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At last, the turn ends.
The cost was heavy for everybody but the Commonwealth, which nevertheless lost two convoys.
Italy's loss of three convoys is not shown, and it is daunting! It threatens the whole position in Africa, except by putting transport at risk!

Japan: 8/11
China: 12/7
Germany: 14/15
Commonwealth: 2/21
France: is it really worth mentionning it ?

And so now comes the time for a pause.
Indeed, winter is coming, and most military operations will come to a grinding halt.
And everybody is now reviewing its options, now that one major power might be knowked out of the war.

First, it is important to take a good picture of the overall situation, which we will check considering the coming reinforcments for a more precise analysis in the sort term.

Southern China:

The line, as mentionned previously, is quite weak. Factor 2 or 3 units.
Within the ten unist that we see on the map, only a handful are "expendable" ; the mitilias in particular, are good to hold the ground, but not to fight: there are these that once lost cannot be replaced (Shangaï, Canton, Peking...) and these that if lost will take ages to come back to the front!

On the Japanese side, their is no immediate threat there, but the line will shortly be reinforced by an HQ and another unit: the Japanese forces don't seem sufficient to break Changsa. However, that city remains a strategic objective, if only by being a railway node whose incoming lines are mostly Japanese controlled.

China: no offensive possibilities, even by infiltration : what is there to infiltrate ?
Japan: take Changsa with a knockout blow that could lead to the capture of Hengyang and the resource in between.

In northern China, the situation is no better for the Chinese.
The latest Japanese offensive has left them bleeing and short of units.

The communist have 6 units to contain 12 Japanese units, some of which are elite. There is no way to cut the supplies, even though winter wll certainly not help ; but the presence of a HQ ensure that this force will mostly stay functionnal in the Yellow river valley. The Chinese forces are also the best, but the Japanese couls infiltrate behind the lines using their superior numbers if holes are left open, or else they could attack weak points if the forces are spread. It is clear that Sian is at severe risk.

China: fall back to Sian and abandon Tungkwan ?
Japan: push forward to Sian ; don't allow losses.

Overall China: the situation is clearly to be extremely defensive. The japanese superiority is clear, and it is good that they did not make more progress!

Overall Japan: the situation on the medium/long term is not as good as it seems. Russia might be tempted by an assoult on Mandchuria later, possibly in 42 when the German intentions will have been made clearer, allowing for the time required for them to reinforce Siberia. More problematci is the situation with the allies : at this stage, most of the resources have gone to the army (1/2) ; the rest can be divided evenly between oil stocks and the navy. The air force has not improved an inch and nothing is yet planned. The carrier planes are aging. Clearly, resources are missing to fulfill the whole agenda. Is there any emergency ? not really : the US have been extremely passive on exterior events. War declarations, Chinese cities capture etc do not seem to have had any negative impact on the public opinion. Granted, the US have just yet stopped sending some resources. But it doesn't look like they will enter war anytime soon! This may possbly give one more year to knowk the Chinese out, harmless. A strong standing army might then deter any Russian attack. And the production might improve within the year, especially if new resources are captured in China. Action plan: continue the offensive in China for the first half of the year. Reevaluate the plan if the army has made no substantial progress within this time.

Overall Russia: as always, walking on eggs... But Germany has lost two turns producing units mostly useful agains the Commonwealth ; should they change their objective, than make for a lot of missing units to attack mother Russia. It also has lost a lot conquering France. Germany looks dominant, but it might be weaker than one believes. This dosn't mean that Russia can do what it wants. But some options are on the table. An attack on Japan ? No, unless this is the only way to prevent the fall of China. The Japanese garrison is strong enough to hold, and reinforcements could flow fast from China where Japan holds all railways in firm hands. Claim the Finnish Borderland ? dubious. Attack Persia ? Follow up on Irak ? tempting. This might ennoy Churchill though ; it would be better not to weaken the Commonwealth. Still, the best is to be prepared for that attack, which is cheap. Other than that, keep up the garrison!

Overall Commonwealth: Planning is difficult as long as the German intentions are not clearer. Still, prudence is the top priority: the latest builds were clearly made in order to attack twest. Now let's evaluate the risks.

In Egypt, the attacks on the Italian convoys did spoil a planned attack on Wavell by Balbo, helped by Italian fleet. The intelligence service is sure of that. Italy is plagued by supply problems, but relying on that in hardly a good idea! An Italian amph is coming soon : it will probably be used to capture Cyprus, possibly Syria depending on its status, or for attacking Egypt behind the lines ; such an attack might be hard to prevent. The current army in Egypt is lacking, especially if it is reinforced by German troops from France. The good news is that the loss of Egypt, while a hard blow, is not vital. In particular merchant ships have long deserted the area! The Italian fleet could possibly raid the Indian ocean, and that is more annoying ; but the fleet there should be able to keep this in check as long as Aden doesn't fall and the Italian fleet is confined to the Red sea.
Even then, the three carrier groups bordering the Indian sea should be enough to deter the Italians from anything but submarine warfare ; ennoying enough!

Objective: because that's likely the less expesive proposition, reinforce Egypt with at least two corps. Be prepared to match the axis reinforcements there, not forgetting that at some later points, axis units in Africa are likely to be trapped.

Gibraltar might be another more serious objective for the Italians and the German alike.
The fleet there matches the Italian fleet, but the Garrision is barely sufficient to protect against a lucky shot. At least one div is missing. And it cannot be allowed to fall from just an air/sea attack : if the Germans want Gilbraltar, they must be forced to roll over Spain, a not that pallatable choice.

Raids by submarines in the med are likely to continue: they have been exceedingly efficient to disrupt Italian operations in Africa.

Malta, Gibraltar little sister, is much less important, and anyway it cannot be defended against a serious assault. The white print Aussies should give thought to the value that the axis is willing to pay to get the island. For its part, the Commonwealth is not going to pay more ; not even in plane squadrons : too risky. Possibly much later with a second white print, if there are spare ones which is unlikely.

Objective: Reinforce Gilbraltar with one div. Be prepared to push another one if things come to that. Keep strong plane force ; fighters come to mind, but navs are usefull to patrol the nearby all-important sea area!

Sea lanes: the most important sea lanes have been patrolled heavily. This did not serve much considering that the German subs were not in range most of the time, and that the Italian subs failed to find anything. Still, that pattern should be kept if possible. The German fleet was moved to Kiel, and that comes as no surprise: it is preparing to raid the Atlantic.
Ideally, the sea lanes should be reduced to a minimum and the bay of Biscay either abandonned or under extrem protection. The latter involves heavy fighter cover, and a strong naval bomber presence. The good news is that the german fighters are unable to go far and protect its navy. The bad news is that there are so many convoys that the Germans should find them from even low boxes (well, the Italians failed...), possibly even the zero one!

Analysis: rerouting the convoys is both expensive (this requires and additional 16 convoys) and probably disrutive, not to mention long (the time to build said convoys.) Overall, the better solution is to lure the German navy and subs into combat which they will lose. There are 4 fighters and two navs on map, and an additional fighter and three navs in the reserve pool. Discounting the P82 night fighter that are somewhat obsolete. Among the navs, a long range multi-purpose Sunderland. Germany only boasts 5 fighters, counting a not very efficient Bf110C. It has only one nav. So the air match is even except that German fighters all match a british fighter with an additional factor: british planes are outclassed... In addition, Germany will soon receive a fighter and two navs, while the british will receive one fighter and one nav. This stays even.

Objective: build up the planes and naval bombers as quickly as possible! Man the strong reserve! Hopefully the winter storms will be giving a respite.

As fleet are concerned, the fleet in Portsmouth is matching the German fleet. If it sorties in the Atlantic, it will meet the patrolling cruisers. Most depend on luck. It may bring disaster, or it may fail and be chased with reinforcements from Gibraltar... Still the risk is a production standstill should a sea area have to be vacated because of raiders. The presence of German subs will be more annoying. The best is to keep a tight protection, as of now. And pray the gods of the seas!

In Britain proper, there are few troops, but an invasion threat is not yet materialized while most beaches are defended. The German don't have any ready offensive, which means that it will be possible to "see them coming"!

Objective: build at least one armor before summer ; the current situation is risky with one German amph coming soon! Reinforce with at least one infantry.

Overall for the Commonwealth: The threat is everywhere. Must keep on a paranoid state. Build up defenses ; these will surely serve later. Don't take useless risks. The only combat that might once happen, if the circumstances warrant it, would be to push the Italians out.

Build: infantry, one armor, fighters, navs. Light on a candle and pray.

The only good news: up to now, it outbuilds Germany and Italy taken together.

For Italy, things are simple: stick up with Germany. Which has decided on a western strategy but is reviewing it. While technically on the offensive, Italian forces are not exactly up to the task of attacking. Furthermore, the losses up to now have been heavy considering the so small Italian production! Every asset is to be cherished and used sparefully. In addition to that, the German strategy involves using lots of oil, which is cruely missing. At this stage, Italy must claim resources from germany to keep up the southern front open. Some interesting units are going to be procuced soon, such as a marine : it will have to be used smartly, likely in opportunity attacks. Building up paras would be also a smart move. Together, they could help much. More than standard troops.

The risks for Italy itself are small: the Commonwealth just has not what it takes to invade. But keeping forces in important spots is still a good idea.

Objectives: conquer Cyprus, Syria, Egypt. All are reasonable. Help the German with whatever their strategy, at a cost in lent resources. At least one oil and one standard.

For Germany, things are quite more complicated: it has the initiative and now is a turning point. The only good news is that the USA don't seem to be really interested in a war. They have disregarded all declaration of war and no exteranl event seems to be moving them...

There are lots of bad news, despite that apparent grand success with the conquest of France. The fact is that it came at a much too steep price. It is difficult to point down where things went bad, but for one, the capture of Paris itself dif cost a hefty amount of troops, and there was little to do with that!

The result is that the army is thin, the navy is thin, the sub force is thin, the air force is thin, and actually there is no strength whatsoever anywhere! The Commonwealth is a match in all areas, and furthermore it produces more.

An attack on Russia is certainly not a good idea: by the time that the Wehrmacht can be ready, the Russian army will have more armor, more mechanized, and likely an equal amount of infantries. That doesn't smell that good for an assault on Russia. Furthermore, doing so would render more or less useless most of the last four months production.

The initial plan was an attack on a still weakly defended Gibraltar, using air and naval assets from north Africa. This was a gamble, but a promising one. It doesn't seem to be feasible by now, at least not as initialy planned.

It remains that the Commonwealth economy could be crippled by a successful sub campaign, combined with raids from the fleet, all rebased in Brest. The idea of Gibraltar must not be forgotten, and the invading forces must stand ready, possibly used meanwhile for some other opportunities as can occur.

There nevertheless are two standing questions:
* attack on Yugoslavia: it must be done, followed up by the conquest of Greece. This should be easy and not require too many forces. The resources there are too tempting to ignore them.
* attack on Spain ? not unlikely, to open up the way to Gibraltar.
Can both be done together ? likely.

Objective: Install Vichy ; Collapse it rather soon. Transport troops in Hungary to attack Yugoslavia. Including the para. Bring troops to the French-Spanish border and ready to attack. Timing ? Yugoslavia, as soon as possible. Spain: spring, for a good weather and long turns preventing Commonwealth interference. Meanwhile, raid the british convoys.

Builds: some ground troops. planes of all sorts but lots of fighters, subs, amph, carriers, special troops if any -para, marines-.

In order to fulfill its objectives, Germany negociates a Vichy government.
It knows fully well that it won't hold its part of the bargain, if only because attacking Spain requires access to the complete border.

So, Vichy adminitrative groups are probably soon going to revert to free French control...

Anyway, the Japanese are annoyed to see that Indochina doesn't abide to the German agreement: they would have claimed it, and the resource there in...

The same could be said about Madagascar, which might have provided an advanced base ; but this was more dubious.

Free France is satisfied : it planned on equatorial Africa, where most of the cruiser force is based. This means that the 12 or so French cruisers will still be able to participate in the sea lanes defense.

Libreville, with a predestined name, is chosen as the new Free French Capital.

For the first time in the war, the USA seem to understand that there is a world out there. There are cries of outrage.

Many of the best French units are removed from the game.

The German Garrison east is weak.
It will have to be reinforced before January. Otherwise, the Russians might well start their own war in an untimely way...
Balancing the production to fulfill all of the German strategic decisions is not that easy.

The production in november/december 40.

The allies roll the initiative.

The axis decline to reroll, not willing to lose its +1 position for a turn where nothing serious is likely to happen.

The allies let the axis go first, for identical reasons, in the hope that the axis will get more impulses and lose their +1 position for no gain...

Germnay tries to sink an unprotected British transport in Malta. Despite the unexpected attack, the He115C fail to achieve a significant result.

Dutyfully, as every turn, the Italian send their submarines in the search of the British convoys.