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RangerJoe wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:54 am Oh WOW! You will have the Japanese take off fully loaded and then fly individually to Oahu to bomb because fuel is so precious that they Japanese crews can't afford to form up and fly together. So single aircraft will fly that far across the open ocean with no modern GPS system. One lone bomber attacking first will ruin everything. So they will be greeted by aroused defenders since they can't be allowed to attack first. Especially since the time of the attack is so important so the higher level commanders will still be eating breakfast or traveling to their duty station.

Once the carrier planes begin the raid, radio silence is over. They can be coordinated by radio. You don't need GPS to find Oahu, just a compass. It's huge. And, historically, the raid planes used Honolulu radio to guide them.

Curtis Lemay wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:24 pm
I envision the destroyers with the troops to break away soon enough to land them the night before the raid - perhaps assisted by spies on the islands serving as pathfinders. They would lie low till time for the raid to begin. Then, upon word that the raid was underway, they strike - taking the port and airfield and overwhelming any military (if any) on the islands. After all, this would be Sunday in peacetime.

warspite1

This plan essentially does everything humanely possible to ensure the PH raid does not see the US forces surprised.....

Land them, in the Hawaiian Islands, having sailed to the HI alone....

TulliusDetritus wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:24 pm

warspite1 wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:11 pm - How many Bettys are going to fly to Pearl, bomb the island and then land on Maui or wherever?

Bombing from the Marshalls is impossible. It has to be 1) transfer to "occupied island" and 2) arm, refuel there, fly and bomb x target and then come back.

Again, the fully loaded range of the Betty is 3132 miles. Eniwetok to Oahu is 2715 miles. After participating in the raid they will still have 417 miles of range left. Maui is 115 miles from Oahu.

Also, note that if something does go wrong with Maui, they can land on Kauai. They could then transfer to Maui once it is finally captured by taking off under minimum load.

warspite1 wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:30 pm Land them, in the Hawaiian Islands, having sailed to the HI alone....

At night.

Curtis Lemay wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:35 pm

warspite1 wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:30 pm Land them, in the Hawaiian Islands, having sailed to the HI alone....

At night.

warspite1

It doesn't matter. The Japanese - and the second wave was proof of this (as if any was needed) can't afford to be detected. You believe the Japanese would sanction destroyers sailing up to, along, and through the Hawaiian Islands so they could park offshore and await the attack in the desperate hope they weren't detected?

All the Japanese would need just one bit of bad luck and their war against the US, the British and the Dutch has just ended in total disaster....

warspite1 wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:56 pm I think you'll find your whole sentence was impossible

I don´t think this what if is 100% possible. I don´t think 100% impossible either. All I know is the Americans sent reinforcements to PH like crazy. Just in case. Knox and King were worried, this is abundantly clear in the papers.

No one will prove anything here, it is just a what if. And let's face it, you love them, so enjoy

My Spain what if approach is *very* simple. I pay attention to human geography and history. The former tells me (yes or yes) that in the late 30s there were two types of scenarios (battlegrounds with Germans involved). The Low Countries, Belgium (a very sophisticated industrialised society, even more than the UK) and France and then the rest (I am going to ignore Scandinavian Denmark and Norway). This elite group poses little problems: good roads, infrastructures etc etc etc.

Now the rest... everywhere you will find terrible roads, bad infrastructures. It's the classic poverty and backwardness. And this includes the USSR: here it's tricky. This state was already a massive industrial powerhouse when the nazi hordes invaded in ´41 (this is the main cause that explains why they survived and striked back. Lend Lease? Do NOT make me laugh...). But roads were not a priority in the five-year plans (starting in 1928) ergo the famous bad roads the German generals mentioned.

So this is the human geography. We can freely ignore the different climates and topography as they are irrelevant. But plenty of rough terrain in the Balkans and Greece.

And now what has lady History to tell us? Some cold objective facts. The Wehrmacht trashed and conquered Poles, Danes, Norwegians, Dutch, Belgians, French, British (only the BEF), Yugoslavians, Greeks... but somehow, there's apparently a cosmic force out there that says "nine divisions" would stop them

When you know the human geography and history then you can understand why this argument seems (IS to me) absurd. It's not having the crystal ball, it's understanding how it is... Turkey, on the account of bigger forces and relatively far from the third Reich core, seems on paper more serious though.

OK then.

With this Japanese what if I try to do the same. They planned and executed dozens of "land forces + grab airfield + bring planes + subdue the enemy" operations. Dozens. PH is just one more base. Very far from the core indeed. As impressive on paper as Singapore or Luzon. A big gamble on top of the other mega gamble ever: waging war against the two biggest naval powers. So what? They're crazy enough, or desperate, as you prefer

Worst case scenario for Japan? War ends in ´43 or ´44. Best case scenario? Atomic bombs will be doing the talking circa summer ´45... as long as a suitable airfield is available, I know, I know.

Curtis Lemay wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:34 pm Again, the fully loaded range of the Betty is 3132 miles. Eniwetok to Oahu is 2715 miles. After participating in the raid they will still have 417 miles of range left. Maui is 115 miles from Oahu.

From the Smithsonian Institute:

"At that time, the requirements were unprecedented for a twin-engine, land-based attack bomber: flying at a top speed of 398 kph (247 mph) and an altitude of 3,000 m (9,845 ft), the new bomber had to fly a distance of 4,722 km (2,933 miles) without a torpedo or equivalent weight in bombs. When carrying an 800-kg (1,768 lb) torpedo or the same weight in bombs, the Navy needed the bomber to fly at least 3,700 km (2,300 mi)."


I'm surprised because no mod or vanilla WitP AE itself makes this mission even remotely possible. And the community is full of hardcore freaks that dig and then dig some more to get the data. Needless to say no offense intended, they do a great job

Another model of Betty?

TulliusDetritus wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 5:16 pm
My Spain what if approach is *very* simple.......but somehow, there's apparently a cosmic force out there that says "nine divisions" would stop them

warspite1

Purely for the avoidance of doubt, please can you confirm that these comments about the Germans and Spain are not directed to me?

Thanks.

Not directed to you or anyone. I Just remember vaguely the spirit of that denial. About something that never happened in the first place = a what if

TulliusDetritus wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:38 pm Not directed to you or anyone. I Just remember vaguely the spirit of that denial. About something that never happened in the first place = a what if

warspite1

Okay fair enough just checking, because of course the idea that Germany wouldn’t have been able to defeat the Spanish Army was absolutely not my position in that thread.

warspite1 wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:44 pm

Curtis Lemay wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:35 pm

warspite1 wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:30 pm Land them, in the Hawaiian Islands, having sailed to the HI alone....

At night.

warspite1

It doesn't matter. The Japanese - and the second wave was proof of this (as if any was needed) can't afford to be detected. You believe the Japanese would sanction destroyers sailing up to, along, and through the Hawaiian Islands so they could park offshore and await the attack in the desperate hope they weren't detected?

All the Japanese would need just one bit of bad luck and their war against the US, the British and the Dutch has just ended in total disaster....

The 15,000 troops in Hawaii would of just pushed those naval battalions into the sea.

Curtis Lemay wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:24 pm First, this is a discussion about what they COULD have done. Whether they would do it is secondary. Regardless, base construction in wartime conditions would depend upon priorities. Why would Eniwetok be high priority once the war was under way? Adopt this plan and it has lots of priority pre-war. Throw enough resources there and it could get done.

Surely this should be a discussion on what the historical Japanese REALISTICALLY COULD have done under their historical circumstances. Unfortunately I'm not seeing much of anything that's realistic in your current plans, only what you imagine could have been achieved if every step always delivered its desired outcome, at both Hawaii and across the Pacific and on the days they needed. Its not really a plan, its a hope. At least Yamamoto's historical plan ended up finally reaching a point during the planning that the Japanese were sufficiently convinced it had an acceptable chance of inflicting heavy damage on the US at Hawaii, even if it might cost them heavily with KB. Right now though there appears little about your concept for the Japanese to reliably hang their kimonos on and certainly not enough to risk the failure of their entire war strategy along with it.

For example.....

Curtis Lemay wrote:

Buckrock wrote:And just out of curiousity, is your plan really to have troop laden DD's accompany KB all the way to the PH Raid point and then break away prior to the strike launch so as to capture 1-2 of the Hawaiian Islands in time for the landing of Bettys that also participated in the KB raid after staging from Eniwetok? Or is this all just a bit of a wind up for those who may hold a more pessimistic view of Japan's wartime options against Hawaii?

?? You've lost me. The raid included destroyers. There will just be more of them.

I know there were already destroyers escorting the historical mission. They were destroyers that had had their weights reduced in the name of fuel efficiency, including the reduction in the number of ship's boats. For the same reason, crew comforts like heating, washing, air conditioning, etc were planned to be kept at a bare minimum. Very much the opposite of the overcrowded and overweight destroyers on your mission. Given the conditions the Japanese expected to encounter in the North Pacific at that time of the year, bringing along destroyers carrying troops in the hope of an opportunity to invade and capture some (defended) Hawaiian islands would be asking a bit much even with the backing of Divine Providence.

So I still can't discount the possibility that this might all be just a bit of a wind-up.

Buckrock wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 6:35 am
I know there were already destroyers escorting the historical mission. They were destroyers that had had their weights reduced in the name of fuel efficiency, including the reduction in the number of ship's boats. For the same reason, crew comforts like heating, washing, air conditioning, etc were planned to be kept at a bare minimum. Very much the opposite of the overcrowded and overweight destroyers on your mission. Given the conditions the Japanese expected to encounter in the North Pacific at that time of the year, bringing along destroyers carrying troops in the hope of an opportunity to invade and capture some (defended) Hawaiian islands would be asking a bit much even with the backing of Divine Providence.

So I still can't discount the possibility that this might all be just a bit of a wind-up.

Maybe it is a wind-up. Destroyers really couldn't carry a great of personnel. Even the ones converted to fast transports (APDs) carried the equivalent of less than a company of infantry. They certainly couldn't haul artillery, tanks, trucks, AA emplacements, crates of spare plane parts, bulldozers, graders, tons of aviation fuel or aerial ordinance and the thousands of other items you need to keep an air flotilla flying. Japanese DDs were also not known for their great range. Japan was using the great majority of its replenishment oilers just to get the Kido Butai there and back. People seem to forget that, simply to pull off the raid, the Kido Butai had to stack fuel drums on deck including on the Akagi to allow the Striking Fleet to reach the first replenishment point. Apparently, these troop-laden destroyers are on a one-way mission.

The Japanese used destroyers at night in the Tokyo Express as an expedient to avoid air attack. The infantry carried referred to them as "rat runs". Troops got landed, but then had to wait for their heavy stuff and supplies to arrive in cargo ships. It wasn't a desired way of delivering troops to a beachhead and considering the higher fuel burn versus a troopship it wasn't very economical either.

When you add the possibilities of civilians, sentries, observers, USCG cutters, pleasure craft, fishing boats, patrol planes, and a wide range of other potential eyes noticing half the destroyer strength of the IJN steaming in Hawaiian coastal waters to hit three separate islands at once, it follows that the impending air raid will be anticipated, and the US will be alert and waiting for them. The midget submarine flotilla that the Japanese sent into Pearl harbor came perilously close to compromising the whole operation and it didn't have nearly the high profile of this "DD invasion".

While I suppose there is some miniscule chance that surprise could be achieved, it would hardly be wise on the part of the Japanese to presuppose that something so unlikely would be the basis for their planning. To make this work, you need an almost complete pattern of ineptitude and docility on the part of the Americans to give it any chance of working. And while US leadership in the weeks before Pearl Harbor left a lot to be desired, any plan or campaign that is premised on such sustained imbecility of the enemy is begging for failure. And in this case, Japan would be betting literally everything it had on the table on that wager.

And then there is the blithe assumption that operations in Java/Borneo/Sumatra will be unaffected by all this; that even if you roll all sixes in this game and can get the shipping back, that you are not giving the British, Dutch and Aussies ample time to a) do significant reinforcement on Java, and b) really do a serious job of sabotaging all the oil facilities you desperately need really pushes the whole thing beyond fantasy.

warspite1 wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:11 pm
What US troops were on Maui in December 1941?

Maui, Kauai and Hawaii were guarded by the 299th Regiment. Each island had one battalion from the regiment.

And still don't know which Bettys these are and where they were historically used in December 1941 - March 1942

I'm assuming it's the Takao Kokutai which was based in Formosa in December 1941. This was the G4M bomber group slated to hit Clark Field on Luzon, Borneo and points south.

Torplexed wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 7:42 am
....Destroyers really couldn't carry a great of personnel....

warspite1

The destroyers of Marine Gruppe 1 carried, I believe, about 200 troops each. This assumes 2,000 troops and 10 destroyers - but I am not completely certain on these numbers. The trip to Narvik took what? a couple of days. The journey was, by all accounts, absolute hell thanks to a terrible storm, and some troops were lost overboard.

This plan assumes at least four battlalions (I think two per island was mentioned). Based on the German example, that is a lot of destroyers, all crammed with soldiers, for more than two weeks...in equally, or more so, appalling conditions than those the poor Gebirgsjager found off Norway. The food has to be stored for a trip of this length, plus troops and their equipment. Oh and these Japanese have to be prepared to fight when they get to shore....

As mentioned above, these precious destroyers have to be considered by Japan to be on a one-way trip. They would have sailed from the refuelling point to the flying off point and then on to the Hawaiian Islands. I'd like to see Curtis Lemay's fuel calculations for this. Is any of this even remotely possible from a range - or indeed any - perspective.

Torplexed wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 8:04 am
Maui, Kauai and Hawaii were guarded by the 299th Regiment. Each island had one battalion from the regiment.

I'm assuming it's the Takao Kokutai which was based in Formosa in December 1941. This was the G4M bomber group slated to hit Clark Field on Luzon, Borneo and points south.

warspite1

So troops are supposedly landed on Maui before the raid (asssuming the destroyers are not sunk at any point on their way to the HI) while the surviving Bettys fly on their one way mission to Maui via Oahu (if that is even possible). Let's assume all this is possible (not convinced so far) AND it all goes unbelievably well for the Japanese.

Right. December 7th 1941.

Two battalions of Japanese troops have landed on this large island and have totally subdued the battalion of US troops. 'Some' Bettys fly on to the required airfield. Their arrival, of course, needs to coincide with Maui's airfield having been secured so they don't land straight into captivity. So the Bettys will have attacked Pearl some time after the KB and will be met with increased AA.... Meanwhile 'some' Japanese destroyers are lying low off the island because they don't have enough fuel to get back to their refuelling point...

Right. Now what?

The troops are doing? Presumably rounding up civilians, protecting the airfield, and 'requisitioning' whatever transport they can. Big island to cover for all that.....
The surviving Bettys (those that haven't been damaged) have no fuel, no bombs, no cover and are low on ammunition.
The destroyers are sitting ducks until they can get some fuel.
Troops, planes and ships have little effective AA (the destroyers will have their own while ammunition stocks last) and their is no fighter cover.

Tumbleweed enters stage left, rolls across the screen and exits stage right.....

warspite1 wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:58 am As mentioned above, these precious destroyers have to be considered by Japan to be on a one-way trip. They would have sailed from the refuelling point to the flying off point and then on to the Hawaiian Islands. I'd like to see Curtis Lemay's fuel calculations for this. Is any of this even remotely possible from a range - or indeed any - perspective.

In theory, had they done the hard part and made it all the way with KB from Japan to the final historical re-fuelling point on Dec 6th and had just completed their refueling, then yes they would have the fuel to make a 25 knot, 600nm run to their targeted Hawaiian island and then cover the same distance in retirement at the same speed once the troops are unloaded. They could probably do this and possibly still have about 30-40% fuel left at the end. I'm using 25 knots as it's probably their best sustainable "high speed" in open ocean over long distances. Fuel use may be heavy at this speed in the standard IJN fleet DD but it becomes much worse after this for every extra knot.

There are still multiple issues that come with this particular scenario (the daylight part of the run, comms between TFs, etc) but without knowing exactly what are Curtis Lemay's positions and times for his forces, there's no point trying to walk through them.

warspite1 wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 10:13 am Right. December 7th 1941.

Two battalions of Japanese troops have landed on this large island and have totally subdued the battalion of US troops. 'Some' Bettys fly on to the required airfield. Their arrival, of course, needs to coincide with Maui's airfield having been secured so they don't land straight into captivity. So the Bettys will have attacked Pearl some time after the KB and will be met with increased AA.... Meanwhile 'some' Japanese destroyers are lying low off the island because they don't have enough fuel to get back to their refuelling point...

Right. Now what?

Either they go after Pearl Harbor (the real prize) or... I don't know what they are doing.

Enter the Java invasion, an operation that existed in the real world. First they capture next door island Bali to grab an airfield and bring planes that will support the proper Java invasion.

Now where are the two or three divisions to finish the job? 7 december has crippled the big US base, they might have (wild assumption) what, 2 or 3 weeks to bring and land the main body?

Buckrock wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:07 pm

warspite1 wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:58 am As mentioned above, these precious destroyers have to be considered by Japan to be on a one-way trip. They would have sailed from the refuelling point to the flying off point and then on to the Hawaiian Islands. I'd like to see Curtis Lemay's fuel calculations for this. Is any of this even remotely possible from a range - or indeed any - perspective.

In theory, had they done the hard part and made it all the way with KB from Japan to the final historical re-fuelling point on Dec 6th and had just completed their refueling, then yes they would have the fuel to make a 25 knot, 600nm run to their targeted Hawaiian island and then cover the same distance in retirement at the same speed once the troops are unloaded. They could probably do this and possibly still have about 30-40% fuel left at the end. I'm using 25 knots as it's probably their best sustainable "high speed" in open ocean over long distances. Fuel use may be heavy at this speed in the standard IJN fleet DD but it becomes much worse after this for every extra knot.

warspite1

Yes, but remember the timetable that the KB worked to in real life, has been thrown up in the air by the need to ensure no strike without the carriers. This means more chance that the refuelling won't be delivered on time. This also doesn't allow for the more than likely possibility that at least some of the destroyers won't be fighting their way to HI, or take avoiding action etc. The chances of a clean run to HI seem extremely small to me.

As I said, without further details from Curtis Lemay there's probably no point trying to walk through all the issues relating to his destroyer landing operation. I only supplied a fuel estimate for the historical situation so as to provide a type of general baseline.

But that's just me.