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For what it is worth it has always been my opinion that those who quickly dismiss Alfred ( particularly with the assininity of "let's see your AAR" or somesuch ) are merely highlighting their inability to understand the depth of his analysis.

What he says about the advice here and Greyjoy's habit of picking advice from mutually incompatible sources without reference to cohesiveness or the formation of a coherent long-term plan is spot on. Of course just because that advice is correct doesn't mean it is welcomed by the AAR group.

Alfred, it is positively melpomenean. I'll leave you to figure out just whom you are playing in this greek tragedy [;)]

Way to go GreyJoy. And a great AAR too!

Thanks guys for your support. You know how much it means to me...
 
However, even if not with the patient and the depth which was required, i tried to make some calculations about how many AVs does Rader has at hand right now.
 
At the start of Scenario 2 Japan has, more or less, 8500 AVs (only considering infantry units, so not Eng nor Tanks). I'd say that between 3000 and 4000 are scheldued to arrive from 8th dec 41 till Feb 43 (always talking about INF).
Then Japan gets 50 PPs each day.
The typical "chinese" japanese division costs 1200/1400 PPs. That means that each month Japan can buy a division.
I'm pretty sure he has bought all the tanks he could spare, so probably till now he has "only" bought 12, maybe 13, divisions (something like 5000 AVs).
So that brings to a total of something around 17,000 AVs only counting Infantry. if you consider also Tanks and Eng, we're probably somewhere around 20,000 (remember that he had 14,000 AVs at Jodpur last august).
 
We have already seen 7,000 AVs in SOPAC (4500 at PM, 2000 at Tulagi and more 500 at Russell Island). As far as i can tell(intel, recon etc) he has brought many more big units at Rabaul during the last 2/3 months.
 
I know he has regiments at Scoodra, at Diego, at Cocos Island, Iwo Jima, Guam and Timor. At Java he has at least 2 regiments and some tanks units.
I've spotted the 6th Guards Div at Surat (exactly where i didn't want it to be[:@]) and i'm sure most of his tanks are still India (intel reports), while the rest has been shipped to Java.
 
Let's say he needs 1000 AVs to garrison my former chinese bases. More 1000 for garrisoning Indian main cities.
 
Now let's guess he has 10,000 AVs in Sopac (7000 already known plus 3000 at Rabaul and in the other bases - i've spotted lots of "garrison" units around), 600 AVs in the Bonins, 2,000 in the Mariannas, 500 in the Kuriles, probably more 2,000 in the DEI, 500 in Burma, say 200 at Scoodra and Diego, i'd say 500 at least at Colombo.
 
The rest could be easily in India, waiting for me to come.
I know this is not math. It's just guess, but i don't think we're that far from truth...
 
I've also made tests with Hellcats against Tojos and A6M3s and A6M5s. The Hellcats is superior to the IJN planes, but if not inferior nothing more than equal with the Tojo.
 
My decision to stay and fight in the Solomons is also dictated by my will to grind him down into a theatre where i can fight on decent conditions but still being on the defensive side, Playing an active defence. I know he's still superior. But our production will become acceptable in 2 months and....above all...i cannot really stand the idea of leaving 130,000 of my best troops to rot there. I wanna do my best to avoid a pacific stalingrad.
 
What is my plan? As easy as possible. I'll do what beppi, ADB and others have suggested (even if not in this context). I'll build up the Espiritu Santu, The New hebrids and the Fijis. Every single dot base will be built. I wanna make an iron ring around Ndani, Lungaville and Suva.
he wants to encircle Lunga with a ring of fire? Very well, we'll back it up with bases full of 4Es, DBs and fighters.
String must be right: as long as i have problems resupplying my men, he's gonna have lots of problems to resupplying 10,000 AVs for an offensive!
I still have 3 operative AFs in the front line. He's the one who has 80,000 men stuck on the beaches at Tulagi.
He's the one who has to find a solution to free them.
He's the one who has to attack.
He's the one who has to risk.
 
Let's see it on the positive side: he has to come to me. He has to invade. We've seen how bad it was his first landing at Tulagi... There won't be another PM where he can easily march all the way to my positions. He will have to land. And there, on the beaches, well entrenched, his troops will find the best the western powers can put on the ground: the US MARINES.
 
Again...i want to believe.
 
 

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

For what it is worth it has always been my opinion that those who quickly dismiss Alfred ( particularly with the assininity of "let's see your AAR" or somesuch ) are merely highlighting their inability to understand the depth of his analysis.

What he says about the advice here and Greyjoy's habit of picking advice from mutually incompatible sources without reference to cohesiveness or the formation of a coherent long-term plan is spot on. Of course just because that advice is correct doesn't mean it is welcomed by the AAR group.

Alfred, it is positively melpomenean. I'll leave you to figure out just whom you are playing in this greek tragedy [;)]

for what it is worth on my part it is just on "how" and in which way this advice is presented! - the fact that Alfred is well acquainted with this game (I have often benefited from his suggestions) and has a sound understanding of warfare as such, I have never doubted nor questioned once...

Any chance of an updated map GreyJoy?

Terje

Hello GY - I'm playing the Japanese side and have a sense of the costs involved of buying 'Chinese' divisions and garrisoning captured cities. The good divisions with high AV and experience are more like 1,800 PP each (from the Manchuko armies). And remember that 'garrisoning' units are lumpy, in that if you divide a division into it's three component parts, you'll have about 120-140 AV each. That means many cities will be over garrisoned with more AV than they need. My point is that I think your estimates of available AV coming out of China is too large by a factor of at least 30 to 40 percent. I estimated that Japan would need about 4 to 5 divisions in addition to what is already garrisoned at the start of the game to adequately garrison China.

Good luck and keep gaming!

Regards Paul

Just a question from left field . . .

What have you got defending NZ? Land, sea, and air?

Ok guys, here we go again!

Here's the situation map of the 10th Feb 1943

As you probably remember Japan has easily conquered with Paras Rennell Island (after a great pounding by 150 Helens), Thousand Ships Bay and Auki (the little dot base just north of Tulagi). At the same time my naval search has been reported now for days a constant presence of small vessels coming and going from Munda, Vella-La Vella and the other dot bases south of Shortland. He's clearly advancing south, moving in infantry units, base forces and Engineers. If he can base his planes in 8 different bases...i simply cannot shut them all at once, even with 200 4Es at hand!


AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Feb 08,09 43

We've ordered some little offensive actions, both in the Air and by sea, using small TFs composed of 2 or 3 DDs with the idea of interdicting his shippings.
My DDs will use Tulagi as base, while i based my 18 Corsair Group at Tassafaronga in order to provide a sweep mission

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Panggoe , at 111,133

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 48 NM, estimated altitude 34,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 18 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 12
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 7
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 11
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 33
Ki-46 KAI Dinah x 3



Allied aircraft
F4U-1 Corsair x 18


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 1 destroyed
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1 Corsair: 4 destroyed


mmmm...not exactly what i hoped for...F4Us seems inferior to the P-38Gs for what concerns sweeps----

--------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on Panggoe , at 111,133

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid spotted at 13 NM, estimated altitude 35,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 4
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 1
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 5
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 4



Allied aircraft
P-38G Lightning x 23


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 2 destroyed
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 1 destroyed

No Allied losses


P-38s are a lot better....


However, while he keep on sweeping Lunga, Tulagi and Tassafaronga with 100 fighters (i give him no opposition here, having moved almost everything back to Ndeni), my 4Es come to soften the newly built Panggoe base south of Shortland...the corsairs didn't soften enough the air defences and we suffered some losses...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Panggoe , at 111,133

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 33 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 5
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 4
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 6
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 16
Ki-46 KAI Dinah x 2



Allied aircraft
B-17D Fortress x 11
B-17E Fortress x 3
B-17F Fortress x 5
B-24D Liberator x 37


Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 1 destroyed, 3 damaged
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 2 destroyed on ground
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 1 destroyed, 7 damaged
D3A1 Val: 5 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
B-17D Fortress: 3 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 2 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
67 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled



Airbase hits 12
Airbase supply hits 10
Runway hits 30



However the raid was usefull because i need to slow him down as much as possible. It will be an expensive strategy, but i think it's the right one: buy time!

Our 2Es from Ndeni pounded the jap paras at Rennell Island badly...i'll get that damned island back to my hands! Cannot let it fall so easily in japs' bloody hands!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Yokosuka Assault SNLF, at 113,140 (Rennell Island)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 30 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes


Allied aircraft
B-25C Mitchell x 51
B-26B Marauder x 10


Allied aircraft losses
B-25C Mitchell: 2 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
31 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Our A2A kill ratio remains good. We are always winning 1.5/2 to 1...but 4Es and Corsairs are starting to suffer of pilots losses...that's the price to pay for going on the offensive missions

GreyJoy: You, sir, are a showman of the highest order. One again, thanks for the entertainment you provide in this epic clash of wills. May the man with the biggest cojones win!
Cheers,
CC

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Just a question from left field . . .

What have you got defending NZ? Land, sea, and air?

Only land units. We've shipped lots of supplies and fuel since day 1 to NZ and we've extracted only some air units from there.
I really doubt however that he's coming for NZ now. He'll need a full scale invasion and he cannot for sure invade NZ bypassing The Solomons, New Hebrids and New Caledonia....and all those places have strong defences that he cannot simply ignore. No, i don't think, at least as far as my CVs are afloat, that he can even think about invading NZ.

ORIGINAL: pws1225

Hello GY - I'm playing the Japanese side and have a sense of the costs involved of buying 'Chinese' divisions and garrisoning captured cities. The good divisions with high AV and experience are more like 1,800 PP each (from the Manchuko armies). And remember that 'garrisoning' units are lumpy, in that if you divide a division into it's three component parts, you'll have about 120-140 AV each. That means many cities will be over garrisoned with more AV than they need. My point is that I think your estimates of available AV coming out of China is too large by a factor of at least 30 to 40 percent. I estimated that Japan would need about 4 to 5 divisions in addition to what is already garrisoned at the start of the game to adequately garrison China.

Good luck and keep gaming!

Regards Paul

Good to know! Thank you mate! I've followed Alfred's suggestion and bombarded enemy units at Chungking. He still has 4500 AVs there...

However the Solomons aren't India. Here the supplies must be brought by sea to every single base...so moving around all those units won't be easy for him! and even a counterlanding won't be an easy task if he has to bring in thousands of AVs...

Subs have been reorganized.

I have divided the map into 4 main sectors for what concerns subs.

The Bengal Bay: here we'll move 30 subs in order to start harrassing his communication lines between India and Singapore. If he wants to move back more troops he'll have to devote lots of attention to ASW warfare.

Truk approaches: we're moving a growing number of subs to cover the western and northern approaches to Truk, in order to try to harrass his traffic.

Rabaul northern approaches: the same as for Truk.

DEI-Southern Borneo: we've found that Palembang and the Java Straits are heavily guarded by his Air ASW, so we've moved 3 of our subs (operating from Perth) to these waters. So far they've managed to sink a TK and an AK...but contacts are growing in numbers...

Other subs are operating between Iwo Jima and the Mariannas, around the Solomons (to cover my flanks) and as advanced recon between the Aleutinas and the Kuriles.-

Here's the planned expansion of my bases to backup my positions in the Solomons. The first to be built will be those close to Ndeni. Ordered to 5 Seabees units to move ASAP from SUVA (where they recently arrived from Christmas Is.).

Supplies and fuel are flowing down the pipeline from Christmas to Pago Pago, Suva and Lungaville and Ndeni

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

GreyJoy: You, sir, are a showman of the highest order. One again, thanks for the entertainment you provide in this epic clash of wills. May the man with the biggest cojones win!
Cheers,
CC

[:D]. Your entertainment is my pleasure my friend[:)]

Thx

On subs: I advise putting more effort into harassing enemy communications from DEI and in NRA at the expense of reducing sub strength in the Bay of Bengal. Build up Midway and whatever island in Aleuitians you like as forward refueling bases and at least try sending patrols to straighth around Formosa and to Sakhalin.

ORIGINAL: FatR

On subs: I advise putting more effort into harassing enemy communications from DEI and in NRA at the expense of reducing sub strength in the Bay of Bengal. Build up Midway and whatever island in Aleuitians you like as forward refueling bases and at least try sending patrols to straighth around Formosa and to Sakhalin.

I think he tried that and got murdered by ASW Helens

Yes, he has Helens on ASW at Iwo, in the Mariannas, at Formosa and in every choke point of any interest. It's hard to get there without being attacked by his damned ASW planes!

However i have AS and operating bases (with supplies and fuel) at Midway, Christmas, Addak Island, Suva, Lungaville, Perth and Brisbane. I probably overcommitted in the Bay of Bengal, but those subs were already operating defending Karachi so it was wiser imho to let them there instead of bringing them back to the pacific thus losing some months...

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Feb 12,13 43


Another day of tragedy for the RN. Battleship Warspite has been sunk by 3 torpedoes launched by a packs of 3 subs who chased here and her sister Valiant during her journey for the safe port of Sydney... The escort did its best, sinking one sub (I-123) and damaging the other one (I-6), but the third escaped the surveillance and got the big ship... The RN till now has lost 6 BBs during this war...with the 8 sunk at PH...it's 14[X(]

However, i promised you and myself i won't go whining like a girl-child anymore, so let's go on.

The turn opened with 5 allied DDs running havoc among the jap shippings north of Lunga. We sent 2 TFs at flank speed up to Munda, passing north and south of the Solomons channell... we got something but could have gone better...most of enemy ships managed to flee just in time when the allies were reporting to get closer...[:@]

We got 1 xAK and 5 PBs during our trip. Hope that these actions will slow him down in his building process...

P-38s swept Russell Island, finding a LRCAP there. They fought well, exchaging 1 of them for 2 Nicks and 2 Rufes, cleaning the way for the 4Es that followed.

Then our 2Es bombed the hell out of the jap paras at Rennell Island, and the 1st USMC Para Bn, followed by the 1st Fiji Commando para unit, landed there, transported by 130 C-47s, and killed what was left of the japanese elite unit. We're gonna fight back for every single piece of land, for every grain of sand, for every damned sip of salt water in these bloody islands!

His zeros and Tojos swept Lunga and Tulagi again, finding no opposition. Cat&Mouse.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Panggoe at 112,134, Range 6,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
xAK Daifuku Maru, Shell hits 22, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DD Benham
DD Lang
DD Sterett




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Panggoe at 111,133, Range 10,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
PB Syozui Maru, Shell hits 17, heavy fires, heavy damage
PB Tenzan Maru, Shell hits 5, on fire
PB Taiko Maru, Shell hits 10, heavy fires, heavy damage
PB Yomei Maru, Shell hits 14, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied Ships
DD Benham
DD Lang
DD Sterett



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Rekata Bay at 113,134, Range 6,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
PB Chiyo Maru #4, Shell hits 35, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DD Arunta
DD Piet Hein







--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Nadi at 125,167

Japanese Ships
SS I-23

Allied Ships
BB Warspite, Torpedo hits 1
DD Lardner
DD Bailey


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Nadi at 126,167

Japanese Ships
SS I-6, hits 2, heavy damage

Allied Ships
BB Warspite, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
DD Woodworth




We cannot hope to hold Rennell Island under the present conditions, cause we cannot deliver there eng or base forces, nor infantry to hold against another para-assault. So we've ordered to our Cats to get there and bring our guys back to Ndani. If he wants it back he can land another para unit. I'll kick it out again. I just need that that base isn't becoming a japanese operative AF.

At Tulagi our forts are back to 4 and 50%, despite the bombings. Supplies level remain constant between 10k and 20k. The flow is granted by C-47s, small xAKLs, and fast APDs TFs.

Lunga fortifications are up to level 7 and Tassaforonga to level 5 and 93% [8D]

Forgot to say that i've placed a crack ASW unit of B-25 at Suva. All pilots have 70+ in ASW skill...the unit already damaged 1 of the nasty subs...but couldn't avoid the loss of the Warspite...nor could the Catalinas and Hudsons who were looking at her path from Suva to Noumea...

Oh, and before you ask...yes, there was an escort which was followed by the BBTF...the escort sunk the first sub, but expended all its DC ammo....bad luck i'd say [:)]