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Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Allied #3. Naval Search.

Italian Coast. Round 2.
10/5/24, 8:22 AM - [ALLIED] Does Italy react their bomber?
10/5/24, 8:23 AM - [AXIS]: One moment please
10/5/24, 8:24 AM - [ALLIED]
10/5/24, 8:27 AM - [AXIS]: No thanks
10/5/24, 8:29 AM - [ALLIED] Only the search by the Allied side in Italian Coast was successful. Axis rolled 7; Allied rolled 1.
10/5/24, 8:30 AM - [ALLIED] RN & French elect to fight vs 2-box, which gives the allies 8 SPs.
10/5/24, 8:31 AM - [ALLIED] <Media omitted>
10/5/24, 8:31 AM - [ALLIED] Allies use 4 SPs to continue the surface.
10/5/24, 8:34 AM - [ALLIED] 2 SPs reduces allied risk from 2D, 1A to D, A. 2 SPs increase axis risk from X, D, 2A to X, 2D.
10/5/24, 8:35 AM - [ALLIED] <Media omitted>
10/5/24, 8:36 AM - [AXIS]: Trento x Bolzano d
10/5/24, 8:39 AM - [ALLIED] Trento sunk. Bolzano passed damage check and is aborted.
10/5/24, 8:40 AM - [AXIS]: Stay
10/5/24, 8:41 AM - [ALLIED] RN Risk (D,A) assignment. (1) D vs RN BB Warspite (6-4-3), (2) A vs (damaged) CA Effingham (2-5-8).
10/5/24, 8:44 AM - [ALLIED] Warspite damaged, (damaged) Effingham aborted.
10/5/24, 8:44 AM - [ALLIED] Allies stay.

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Allied #3. Naval Search.

Italian Coast. Round 3.
10/5/24, 8:44 AM - [ALLIED] Does Italy react bomber?
10/5/24, 8:45 AM - [AXIS]: No thanks
10/5/24, 8:45 AM - [ALLIED] Allies again commit their subs.
10/5/24, 8:47 AM - [ALLIED] Both searches in Italian Coast were successful. Axis rolled 1; Allied rolled 1.
10/5/24, 8:48 AM - [ALLIED] Allies pass on the naval air.
10/5/24, 8:48 AM - [ALLIED] Do the Italians wish to fight a naval air.
10/5/24, 8:48 AM - [ALLIED] <Media omitted>
10/5/24, 8:50 AM - [AXIS]: Yeah, why not
10/5/24, 8:50 AM - [ALLIED] Naval air it is!
10/5/24, 8:51 AM - [ALLIED] RN flies all 4 CAGs as fighters
10/5/24, 8:52 AM - [ALLIED] RN use their 2 SPs to reduce ITA air-to-air from +2 to +1. RN air-to-air is -2.
10/5/24, 8:52 AM - [AXIS]: Should be currently +2 vs -2 right?
10/5/24, 8:52 AM - [ALLIED] Originally.
10/5/24, 8:52 AM - [ALLIED] After SPs +1 vs -2.
10/5/24, 8:53 AM - [ALLIED] <Media omitted>
10/5/24, 8:53 AM - [AXIS]: Actually, I thought Axis would get the point's
10/5/24, 8:53 AM - [AXIS]: Ok. Run with that
10/5/24, 8:53 AM - [ALLIED] Allies 4-box and axis 2-box. Both rolled a 1.
10/5/24, 8:54 AM - [ALLIED] No NAV or long range CVP for either side.
10/5/24, 8:54 AM - [ALLIED] Copy.
10/5/24, 8:56 AM - [ALLIED] Air-to-air combat round 1.
Axis units fire on Allied units.
Die roll was 3. AX was the result.
Italy decides whether to destroy the Allied front fighter or bomber (the pilot survived unless shot down in an unfriendly sea area).
Only one unit to choose: Nimrod.
10/5/24, 8:56 AM - [ALLIED] Nimrod was destroyed. Nimrod, belonging to Commonwealth, was destroyed in air-to-air combat.
10/5/24, 8:57 AM - [ALLIED] Air-to-air combat round 1.
Allied units fire on Axis units.
Die roll was 12. AC was the result.
Commonwealth decides which Axis bomber to clear through.
No Axis bomber present to clear through.
10/5/24, 8:58 AM - [ALLIED] <Media omitted>
10/5/24, 8:58 AM - [ALLIED] RN aborts the air-to-air.
10/5/24, 8:58 AM - [ALLIED] RN stays.
10/5/24, 8:59 AM - [AXIS]: Axis Stays
10/5/24, 8:59 AM - [ALLIED] Off to round 4.

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Allied #3. Naval Search.

Italian Coast. Round 4.
10/5/24, 9:01 AM - [ALLIED] The searches in Italian Coast were unsuccessful. No naval combat occurs. Axis roll was 6. Allied roll was 8.
10/5/24, 9:01 AM - [ALLIED] Early war naval battle ends after 4 rounds.
10/5/24, 9:02 AM - [ALLIED] Undamaged RM CA abort to where?
10/5/24, 9:02 AM - [AXIS]: La Spezia please
10/5/24, 9:02 AM - [ALLIED] Copy.
10/5/24, 9:04 AM - [ALLIED] Warspite will be unhappy with me getting his namesake warship damaged. However; that's the risk when you have the best defense. That is, leading the way.
10/5/24, 9:05 AM - [AXIS]: Renown is earned by fighting bravely

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Allied #3. Naval Search.

North Sea.
10/5/24, 9:05 AM - [ALLIED] Allies choose not search in the North Sea.
10/5/24, 9:06 AM - [AXIS]: Axis will search, FTR3 already flipped
10/5/24, 9:06 AM - [ALLIED] Thought so. Your successful intercept of the Queens in the North Sea forced me to plan B for the North Sea.
[Plan A was to have the Queens w/7-3 WP UK inf corps dash directly to Rotterdam. No other naval movement in the North Sea would have prevented naval search. Then reorg Queens with UK TRS Gp in 2-box to save the Royal Ladies in case that the reinforced Rotterdam is lost and the Queens overran. However; the successful intercept (20% chance) forced the Queens to stop in the North Sea, allowing German to search (non-phasing) and therefore forced the RN to Plan B. I've found out that hard way in the past that one needs a Plan B (if possible) especially if the odds of a plan A are less than near certain (i.e., <99%). And even then, if not certain (e.g., 99%) and catastrophic, a plan B is necessary to mitigate the possible catastrophic.]
10/5/24, 9:07 AM - [ALLIED] I think you astutely figured out that the Queens with UK II inf was headed directly to Rotterdam if the intercept failed (80% chance).
10/5/24, 9:07 AM - [ALLIED] So Plan A would have prevented an axis search.
10/5/24, 9:08 AM - [ALLIED] But that didn't happen, which force me into a plan B which was a heavy naval commitment to the North Sea.
10/5/24, 9:09 AM - [ALLIED] Need to get my second cup of coffee before proceeding.
10/5/24, 9:11 AM - [ALLIED] CW reacts Spitfire I F2 to 1-box.
10/5/24, 9:12 AM - [ALLIED] <Media omitted>
10/5/24, 9:12 AM - [AXIS]: No additional AC
10/5/24, 9:13 AM - [ALLIED] Copy.
10/5/24, 9:14 AM - [ALLIED] The searches in North Sea were unsuccessful. No naval combat occurs. Axis roll was 3. Allied roll was 4.
10/5/24, 9:14 AM - [ALLIED] Both sides missed finding by 1.

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Allied #3.

Strategic Bombing.
10/6/24, 1:09 PM - [ALLIED] (1) [snow] RAF Wellesley vs Hamburg (2 fac). No axis fighters in range to react.
10/6/24, 1:10 PM - [ALLIED] (2) [snow, XR] French LeO 451(4/4=1) vs Berlin (3 fac, 2 oil). no axis fighters or AA in range to intercept.
10/6/24, 1:13 PM - [ALLIED] (1) 1 PP lost Hamburg, (2) 1 PP lost Berlin. Ground strikes - none.

Rail.
10/6/24, 1:17 PM - [ALLIED] Rail - USSR 1/1. 3rd Sib. Krasnoyarsk -> Kazan, USSR.

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Allied #3.

Land Moves (USSR/CCP, China).
Soviet Asia. (1) MGL Cav -> Ulan-Ude.
(2) 1st Soviet Cav -> adjacent to Chita.

Northern China.
(3) CCP & Nationalist move forward and dig in against IJA lines. Southern China.
(4) Nationalist armies reposition into better defensive (e.g., Mtn) terrain.

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Allied #3.

10/6/24, 1:32 PM - [ALLIED] Land Combat - none.

10/6/24, 1:33 PM - [ALLIED] Air Rebase. USSR. I-15bis Lvov -> Vilna, Poland.
10/6/24, 1:35 PM - [ALLIED] CW. (1/2) Hampden L3. Dover -> Harwick, UK. (2/2) Hurricane I F2. UK 48,27 -> 49,29 (Coast, North Sea).
10/6/24, 1:37 PM - [ALLIED] Exhausts CW air moves (3 for naval).
10/6/24, 1:40 PM - [ALLIED] French. MS 406 F2. Reims -> Le Havre, France. Exhausts French air moves (2 for naval).

10/6/24, 1:40 PM - [ALLIED] HQ Reorg. None.

Europe (End of Impulse).

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Axis #5.

10/6/24, 1:42 PM - [ALLIED] Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Axis #5. Weather. DRM =+1.

AXIS ACTIONS
GER Land
IT & JP Combined

No Port Attacks
No Naval Airs

NAVAL MOVES
JP
CA from Fukuoka to 4 Box Japanese Coast
TRS & Amp to 0 Box China Sea - Load MIL & HQ

IT
CA San Giorgio from Cagliari moves into IT Coast

Allies can intercept, will they?

Allies decline

CA moves directly into Port in Olbia

No Naval Combats

Allies have no opportunity to intitiate

No Strategic Bombing

No JP Ground Strikes

GER send 1 LND3 & 1 LND2, IT sends 1 LND3 to Ground Strike Rotterdam

CW CVP can intercept, GER has counters

No intercept

Goring is livid, shown up by the Italians!!!

RAIL MOVES
JP None
IT INF Milan to Trieste
GER MIL Kiel to Karlsruhe

LAND MOVES
JP
plugs 2 holes in it's defensive line
IT
moves HQ-A & MECH out of La Spezia
GER
In the East, concentrates on Warsaw
In the West, concentrates on Rotterdam

DEBARKS
Yamamoto steps to Shanghai

Only 1 Land Attack

Rotterdam, Rundstedt will provide HQ Support
Current odds 6.286

GER will fly 1 LND3 with FTR2 Escort, has 2 more FTR2 within counter Range

What will CW do?

Both sides go All in on the Ground Support & Counters in Rotterdam

Axis with 3 FRT2 have the current advantage at +3 to -3

Chosen Order of Battle follows

2 Rounds sees Goring save a little face with the Luftwaffe maintaining the advantage

1 GER FTR2 Aborted
1 CW FTR2 & LND3 destroyed, Pilots survived over friendly territory

After the 2nd Round Allies chose to abort

2 Extra points added to the land attack by the now unopposed Axis Bomber

GER chose the Winterized MTN to lead the Attack into Rotterdam, utilizing the ENG for full benefit

Final odds before factional

Fractional Roll was Good

Attack roll 11, takes the city, BUT very expensive, for both sides really in the end

ENG & MTN both lost and will be missed over the next couple of turns

Was it worth it?
Time will tell, but I think Yes!