Fischia il Vento - loki100 vs smokindave34 ... German marginal victory T94

[Joel Billings]

Great AAR. You need Antwerp! That port is the key to the Allied supply situation. Of course you have to clear all the waterways to the sea as well. Don't make the mistake the Allies made. You need to grab it and clear the waterway to it ASAP. Without it, you will always have major supply/rail issues in France.

[carlkay58]

Yes, what Joel said. I have played to the end and not gotten Antwerp and had to fight the logistics all the way. With Antwerp I probably could have gotten to the historical lines, but I did manage to reach the Elbe in one hex.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Joel Billings

Great AAR. You need Antwerp! That port is the key to the Allied supply situation. Of course you have to clear all the waterways to the sea as well. Don't make the mistake the Allies made. You need to grab it and clear the waterway to it ASAP. Without it, you will always have major supply/rail issues in France.

thank you

I made that mistake in my AI game of bypassing Antwerp and suffered for it for the rest of the game. So far my opponent hasn't really tried fanatical stay behind port defences, be interesting to see how he handles the threat to Antwerp

ORIGINAL: carlkay58

Yes, what Joel said. I have played to the end and not gotten Antwerp and had to fight the logistics all the way. With Antwerp I probably could have gotten to the historical lines, but I did manage to reach the Elbe in one hex.

aye oddly I ran out of supply when I ignored more or less on the Elbe. So this time ... of course given that Dave very much knows what he is doing I'm not sure I'll ever reach the Elbe

[loki100]

Turn 74: 2-8 December 1944

Start of December brings light snow on the ground but unfortunately blizzard conditions in the air.



So this hampers my air support but does allow ground attacks, after a bit of thinking I decided to start my attempt to push to the Rhine before the end of winter.

My VP score has improved a lot since I stopped actually fighting ....



I'll report the combat sequence in this turn with some detail. I think it shows the problem when your airpower is hampered by weather, but the dual advantages of letting supply stocks build up and concentrating your armour.

Opening gambit was the well rehearsed XX Corps + death star combination.



Calais is mine, Dunkirk next and as you can see I took Ostend and Bruges with no fighting.

Here's where I suffered for the lack of airpower. The result was masses of German reserve reactions. While its not an ideal tactic with the Western Allies (losses mean lost Vps), I decided on using an approach more common with the Soviets. Find a salient, hit it hard enough to force the reserves to react ...



and again, and again ....



You get the idea.

Now for the pay off (I hope). 2 British Army hits the German defences on the Brussels-Namur line hard.


(note no annoying reserves)

Then the tanks go in


(this time there was a reserve reaction but from a single infantry regiment)

Having cleared one corridor, time to complete the encirclement


(ok, so there are still more reserves)


My original plan was to then use 1 US north of Liege so as to avoid being trapped by the Maas/Meuse near Maastricht. The appearance of more damn reserves put me off that idea.



So instead 1 US swung south to hopefully attack where the reserves are used up. This reinforced 2 British, and the opening attack cleared those stubborn defenders



And then started to deepen the exploitation



Around Belfort, I made some gains. But I'll spare you that battle report.

So after all that slaughter, I have the start of a breakthrough and 8 armoured divisions that saw no action in this turn,



To put it into context, here's the losses for that turn.



I really need to able to put the tactical bombers to work on the German reserve formations.

[jwolf]

My VP score has improved a lot since I stopped actually fighting ....

That line is pretty funny. [:)]

The fighting and losses did seem more akin to the Eastern Front. As you said, without the tac bombers the Allies really suffer.

[Helpless]

Start of December brings light snow on the ground but unfortunately blizzard conditions in the air.

Hmm. Blizzard usually means heavy snow. Afaik, L(mp) can't shift to blizzard.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

My VP score has improved a lot since I stopped actually fighting ....

That line is pretty funny. [:)]

The fighting and losses did seem more akin to the Eastern Front. As you said, without the tac bombers the Allies really suffer.

aye there is something depressing when you realise you outperform yourself on the turns you do nothing [;)], also looking again it seems as if Dave got caught out with his EF allocation

ORIGINAL: Helpless

Start of December brings light snow on the ground but unfortunately blizzard conditions in the air.

Hmm. Blizzard usually means heavy snow. Afaik, L(mp) can't shift to blizzard.

you're right [:)]. Double checked, I was trying to work out why my airpower was so poor this turn and so devastating in the next one. The issue was that this turn it was snowing in the air, next turn shifts to clear skies (and snow on the ground), the result is my tactical air feast on all those German formations.

[jwolf]

tactical air feast on all those German formations

Yummy! Sounds good! [8D]

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

tactical air feast on all those German formations

Yummy! Sounds good! [8D]

I'm sure that various animal cruelty laws actually say you really shouldn't feed Tigers to Typhoons ... but I'd recommend as the core diet of any WiTW game [8D]

[loki100]

Turn 75: 9-15 December 1944

Not surprisingly last turn's slaughter made a huge dent in my VP score ... comes out of using the Allies as you'd use the Red Army.



First thing is yet again the Germans really were unsporting, yep they attacked.



Broke open the pocket but the units I'd encircled are still vulnerable.

Now the problem that is heading their way is that in my turn, the weather became near perfect, snow on the ground and clear skies.

Its time to eat ... just to make the point, note that SS Pzr Division which has 9 cv before the airphase.

So my air attack was a series of overlapping missions, some going for units, a lot of interdiction missions. Both the losses from last turn and that level of air cover should reduce the problems of massive reserve reactions.



But, before the main course, another port garrison is fed to the XX Corps-Death Star combo.



I'll not bother with the combat detail this time around. Key was that in a sequence of attacks I only had one reserve reaction to worry about, and that to the north of Namur where I'd put down less air power.



This shows the last of my attacks, an opportunistic hasty attack to inflict more disruption.



Note our friendly SS Pzr division is now stacked with a Pzr Grenadier division, its gone from being a scary 9 cv behemoth to a 3 cv whimp – purely as a result of a sustained air attack.

So theres the end, the divisions I trapped last turn should be culled next turn. I'd be surprised if the Germans can manage to counterattack as I have such high interdiction scores all over the front line.



Losses were grim again ... I forgot to take this at the time so its lost the in-turn data, but I've noted some of the main changes.



To me that turn hammers in the core message of WiTE. For the allies its all about airpower.

[jwolf]

Suppose, for the sake of argument, that you could trap and destroy a lot of the German units on the front line. Would that turn the VP around to give you a draw? Or if not, what would?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Suppose, for the sake of argument, that you could trap and destroy a lot of the German units on the front line. Would that turn the VP around to give you a draw? Or if not, what would?

I'm not sure to be honest. While I have made small mistakes, I think the current score reflects how I botched the Italian campaign. If I'd done better then I think Dave would not have been able to bank all those partisan VPs (by being able to allocate larger than needed garrisons) and of course I'd have more city points. That might put the current score just outside the 'draw' range.

If I capture the Rurh and the Rhine cities that will help a lot - both the city VP and occupied German factories and manpower centres count as destroyed for bombing.

As such his army is only of value as a tool to defend his VPs, everytime we fight, I lose VP and it doesn't affect him (directly).

He's on a run of bad luck with the weather, I've just sent back the third turn in succession with clear skies so suddenly the Ruhr looks feasible rather than impossible to reach.

[Joel Billings]

What's the OB screen look like these days?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Joel Billings

What's the OB screen look like these days?

I've included an overview in the next post. I'm ok in part as I've disbanded all non US AA units and a couple of the British army groups.

Its also clear that the recent patches have really sorted out the early problems with allied bombing - while I've not shut down (rightly) the bulk of the German industry I've managed to create a huge choke point around fuel production and tank replacements

[loki100]

Turn 76: 16-22 December 1944

Again the Germans made some attacks. This time nothing decisive and I'd suspect they paid a high price in attrition for their efforts.



Supply situation. Notice that I now have 3 pretty large depots (Bruges, Ostend and Valenciennes) quite close to the front, I'm going to need that capacity as ammunition usage is out of control. So the additional capacity from the Channel Ports is very welcome, but I am more than using it up.



VP, reflects the fighting, not much I can do about this at the moment



Bombing, usual mix of really intensive ground strikes and interdiction. Only 4 engined bombers hitting the Reich now.



That generated mostly #4 interdiction with some hexes over 6. At the moment, with clear skies, I'm running my tactical bombers into the ground. They can rest either when snow returns or this phase of the campaign is over.

First attack was to eliminate the German units trapped in the previous turn.

As with last turn, the level of interdiction meant very few German reserve reactions. The opening set of attacks drove a deep wedge between Brussels and Namur. This will, hopefully, allow me to swing in behind Brussels and Antwerp.



Then I attacked south, I don't want to get trapped by the Maas below Maastricht, so its important to have one line of attack to the south of the Meuse. This was limited, but it encircled Namur and sets up an angle of attack for next turn.

Down in the south, 1 FF storms Belfort.



And French armour makes steady progress towards Luxembourg.



Combat situation at the end of the turn.



I'll put in the main industry and resource pool data.

First are my key pools.




(only shows the more important types or where I have some shortages. I think this confirms that using Hurricane II as FB {ie rocket armed} really pays off)

No real problems with aircraft. I've managed the recon plane assets better in this game and I have enough to get me to the end of game.

Here's some of the metrics.

Total men seems to reflect that the Germans are being ground down



Their armour has really suffered over the last turns. Its been the primary target of my Typhoons and Tempests as well as forced to fight time after time to try and stall my offensive.



This maybe another reason why there have been less armoured interventions. I have been bombing the main synthetic fuel sites and it seems to be paying off



In terms of aircraft, the Luftwaffe is notionally quite powerful



But the real issue is inexperienced pilots. Watching the turn resolution their operational losses have become huge.



Actual supply stores seem to be ok for the Germans, but I'm hoping that hitting rail yards and interdiction attacks on rail lines means little is reaching their front line units.



Here's the East Front. We have the EF box on, so no idea how to interpret that but Dave mentioned he'd had to send some stuff to the EF to stop Uncle Joe getting too feisty.

[jwolf]

It seems to me that you made good progress in that turn, plus cleaning out the small pocket. I'm surprised you lose VP overall for that. Are the combat losses really weighted against you? [&:]

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

It seems to me that you made good progress in that turn, plus cleaning out the small pocket. I'm surprised you lose VP overall for that. Are the combat losses really weighted against you? [&:]

yes, had a sequence of 3 turns with clear skies and snow on the ground. In combination that is pretty deadly to the Germans. To be fair in this game, I think I've been lucky with the weather, it wasn't till November that I had to deal with heavy mud and so far winter has seen more clear skies than snow storms.

The loss-vp mechanic is one sided, ie its not a relative allied-german losses but purely constructed off allied losses. I think its right as the allies were the only side of the 3 main armies at this stage with constraints on the slaughter of their own troops.

Britain had to be careful as its manpower was used up, and many Generals had been junior officers in WW1 so were very unwilling to adopt anything like attritional tactics if they could help it. Cassino was seen by both officers and men as a bit of a betrayal as they were back to posting 'victories' where the gains were in yards. The US clearly had the manpower, but again was unwilling to see attritional style losses.

Most of the CW nations were very unwilling to let the British directly command their own troops. Again a legacy of WW1 where the Australians and New Zealanders in particular had a strong belief their units had been used as shock forces to minimise losses among British units. Not helped by the enthusiasm of some British commanders for hanging Australian troops out of the line and relying on them in combat.

I'm less sure this is true (at least the bit about protecting British troops), not least there is consistent evidence that the British high command was quite happy to take heavy losses in formations deemed troublesome. The Ulster Division (36th) took horrific losses on the first day of the Somme when it was thrown against the strongest part of the German line - it just happened to be mostly made up of people who had been in the UVF before the outbreak of war and who came very close to outright armed rebellion in late 1913.

So its one of the mechanics that force you to use the Western Allies in a very different way. The other reason not to do repeated attrition attacks is you can burn off your ammo stocks - which I managed to do after the end of the next turn. My supply lines are ok, but till I get Antwerp, they are fragile and vulnerable to too heavy demands.

[loki100]

Turn 77: 23-29 December 1944

Another turn of bad news for the Germans with cold clear skies.



Gives you some idea of my bombing pattern, its not as chaotic as it looks as it mixes direct strikes on frontline formations with interdiction attacks where I think the reserves might be. That produced a decent pattern of #4 interdiction values for the key sectors.



Supply network is in pretty good shape. Taking the ports in western Belgium and the Pays Bas has really helped, even if the network is overloaded (all the yellow lines). Problem is all these sustained attacks are burning off ammunition quicker than I can deliver it to the front line units.



Ground attacks started by capturing Namur, and then making progress behind Brussels and towards Liege. To the south the French armour captured Luxembourg. The idea of this was to test if there were any major German reserves lurking in the Ardennes.



I then turned my attention to making gains south of the Meuse. As before my logic here is that if I stay north of the Meuse there is a real risk of being trapped by the Maas (at least till the rivers freeze).

This attack was pretty unremarkable but I think it shows that I am now regularly getting final odds >4-1.



End of turn, a decent dent in the German lines. I'm putting in a lot of pressure both to cut off Antwerp and Brussels and to the south of the Meuse.

Worth noting that a couple of divisions from US 3 Army crossed the Rhine and captured the Walcheren peninsula. Useful for opening up the supply line to Antwerp (when I take it) and as a threat to the northern flank of the Germans defending Antwerp.

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: loki100
The idea of this was to test if there were any major German reserves lurking in the Ardennes.

The Germans would never put armor in the Ardennes in December 1944. No, never. [;)]

BTW when will you take Bastogne? [:'(]

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

ORIGINAL: loki100
The idea of this was to test if there were any major German reserves lurking in the Ardennes.

The Germans would never put armor in the Ardennes in December 1944. No, never. [;)]

BTW when will you take Bastogne? [:'(]

exactly ... but one must always consider the outside possibility of a-historical behaviour [;)]

Bastogne et al is weather dependent, I've now learnt the hard way that there are few gains to attacking if my tactical air is grounded and after 3 turns of clear cold skies the weather is about to turn for the worse