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For a lot of reasons I am not following mc3744's night bombing strategy.

Some of them are obvious, i have air superiority in Burma and over 150 single engine planes based close to the Japanese lines that are attacking every day weather permitting.

Others are more strategic, I like to put pressure on the Japanese at many points. If all my 4 engine bombers are in one place then I can't do that. The flip side is that I can't use 4 engine bombers to win an air campaign the way mc3744 has in Burma. As with any strategy there are plusses and minuses, though this AAR seems to be full of plusses for the Allies. I am not sure if I learned a lot from the last game or Blackwatch forgot something.

Since April the increases are as follows:

Aircraft destroyed
Allied +539
Japanese + 667
slowly closing the gap

Army
106 Allied
225 Japanese
I am not sure if its China doing this, or the combined total of China, Luzon, Soerbaja and the campaign in Burma. Anyway its really gratifying. If the Japanese can take out the Phillipines and Java this will go Japans way, but as time the chance that one or both of these places will survive is increasing.

Ships
28 Allied
24 Japan
He is still sinking more ships than I am, though its getting close.





The only bad thing is the PP balance, things must be going badly in Europe, Winston keeps demanding BBs and DDs which I cannot afford to send. So I let the PP count go negative, and in May he wants another 1100 points worth of shipping, so its going to stay negative for a while. The reason for this will become clearer as the month goes by, the RN is starting a series of operations that will run from May until late June or July.

Phillipines May 7th

The Allies brought down two armored battalions to Naga and deliberate attacked May 1. The assualt went in at 0 to 1 odds but the casualties went for the Allies, 100 of them to 600 Japanese. Based on this I think its possible to smash the Japanese garrison there and the two best RCTs at Clark are coming South along with an arty regiment. This will double the size of the attacking force. I am also trying to get air power involved by I have had a lot of trouble getting the planes to fly.

At the same time a supply convoy is unloading at Legaspi which will soon have over 24,000 supply, more is on the way.

At Clark the regular bombardment attack was halted when supply dropped down to 14,900. The next turn a combination of air supply from Davao and local production brought supply in the area back up over 16,000.

All this means that the Phillipines are not going to fall in May unless the Japanese strategy changes a lot. If the Naga attack succeeds then the balance of power will shift very much in the Allies favor.

Blackwatch has until July or August to secure the islands, after that the operations that I am planning near Timor will start to re-open the route to the Islands. I am not confident that I can pull it off, but I can see the chance for the Allies to never lose the Phillipines and for them to be a major staging base starting in early 1943.

3000 planes lost[X(][X(] and the allies have solid strongholds in all the major theatres....well, I think your opponent is doomed! But I'll keep on reading this AAR as holding the PI is a very intesting challenge![:)]
Obviously, your opponent last chance to stay in the game is to gather all what he can to take Java and Timor. If he concentrates on PI first it may be too late in the DEI while the PI can be neutralized and by passed for some time.That gives you some more time and he will have to forget taking PM or any other offensive.
As I said in a previous post, the more I look at your game the more I think the "Guadalcanal campaign" is just about to start...in DEI[;)].You have no naval power to oppose to him but your air power might be enough to start the attrition of his naval forces (it looks like it' already done for airpower) must .It depends on your available supplies there.

Nemrod,

Supplies are the key and I am straining there. Supply for Java comes from India which is also supporting the Phillipines and has a smaller merchant fleet than the one supporting the US forces coming into the Solomons.

Lately I have been flying B17s out of Soerbaja and over 120 twin engine bombers out of Soerbaja and Malang to hit Kragan, Djokarta and other nearby bases. Its starting to burn a lot of supply fast.

The upshot is that Malang can't unload enough to support the air offensive so I am sending a convoy round Java to Soerbaja with 21,000 supply. Also I have diverted supply that was bound for Timor and even the Phillipines to Java. Timor has about 160,000 supply in the 3 bases so that can go for a bit but I am planning to turn the heat up there as well which will also burn supplies.

India is loading everything that floats with supply and has been for a least a week so I don't think I will have to slow operations but the whole effort is definitely causing strain.

I have been thinking about this game some, frankly I don't like doing this well this early but I am so away we go. It's an interesting problem, I have control of the initiative and its only May but I could lose that control. How does one counter attack with the limited resources available?

That is one of the reasons I want to get into the Solomons, the Americans are only in the war with about 40% of their on map strength, 25% is at Pearl and the remaining 35% is in Luganville-Noumea. If I can get those guys into action I have an offensive with a short supply line and rapid access to the new units coming into the West Coast.

Here is a map of Java showing the airgroups on the Allied side and the damage to Kragen which has been a favorite target of mine. May 8th the Allies are switching to Madoien since there seem to be more Japanese planes based there.

In addition to the planes shown here there are B17s in Darwin hitting Kendari and B26s in Lautem that occasionally also hit Kendari. Kendari has Zeros flying CAP so the place is not bieng hurt much yet. I am trying to train up some Deamons and Brewsters to provide a decent escort but they may never be ready.

Here is the air offensive:





The long lines are B17 raids. I don't raid the same place more than a few days in a row because I want to keep the planes in the air. Soerbaja is still a level 4 airfield though it will soon be 5 and B17s do not repair very quickly there. Still they are getting better, causing damage to Japan and things will only get worse for the Japanese as time goes by.

On the ground a number of the Dutch units are well above 100% strength and seem to be growing 105mm howitzers in thier vegitable patches because these guns are now showing up in the units.

Far away at Trimcomalee a convoy has just set sail with the Madras engineers and construction unit, they will end up at Maumere between Timor and Java along with some Dutch bases forces and turn it into an offensive airfield starting some time in early July. If that operation is successful Amboina is only 4 hexes away and the Japanese will be in real trouble.

The British continue to launch aggressive air attacks on the Japanese bases in Burma. The problem is that the British fighters have no range, but fortunatley Akyab and Myitikyina are both in range of Japanese bases. The air campaign is a combination of training program for the RAF, USAAF and RAAF forces involved and also an effort to grind down the Japanese garrisons.

Here are some results:

Day Air attack on Lashio , at 35,30

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 3

Allied aircraft
Lysander I x 12
Hurricane II x 14
Vildebeest IV x 12

No Japanese losses

No Allied losses

Airbase hits 2
Runway hits 3

Day Air attack on 1st Tank Regiment, at 35,30

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 3

Allied aircraft
Lysander I x 14
Wirraway x 7
Mohawk IV x 14
Buffalo I x 13
Hurricane II x 16

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Lysander I: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
9 casualties reported
Vehicles lost 1

Both of these are pretty typical, sometimes an Oscar or two gets shot down, less often a British plane is taken down. Ranges are short and operational losses are low.

The effort is paying off in terms of pilot quality. There are now between 4 and 6 British fighter squadrons in the 70s and there are nolonger any in the 50s. Its not possible to attack Mandalay or Rangoon with fighter cover because only the AVG and Mowhawks can reach those bases. The AVG is being held back to help build up the P40B pool and the single Mowhawk group available just reach 61 xp. Another Mowhawk group will arrive in India in a few days and start training as well, once both groups are in the high 60s or 70s the Brits will add Mandalay to the target list.

On land preparation is being made for an offensive after the Chindits arrive. The plan is to sieze an airfield and then bring in base forces and fighters. That way the British can push into Burma in the latter part of 1942 with fighter cover. Its a long slow process but it will pay off in a really big way come fall of 1942.

At sea the RN owns the Bay of Bengal. When the Japanese attempted to transport the 5th division out of Burma the convoy was intercepted, a number of ships were sunk and the rest were dropped ashore at Moulmein. Lately there have been some offensive cruiser against Sabang. On May 4th the Japanese spotted some BBs and went after them, CAP from the nearby carriers intercepted and the result was disaster for Japan:

Day Air attack on TF at 16,39

Japanese aircraft
D3A Val x 5
B5N Kate x 28

Allied aircraft
Fulmar x 46

Japanese aircraft losses
D3A Val: 3 destroyed
B5N Kate: 25 destroyed


Allied Ships
BB Warspite
BB Royal Sovereign
BB Resolution

On May 7th the BBs hit Sabang:

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 6 destroyed
H8K Emily: 1 destroyed
B5N Kate: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
CL Newcastle
CL Glasgow
CA Exeter
CA Cornwall
CA Devonshire
CA Dorsetshire
BB Resolution
BB Royal Sovereign
BB Warspite

Japanese ground losses:
588 casualties reported
Guns lost 7

Airbase hits 13
Airbase supply hits 9
Runway hits 60

and again on the 8th:

Japanese aircraft losses
D3A Val: 1 destroyed
A6M2 Zero: 3 destroyed

Allied Ships
CL Newcastle
CL Glasgow
CA Exeter
CA Cornwall
CA Devonshire
CA Dorsetshire
BB Resolution
BB Royal Sovereign
BB Warspite

Japanese ground losses:
142 casualties reported
Guns lost 2

Airbase hits 3
Airbase supply hits 3
Runway hits 49
Port hits 1
Port supply hits 3

Pretty good results, over 30 aircraft destroyed during the raid in exchange for no casualties at all on the RN side. Also the ships involved had thier night combat rating go up between 1-3%. That was one of my major reasons for the raid, to improve the fighting quality of the fleet.

The over all goal is keep the pressure on the Japanese now, and increase it when the combination of additional forces and training make the British powerful enough to advance on the ground. These operations are being prepared to coincide with the push into the Solomons and the push against Japanese forces in the Amboina-Macassar-Kendari area. More on this in the next post.

Here is the plan for the 1942 offensive. This could change a lot if the Japanese can get thier act together and win the in the Phillipines, but if they don't the clock is ticking. The offensives are numberd, details are below the map:





#1 is the big British push. This will not be possible until the 2 Chindit brigades arrive and the second one comes in August. However the air plan is already underway as discussed in the previous post. In addition to the Chindit landing at Lashio or Tarun Gyi there will be a push by infantry divisions and armor from Akyab and by August there should be 5 SE Asia Chinese division at or near full strength coming down from Myitikiyna along with more armor, artillery and some infantry brigades.

#2 NEI: Currently there is a growing air offensive based out of Soerbaja. Its sucking up supplies and the Allies are pushing more and more convoys to the city. The airfield just reached size 5 and will continue to expand, Malang is expanding its port to help take in supplies as well. In June the Allies are going to drop forces into Maumere and build it up,, this will put them in 4 hexes range of Amboina. By July Aru Island will have a functioning fighter base and the forces there will stage forward to Bulla, putting air pressure on from the other direction. In August forces of the Royal Navy with support from US Navy and Australian ships will push past Amboina with a big convoy bound for the base at Makale as a diversion. The main push will be North from the Bulla area with a goal of re-opening the convoy route to the Phillipines. My thinking is that the Japanese will put a lot of effort into defending the oil in Sumatra and Borneo which will leave them without enough force to stop the Eastern operation. Once a route to the Phillipines is open Clark and Manila can base aircraft that will stop the oil flowing anyway.

#3 The move North in the Solomons.
It will be interesting to see if the Japanese attempt to counter attack this move at all, since it has the limited goal of building a base 4 hexes North of Luganville and then stageing forward from there. By July there will be 3 more Seabees in the area and the LBA fighter cover will be over 200 fighters. This operation will have the US CVs in reserve, if KB decides to tangle with the LBA and loses then the 3 CVs will pursue. If I can start an attrition battle in the Solomons in July then the more important offensives are almost certain to succeed.

#4 A continueation of the move North. If the early operations go well then the next stop is Guadalcanal and points North. By August I HAVE to be in a battle in the Solomons, the Americans must pin Japanese forces there so that they cannot be moved to more critical thearters of operation.

The strategy is to create crisis after crisis for Japan, cause him to distribute his forces instead of concentrating them, open the road to the Phillipines and then win the war by cutting Japan off from the oil in the NEI.

If Japan does figure out how to win in the Phillipines then the strategy will change, the NEI will go defensive but the campaigns in the Solomons and Burma will continue.

So what do you think, is Japan doomed or does Blackwatch have enough time to turn things around and make the game last past 1943?

The Japanese position is not completely lost. There is still heaps of time between now and your Aug timetable. He just has two half apples in each hand, Luzon and Java. Obviously I don't know the finer points of where his forces are but he must reorganise for a fatal blow at either one, depending on where most of his forces are. Luzon would be nice to finish off first and crush the rest of the Philippines. The allied supply position should be weakest here. And the Japs have several a/f close to the action. The Japanese must have some fresh troops??? Even if they buy a HI division, that would provide some firepower if his other divisions have taken too many losses. Also his ships could do some bombardments to help he land forces. Have all the troops that captured Singapore been deployed or are some still resting? Unfortuneately for the Japs he is going to have to push push push his divisions even if they have many disablements. The Jap supply is probably low too, but he might have to take some form Japan to get his troops moving. No point in having all his converted industry repaired if he can't capture the SRA.

Java will be a bit harder because of your many planes. And I think Soerbaja has >1000AP. But the Japs have most of JAva. He will have to use those bases and Borneo to soften you up. I probably wouldn't send the KB through here though as a couple of torps are bound to hit a CV or two. But he could use the KB Zeroes from land bases to help gain air control. This will weaken the CV before your stroke at Guadalcanal but he might have to take the chance to get the concentration of forces. Also the JAAF might have to mortgage its future too by throwing in the Oscar Is three months before the new model planes arrive. But he does need to throw you out now. I don't think he will capture Timor. But they will depend on many results of the other battles. All his reserves should have been thrown in.

With Guadalcanal the Japs can't afford to lose it this early. Does it have many defences? It is malaria so by the time your are ready to attack in late july he might be changing the guard for fresher troops. He might have something in Truk or Saipan that will swap with the malaria troops on Lunga. I guess the number of planes here is dependant on the number of Jap planes in Philippines and Java. He should have some forces either here or at Rabaul. The worst thing here for the Japs is his unattentiveness. He has left heaps of bases in SI and north NG coast uncaptured. The Jap player might find some painful surprises for his poor housekeeping. And once a small base in built up here with simultaneous attacks on Lunga it will be messy for the Japs if he is unprepared. but once Lunga is re-taken, it is fairly easy for the Allies to wriggle up the island chain. but if the JP can close off PI and Java before the end of July he might be able to parry your blow in the SI.

Then the JP can rest his troops and retrain his reduced A/F. And see what opportunities or crisis now face him.

A big problem for the JP will be how much to spend on repairing the SRA. He is going to have major supply problems for a long time and his divisions will be badly weakened. And with Timor in Allied hands many oil sites in SRA might not be worth repairing. The JP only has a couple of oil sites to go anyways- so he will know what is mostly needed. But if the journey home is tooo perilous for the ships the oil could be be stranded.

So a tricky situation for the JP but I don't think hopeless. He just needs to consolidate his forces and add water to his half apples.

Doomed!
Look at his air losses:3000 planes[X(]!
Pilot exp must be pitiful by now and to cover plane losses he must expand factories,eating a lot of supplies.He is, more than Jap players generally are, in a desperate need for oil and ressources to keep on fighting by fall 42.
Now, look at the map....speaks for itself!
He has a lot of work ahead to secure the DEI oil fields.He needs months to move forces,take Java then Luzon even with his powerfull naval support...and his remaining air forces if he can afford more losses.He can't put pressure elsewhere.This will allow you to keep many places from where to launch offensives in late 42 against a very, very weakened opposition: Timor, NG, wake, Burma...
You can try to grab some ground in Burma or in the Salomons but you don't really need it so don't take risks there, you just need to create more and more threats all over the map.

Major victory in the Phillipines, Naga fell to a mixture of Marines, Army Phillipine army and tanks. 18,000 supply immediately moved out of Legaspi and into Naga. There is now just over 15,000 at Clark, 18,000 at Naga and just under 2,000 at Legaspi.

Japanese bombers hit transports unloading at Legaspi but failed to sink any and they took some losses from a group of F4Fs based there.

There are still Japanese in the Naga hex, the big question is will any of the 18,000 supply move North from Naga to Clark. If it does then the Phillipines have a good chance of holding well past June, which will give me time to permanently reopen the shipping route to the islands.

IN Java Soerbaja is up to 25,000 supply as the Allies start to reopen the port for merchant shipping. Kragen has been bombed flat and Allied strikes on Madeoin have cleared the CAP from the area and just destroyed 10 planes, mostly Zeros, on the ground.

His situation must be even worse than I thought. The only good thing for him is his surface fleet.But you are ruling the sky, the only sensible thing he can do with his planes is withdrawing most of them for training on easy targets a couple of months.
The land situation is more complex, all depends on what he has on hands to finish his Java campaign. He must come with at least 6 strong divisions, probably 8 to defeat what you put in Soerabaja.And with good planning, not peace meal attacks, so he needs a lot of time.
Can he borrow that from other fronts anyway?Can you estimate his forces in Burma? PI? NG?
What is he losing at Naga? A division? A brigade?
Upon that Manila is urban terrain with a x4 bonus on defense, add level 9 forts (x3 bonus), experienced units (thanks to your previous combats), good support and supplies and it can hold a very, very long time. I know that from my current game as Japs[:@].
If he takes Java by mid june (just dreaming...), rest, moves, retakes Luzon by mid July and starts besieging Manila he can't retake it before september at best. With most of his troops stuck there and some other keeping Java and the Celebes, were you 'll be pushing, I doubt he can hold Burma and NG .
The other solution is to isolate and neutralise PI and concentrate on holding the front line.
Very difficult choice[&:].
My guess is that you'll hold manila all the game[;)]

Can he borrow that from other fronts anyway?
He tried to pull the 5th division out of Burma by sea and the convoy was hit by the Royal Navy, 5th division was transported from Rangoon to Moulmein with some losses at sea. [:D] That was a while ago, by now it may have moved to a port in Thailand. I am not sure what is in Burma now, he might have stripped it, I should probabley push up the date for my offensive just in case he is weak.

Can you estimate his forces in Burma? PI? NG?

Burma was over 100,000 men but could be much lower now. PI is about 140,000 of which 20k at at Naga being bombarded in the jungle. Its two regiments, an arty unit and an engineer unit. They have a lot of fight left in them it will be weeks before they are gone.

I don't know what is in New Guinea, recon says 12,000 men at Lunga the Allies have no other information.


Upon that Manila is urban terrain with a x4 bonus on defense, add level 9 forts (x3 bonus), experienced units (thanks to your previous combats), good support and supplies and it can hold a very, very long time. I know that from my current game as Japs .

I chose Clark as my main defense, it has a level 9 fort now and the troop quality is high all round. I am going to use Naga as a training area and rotate the whole army through.

In the next two weeks a pair of US infantry division are going to arrive at Noumea and there are 2 SW PAC Australian divisions at Sydney now too. I am thinking about how to use all these forces, I may send two divisions into Java, or I may use them in the advance. To some extent I have to play it by ear but the pressure is definitly going to go up.

Also I have left Port Moresby and Thursday Island undefended and the Japanese have been sending large unescorted bomber raids to hit both bases for months. In a week a Marine Wildcat group is going to fly off the Long Island and into one of those bases, which will end the milk run.

120 000 men in Luzon it's not enough to take it...and too much to take Java! He can't be in strength in both places with several divisions in Burma. This gives you even more time to prepare the defense of Java with serious hopes of holding, not just delaying.

Manila is a much tougher nut to crack, in my game after conquering the whole island I couldn't take it with 6 divisions and tons of engineers. I had to let only 3 div to besiege the city as I needed the 3 others to attack Borneo and Java in march.It's now April, Timor and PM are in my hands, the allied airpower is completely removed from the DEI and of course from the PI. I'm invading Java and I expect it will be mine in May...but then...then Manila will be still there in my back[:@][:@][:@]! With three of my div stuck on it! I'll have to bring much more and forget attacking elsewhere or let my three div there waiting exhaustion of supply and play the game without them.
When I planned my invasions before starting my game, I completely overlooked the bonus effect of fighting in a big city: x4!! It's more than the effect of a level 9 fort!

Clark is down to 13,000 supply, so I have started to fly in more from Davao. The supply at Naga will not move North pas the Japanese troops there, but an additional regiment of Phillipines scouts is on the way, so maybe the Allies will be able to clear the area and resupply Clark. Its pretty dramatic, and its too bad that Blackwatvch does not have time to keep up his AAR.

Late breaking news my combat replay is running now and the Huyga just sailed into Legaspi harbor and sunk the 2 AKs unloading.

I do understand that Manila is a great place to defend, but I am able to hold Clark, and the airfield there has been of considerable value to the Allies. If the Japanese at Naga are wiped out then Clark will be worth even more, since it is an ideal location to base the aircraft that will close the sea lanes from the NEI to Japan.

It is definitely a race, but the race is between the Japanese army at Clark and the Allied army trying to destroy the Japanese troops at Naga. If the 17,000 supplies at Naga get to Clark then it can hold until July, and that will doom Japan.

Here is the first detailed plan for the Summer operations. Right now very little of the stuff that is going to do this is in place, I am still moving base forces to Akyab, the 18th division is on its way to Myititikyina but has not even reached Ledo, and the Chindits are not even in the game yet.


But it will all be in place by August.







The only thing that is launched now is the air campaign. I am hitting all the targets near the main British bases in Akayb and Myititikyna. The Mowhawks are flying over Mandaly now, until a few days ago it was a safe base for Japan but now I hit it every day with Mowhawks and even Buffalos escorting the bombers.

This first view is the map:





Which proves that no matter what you do in China nothing ever changes. I should not say this, because if you do nothing in China the Japanese will crush you and come close to winning or win, the game.

The latest Chinese triumph is throwing the Japanese out of Kwielin, except that they were not thrown out, a single Japanese unit got within one hex and they retreated out, which is exactley what Blackwatch planned.

I am hoping that he did not plan on the arge army moving South out of Wuchow that has cut off his retreating division. I cut the division off from supply on April 5th 1942 so it has had nothing come in in over a month and it was still inflicting casualties like this when I deliberate attacked, with full supply and 3 times the numbers:

A deliberate attack, May 12th 1942:

Ground combat at Kweilin

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 63273 troops, 447 guns, 0 vehicles

Defending force 21555 troops, 82 guns, 5 vehicles

Allied assault odds: 33 to 1


Japanese ground losses:
424 casualties reported
Guns lost 3
Vehicles lost 2

Allied ground losses:
1289 casualties reported
Guns lost 56

The Allied Shock attack that drove the Japanese out:

Attacking force 60278 troops, 338 guns, 0 vehicles

Defending force 20361 troops, 57 guns, 0 vehicles

Allied assault odds: 127 to 1


Japanese ground losses:
260 casualties reported
Guns lost 5

Allied ground losses:
625 casualties reported
Guns lost 44


Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

As I said the only reason the Japanese retreated was that Blackwatch opened up a route out. The Japanese lost another 2000-4000 men in the retreat, and may be at 0 supply now, so I am hoping to combine the two armies in the area and finally beat them to death. But boy it takes a long time. Even if I do the Japanese will have lost all of one division and an engineer. More proof that China is a swamp at best, and its impossible to achieve decisive results without sending lots of additional stuff from somewhere else.

The second view is the supply situation in selected Chinese cities.

I started tracking this because I was unable to get the Kweilin army into supply, it languished at 200-300 supply per unit while other armies fought well and inflicted heavy causualites. So I stopped all the other bombardment attacks to see what would happen.

The first day in May 9th, the last day is May 18th, the Kwielin armies went to full supply about May 14th so it took a while. I also watched the replacements and though China seems to have a lot of supply and is pulling a fair number of replacements the 600 a month looks kind of meaningless. I doubt there are many other players with better supply situations in May 1942 and I still can't use up replacements fast enough to keep the pool from growing. Though maybe if I can boot the Japs out of Changsha I will have enough. I should point out that there are two Chinese divisions sitting in Calcutta and 3 more on the way so there are lots of Chinese units that have more supply than they need to pull re-inforcements and grow.

Strategically I am going to continue to leave off attacking except for the Wuchow area. Once that battle ends then I am going to launch the Homan army toward Chengting, throw the Japanese out of the City and attempt to liberate Peking. That will also occur in the July-August time frame, giving the Japanese a total of 4 offensives to fight against. That ought to stress the system a little, eh?

Black is type that would be white in game, all other colors are a copy of what the city screen shows:

What're the experience levels of your Chinese looking like? You seem to have had them in constant combat since 12/41...

Chinese unit experince and size varies widely right now. Some units are still in the mid 40s, the majority are in the 50s and 60s with a few in the 70s and one or two up to 80.

Unit strength is also pretty variable. A few units have seen long combats for example the Ichang forces are in the 100-200 range. Stuff in the well supplied areas such as Changsha and Homan is in the 200-300 range and here and there are 300+ corps that I have built up for offensive work.

I think he is in trouble in China, but its not trouble that he can't handle. But if he does not pay attention I could get the jump on him and take some cities in the North some time in the late Summer or Fall.