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Turn 14

Panzer TOE's remain in good to great shape generally.

13th Panzer is finally more servicable at 86% TOE, after having been reduced to 68% or so in a vicious counter-atttack 6 or so turns ago.

Fatigue rises. The worst unit actually remains in the breach, on the way to Moscow. Fortunately it is double stacked, and it can't be picked off. Otherwise it's a prime candidate for a vicious counter-attack, I think. YMMV.

I now have an Infantry unit at 50% TOE, and 10 or so in the 60's. 20 Infantry Divisions in the 70's. The rest are 80+. More and more of the Infantry Divisions are rotated out of the line in AGN. Fortunately, with the 2 armies being maxxed out command wise, I have suffecient power in the otherwise small space to rotate units effectively.

In AGC, forces are stretched thin and I can't rotate. Fortunately the worst are in AGN. I can make do with the infantry combat power available in AGC. Especially as they have the bulk of the panzers now.

In AGS, Seventeenth Army can rotate effectively, Sixth Army has to long a line yet, and I'm not rotating. There's only a few lowish TOE units in AGS, so it's doing well. I need more SU's in AGS though, definitely. Hopefully within 2 turns I will be able to release a flood from AGN.

Getting the Finns activated remains priority 1. Drive on Moscow a close second now.

Only units under 75% TOE are placed on refit. I hope they bounce back to low to mid 70's, at least after next supply phase. The rest will just have to make due a turn or 2 without being placed on refit.

A few observations on the combat around Lenningrad:
 
First, well played, going for the backdoor jugular (sounds a little like gay slang, that) has gotta be the way forward.
 
To the fighting itself: All three battles were close shaves, winning at odds 2.2:1 or 2.3:1.
 
When you look at initial CV calculations, none would have succeeded on unmodified CV odds (take the final battle - 507 vs 348 = 1.6:1 or so). So how did the Axis end up with 2.3:1 in this battle?
 
First: terrible elementary error from Oleg. His defending stack is fighting at 80% command modifier. At this point in the game, this is perhaps the most important hex on the map bar the Narva backdoor hex. And Oleg didnt see to it that the three units holding it were under the same army command. It would have cost him 1AP to see to this, and that 20% alone would quite likely have made the difference. Same applies to one of the other combats. You of course are also at 80% on this one, but that was through necessity needing to commit two korps to the attack.
 
Second: air power. The Luftwaffe showed up in force, the VVS didnt show. This is a big force multiplier. Has Oleg got his ground support setting ramped up at this crucial juncture? Has Oleg ensured that his air units are in range, and that they are under the command of one of his Rating: 6 air commanders? Who knows, but for whatever reason his men are cursing the empty skies above them.
 
Third: No SUs showed up for Oleg. Has he got a good commander controlling this hex? Has that commander got plenty of hardcore artillery SUs attached? Or was he just extremely unlucky in his initiative rolls? We'll have to ask Oleg those questions.
 
It's fairly predictable that Oleg is going to be outraged especially by that third battle where infantry in a city hex with level four forts have been bounced, but at least one, possibly more elementary errors on his part have played massive roles in the outcomes.

ORIGINAL: squatter
Has Oleg got his ground support setting ramped up at this crucial juncture? Has Oleg ensured that his air units are in range, and that they are under the command of one of his Rating: 6 air commanders?

Squatter, don't mean to hijack Senno's thread, BUT I wanted to ask what you meant by Oleg having his "ground support setting ramped up"?

ORIGINAL: 76mm

ORIGINAL: squatter
Has Oleg got his ground support setting ramped up at this crucial juncture? Has Oleg ensured that his air units are in range, and that they are under the command of one of his Rating: 6 air commanders?

Squatter, don't mean to hijack Senno's thread, BUT I wanted to ask what you meant by Oleg having his "ground support setting ramped up"?

Yeah, 'pologies Senno for hijack.

I just mean in his air doctrine settings has he set ground support bombers = 100%, fighter escort = 100% and fighter intercept = 100% to maximise the amount of planes that will try to help out. And, of course, set 'percent required to fly = 0%'.

Only problem is that this is a broad brush, and while you might want these settings to apply over Lenningrad, these will apply across the whole front. But if I was in Oleg's shoes I would be doing everything possible to hold LG, and this would be one of them.

Senno..leave at least a couple good mobile units up north. You will need them to cross the neva once the infantry make a hole. The area north of the Neva just east of the city is a typical weak spot.
 
In the center, based on what turn it is, you will be lucky to get adequate forces adjacent to Moscow before mud hits. Continue to push though, you might get lucky and take out Moscow.

ORIGINAL: 76mm
TD has played a couple of great games, but I also think that he has been fortunate in his selection of German opponents., who have been rather conservative.

Just to be clear, I am talking about actual counterattacks, rather than slipping units into gaps to relieve pockets, etc. This is critical for Soviets to do, but this doesn't qualify as counterattacks in my book.

Well, as a matter of fact they both chose me, not the other way around. I was looking for opponents and they appeared [:)] Fortunate? Yes, indeed... but so far only with the first opponent. I will not sell the skin till I have caught the bear though (my current opponent). I expect him to massacre me (no matter some mistakes). At least until mud [8D] Tick tock tick tock...

On the first turns my current opponent was very agressive though... I managed to cut many of his panzers off (aka I fought fire with fire) and I am starting to suspect that those maneuvers made him rethink his advance aka now he seems more cautious. So maybe (and only maybe) I "invited" him to be more cautious, or less ambitious if you prefer. Game minds? I hope! [:)]

TD, no intent whatsoever to take anything away from you, you've done great, and certainly no intent to imply you've selected "easy" opponents...its just that in my limited experience, with a really aggressive player, concentrating your troops near his is an invitation for him to encircle them, and I don't think either of your opponents have done much of that...

I'm not saying Sovs should engage in wholesale retreat, but you gotta be careful.

ORIGINAL: squatter

A few observations on the combat around Lenningrad:

First, well played, going for the backdoor jugular (sounds a little like gay slang, that) has gotta be the way forward.

To the fighting itself: All three battles were close shaves, winning at odds 2.2:1 or 2.3:1.

When you look at initial CV calculations, none would have succeeded on unmodified CV odds (take the final battle - 507 vs 348 = 1.6:1 or so). So how did the Axis end up with 2.3:1 in this battle?

First: terrible elementary error from Oleg. His defending stack is fighting at 80% command modifier. At this point in the game, this is perhaps the most important hex on the map bar the Narva backdoor hex. And Oleg didnt see to it that the three units holding it were under the same army command. It would have cost him 1AP to see to this, and that 20% alone would quite likely have made the difference. Same applies to one of the other combats. You of course are also at 80% on this one, but that was through necessity needing to commit two korps to the attack.

Second: air power. The Luftwaffe showed up in force, the VVS didnt show. This is a big force multiplier. Has Oleg got his ground support setting ramped up at this crucial juncture? Has Oleg ensured that his air units are in range, and that they are under the command of one of his Rating: 6 air commanders? Who knows, but for whatever reason his men are cursing the empty skies above them.

Third: No SUs showed up for Oleg. Has he got a good commander controlling this hex? Has that commander got plenty of hardcore artillery SUs attached? Or was he just extremely unlucky in his initiative rolls? We'll have to ask Oleg those questions.

It's fairly predictable that Oleg is going to be outraged especially by that third battle where infantry in a city hex with level four forts have been bounced, but at least one, possibly more elementary errors on his part have played massive roles in the outcomes.

Good points, Squatter.

And no worries gents, the discussion is helpful for us noobs.

While I happily discuss and show my own errors, I remain unqualified for deep observations of the Soviet defense. I try to show the facts as they exist and I can detect for the Soviet side, and what I did, basically. While not discussing future plans heavily. I don't think Oleg reads my AAR, but I do fear little birdies whispering in ears, as it were.

Now, with that said:

The 2 hexes to the east weren't imposing at all. Just 3 ants stacked, and not fortified heavily. I later ran into the higher quality infantry, on the way towards Moscow. So, his choice was to defend Moscow heavily. At least with the infantry.

I don't know if he has grasped the importance of SU's and lining up the command as force multipliers, You would have to ask him in his AAR, I suppose. I was surprised not to run into masses of them in these attacks. And after the first attack succeeded, it helped my confidence about further attacks.

I doubt he left a good commander or tons of SU's in the area. He didn't really send units into the Leningrad pocket, recon shows roughly the same amount of units this turn. So, except for switching a cavalry unit out for an infantry unit, no significant change made that I could detect in the Leningrad metro area. They just aren't packed in there like sardines, like I expected to see. Given the force, I didn't think Rokko was in there.

So, except for the 2 Crops attack, I wasn't very worried. I just don't get the impresssion that this was a do or die fight for the Soviets as the withdrawal towards the Volkhov made it easier to move my forces.

I almost left the more difficult hex as tried to get around into the backdoor. But as I juggled forces east in planning, I just wasn't getting the combat power to the point of attack to hit the backdoor this turn. I might have been able to with my Panzers. But a deliberate attack across a major river really worried me. So I took out the 2 smaller stacks, while withdrawing the Panzers for a turn.

But having the stacks ready to go for Leningrad, just sitting there.... My curiosity got the better of me. I decided to attack the last hex on the south of the river. And it worked. I was amazed, but didn't quite all out of my chair as I really committed heavily to the attack.

The work I have done to maximize the commands, without over-stuffing them paid off. The Corps are all 4 units. The armies 3 Corps of 4. I have borrowed a Corps from Second Army, as they aren't very active, just screening. but that Corps remains under Second Armies command. And good commanders are assigned, generally. So my SU's came to the party.

My air force, is close by, as interdiction hurts more and more. I don't like to move out of fighter cover, at all. So I was well within range for the Luftwaffe to aid the combat in force. They remain an effective force, as I don't use them for any manual missions other than fueling the Panzers, and tons of recon. Haven't bombed airfields or anything else since turn 1. These attacks were the first of the entire turn, so the Air Force came out for the first 2 attacks. The third didn't receive their aid.

ORIGINAL: Sabre21

Senno..leave at least a couple good mobile units up north. You will need them to cross the neva once the infantry make a hole. The area north of the Neva just east of the city is a typical weak spot.

In the center, based on what turn it is, you will be lucky to get adequate forces adjacent to Moscow before mud hits. Continue to push though, you might get lucky and take out Moscow.

Thanks Sabre.

Fourth Panzer is hidden somewhat. They remain close by though, by rail.

I haven't run into enough mobile units yet. So he must have a reserve somewhere. I'm cautious, I must confess...

Yeah, Moscow is gonna be close. Ninth army ended movement on the tail of the Panzers. If I want to grab Moscow, it might be the panzers bulling in to do it.

Oleg present a fine historic defense, I think. Falling back from river to river as I probe, prod and push. Given his defense, and knowledge of history, I have to assume he's really gonna gun for me in the Blizzard. So, the maskirovka must continue, even as I need forces to the front.

ORIGINAL: 76mm

TD, no intent whatsoever to take anything away from you, you've done great, and certainly no intent to imply you've selected "easy" opponents...its just that in my limited experience, with a really aggressive player, concentrating your troops near his is an invitation for him to encircle them, and I don't think either of your opponents have done much of that...

I'm not saying Sovs should engage in wholesale retreat, but you gotta be careful.

I belieive that TD's aggressive play helps to forestall encirclement. But it is a highwire act, certainly.

I've certainly never heard that 2ndACR isn't aggressive. He is, very much so.

TD is doing his best to contain him, for sure. This is gonna be a great AAR, also for sure. And 2ndACR's AAR is interesting as well.

2ndACR has laid out his strategic intent in his AAR, though. So I won't discuss any further.

And, lastly, discussion of my opponent is OK, but we are getting far afield with discussion of TD and 2ndACR's game.

You may happily shred my game here.[:)]

Uh, nothing to shred here, you're doing great. Sorry for the hijack...

No worries, mate.

I haven't check out your AAR yet today.[:)]

Turn 14

AGC:

At the joint between AGN and AGC, Second Army is stretched beyond capacity. This is what I have been worried about, basically. A nice long ledge to counter-attack out of come the blizzard. Forutnately I have widened the breach at the south shoulder significantly. So I don't fear a complete cutoff of Second Panzer. But, he could really mess me up, of course.

So, I finally have to commit security troops to the front lines, broken down into regiments. I hate this with a passion.[:@]

I have nothing to spare, as available forces have moved towards Moscow. I will take the risk, as there's no guarantee his recon will discover the relative weakness for the next few turns.

The Corps operating with AGN can come down, if I manage to activate the Finns. They are heavily committed in that endeavour, though.

I move forward to cut off the angle, but remain thin. Will he detect the weakness before I can grab the prize?

Third Panzers infantry also lends a hand, as Ninth Army has enough forward, and I have to remain somewhat balanced. I'm really right at the breaking point though. Really really really need those Finns.

Edit: Wrong screeny, enemy hexes now shown.

2nd Edit: Grrr, still wrong screenie. What can I say? I take a frickin lot of screenshots.

Turn 14

AGC (post-movement)

Elements of Fourth Army and the Cav of Second Panzer seal off the southern shoulder creating a pocket. The southern shoulder is safe, for now. The FBD move forward and will bend away from the ledge as best we can to keep that threat as low as we can.

Elements of Third Panzer remain free for tasking. Should Fourth Army punch a hole, a drive to Orel or some other southern point could be in the cards.

Oleg remains hard to fool, though. So I expect him to remain balanced as best he can, while heading off the primary threat in the sector, which I believe would be the drive on Moscow, hehe.

Attack everywhere! Assault with security divisions and over-run with railroad repair! Do not stop til you are sipping champagne in Gorky!

Jawohl, mein PDH! /click.

Oww, I think I dislocated a hip.....[:D]

He falls back just enough that MP's are sucked down.... Sooooo frustrating, grrr.

Turn 14

AGS:

In AGS, Seventeenth Army advances to contact. And finds the Soviets well dug in. An attack by 3 healty and happy German divisions is launched. Unfortunately, I am out of AP's, and the units have no SU's attached. The attack fails.

Thus, absolutely illustrating the critical difference that command structure and SU's make. They weren't in the same Corps, either. Could have succeeded with proper juggling for sure.

The attacks north succeed, here in AGS, fail. Difference = SU's and not in the same Corps.

The Army kicked some in, but none were at the point of attack. Luftwaffe even flew....

PS: Hmmm, lots of Soviet recon there.....Searching for Panzers, and/or pre-planning for blizzard, or all of the above as general recon? It worries me, he doesn't recon much down here.

Turn 14:

AGS:

Sample unit used in last failed attack.

I am unsure about German proclivities, so does 69 (in the morale column) mean the Germans are happy, or not?[;)]

Supply state is ok, they are close to FBD, and railhead, but it's on other side of Dnepr, chugging towards Cherkassy.

Turn 14:

AGS:

Across Sixth Armies broad front a mixture of helds, and wins takes place. We are able to move south by southeast somewhat, and create a mini pocket of one little stack. I saw more mobile units, and happily smacked those. Without Panzers in the area, it's a slog, and I really, really hate the Panzers where they are now. That's my fault, and I will take steps to change their strategic location. Rolling down the east bank of the Dnepr just causes my opponent to roll along like a tumble weed. I can't break through.

I absolutely need more SU's and AP's left over. Next turn I will start the turn with AGS, I think. And give it what support I can, from the start.

He is dug in well enough to impede infantry movement, generally.

I have room for a supply buildup for the Panzers as well.

I hope to be able to conduct a land grab and form a nice pocket before the blizzard. Hopes are fading for before the mud, though.

PS: Hadn't moved the Hungarian Mobile at this point.

Turn 14:

AGS:

Oodles of recon is flown this turn. This is both good and bad.

Good that you know where the Soviets are.

Bad that you know where the endless amounts of Soviets are.

It can just can be plain scary. So, to counter that, what works for me is planning and at least trying to follow that plan.

I'd really like to hit the historical advance mark. So I will continue to try to accomplish that in the next few turns. Operational plans will be changed, though. As we struggle to break through with limited support overall.

Recon shows some gaps in the line. Oleg confuses me, as I locate some gaps in the line. Are they invitations to drive through in ambush? Or are they there as he is stretched thin and couldn't cover them? His recent defense at Leningrad compounds this confusion. As Leningrad just wasn't as heavily defended as I thought it might be.

Well, overthinking it can be detrimental. So, I will just have to formulate and stick to my own plan. I have to play my game to the best of my ability.

I know this is opposite of PDH pretty much, he takes what is given happily, as he engages in jiu jitsu. I'm not that aggressive or confident yet. If my Panzers get cut off, I may lack the force to cut them out, as the failed attacks show.

Next game as Germans I will try the PDH approach from the start.