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John,

I don't see too much beyond an historical expansion by Cribtop at this pace. There are pro's and con's by doing what he may end up doing. Time will tell.

From the cheaps, it seems more and more like a China focused approach. Quick recoveries in DEI may the course of action with your CV power. He can't get to auto victory only in China, so he has to come out to play somewhere else.

John 3rd and I may changes here and Cribtop told me he may try to break it. We will see.

I agree...

Perhaps he is afraid of all the extra allied CV power and isn't trying to go fast. I think it will hurt him before too long unless he is secretly building a better mousetrap.

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I would be having kittens at this point. Way too slow of an offensive.

WHERE is he going? There MUST be some sort of 'big' objective but I don't see it. Have you received any sort of Allied intelligence that might help?

Date: 42 Jan 1st -
New Year and more importantly a new month which means new airframes.

Key: TT = Torpedo; bb = ground bombardment; c = casualties; b = base hits; s = supply hits; r = runway hits; p = port hits; f = fuel hits; AV = Assault Value; DC = Depth Charged; (*) = destroyed aircraft; If odds are italics, they are the Allies; BG = Bomber Group of 48 planes (4 x 12 bomber squadrons); FG fighter group = 25 fighter planes if American

Landings:

CVs:
KB1 & 2 - One of these seems to be 3 SE of Tarawa
KB3 - 4 SE Davao headed NW
KB4 - MIA
CVEs - MIA

Allied Mini-Death Star - At Balikpapan to refuel. The Enterprise TF is fully refueled, but not the Lexington TF or the the big BCs. I hope he heads this way as I should at least get out of port after next turn.

Subs:
I-165 sinks an xAKL two south of Singapore. I'm left with just one to move troops out of Singapore.

India/Burma:
Rangoon -
Pegu -

China:
Trail to Ankang - My two new Corps arrive just in time. [:)]

Ground combat at 83,45 (near Nanyang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 12750 troops, 102 guns, 107 vehicles, Assault Value = 680

Defending force 32089 troops, 187 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 760

Japanese adjusted assault: 131

Allied adjusted defense: 844

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 6

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1169 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 63 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 21 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled

Allied ground losses:
219 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 33 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled

Assaulting units:
10th Tank Regiment
23rd Tank Regiment
5th Tank Regiment
13th Division
3rd Tank Regiment
5th Armored Car Co
9th Armored Car Co
13th Tank Regiment
9th Tank Regiment
11th Tank Regiment

Defending units:
30th Chinese Corps
67th Chinese Corps
2nd Chinese Corps
8th New Chinese Corps

SL in this hex and all the trail hexes to Ankang is 40k. I now have 42k in hex and will order the small 8th Corp out as I have another to arrive in a few days.

Malaya: -
Singapore - 6 Lily come in at night. 40 Oscars escort in 31 Sally.
Kuala Lumpur -

Philippines:
Manila -
Clark -
Lingayan - 7 Nate escort in 9 Sally & 18 Lily hitting the troops. The poorly experienced Philippine division is not enough.

Ground combat at Lingayen (79,75)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 8116 troops, 52 guns, 71 vehicles, Assault Value = 291

Defending force 4486 troops, 58 guns, 9 vehicles, Assault Value = 147

Japanese adjusted assault: 183

Allied adjusted defense: 14

Japanese assault odds: 13 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Lingayen !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker: leaders(+)

Japanese ground losses:
310 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 39 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
2245 casualties reported
Squads: 84 destroyed, 73 disabled
Non Combat: 34 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 9 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 33 (33 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 9 (9 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 2

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
1st Formosa Inf. Regiment
47th Infantry Regiment
4th Tank Regiment

Defending units:
21st PA Infantry Division
86th PS Field Artillery Battalion

Clark Field will be abandoned now as I don't have the troops to hold it and Manila.

Borneo:
Singkawang - base falls quickly with 33:11 odds

Ground combat at Singkawang (56,88)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 1229 troops, 7 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 46

Defending force 1268 troops, 15 guns, 5 vehicles, Assault Value = 7

Japanese adjusted assault: 33

Allied adjusted defense: 11

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Singkawang !!!

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
Do-24K-1: 1 destroyed

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
21 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
754 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 26 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 8 (8 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 5 (5 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 3
Units destroyed 1

Assaulting units:
III/124th Infantry Battalion
8th JAAF AF Coy

Defending units:
W Borneo Mil'ie Cdo
2e-VLG-I Sup Afd
Singkawang ML Base Force
1e-VLG-V Sup Afd

With Symon's recent changes to the Allied OOB, this base has significant Aviation Support for the Dutch, but not much in combat power. Just a friendly FYI for players that will play RA, BTS, or DBB.

Sumatra:
Medan - 18 Lily hit the AF again. Why here and not at Singapore??

SRA:
Kendari -

New Guinea/Solomons:

Central Pacific:
Canton - transports 13 hexes out (2 days) & unspotted
Christmas Island - transports 5 hexes out (1 day)

South Pacific:

North Pacific:

Australia:

Engineers:
Pearl F3

Intel:
65th Brigade at Cabanatuan (outside Manila)

Notes/Plans:
My DS is at Balikpapan refueling and will be ordered to leave next turn. Part of me strongly wants to go after KB3 (Soryu - 21Z, 24V, 24K; Hiryu - 21Z, 24V, 24K; and CVL Shoho - 18Z, 12K), but having such poor pilot quality and many having the Buffalo fighters makes me have second and third thoughts. However, I will have twice his number of fighters (120 with some still repairing after resizing). I will try to head north to intercept as I know from experience that both those CVs are rather fragile when it comes to damage they can take. John 3rd lost both to just two bomb hits in Indian Ocean in a prior game. I will place some of the SC TF out two hexes with 6 react range to soak up bombers and hits.

Stand By!![;)]

Go get 'em! May the FORCE be with you!

I am reading this, but rooting for Japan in this case. I would hate to see Japan get a bloody nose so early, especially with this very deliberate opening. Player morale is so important...no offense meant here...

Has Japan spotted the Allied Deathstar? Probably not, else why risk it?

Has Japan spotted the Allied Deathstar? Probably not, else why risk it?

Cloaking devices are working and fully operational. [:D]

IMO, Cribtop has not set out good Naval Search to this point. He may some operating out of Ambon, but none that I know of out northern Borneo or Malaya.

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Cloaking devices are working and fully operational. [:D]

Uh oh! Looks grim then for Japan...

Yikes!! This is going to be interesting. Balls of steel here, for sure.

What are your CV detection levels? If he has sniffed you I would assume a trap!

Foreshadowing....

My Dutch SC TF was spotted at Balikpapan last turn, but not my CVs
My two American BCs which everybody follows used 1000 op points refueling so nobody is moving too far next turn.
However, they have orders to move 3 hexes ENE of base.
Meanwhile, KB3 is 11 hexes ENE of Bailikpapan and is headed west.
A Japanese SC TF is above Tawi Tawi headed south.

KB1 & 2 has moved slightly further east of Tarawa.
Transports with Inf Rgt will arrive next turn at Canton.
My big transport TF for Christmas ran over an I-boat one hex out.

Will finish orders tomorrow over morning cup of Joe. [8D]

Date: 42 Jan 2nd -
Pending CV clash off Balikpapan.
Panzer Corp hits troops hard 3 SE of Ankang.

Key: TT = Torpedo; bb = ground bombardment; c = casualties; b = base hits; s = supply hits; r = runway hits; p = port hits; f = fuel hits; AV = Assault Value; DC = Depth Charged; (*) = destroyed aircraft; If odds are italics, they are the Allies; BG = Bomber Group of 48 planes (4 x 12 bomber squadrons); FG fighter group = 25 fighter planes if American

Landings:

CVs:
KB1 & 2 - Both at 142, 130 (7 ESE of Tarawa; TF slightly further south that may be headed for Baker Island.
KB3 - 74, 95 (11 ENE Balikpapan)
KB4 - MIA
CVEs - MIA

Allied Mini-Death Star - Completed refueling at Balikpapan.

Subs:
I-172 misses big transport TF just outside of Christmas Island.
Plunger misses and then get a dud hit on a big AMC at Adak. [:(]

India/Burma:
Rangoon -
Pegu -

China:
Trail to Ankang - 24 Nates with 6 Ann & 4 Sonia

Ground combat at 83,45 (near Nanyang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 3030 troops, 0 guns, 561 vehicles, Assault Value = 586

Defending force 37211 troops, 230 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 893

Japanese adjusted assault: 182

Allied adjusted defense: 706

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 3

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 78 (1 destroyed, 77 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1795 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 166 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 12 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Guns lost 24 (1 destroyed, 23 disabled)

Assaulting units:
13th Tank Regiment
5th Tank Regiment
3rd Tank Regiment
9th Armored Car Co
23rd Tank Regiment
5th Armored Car Co
10th Tank Regiment
9th Tank Regiment
13th Division
11th Tank Regiment

Defending units:
45th Chinese Corps
30th Chinese Corps
2nd Chinese Corps
67th Chinese Corps
8th New Chinese Corps

I feel like this is the "Battle of Cambrai" or another WW1 battle when tanks overwhelm the infantry. My troops are in good shape disruption wise, but the number of disabled troops is over 50% for two Corp. There are another 10 LCUs out in the clear terrain headed for this hex. I have troops moving to reinforce the flanks and some marching through Sian and then to loop down to Ankang, The question is can I get them there in time??

Loyang - the base quickly falls

Ground combat at Loyang (87,43)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 46649 troops, 421 guns, 80 vehicles, Assault Value = 1396

Defending force 2788 troops, 2 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 41

Japanese adjusted assault: 1380

Allied adjusted defense: 6

Japanese assault odds: 230 to 1 (fort level 3)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Loyang !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), preparation(-), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
67 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Allied ground losses:
2366 casualties reported
Squads: 100 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 39 destroyed, 21 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (2 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 2

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
35th Division
36th Division
37th Division
41st Division
12th Army
6th Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
15th Chinese Corps
36th Group Army

Malaya: -
Singapore - 8 Lily come in at night. 40 Oscars escort in 34 Sally flying at 20k.
Kuala Lumpur - 19 LCUs just outside base now.

Philippines:
Manila -
Clark -

Borneo:

Sumatra:
Medan -

SRA:
Kendari -

New Guinea/Solomons:

Central Pacific:
Canton - transports 6 hexes out (1 day) & unspotted. The TF will go in and possibly be totally destroyed "IF" KB1 & 2 head SE. Thought about pulling them back to Palmrya, but with them here with forts almost at 3 will require more than a Nav Gd unit to capture.
Christmas Island - transports arrived, but were spotted by I-172 just one hex out. I have 260 defensive mines here. [:)]

South Pacific:

North Pacific:
Umnak - Transport with 87th Mtn Rgt has just left Prince Rupert with an AEB. ETA is 5 days. A SC TF with 2 CLs & 6 DDs guard the base.

Australia:

Engineers:

Intel:

Notes/Plans:
My DS is at Balikpapan with refueling complete. Many of the largest warships used up 1000 op points to do so. I've ordered the DS out to be two hexes east of base. The Dutch SC TF is order to Patrol Zone three hexes to east with reaction up to 6 hexes (only TF spotted here last turn). 7 Old Clemson Class DDs are another 3 hexes to NE and set in Patrol Zone with React to 6. Both these TFs will hopefully soak up Val and Kate attacks, but maybe get to attack his CVs.

CVL Hermes is off southern tip of Java and order to meet CVs.

CL Dallas just completed repairs at Soerabaja and joins CA Chicago and 4 DDs that will head to join the DS.

I can see the trap closing in slow motion....my goodness, are you still cloaked?

Wow, this will be interesting! [X(]

The CV vs CV battle that wasn't!! [:(]

Due to needing two days to fully re-fuel the DS at the size 4 port at Balikpapan, some of my larger warships had ended the turn before using 1000 op points. Thus, my DS moved just two hexes for the day and ended up just SE of base. Cribtop moved to be off northern coast of Celebes and struck form the 'magical' 7 hex distance. He lost 26 Val, 10 Kate and 3 Zero vs 3 Allied fighters and no ships were attacked.

I would suspect that KB4 will join KB3 as the 3 CVLs are Zero heavy and then he will push forward with help from LBA.

No details or ability to post a full day's worth as he sent my his game turn file. [8|]

However, he now knows that the capture of the SRA will be vigorously contested.

Well, hitting all of those bombers with highly trained crews this early could seriously ruin his day. I would pursue aggressively at this point!

Wow, he dodged a bullet at the cost of some decent pilots though. Still a very good allied day!

It is hard to believe the carriers are there without first grabbing Jolo or something for better land based air coverage first.

The question I'm pondering now, is do I try a Full Speed run to east to try to catch KB3 before it gets back to Babeldoab?? I have to worry about Zeros reaching out to 14 hexes with Nells from Ambon. What do you guys think??

I say don't and not because I want Japan to dodge a bullet, but rather I think you will only get hit with land based air attacks. If you can get your fleet positioned where you can defend against only bombers and no escorts then it probably is worth pursuing if for no other reason than downing a lot of Japanese pilots.

You presence must come as a complete shock to Japan, and I bet it has thrown back his timetable (whatever that is) completely off. You may very well be setting the seeds for a short game.

Go dark and hit from the shadows again...I bet you get plenty of opportunity to do so.