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T64 – 6 September 1942

So just as I was thinking the Soviets were really off balance ...



The result was a mostly quiet turn, limited attacks by 2 Pzr and 4A towards Tambov, mostly failed due to the substantial fortifications now in place there. 9 and 2A made some gains around Vyazma-Kaluga. Seems that both sides are digesting the capture of Tula and preparing for the battle for the next 2 cities on this sector.

4PzrA continued its offensive towards Grozny. Increasingly well supplied, the infantry broke the Soviet lines and the motorised divisions were able to exploit. At the same time the Soviet mountain formations were pushed back into the central Caucasus.



Quick catch up on the rest of the world. Post-Dieppe, situation in W Europe is a worry (mainly the risk of shedding VP), not much I can do till the scheduled redeployments take place. The rest are ok, a bit short but no real issues (and not much I can do in any case).



Both sides fully committed to the map with limited reserves (I expect to see the Soviet reserve jump now they have that extra manpower).



More detail on the OOB



Supply traces in the south, still a lot of long distance but now good for the main assault formations. Most of the really long stuff relates to 4 Rumanian along the Black Sea coastal area.



For the centre, fairly neat.



Freight table, 4 Pzr still a bit short of its needs but a super-depot will start working next turn just behind the current front.



Loss table, surprisingly high for what seemed like a quiet turn

T65 – 13 September 1942

First hint of poor weather, just light rain almost everywhere, ground remains mostly clear, but some instances of light mud.

Super-depot supporting the Grozny operation starts to work properly. No build up as its all being claimed on arrival.



The Italians conquer Mt Elbrus



Of more real importance, 4 PzrA makes more gains towards Grozny, although the inevitable Soviet fortification belt is clearly already in place.

Not surprisingly, fresh Soviet command formation on the sector.

So far with Heinrici's corps I've managed the trick of the units that attack don't advance, so keeping a reasonably high CPP. That will break down next turn but my hope is to have reached a line very close to Grozny by then.

Also very much the reward for sorting out the logistics on this sector. 40+MP mobile formations are much more dangerous than if they have 25-28 MP – elements of 8A may possibly fall into a pocket next turn.



Most of the rest of the front was quiet. That the Soviets have given up on their incessent hit and run attacks is actually a bit of a worry, I fear they are planning something more structured.

On my side, I disengaged 2 PzrA and 4A from Tambov, reorganised 2 and 9 Armies to cover Tula and started an offensive with 3 PzrA. A warning of turns to come when attacking with infantry is no longer feasible and just how tough Soviet Rifle Corps are on the defensive. But we are at the stage where its fight and beat the damn things, or accept the final targets are out of reach.





By contrast, conventional rifle divisions, even well stacked, remain an easy target – if you use a complete Pzr Corps on them.



But not risking any exploitation. I have time on my side (to some extent) and the way to both Tambov and Ryazan is a Kursk style commitment.



Which is not going to generate the loss ratio I would like to see



Soviets have pretty clearly used up that manpower allocation immediately by filling out their on map formations.



Backed up by a view on their reserves, enough left to replace what they lost at Tula.



More generally, the frustrating bit for me is I have 1 PzrA sat doing nothing while the others run themselves ragged. Can't release it, and I need a strategic reserve but the temptation to use it is very high – and, I think, best ignored.

Congrats to the Victorious Alpini


The Coast road to Sukhumi looks open, what are the chances of taking Grozny ?





1st Gebirgs-Division moves up to support the Alpini




I see your close to Tambov but there are a lot of troops from 62 Army blocking the way with the rain now falling can 2nd Pz Armee break through ?

yes I was very pleased to take Mt Elbrus .. even if its not worth much

The Soviets have what looks like an army of infantry across the various ports and a mountain division force on the south side of the Caucasus. Given I have some horrific MP supply traces already, as the weather worsened i was content to retreat back to the northern edge.

Tambov and Grozny become very much the focus for the next phase. I'm on the verge of an auto-win but the Soviets are building up too fast now (NM and TOE changes). So at some stage I need to decide to cut my losses, accept the HWM and settle in for the second part of the game or push for that elusive last set of VP. There are enough around the Caspian Sea to get me over the threshold.

I'm starting to think with hindsight, going for the Caucasus should have been my main operation and the Tula-Tambov-Ryazan offensive very much secondary. But hindsight is useful, and sometimes misleading.

The nearest comparable game was Gunulf's and he was able to retain the strategic initiative into 1943 but I think I'm facing a much larger Red Army

I think you should get 1 VP for taking Mt Elbrus. Give players an incentive, even if a very small one, to actually bother to go for it. It would symbolize the value of the propaganda photo

exactly ... it proves you were there.

One of the Scottish clan chiefs had to send a snowball to the King in mid-June every year to show he still owned the clan lands around Ben Wyvis (I'm not sure that Medieval Scotland had the sort of science needed to prove it came from the right mountain - but that was the rule) ... so if I can get a snowball back to Berlin that has to be worth a TB bonus at the least?

T66 – 20 September 1942

Again Soviets mostly on the defensive, some small attacks but nothing structured.They are either under serious pressure (implausible given the size of some of the stacks) or really up to something big.

Main depot for 4 PzrA still working on a receive and allocate model. But at least that, plus the air supply, is pushing quite a lot into that sector.



Anyway, partly out of concern at Soviet activity, partly as I really need a close focus, only two operations this turn.

In the Caucasus, last turn's outflanking move produced a decent pocket. So let Heinrici's formations regain CPP and concentrated on completing their encirclement. Grozny itself is now on the front line.

In the Caucasus, various mountain formations threaten to envelop some of their 31A. I need to do this or pull back as soon as the supply traces are scary. All the formations here are on Pri 1 – no point wasting trucks trying to resupply them.



For AGC, made a decision to concentrate on Tambov. Its only a few hexes – admittedly with massive fortifications and feasibly can be taken in the 3-4 turns before the autumn rains. Reconfigure 3 PzrA as a reserve and to hold the flanks – all the evidence is of a large build up on that sector (and I know it already has most of their better formations).



Losses reflect the lower tempo. If the pocket near Grozny holds that will be a useful late bonus in terms of Soviet casualties.



Practically I want the 32 VP for Grozny and Tambov before mid-October. That gives me a HWM of 738 (and a core city count of 640). In theory Ryazan pushes me over 750, if I can take it and hold everything up to 1 January 1943. The issue is less can I take it – though I have serious doubts - and more can I hold all the exposed locations. I'll be badly stretched out and the Soviets will have to react or face an early defeat.

Geography doesn't help going for Ryazan as my inevitable long flank on the Oka (and need to keep Tula secure) will pull off most of my infantry.

I suspect their lack of localised responses at the moment is simply down to waiting, I either become stretched or have to accept a limit to my gains.



Generally supply net is starting to come back into place. Not worried about the small shortfalls in 18, 11 or 16A, situation for 4 PzrA is not bad given where its positioned.



Quick truck recap.

Over 90% truck/unit (but have lost another 10% into the freight system), other values more or less static. Clearly I need to resolve some of my more over-extended operations before the shift to heavy mud or usage/damage will become a real problem.



Shortfall in Western Europe will be made up by mid-October – ideally I don't want to shed any VP while I'm trying to push the HWM as high as possible

loki100 wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 5:15 pm yes I was very pleased to take Mt Elbrus .. even if its not worth much

The Soviets have what looks like an army of infantry across the various ports and a mountain division force on the south side of the Caucasus. Given I have some horrific MP supply traces already, as the weather worsened i was content to retreat back to the northern edge.

Tambov and Grozny become very much the focus for the next phase. I'm on the verge of an auto-win but the Soviets are building up too fast now (NM and TOE changes). So at some stage I need to decide to cut my losses, accept the HWM and settle in for the second part of the game or push for that elusive last set of VP. There are enough around the Caspian Sea to get me over the threshold.

I'm starting to think with hindsight, going for the Caucasus should have been my main operation and the Tula-Tambov-Ryazan offensive very much secondary. But hindsight is useful, and sometimes misleading.

The nearest comparable game was Gunulf's and he was able to retain the strategic initiative into 1943 but I think I'm facing a much larger Red Army

Don't know if you have seen this or anyone else here, though the vid is 2 years old, but i watched it not that long ago and enjoy what Mark Felton produces.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ih_oxs63ugc

tm1 wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 8:20 pm ....

Don't know if you have seen this or anyone else here, though the vid is 2 years old, but i watched it not that long ago and enjoy what Mark Felton produces.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ih_oxs63ugc

its good and interesting. Small confession, I've actually climbed Elbrus (at various times in the period from 89-99 climbed there, Tajikistan - Pamirs and the Tien Shan) and its technically pretty easy, there are a few other peaks much harder. At one stage my technical mountaineering Russian was first rate, even if I could never hold a normal conversation.

There was a short period at the end of the USSR when some parts opened up and before the post-Soviet authoritarian regimes got full control again (or bits blew up into civil war like Tajikistan).

T67 – 27 September 1942

Turn events are mildly frustrating





E-Horthy joins in the game of pointlessly changing senior commanders



Main depot for 4 PzrA still working on a receive/allocate routine.

This turn dismantle the super-depot and push the railhead closer to Grozmy.



Two main areas in the Caucasus, Italian mountain divisions try to outflank the Soviet 31A but worsening weather conditions mean a retreat to the northern edge of the mountains will be needed in the next few weeks.

More importantly, the pocket from last week is destroyed and 4 PzrA reaches the outskirts of Grozny.



Fighting at Tambov ceases to have any subtlety.







The Soviets have tried a few small attacks over recent weeks and took really heavy losses (fail or win) unless they use their few Gds formations (the defeat near Tambov is fairly typical).

So I think they are re-organising and hoping that they can defend Tambov simply by staying on the defensive. Unlike e-Adolf, I'm keeping a close eye on my flanks, hence 3 PzA completely disengaged.



Pocket near Grozny really pushed Soviet losses up despite most of the front being static.



And they are still no where near 7m (on map) but it looks like they are breeding tanks in the reserve.



I reckon I can take Grozny (even if they have been building up there), not sure about Tambov and Ryazan is out of reach.

some time ago we had conversation about Soviet tank losses

and you told that devs need to collect data before making changes, which is fine

but how much more data do they need?
Soviet tanks suffer enormous losses since i started to play and it was before 01.15 patch...

being a closed forum member can you bring this up?

i am sure you have more examples of almost 100% losses in one battle
even if they are medium or heavy tanks

if you refer to the first battle report then I can't see whats wrong. The Soviets attacked 2 German divisions, well backed by SU in a battle where I had complete air superiority (and the bombers were Stukas). Since 1 Cav Corps was still there in my phase (when it routed) I assume it had been moved some distance so its feasible their armour had damaged elements and fatigue even before the first battle.

more widely, the whole battle was a slaughter as the Soviets pressed home an attack they should have broken off.

Equally at the moment the 'devs' are mostly having a much needed holiday.

Evidence comes from long games where losses can be evaluated, not chucking up individual instances with little regard to what is going on around it.

The other bit - and you seem to keep missing this - the battle report works on a linear relationship.

Element destroyed=all destroyed
Element damaged = no destroyed

The loss table refines both sides of this relationship and the logistics phase does a further recalculation

But, seriously, I can't see what is wrong there - the Soviets did take huge armoured losses, one reason for their approach to production.

unfortunately my Soviet game ended in 41 with a victory and in my current game i am still on t11 so i do not have a lot of screenshots to provide
but there were plenty of them in your game vs Steve

what do i see is that if Soviets are forced to retreat - they suffer 70-100% AFV losses, which is just crazy
while panzers route and lose 10-20 tanks

and this Soviet tank losses looks strange

as lvl 1 fortification is without a mines vs tanks, if i recall correctly from a manual
so why they are dying like flies?

it is like with VVS
no matter what you do - you are wiped

Really don't want this to get derailed into another set of assertions around the game mechanics.

For that battle, my guess is the Cav Corps (with the attached tank brigades) moved to combat - I make that assumption on the basis it was in the hex when I counter-attacked, and he is very careful at not letting me get a hit on his mobile assets.

It attacked into a wave of Stukas that had complete air protection, remember that the GS bit of a battle is resolved first so that produced a load of disrupted/damaged elements
My corps commander decided to let the 88mm AA guns have some target practice
They hit 2 good divisions

Judging by their wider losses, pretty much everything went wrong that could have gone wrong.

So, I'd declare that WAD

What is highly questionable is the VVS getting wiped out, yes I should have won given the relative commitment but nothing like that. And that simply is keying off the relationship between skill and NM for Soviet fighter pilots as those losses remove any chance to gain skill/experience via combat.

so far you are the only one who is having active AAR that go into late game, so i thought it would be a good place to discuss game mechanics and etc, but i understand your position
thanks for your time and gl

Stamb wrote: Fri Jun 17, 2022 12:14 pm so far you are the only one who is having active AAR that go into late game, so i thought it would be a good place to discuss game mechanics and etc, but i understand your position
thanks for your time and gl

You say this has been raised many times and the 'devs' need to address it above. The change that is driving this was to lower the chance of low exp armour firing so as to reduce what were claimed to be excessive German tank losses in 1941. We have clear evidence - not least the comparison tables I've done around this AAR - that that is now WAD. What is not known is where does that lead us in wider game balance.

One constructed version says that means even stronger Pzr divisions into the mid-game making it even easier for German players to lock down any Soviet offensive. Against that is (a) the tanks the Germans use in 43-44 are not the ones that were saved from destruction in 1941; and, (b) that the Soviets start to gain from a combination of lots of tanks with mounting experience in 1943+ so in turn deliver more hits.

In a game with this many feedback routines there are so many variables. In terms of geographical gains clearly compared to my gave vs Steven I have conquered far more - that may be down to more tanks or it maybe down to no longer listening to the views of those who haven't played this phase and were describing WiTE1. Because, due to that consensus, in that game the only reason I bothered to play on is a firm belief the Soviet player deserves their chance on the strategic offensive and an equally firm belief that you can learn a lot by playing out transitional phases -even if its going wrong.

So to go back to your view the Soviets have excess tank losses. As you say, its been said so yes, more than happy to discuss game issues here but there are limits. The forum is full of threads announcing this or that is fundamentally wrong - some of them may well be right, or lead to useful changes but for various reasons I've no great desire to engage with them.

Anyway, here's 2 bonus posts that do indeed place where this game is in wider context.

Spring-Summer 1942

So a good time for a more reflective (and comparative) post.

Here's the summary table (and a comparison to my last HtH):



Few things to note, one big change is my tank losses are still running at 60% (and I have been using them in direct combat when I see a need).

On the German side I am up a net 300k manpower, which is good going into the next phase. And of course in 1943 I'll get the 'Stalingrad' increases – with no intention of emulating a Stalingrad.

Soviet numbers are interesting. If you add up in use+reserve+losses it comes out much the same (14.5m vs 14,7m) but the spread is very different. Losses are down about 750k but far more of the manpower is assigned to formations.

My truck ratio is much the same but I think more is pulled into the logistics system. A view supported by the lower NSS output (that is heavily influenced by volume and distance – and clearly distance is up). I've squeezed down demand (esp for AGN) and actually have decent enough supply reaching the various combat commands.

Overall its a bit of an odd trade off. I've destroyed less formations (if you count a corps as 3 divisions) and losses (both sides) are down quite a lot. In the end it was the losses inflicted in this phase that won me the last game. I think artillery losses are a good proxy for destroyed formations and my guess is the Soviets have had more, but weaker, formations on map.

Clearly in terms of territorial gains, the 2 games are not comparable.

Turning to my infantry, and in particular the rifle squads.



This is better than it had been on T37, German median morale is 3 over NM (they have won a lot of battles) and the combat core of the German divisions is high. The Rumanians pretty much as you'd expect and the Hungarians just a ,little over NM.

Really AGN has been static all the last 6 months, and had the single most important event. Over most of the front I made a few gains in the April-May period and then dug in. Clearly the decisive event was the fall of Leningrad.



The contrast to the centre and south is stark. AGC started just clinging to Kursk and is now over the Don and along the southern line of the Oka. What was AGS started badly weakened around Stalino.

This map scale makes it clear how much we are both concentrated in a small place in the Caucasus. I'm relaxed about the huge gap – they can't supply if they risk a move and unless that is combined with a massive attack from Stalingrad, 1 PzrA is well placed to deal with any incursion. Generally this is a sector where the E-W rails are not very favourable to the Soviets.

I do have, not shown, some deep fort belts ready for when needed. The good thing from my point of view is if I take Grozny I can then give up a lot of space for little VP cost and perhaps pocket any over-confident advance

Spring-Summer 1942

As in the regular reports, that has been grim. On a few turns I felt the Germans had overwhelmed my ability to refit/reinforce but in part by running down quiet sectors, I just managed to repair a front line. By about August, I was regularly having to place the Gds Rifle Corps in the front just to block off certain approaches. The fear was of the Germans managing to turn that into a pocket.

Trying to use the VVS in this phase is a disaster. I often had plenty of bombers, but almost no escorts so had to rest the entire air force for multiple turns. Its not just a matter of having less good fighters, its that you can't build experience. By contrast my U2s have bombed their way to high experience:



Leaving them on auto for upgrades has seen a number of formations swap to Sturmoviks over time. When the airgroup size expands, I'll disband a number of these and allocate the high experience pilots to the Il-2s.

Layout of the fronts has become much as expected. However for some time Voronezh Front was actually holding Stalingrad and the SW approach, its redeployment is recent.

Clearly at the moment, the axis are attacking on 2 very narrow sectors, I think I can hold both. Earlier in the Summer this sort of hex by hex battle would have been a disaster but I now have enough 50+ morale/exp formations (supplemented by Gds) to actually win defensive battles – and not to have to immediately pull that unit out for a refit.

In turn, this creates the basis for a plan. No gain any more to isolated attacks, they were useful to divert and slow the German offensive but I still lose a lot, and they are costly when that happens. Need to force a major retreat.

As a gamble, I've really weakened the Stalingrad defence, the Germans haven't really pushed there and I doubt they will this late in the year. Equally the E-W rail link there is limited. If I can break out around Voronezh, anything to the south has to retreat. So Voronezh and Don Fronts are starting to build up. Central, West and Kalinin Fronts are already relatively strong – with my best formations.



OOB for the northern tier, at the moment configured just to defend. The better elements are clustered around Vyazma where they are operating with Kalinin Front but under the command of NW Front.

The Coastal Op Grp at Osinovets is my best hope of breaking out – the Germans at the moment just have a regimental screen but I need to be able to put the wider sector under pressure before that is worthwhile.



Along the Oka, since for some time the various Tank Army HQ had very low TOE used some normal commands to hold the bulk of the armour. Of those 30A, 57A and 52A are essentially tank formations, 5A and 24A are probably the best formations in the Red Army.

Will allocate Malinovsky to a Front command soon.



Of those Bryansk and SW Front have been the main forces holding the line behind the Don and defending Tambov. Voronezh Front has the potential to be a powerful mobile force – just it needs time to build up and improve its command structure. As maybe clear, it doesn't have much armour despite the notional designations of some armies.



Don Front is another in transition to being an offensive force. Stalingrad Front will remain essentially defensive – my expectation is it will advance slowly as the Germans retreat,



N Cauc has had a massive build up to try and cling to Grozny – I never expected the Germans to move so far, so fast and still have high mobility so was almost completely overwhelmed. This has messed up other build ups but no choice. T Cauc is 2 armies clinging to the Black Sea ports, 31A is almost all mountain divisions.

Clearly neither of these has any mobility – I will try to improve the situation for N Cauc.



As predictable, no real supply problems.



Slowly building up a stock of Corps. On map have 22 Rifle (8 Gds), 13 Cavalry (5 Gds) and 18 Tank. In the reserve have 6 Mech corps fitting out and will start to generate a few more Tank Corps – they will fill out the obvious gaps in the OOB but will need a few more turns to reach a decent level of experience.

Outside the Corps have 3 Gds Rifle divisions, 2 Gds Rifle brigades and 11 Gds artillery formations (excl Rocket units). Should see some of the armour convert to Gds once that becomes feasible.

Now starting to convert formations to Corps far more often as the fronts settle down.

So, just, have survived this phase, but will need to start regaining territory fairly soon.

.
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