns). These will join 2 Base forces and several engineers units already present there. Sarmi will be the next bastion of my defence in NG, with 6 forts and backed by the Biak fortified complex.

Ok, now strategically speaking...

Considering that the pressure on SOPAC/SWPAC and CENTPAC will remain constant, where will erik strike with his CVs?

For sure he'll keep on advancing towards Rabaul and soon it will attack Finshhafen and Umboi and Buin-Torokina. At the same time he for sure will keep on moving towards Maloep and Majuro in the Marshalls.

Considered that, where will he strike with his main hammer?

1- NW Oz?
2- Kuriles?
3- Sumatra?
4- Java?
5- Sea of Carpentaria (Horn-Mereuake)?
6- Adamans?
7- Mariannas?

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Ok, now strategically speaking...

Considering that the pressure on SOPAC/SWPAC and CENTPAC will remain constant, where will erik strike with his CVs?

For sure he'll keep on advancing towards Rabaul and soon it will attack Finshhafen and Umboi and Buin-Torokina. At the same time he for sure will keep on moving towards Maloep and Majuro in the Marshalls.

Considered that, where will he strike with his main hammer?

1- NW Oz?
2- Kuriles?
3- Sumatra?
4- Java?
5- Sea of Carpentaria (Horn-Mereuake)?
6- Adamans?
7- Mariannas?

I think a move in the Mariannas is unlikely at this point. It's not a good place for Erik to fight in 1943. And I'd say Java is also probably too risky for Erik right now as well. Given the fact you still have a forward line in Burma, an Andaman invasion seems like the most probable use of CVs. I think that Erik will go after Horn and NW OZ at some point but that can be done without CV cover and neither area is worth committing CVs for. Sumatra is probably the only place on that list where the Allies have a good chance of succeeding that you cannot give up without a good fight. But for a Sumatra invasion the USN CVs would have to be MIA for a while to get into position. The Allies had a lot of combat strength in India that was needed to push you back earlier and its hard for me to imagine Erik sending them all to go fight you in the jungles. Something tells me Erik has more ambitious plans with them...

ORIGINAL: Sangeli


I think a move in the Mariannas is unlikely at this point. It's not a good place for Erik to fight in 1943. And I'd say Java is also probably too risky for Erik right now as well. Given the fact you still have a forward line in Burma, an Andaman invasion seems like the most probable use of CVs. I think that Erik will go after Horn and NW OZ at some point but that can be done without CV cover and neither area is worth committing CVs for. Sumatra is probably the only place on that list where the Allies have a good chance of succeeding that you cannot give up without a good fight. But for a Sumatra invasion the USN CVs would have to be MIA for a while to get into position. The Allies had a lot of combat strength in India that was needed to push you back earlier and its hard for me to imagine Erik sending them all to go fight you in the jungles. Something tells me Erik has more ambitious plans with them...

Yes, i strongly agree. Sumatra (or Java) are the two most possible objectives.
However, untill Diego Garcia is ours, a move from India towards Sumatra is unlikely to be going unseen and i am keeping the KB1 and KB2 close to I.O. just for that case.
Sebang is a fortress, with a reinforced division guarding it.
The real weak spot is the western coast of Sumatra, which is pretty tough to defend. I am sending reinforcements there, in some key areas (Benkoleng, Siberoet etc).
However, as soon as my army completes its retreat from India, i will be able to send some badly needed divisions to the western theatre... hopefully sooner than later.
His CVs and his invasion fleets may also be coming from CT directly, bypassing Diego... but that would be a very long shot and i have scouts in I.O. to give me an early warning... hopefully with the KB around he won't be risking that much in 1943...

I agree with you two,
Mariannes and Kuriles seem too early to be invaded, they're too isolated and he needs B29 to bomb japan from so far, and he hasn't them till spring 44.
Sumatra or Andamanes seem more probable candidates, maybe I'll add Wake to the list. It's near his vector in Marshalls and a good place for you to spot his future movements towards Mariannes.
more it's quite isolated and he can move from Midway without ben spotted too early.

ORIGINAL: MrBlizzard

I agree with you two,
Mariannes and Kuriles seem too early to be invaded, they're too isolated and he needs B29 to bomb japan from so far, and he hasn't them till spring 44.
Sumatra or Andamanes seem more probable candidates, maybe I'll add Wake to the list. It's near his vector in Marshalls and a good place for you to spot his future movements towards Mariannes.
more it's quite isolated and he can move from Midway without ben spotted too early.

Yes, Wake is very likely to be on his list. In fact there isn't much Japan can do to defend wake if not committing the whole KB. However if he wants to get on wake he will need his full DS to be sure not to find the KB waiting for him...and if the DS is in the Pacific it means it is not in the I.O.
A splitted version of the DS (a couple of CVs + the CVEs) isn't exactly safe against the KB in 1943, so I don't think Wake will be on the list until fall 43 at least...while Sumatra is much more likely even in the late summer 1943

June 17, 1943

CHINA: south of Chungking the tanks achieve another 1-2 after the 1-1 of yesterday. More reinforcements are spotted moving down from Chungking, so it will be another long slog....and I need to stop and RnR a bit now... without air superiority it is much difficult to achieve anything in a +3 terrain.

Assembling the army to take on Wenchow...

Torokina...the allies are ready for another massive naval clash I guess... not less than 5 SAGs are warming their engines at Munda...

Marshalls...more bombings at Maloep and Wotje... My CVs are still unseen...

No sign of his CVs...

Everything quiet in Burma...we're happily moving back from Imphal...

Yeah you're right, there's an island west of Sumatra , Siberoet if I remember well the name, that can be builded 'till AF 9. And many others that can be builded 'till level 8. far enough from your surface TF that have to circle Sumatra to reach those places

ORIGINAL: MrBlizzard

Yeah you're right, there's an island west of Sumatra , Siberoet if I remember well the name, that can be builded 'till AF 9. And many others that can be builded 'till level 8. far enough from your surface TF that have to circle Sumatra to reach those places

Already sent there 3 units of engineers to build up forts. A division will get there soon, along with a couple of base forces and some guns.
That is a critical spot and I know I have to defend it along with Benkoleng and Sebang. Those bases are the keys for Sumatra.

June 18, 1943

An enemy's cruiser TF arrives unseen at Roi-Namur, destroying several a/c on the ground and plastering the base...OUCH!
My CVs are nearby...still unseen... let's see if he moves in again tomorrow...may become interesting!

At Imphal the allies gets a 1-2 but lower the forts down to 1...luckly tomorrow we should be out of the town...supplies are very very low and I won't be able to hold on there for long now

Burma seems now much more stable. everything is in good shape and I have more than 200k supplies in Rangoon. The Burma road is also helping in keeping a decent level of supplies all over Burma.

Many allied subs are spotted in the I.O. lately....mmmm... will need to add some more search there...just to be sure

Retreating to Burma

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
Everything quiet in Burma...we're happily moving back from Imphal...

I have a strong feeling that Erik is prepping a Sumatra invasion. Either that or the Andamans followed by an invasion of the lower Burmese coast. Because I KNOW something is brewing and it's not a slog through Akyab or Upper Burma.

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
Everything quiet in Burma...we're happily moving back from Imphal...

I have a strong feeling that Erik is prepping a Sumatra invasion. Either that or the Andamans followed by an invasion of the lower Burmese coast. Because I KNOW something is brewing and it's not a slog through Akyab or Upper Burma.

Interesting. I agree that a move through Burma is the worst option for the Allis.
At the same time, the Adamans can be problematic at this stage. Port Blair is well defended (340 AVs behind 5 forts) and there are no other supporting bases for the allies, so if they want to come, they will have to rely ONLY on the DS to contend the air space over their ships...pretty risky.
Same for lower Burma. Too early now. I have at least 4 divisions that can be railed everywhere in Burma pretty fast and i still have the complete dominion of the skies over Burma. Pegu or Moulmein are his best option for this move, but you first need to suppress Rangoon to do that...and we're still far from that point.
Western Sumatra is much more likely at this stage and i am doing everything i can to get ready for that.
The KB is loitering near Java unseen, so i doubt he will risk anything without knowing where my best weapon is... or he may try to push me to commit the KB to a CV-CV engagement... that would be something i'd would be thinking if i was in his shoes

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
The KB is loitering near Java unseen, so i doubt he will risk anything without knowing where my best weapon is... or he may try to push me to commit the KB to a CV-CV engagement... that would be something i'd would be thinking if i was in his shoes

Yea, and along those lines I don't think you should shy away from a CV battle in the Indian Ocean area. Not a good place for the Allies to have a bunch of damaged CVs given the very limited shipyards. Because even if he does "win" the battle, he may end up having to delay CV ops for quite some time getting those CVs back to bases that can repair them. If I were Erik, I would rather force a CV battle on the other side of the ocean.

I think we are going to see the beauty of Greyjoy's strategy play out for the next 6 months as he is in a very strong position in SRA and Burma -- the flow of oil and fuel seems guaranteed for quite a while.

In the CentPac he isn't so strong, but the Allies can really only just nibble while NG seems pretty well nailed down to.

I just wish the Allied losses were heavier, but what can you do other than prepare for a good opportunity at Umboi, Horn or one of the other festungs maybe Kusaie or Wake?

June 19, 1943

A very very sad day.

Marshalls:

The KB-3 positions itself in a perfect place, 1 hex north of Roi Namur and 7 hexes far from Maloep.
The allies, who had not spotted it, make their move against Maloaep.
The usual invasion fleet (1 CVE+BBs+DDs+APAs and 1 SAG) approaches Maloaep...
We're in range...perfect

In the morning...heavy rain over Maloaep...
20 Kates took off without escort (why?!) from Roi Namur and get destroyed by the LRCAP+CVE CAP... but there are less than 40 planes over the enemy's TFs...perfect. I have 95 fighters on escort and more than 140 bombers (Judys and Jills)...

Morning Air attack on TF, near Maloelap at 136,117

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 70 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 29 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B5N2 Kate x 20

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 38
F6F-3 Hellcat x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 9 destroyed

No Allied losses

CAP engaged:
VF-71 with F6F-3 Hellcat (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 6 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 25000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 25000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 6 minutes
VRF-6F with F4F-4 Wildcat (0 airborne, 9 on standby, 15 scrambling)
4 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 1000 and 12000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 28 minutes
VMF-124 with F4F-4 Wildcat (4 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Raid is overhead
VMF-216 with F4F-4 Wildcat (6 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
6 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Raid is overhead

--------------------------

fternoon Air attack on TF, near Maloelap at 136,117

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 58 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B5N2 Kate x 6

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 38
F6F-3 Hellcat x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 1 destroyed

No Allied losses

CAP engaged:
VF-71 with F6F-3 Hellcat (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 6 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 25000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 25000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 4 minutes
VRF-6F with F4F-4 Wildcat (0 airborne, 9 on standby, 15 scrambling)
4 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 6000 and 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 26 minutes
VMF-124 with F4F-4 Wildcat (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 4 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 9 minutes
VMF-216 with F4F-4 Wildcat (6 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
6 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Raid is overhead



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Let's hope for the afternoon, right? It cannot be raining forever...

Instead of the great raid I expected... ONLY 13 Jills take off (13!?!?!? Com'on!), escorted 40 Zeros...a useless massacre for no gain at all!



Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Maloelap at 136,117

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 78 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 41
B6N1 Jill x 12

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 37
F6F-3 Hellcat x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 7 destroyed
B6N1 Jill: 3 destroyed, 3 damaged
B6N1 Jill: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 2 destroyed

Allied Ships
CL Richmond
CL Trenton

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x B6N1 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp



And that's all!... you would imagine my anger, right !?[:@]

Then the enemy storms the beaches... but, despite the heavy bombings suffered by my troops, forts are high enough to repulse the enemy back in the ocean...

Ground combat at Maloelap (136,117)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 6422 troops, 61 guns, 86 vehicles, Assault Value = 157

Defending force 3792 troops, 42 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 57

Allied adjusted assault: 14

Japanese adjusted defense: 23

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 5)

Combat modifiers
Defender: disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-), supply(-)

Japanese ground losses:
164 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 34 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 8 (1 destroyed, 7 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1584 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 100 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 22 disabled
Engineers: 7 destroyed, 28 disabled
Vehicles lost 8 (1 destroyed, 7 disabled)

Assaulting units:
21st Infantry Rgt /1
6th USN Naval Const Rgt /1

Defending units:
88th Naval Guard Unit
Maloelap Base Force
Maloelap Naval Fortress
1st JNAF AF Unit


But the situation is so severe at Maloaep that I don't think I could last any longer.
If weather was on my side today I could have bagged a whole invasion TF full of troops.... instead I just got 52 planes lost for no gain at all...



INDIA: Imphal is abandoned in good order.

CHINA: another failed attack south of Chungking... don't know if I will ever break his lines here... he keeps on sending in fresh troops...

Ground combat at 76,46 (near Chungking)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 29731 troops, 541 guns, 2126 vehicles, Assault Value = 1230

Defending force 46429 troops, 93 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1372

Japanese adjusted assault: 749

Allied adjusted defense: 1121

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1247 casualties reported
Squads: 33 destroyed, 51 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 81 disabled
Engineers: 10 destroyed, 20 disabled
Guns lost 19 (1 destroyed, 18 disabled)
Vehicles lost 79 (10 destroyed, 69 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1134 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 149 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
3rd Tank Regiment
3rd Tank Division
9th Tank Regiment
7th Ind.Tank Brigade
1st Tank Division
2nd Tank Division
Guards Tank Division
6th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
11th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
1st Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
4th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
Tonei Hvy Gun Regiment
5th Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
49th Chinese Corps
62nd Chinese Corps
32nd Chinese Corps
86th Chinese Corps
97th Chinese Corps
3rd Prov Chinese Corps
57th AT Gun Regiment





Sending more "eyes" in the Indian Ocean...