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Turn 23. Allied #1. Naval Moves.

The way that I’ve come to look at playing through an entire Global War Scenario, which I’m on track to take 18-month or even longer to do so, is a series of connected “mini-games”. Or in the parlance of my counterfactual narrative a series of connected “mini-campaigns”. This seems especially true with the naval aspect of the game and the western allies. Theres the Atlantic, the Med and the Pacific each with different naval mission requirements and objectives and each vying for more ships, highest priority and focus. At this stage of the game, it takes me at least a good 2 or 3 days for full naval moves. Then there’s the search and combat which in itself may take a day or two more if sides find. Naval engagements in a given sea area lasting multiple rounds is like a mini-game in itself. What I like is that when this mini-game is over, the results are lasting. So I should, and hopefully I do, approach each of these mini-games with the mindset that if I get too reckless or careless then it could, in some critical cases, ruin the entire game in which I’ve already invested over a year and countless hours. No pressure then.

(1) Trade and Production Convoy Routes
• Ensure trade and production convoy routes are set to my satisfaction.
• Sent out and reflagged US to USSR CPs from Rabul, Truk and San Diego (x2) to, respectively, Sea of Japan, Okhotsk Sea, Bering Sea & Gulf of Alaska.
• Verified the extra US BP in lend lease (5 total) is being shipped to the USSR.
• Verified CW, USA & Free French production.

Turn 23. May/June 1943. Allied #1.

PTO Carrier & Sub Raiding Task Forces.
• Next, I moved to the Pacific, formed up and moved out my Carrier and Sub raiding task forces.
• Specifically, after looking at the situation I decided to go after IJN oil, CPs and possibly Sea Lift in the South China Sea and Singapore.
• The US used 2 of their 3 air mission during naval air, saving one for the PBY in the Philippines to strat bomb the Tarkan NEI Oil, which is barley in range.
• Japan has no fighter units in range, even if they flew CAP, to cover, which means the US has a 40% chance of knocking out 1 of 4 precious Japanese Oil points.
• The USN assembles and sends an impressive 11 ships (6 CVs, 2 BBs, 3 CAs) carrier attack force in the China Sea 4-box.
• 3 of the 7 CAGs have a (one) strat factor meaning if the USN remains, these CAGs are flipped or lost then the US can launch follow up strategic raids also against NEI oil.
• Also, the USN hopes to a chance again the 2 IJN 2 TRS Gps in Singapore, either via intercept or port strike.
• I also send in a NEI (CW controlled) and Free Free Sub Gp to 3 & 4-box, respectively.
• They didn’t have the range to reach the China Sea and will be useful in following impulses to allow the US to a land and still attempt naval combat using one of these sub Gps (CW or FF) to search.
• They will NOT be included in this impulse naval search or combat in the South China Sea.
• Even if the USN doesn’t find the threat of a port strike will most likely require the IJN to take a combine; taking some pressure off of China at least for the next impulse.
• In addition to NEI oil the 2 unescorted IJN CPs are prime targets for the USN.
• USN & CW Sub Gps are sent to raid both the China Sea & Sea of Japan with the objective of sinking/aborting as many IJN CPs as possible.
• The best, most optimistic outlook which is possible but probably below average is knocking out all IJN CPs in these three sea areas and breaking their supply to China and everywhere else outside of Japan.
• I’d like to point out that as I write this, as opposed to previous turns where I did an entire turn dump at once, I have not resolved naval combat. I write this at the completion of the allied naval moves and before such combat.
• The IJN has 2 carrier groups (3 CVs, 1 CVL), BBs (including Yamamoto & Mushai) and several CAs in Fukuoka that represent a significant firepower and threat to the USN in the Bismarck Sea if ignored.
• It’s imperative for the USN to maintain control and supply through, so the USN formed and sent out to the 4-box a 2 Carrier, 3 BB, 2 TRS Gp task force. In the 3-box they sent out battleships, TRS task force which had to go without fighter cover due to wanting to save 1 air mission for a strat of the Japanese controlled NEI oil at Tarkan.
• That’s a risk the US considers acceptable and in fact the USN wouldn’t mind an IJN sorite and a attritional engagement between their Bismarck Sea task forces and the IJN warships in port (reserve).
• The risk is an unfavorable search split and loss of sea lift with troops aboard.
• A risk that’s acceptable the US Pacific Commands and Commanders; but not necessarily to the seamen, marines and soldiers at sea in the Bismarck Sea.

Turn 23. May/June 1943. Allied #1.

PTO ASW Escorts & Patrols.

• Raiding and defensive task forces in the South China Sea, China Sea, Japanese Coast & Bismarck Sea had to be balanced against the need for ASW escorts and patrols vs the 3 IJN Sub squadrons in Singapore.
• The USN & RN Pacific fleet even borrowed from their brethren Mediterranean and Atlantic fleets to cover sea areas such as the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf, and South/East African sea areas.
• Please let me know if you think I’m too conservative (i.e., committing too many ships) or not conservative enough in addressing the IJN sub threat.

The Threat. Threaten Sea Areas. ASW Escorts & Patrols.

Turn 23. May/June 1943. Allied #1. Naval Moves.

MTO Naval Moves
• Invasion, reinforcement, carrier strike and bombardment task forces massed off the Italian Coast in the 4 and 3-boxes.
• There’s an 80% of fine weather in the Med next allied impulse so there is a bit of risk associated with the Western Allies not executing phase 2 of Husky this impulse, which would have required a US super combine & CW combine limiting not only allied naval moves and task forces in the Med but in the Atlantic & Pacific too.
• Additional and smaller reinforcement task forces are also formed in the Italian coast 1 & 0-boxes.
• The allies have bare minimum, and truthfully less than the bare minimum, supply convoy escorts & patrols in both the West & East Med.
• Will the axis again send what subs they can try to break that supply?
• It’s a risk but one that the allies decide to take base on higher mission priorities; especially in the Atlantic.
• Back to the Italian Coast. Second line troops (e.g., NZ Terr & Morocco MIL) are brought in to relief better frontline units in the Balkans and free them up elsewhere (e.g., Italy).

Turn 23. May/June 1943. Allied #1. Naval Moves.

BOA Naval Moves
• German U-boat & Italian Sub threat covers the entire Atlantic & Med.
• With an 80% chance that German U-boats, likely along with the Italian (sub) counterparts, will sortie in force next (axis) impulse, getting ASW escorts and patrols out was definitely a priority and one which tipped the scale for all three Western Allied MPs taking a naval.
• One threaten Atlantic SA, Cape Basin, overlapped with the IJN I-boat threat.
• Western Allied Atlantic Command moved what ships and planes they could wrestle away from the other allied commands (i.e., Mediterranean & Pacific) out on ASW escorts and patrols to cover what they could.
• They decided to leave the Arctic lend lease route uncovered which could draw a U-boat flotilla or Italian sub away to attack that route and reducing a wolfpack somewhere by 1 U-boat flotilla. If sunk, the allies could easily replace 1 CP. So, to really do the job right the axis would require 2 or more U-boat flotillas/Sub Gps diluting their wolfpacks assumed to go after bigger game (i.e., sea areas with 6 to 11 CPs).
• Well just have to wait and see what the axis decides if Germany is forced to take a combine.
• The allies have it on good intelligence (Ultra & Bletchley Park again) that Germany will defer taking a combine if they get the chance for a full land on the Eastern Front in this good fighting weather.

German U-boat & Italian Sub Threat to BOA Sea Areas. USN, RN & Free French Atlantic Escorts & Patrols

Turn 23. May/June 1943. Allied #1. PTO. Combat.
China Sea (1/2).

Turn 23. May/June 1943. Allied #1. PTO. Combat.

China Sea (2/2). South China Sea.
Miss. Sea of Japan.
Miss.

Turn 23. May/June 1943. Allied #1. PTO. Combat.

Strategic Bombing of Japanese Oil.

Turn 23. May/June 1943. Axis #1. The Eastern Front. Southern Soviet Fronts.

Artillery Ground Strike. Caucasian Mts 61,71
Katyusha artillery div vs OOS & isolated XLIII inf corps. D10=2 -> flipped. After this flip some wargaming on the part of Koniev' staff. Attack Planning.
(1) It's just too good of an opportunity to take back one of the two Caucasian Mts passes held by out of supply and isolated axis units.
(2) 100% chance of victory with HQ support (Koniev). 97% chance without.
(3) Hate to use Koniev HQ-I up this early in the turn but he's likely to be ground struck with a good chance of flipping anyway so might as well use him.
(4) +12 planned assault carries with it a 68% chance of no loss, and definite GBA promotion (likely Mtn corps), 20% lose 1, 11% lose 2 & 1% lose 3.
(5) Koniev will be sacked, or more likely purged by Stalin, if he passes this chance up.
(6) So the land combat with HQ support is a GO!

Turn 23. Mar/Apr 1943. Eastern Front. Southern Fronts. Land Combat.

Turn 23. Mar/Apr 1943. Eastern Front. Siberian Fronts.

Turn 23. May/June 1943. Allied #1. Asian Theater. End of Impulse.

CCP China.
(1) 2-1 CCP partisan occupied Canton.
(2) Mao decides to hold pat for now given Japanese is likely to take a naval.
(3) A 3rd defender is moved into Sian.
(4) CCP Cav corps moves south to reform the Sian defensive line (hopefully).
(5) 2 CCP armies and warlord corps reposition to cover the Slik Road, Lanchow, Tiashui, Sian line. Nationalist China.

Turn 23. May/June 1943. Mouth of the Amazons. End of Impulse.

Turn 23. May/June 1943. PTO. Naval Moves.

USN/RN Intercept Attempts (1/2).

Turn 23. May/June 1943. PTO. Naval Moves.

USN/RN Intercept Attempts (2/2).

Turn 23. May/June 1943. PTO. Naval Moves.

China Sea. South China Sea. It's bedtime so naval combat in the these two PTO sea areas will have to wait until tomorrow.

Turn 23. May/June 1943. BOA & MTO. Naval Moves.

(1) Germany & Italy decide to use their U-boats & Subs to try to break allied supply to their forces in the Italian Coast, Italy & the Balkans.
(2) If successful this would most definitely delay allied phase 2 Husky amphibious landings.
(3) Will have to look at everything but the allies may limit their air reactions, especially in the Med, in order to fly out to higher boxes during naval air if they lose their supply chain in both the East & West Med.
(4) To make matters worse, IJN sub Gps move into the Red Sea and Arabian Sea to help Germany & Italy attempting to break this supply.
(5) The lone IJN Sub Sq in the Arabian Sea isn't there to search but to intercept in the case the CW lose their supply CPs in the Red Sea, take a combine next impulse and attempt to replace that CP moving through the Arabian Sea.
(6) Resolution of these sub combat, again, will have to wait until tomorrow as it's getting late.

Cape St. Vincent. West Med. East Med. IJN Support PTO NM. Red Sea & Arabian Sea.

Turn 23. May/June 1943. Axis #2. Naval Combat.

Cape St. Vincent.

Turn 23. May/June 1943. Axis #2. Naval Combat.

West Med. Round 1.
In hindsight the allies should have avoided and not fought. But hindsight is 20/20 ...