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ORIGINAL: timmyab

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.

Sig up needs them all,

Not so. See Tarhunus v timmyab.
You might be neglecting to add the bonus for controlling the Soviet capital?

yes, my mistake .

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.

ORIGINAL: timmyab

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.

Sig up needs them all,

Not so. See Tarhunus v timmyab.
You might be neglecting to add the bonus for controlling the Soviet capital?

yes, my mistake .

thanks to both of you - incredibly useful for sorting out ideas of the most likely threat in 1942. My suspicion is that SigUp is going to try to destroy enough of the Red Army that taking the VPs is incidental, but I think I'll only really when I start to see his deployment around Moscow in the spring - if the bulk of the Pzrs are in the south then he is probably not going to prioritise Moscow

T32 29 January – 5 February 1942: "Can you lift the hasps of steel?"

The end of January brought the inevitable German counterattacks on the Soviet spearheads, but this time Stavka had reserves and fresh formations to hand. North of Moscow, the offensive was widened in an attempt to dislodge the German forces holding the Klin-Povarovo line.



The sector held north of Torzhok, held by the Volkhov Front had lain quiet since the October battles. Taking advantage of lax German reconnaisance, Stavka had released 4 Shock and 33 Armies from reserve and allocated them to this sector.

Partisans hit the rail lines in the Valdai sector, briefly isolated the axis forces and the full weight of 4 SA struck towards Bologoe. The police formation, clearly not expected the ferocity of a full Soviet offensive, broke and ran.


(4 SA moving up to its attack positions)

Around Kalinin, 22 Army also went back on the offensive on a previously quiet sector. The German 6 ID was caught by surprise and fell back, giving the Red Army a valuable bridgehead over the Tveritsa and allowing them to push to the outskirts of Turginovo [1]



To the south, NW Front rested the bulk of 52 and 55 Armies but took advantage of the German decision to form strong points and infiltrate tank and ski units into the gap trying to cut their supply lines. For the first time, Stavka authorised the reserve formations of the Moscow District to go over to the offensive. Fresh units of 29 and 30 Armies took advantage of the earlier gains at Istra and.drove back the German 23 Infantry Corps. However, an attempt by 29 Army to exploit this victory was held in a desparate rearguard action by the Germans trapped against the reservoir and with the entire sector in danger of being encircled.



Reserve Front mostly went over to the defensive, content to re-organise and recover from its victories of the previous week. However, Western and Leningrad Fronts renewed their offensives north and south of Kaluga.



13 Army, supported by elements of 3 and 20 Armies struck to the north of Medyn. In the air, the VVS reported significant Luftwaffe interdicton, but was still able to provide support to the attack. Backed by almost 2,000 guns, in ferociously brutal fighting, the German 38 Infantry Corps was forced back. Even a counter-attack by 20 Panzer was not enough to hold off almost 140,000 Soviet riflemen. Instead, running into sustained Soviet resistance, the Panzer attack was driven back, leaving 23 tanks burning in the snow.


(fighting near Medyn)

At the same time as the Medyn battle was raging, the bulk of 3 Army struck towards Kaluga. Again the VVS reported fierce air battles, but Soviet bombers added to the damage done by 700 guns. Here, the rest of 38 Infantry Corps was driven back, again with heavy losses on both sides.

[2]



In the meantime, Leningrad Front attacked again around Belev. 2 Shock and 24 Army drove towards Bolkhov and opened up a gap between the German defenses at Orel and those on the Kozelsk-Peremyshl line. 1 Shock, moved into the gap and supported by over 100 tanks (mostly T-60s) tried to eliminate the German toehold over the Zhizdra at Koselsk. However, here the German commanders had anticipated the blow and Tolbukhin's elite units took heavy losses as they failed to breach the hasty German defenses [3].

Even so, Leningrad Front was able to exploit the victories at Bolkhov and commit armoured formations deep into the German rear.



Most of the rest of the front remained quiet. Elements of Bryansk Front probed the German defenses at Kursk. Around Rostov, the Germans established another small bridgehead on the south bank of the frozen Don. Taking advantage of the commitment of their reserves, 37 Army strcuk south of Sverdlovsk and routed a Rumanian division, disrupting the defenses of the German 34 Infantry Corps at the same time.



Losses matched the intensity of the combat. The axis forces lost 19,000 men, 66 tanks and 34 planes. Soviet losses were 27,000 men, 76 tanks (60 of which were T-60s) and 193 planes. Losses were not confined to front line troops, Maks Reiter and Sergei Denisov were killed. Despite his failure at Koselsk, Tolbukhin was promoted to General-Leytenant.



Overall, the Red Army grew by nearly 100,000 men, 2,000 guns and 150 tanks.



For all the intensity of the fighting, the front lines had scarcely shifted in January. For this stalemate, the Axis forces had taken 265,000 losses, 500 tanks and nearly 200 aircraft. Soviet losses were 150,000 men, 480 tanks and 900 aircraft.


(overview of the front and key production data for the end of Jan 1942)


[1] I know the combat system can be random, but this was actually almost embarrassing. This attack was to cause losses and increase the pressure on this sector – I never expected it to succeed.
[2] SigUp has moved from defending on a solid line to leaving gaps and making stacks. I think this is a risk as it means I can often attack from 3 sides and if I win, its starting to open up inviting gaps to slip a tank brigade into.
[3] Given the issue with the earlier attack, I fear this was karma. Pity, it would have given me a 3 hex wide breakthrough and with fresh tank brigades to exploit it.

These numbers are very interesting. However, I am very suspicious about them. Could you please post the overall losses for Axis and Soviets?

Your supply stores are extremely low. Are you playing with .15 and do you see any drastic supply shortages in the northern armies?

ORIGINAL: Oshawott

These numbers are very interesting. However, I am very suspicious about them. Could you please post the overall losses for Axis and Soviets?

Your supply stores are extremely low. Are you playing with .15 and do you see any drastic supply shortages in the northern armies?

Attached is the losses ground and air, plus destroyed:



As to supply, my northern front is in a bit of a mess but then I put it on a very low TOE to channel replacements to other sectors.

I may have over-used the Il-4s in an attempt to maximise the partisan war, which I guess would have been burning off supply. I'm now scaling that back just to a few VVS bases in a narrow sector and have sent most of the Il-4s to reserve. I'll seriously reduce the commitment of the Pe-2s at the end of Feb but at the moment am doing well out of maximising the VVS' contribution.

T34 – Set orderly, for burial (5 – 12 February 1942)

The period 7-8 February seemed to bring nothing but reports of defeat at the nightly Stavka conferences. From Kalinin to Rostov, the Germans unleashed their Panzer reserves on the various Soviet breakthroughs in the previous week. Each Soviet offensive was systematically halted and then thrown back in heavy fighting.


(ouch)


(Soviet PoWs near Rostov)

Following these setbacks, Stavka issued new orders to the combat fronts. On the lower Don, the Caucasus and Trans-Caucasus Fronts broke contact, falling back to more easily defended positions [1]. In the Ukraine, South Western and South Fronts had their original attack orders cancelled and were ordered to dig in along their current front line.

Bryansk and Leningrad Fronts pulled back their main offensive units to rest and recover. Around Moscow, West and Kalinin Fronts held their current positions. In these sectors, Stavka still had not abandoned plans for further operations.

In the north, the Soviet offensive was renewed. A massive partisan attack cut the German rail lines between Pskov and Leningrad. On the front lines, 4 Shock continued to probe the German lines around Bologoe, this time their 10 Infantry Corps bore the brunt of the Soviet attack.



At the same time 3 Shock completed its reorganisation and was released from Stavka reserve even as 33 Army moved into its assault positions.


(33A moving into position)

Finally, after 3 months of sustained fighting 52 and 55 Armies captured Klin.

The opening attack by 52 Army was beaten off with heavy Soviet losses but revealed weaknesses in the German defensive lines. Waves of Soviet bombers then hit both the German front line units and suspected reserve formations.

Finally, 95,000 men, representing some of the best units in the Red Army, and backed by a third wave of VVS airstrikes, took the small town. The Germans lost heavily as they hastily had to pull back to avoid encirclement.




(Elements of 55 Army enter Klin)



Overall losses matched the intensity of the fighting. Both sides lost around 36,000 men, but the Germans paid a heavy price in tanks, losing 122 to only 36 Soviet vehicles lost. In the air, the position was reversed as the VVS paid for its support for Red Army operations, especially in the fighting around Klin. 44 Axis planes were reported as destroyed but the Soviets lost 255.

Overall, the Soviet forces slowly increased, especially as the various reserve formations took on fresh manpower and started to build up their stock of heavy weapons. The Red Army grew by 100,000 men, 250 tanks and 2,000 artillery.



Comments and Notes

Finally I managed my very first Gds unit, unfortunately it won't appear on the map. Malinovski and Tolbukhin are now eligible for Front commands. This also shows most of the infantry and cavalry formations that I hope to manage to convert to Guards before the winter fighting is over.





[1] – I may regret this, as its pretty early in the year to give up space but I lack the manpower and armament points to properly fill out these formations so they remain very weak (mostly 1 CV). My logic is this is one sector where even in Feb, and definitely in March, I could easily lose the equivalent of an army in a small pocket.

Can you print a copy of the OOB page? I'm curious about SigUp's numbers and just what amount of force he has at the moment. I saw that his counterattacks cost you more men, but he lost more tanks.

His tank losses are insignificant. With every attack he gains back morale. Also, looking at the earlier OOB numbers I fear that SigUp did not put any of his troops on refit. He will probably do this at the end of February and his numbers will increase dramatically come March. I would watch out for a nasty March offensive.

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Can you print a copy of the OOB page? I'm curious about SigUp's numbers and just what amount of force he has at the moment. I saw that his counterattacks cost you more men, but he lost more tanks.

Shown below for T32 (ie end Jan and current turn), plus some idea of how its varied over the Winter, the figures are all for the end of the Soviet turn (ie just before I ran the end turn routine). I suspect he's still suffering for winter attrition (hence the overall relatively even manpower loss) but of course a lot of his losses will return. As you can see, his German manpower has gone up over the last couple of turns.

ORIGINAL: Oshawott

His tank losses are insignificant. With every attack he gains back morale. Also, looking at the earlier OOB numbers I fear that SigUp did not put any of his troops on refit. He will probably do this at the end of February and his numbers will increase dramatically come March. I would watch out for a nasty March offensive.

That is very much my suspicion, its one reason why I am tucking my more effective units back into local or strategic reserves and trying to work out where to set up my front lines. Around Moscow I don't have much choice, but to the south, I don't want to hand over too many easy pockets. Ideally I'm looking for a front line that will take some breaking and a formation in the rear of each sector that will give me a good chance to hit any Panzer encirclement hard.

This is the logic to pulling out the Don bend, neither of the fronts on that sector really have the type of forces capable of much of a counterstroke.

12-18 February 1942: "Impossible to feign"

By mid-February the bulk of the long front from Kaluga to Rostov was quiet. From Kaluga to Kharkov, the various Soviet formations re-organised to consolidate their gains and to build up local and operational reserves. To the rear, Stavka was collecting fresh rifle divisions and armoured formations with a view to creating a strategic reserve. East of Rostov, Trans-Caucasus Front dug in on the line of the Don with reserves stretching back to Stalingrad. To the south, Caucasus Front, having lost control of the south bank of the Don, fell back to guard key cities and protect the main passes across the Caucasus.

However, north of Moscow, Kalinin, Moscow and North-Western Fronts continued their operations designed to drive the Germans back behind the Larna and to relieve the immediate threat to Moscow.



North of Vyshny Volochek, 3 and 4 Shock Armies continued to make limited gains as they tried to recapture the rail junctions of Kaboa and Bologoe [1].



However, it was around Pologoe and Kalinin that the main Soviet offensive was launched. Kalinin was encircled as 33 Army forced the Tveritsa river and elements of 22 Army managed to cut their line of retreat.



To the south, 52 and 55 Armies hit elements of 40 Panzer and 42 Infantry Corps and broke through to reach the Larna. Taking advantage of the chaos of the German retreat, Soviet armour cut deep into their rear, disrupting their communications and supply networks.




(Hasty German retreat over the Larna)

At the same time, Kalinin Front's 21 Army, supported by elements of 29 Army struck deep into the breach opened around Istra. Elements of 56 Panzer and 23 Infantry Corps were driven out of their hastily constructed positions guarding the last main road to the German forces at Pologoe.




(T-34s supporting 21 Army)

Again, Soviet armour was able to exploit the gaps torn in the German front and the powerful German force at Pologoe was cut off.

Determined to take advantage, Stavka ordered 30, 48 and elements of 29 Army to try to capture the town. Preceeded by multiple air-raids, the Soviet attack was badly co-ordinated. Despite having encircled the town, and with more than 100,000 men committed, the inexperienced units drawn from the Moscow reserve failed, suffering over 4,000 losses [2].



OOB

Although the fighting was restricted to a narrow sector of the front, both sides suffered heavy losses. The Germans suffered badly having been forced back on a number of critical sectors losing 27,000 men and over 100 tanks. Soviet losses were 15,000 men and 32 tanks.



[1] – essentially to gain victories and inflict losses, no real expectation of making significant gains
[2] – never likely to have succeeded but worth a try as it would have given me my main objectives on this sector.

Loki, regarding the encirclements at Kalinin and Povarovo, did you actually move unit forward to make a pocket?  And if so, do you expect it to hold?  But this looks like a win for you either way.  If he stays in those cities you will (probably?) trap some divisions and destroy them; if he pulls back you recover Kalinin and Povarovo which are your main objectives in that area.

You still have two more turns in February; it will be interesting to see what you can make of them.

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Loki, regarding the encirclements at Kalinin and Povarovo, did you actually move unit forward to make a pocket?  And if so, do you expect it to hold?  But this looks like a win for you either way.  If he stays in those cities you will (probably?) trap some divisions and destroy them; if he pulls back you recover Kalinin and Povarovo which are your main objectives in that area.

You still have two more turns in February; it will be interesting to see what you can make of them.

Yes, they are in pockets, but each in one hex is only held by a single tank brigade so he'll open them up. From recon, I don't think there is much of a reserve on that sector and I've dumped a load of problems on him (which is probably my gain for all this constant pressure, even my defeats cost the Germans in this period). 5 divisions are in pockets (which he can open), there are 3 hexes where even with no forts I have defensive CVS of 15-20, so he'll struggle to regain his original line and I've lobbed several tank brigades actually behind his remaining defense line.

So all sortable, but each bit of firefighting will cost him MPs. My guess is he can clamp down on my incursion around Kalinin but may have to abandon Povalovo, as he is risking another encirclement and having some key divisions routed (which was the point of my final gamble attack, if that had paid off, they would have routed) - I don't think I can build the sort of encirclement that would get me actual surrenders.

I think I now have a chance to gain my original objective of the Larna by the end of the month. I may lose some space in March (depends where or if he attacks) but it all helps shore up Moscow for the summer. To get back to where he was at the start of December (ie the MV Canal) he'll need to clear four defensive belts and I can pull the better armies of NW Front out of the line as a local reserve, as I've taken about 8 hexes off the overall front line on this sector.

It's lovely how much important is every hex up to 5 hexes from Moscow. One can write an entire post about battles that rage to take or retake a single one of them. On the other hand tens (hundreds?) of hexes in other areas are not worth sparing even one sentence when they change hands.

ORIGINAL: morvael

It's lovely how much important is every hex up to 5 hexes from Moscow. One can write an entire post about battles that rage to take or retake a single one of them. On the other hand tens (hundreds?) of hexes in other areas are not worth sparing even one sentence when they change hands.

agree, this phase has been very claustrophobic in that the rest of the map scarcely matters but I fear I can see the pattern of hexes between the Moskva-Volga Canal and the Larna in my sleep given the repeated nature of these battles.

What is also frustrating is that I lost all that sector in one week after my mistake at Rzhev, so its taken me 3 months to (maybe) regain what was taken without any significant defense in the first place.

Also everywhere else along the front I don't especially care where the first defense line is. I've tried to anchor it on rivers and the major ones are now very well defended, but if SigUp attacks in force then my front line will be overrun and I'll fall back. If I can, I really need to hold Moscow (for the VPs as much as anything else), if I can't then I need to bog him down for the entire Summer-Autumn in taking it.

ORIGINAL: loki100
What is also frustrating is that I lost all that sector in one week after my mistake at Rzhev, so its taken me 3 months to (maybe) regain what was taken without any significant defense in the first place.

Small errors, big conséquences....

Spring will be very interesting!

ORIGINAL: STEF78

ORIGINAL: loki100
What is also frustrating is that I lost all that sector in one week after my mistake at Rzhev, so its taken me 3 months to (maybe) regain what was taken without any significant defense in the first place.

Small errors, big conséquences....

Spring will be very interesting!

aye, its interesting to see how the results of a clear mistake can escalate - I even knew the turn before where it would have been obvious for the attack to fall but I was too keen on my level 3 forts around Rzhev to do the sensible thing.

As to spring, I can only hope I've done enough damage, first to make SigUp cautious about what he does in March and then limit him to a single major offensive in the summer. I can cope (I hope) around Moscow by sheer volume of formations, multiple lines of entrenchments and enough strong units to hit back hard. In the south, if he goes there, by essentially trading off space for time, hoping he outruns his logistics or starts to expose the axis-allied units for me to hit (& train up the Tank Corps).

T36: 19 February – 26 February 1942: 'It was dark - before'

The German response to the Soviet gains around Kalinin – Povarovo was a predictable series of counterattacks as they shifted their mobile reserves to try and contain the Soviet breakthroughs. Communications to both sets of encircled units were restored, but both positions were still threatened by substantial Soviet forces.



Determined to secure Moscow's northern flank, Stavka ordered a renewal of the offensive.

Malinovski's 33 Army again broke the German lines linking Kalinin and Torzhok as elements of 22 Army again cut across the German communication lines.

To the south, 55 Army, supported by elements of 52 Army restored its positions on the Larna, inflicting heavy losses on 40 Panzer Corp's 2nd Panzer Division. However, the main blow fell on Povarovo itself. This time there was no repeat of the ill-prepared attack from the previous week. Led by North Western Front's elite 52 Army and supported by 3 armies from the Moscow Reserve and Kalinin Front's 31 Army, over 160,000 men and 2,200 guns attacked the encircled Germans.



This time, their nerve failed, and after 2 days of vicious fighting, the Germans opted to try and fight their way out of the Soviet trap.


(Soviet units celebrate retaking Povarovo)

With Soviet armour and ski units across their retreat path, and pressed closely by the main attacking formations, the German breakout came close to being a rout, their situation worsened by the VVS' complete mastery of the skies.


(Soviet ambush across the German line of retreat from Povarovo)

In the end the Germans lost, or destroyed 100 guns and 12 of their Stug IIIs. In addtion they lost over 6,000 men. Soviet losses were heavy, and all the armies involved were forced to refit and recover rather than persue the broken enemy.

At the same time, to the north of Vorozny Volochek, 3 and 4 Shock Armies continued to carve open a larger gap in the German defenses, almost reaching the outskirts of Kabozha.



Soviet intelligence reports indicated that the bulk of the German Panzer reserves around Moscow had been sent to contain the Soviet offensive on the Larna. As a result, both Kalinin and Western Fronts started to shift from the defensive posture they had recently adopted to take advantage and renew the wider offensive to the west of Moscow.

Despite the restricted nature of the fighting, both sides took heavy losses as the sequence of attack and counterattack escalated. Both sides lost around 25,000 men and the Germans lost 50 tanks. However, the Soviet tactic of overextending their tank brigades to disrupt the German lines meant they lost 115.

Stavka rewarded Govorov for taking Povarovo and 34 Army's 1st Cavalry Corps was given Guards status in recognition of its earlier victories around Orel.



OOB



Overall, the Red Army only grew by 70,000 men, but finally there were indications that Soviet industry was recovering from the losses and chaos of 1941. For the first time, since September 1941, Stavka received reports that a small surplus of armaments had been built up.

T37: 26 February – 4 March 1942: How Have I Peace

By the end of February, it was clear that the Axis forces had held Soviet winter offensive. The fighting became fragmented as both sides sought minor advantages. To the north of Vyshny Volochek, 3 and 4 Shock Armies continued to make gains. In the Ukraine, SW Front launched a series of localised attacks between Kursk and Orel, primarily to gather reconnaisance on the deployment of the German mobile reserves.



North of Moscow, the final battles of the Povarovo offensive occured. The main action saw Kalinin Front's 21 Army make gains to the east of Istra, mainly to give elements of the Moscow Military District time to dig in around Povarovo. Near Kalinin, 33 Army again made inroads but this time the Soviets were unable to cut the German communications.



In the air, the deployment of the bulk of the lend-lease P-40s to the Moscow sector paid off as the German attempts to gather information on Soviet redeployments led to heavy losses among their recon planes.


[1]

The map of the front lines, from the Arctic to the lower Don showed painfully little movement for the combined losses of 180,000 killed and 1.3 million disabled on both sides. In addition, 2,200 tanks had been reported destroyed.



This gives an overview of progress in the Winter Offensive and key changes to OOB (both sides), losses and the relative recovery of my industrial base. I can only lose 34 more VP so I don't have much room to fall back – hence the heavy concentration of both front line and reserve formations around Moscow.

The following tables show the losses in a bit more detail and may help place things in context.




I'm not too sure how to interpret either of those data sets. German armoured losses are mostly various Pzr III (not surprising as it should be the backbone of their tank force at this stage). I've seen Stef78 argue that losses of 1941 don't matter for 1942, if so I doubt I have seriously dented the German armoured forces. The loss, in total, of over 5,000 infantry style squads I think will hurt more and may mean the German infantry are less able to conduct an attritional battle for Moscow.

For the Soviet losses, its pretty clear the bulk of my tank losses were either in obsolete models or the light tanks. Losses of the medium tanks I will need for 1942 and the KV1s are minimal. This fits more general observation as its in terms of light tanks that my tank brigades and cavalry corps are short.

The loss of so many cavalry squads hurts in terms of replacing them (they cost a lot in armaments), but then they have been my only semi mobile asset all winter.




Again, not too sure how to interpret that. The bulk of my air losses are in series that are obsolete, or will be quite soon into 1942. Although I've lost a lot of Yaks/P-40s, its something I can easily absorb as with the losses of Il-2s and Pe-2s.

I've pushed the VVS hard to support my attacks, so overall the losses reflect my reliance on it.

For the Germans, its clear the Ju-87s have hidden in Germany for the winter. I'm not sure what is easy to replace but I seem to have done some steady damage to both the level bombers and the transport aircraft.

The final table shows all the lost units. For my side, its a bit misleading as it conflates disbands with destroyed but its pretty grim. All I've managed to destroy is 2 FZ and 1 SP gun battery.



Looking Forward

Main issue now is what SigUp will do in March. He can attack, but I think (from my probing attacks in the Ukraine) that the bulk of his armoured reserves are now north of Moscow. I think his infantry needs a break so taking on the multiple belts of 16-28 defensive CV stacks that ring Moscow will cost him a lot of tanks.

If he hits at SW Front, southwards, my lines are more vulnerable.

As to the main defensive phase of 1942, I have, basically 4 different defensive models.

In the far north, if he attacks, he can have what he wants.
At Moscow, the main defense is the depth of forts and the existence of 3 reserve armies. I can't stop him, at least not at first, but its going to be a slow grind to and beyond Moscow. I have the makings of about 4 Gds Rifle Corps, and these can be thrown into the Moscow battles if I need to.
From Kaluga-Voronezh, I have a less impressive first line, but behind this are 5 armies with a lot of combat power (2 shock and 3 made up essentially of cavalry corps. This means I can lash back at any exposed attackers.
South, I'm weak, have some depth on the direct road to Stalingrad and have covered the key cities in the Caucasus. Here I'll be relying on logistics as much as combat power.

My weakness is the lack of Gds. With some conversion of paratroop brigades, I can generate 4 Gds rifle corps. These can either help in a defensive battle for Moscow or give me a decent amount of combat power somewhere. I do have a lot of units that are on the verge of converting and hope that in a defensive/counterattack battle I can do a better job at managing this than when on the offensive.

From my experience in this phase of the war, the lower logistical values are working pretty much as we originally hoped.

I have the makings of a 4 Tank Armies and a combined arms army based around Tank and Cavalry Corps. That will help with hitting exposed spots, especially if SigUp goes for Stalingrad et al.


[1] – I'm not sure why, but I do seem to have shot down a lot of these.

Very interesting summary of the winter operations, thanks very much. Were you just not able to hit many Hungarian or Rumanian units? Did SigUp manage to shield those from you somehow? From other AARs I've read it seems that the Axis allies are a popular winter target for the Red Army.

Big question is if the brutal winter fighting was enough to give you the breathing space you need around Moscow. I don't think he can advance too far toward Moscow during the snow turns of March, and the spring mud season lasts a long time -- hopefully, long enough for you to have really good forts in and near Moscow in all directions.

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Very interesting summary of the winter operations, thanks very much. Were you just not able to hit many Hungarian or Rumanian units? Did SigUp manage to shield those from you somehow? From other AARs I've read it seems that the Axis allies are a popular winter target for the Red Army.

I think he made a conscious decision not to trust them on their own after dark. Right at the start I hit his Rumanians around Rostov and inflicted very heavy losses but also lost one crucial battle. After that I tended not to find them on their own but always stacked with German units. I also hit some Hungarian units in my attacks around Kursk.

The real problem was my decision to concentrate heavily on the Kalinin-Orel sector. Once I'd done this, I really lacked the strength in the South to do much. I tried to put in a sustained effort with SW Front but all that happened was they got exhausted moving across the snow covered Steppe and badly handled by a counterattack. I think, given other constraints, I made the right choice to then just sit back and do some spoiling attacks.

Since we started more or less even, I felt I had one big choice. I could, as I did, operate the cavalry heavy Bryansk Front with Leningrad Front. The advantage to this was to relieve the pressure on Tula and that the German 4 Army on that sector had already been hit quite hard in my November counterattacks.

I'm actually hoping they will become more visible in 1942. In part to date, its suited me to keep the front as short as possible, I now have enough units to allow it to become longer (ie if he makes an incursion not abandon the flanks immediately), if I'm lucky that will start to put the Hungarians et al at risk, especially as by May 42 I'll have the beginnings of a mobile army. Feasting on hapless allied units seems a good way to build morale and experience for the nascent Tank Corps.

The alternative would have been to operate Bryansk with SW Front. This would have put more pressure in the Kursk-Kharkov sector, where there were definitely Hungarians. I think I would have got more wins (=Gds/morale) and taken more ground (= a bit of so what) had I done this.

But that leads to your second question ...

ORIGINAL: jwolf
Big question is if the brutal winter fighting was enough to give you the breathing space you need around Moscow. I don't think he can advance too far toward Moscow during the snow turns of March, and the spring mud season lasts a long time -- hopefully, long enough for you to have really good forts in and near Moscow in all directions.

I think so. North of Moscow I have taken 3 hexes from my start line on the M-V canal. Sounds pathetic but I think it means it will take two major German offensives just to breach the M-V and that relieves some of my fears of Moscow being encircled. To the South of Moscow, again I've only taken 2-3 hexes but its a better front line. Obviously that is still good tank country, so my suspicion is if SigUP goes for Moscow he'll have to put his main weight there. But I've got the space now to set up as a 1942 version of Kursk. Again, I have no doubt he can push me back to the Oka and Ryazan over 2-3 operations but it will be intense fighting.

On the direct road west, all I've done is to destroy his old front line. But that means if he moves into contact his units are very vulnerable to counterattacks. I only have 3 hexes of depth, but I can contest each defensive line over multiple turns.

What I am relying on is the random weather giving a lot of mud well into June around Moscow (which I've seen quite often vs the AI), by that stage I'll have a smattering of rifle corps, so can either build small bastions or have the means to deliver some bruising counterattacks.

So, I'm not confident. I think if he really wants Moscow he can take it. But I think I've achieved my core goal of ensuring that it would be his major project for the Summer-Autumn of 1942 and that I have a good chance to hold onto Ivanovo-Vladimir. At best I can make him concentrate so much, that I can start minor offensives of my own on the northern and southern flanks.

As to March, I'm in two minds. I could do with a break, to let some units recover and carry on getting things set up for summer. But if he does attack, it could grind his infantry down more, he'll be moving in snow (so fatigue) and it might hurt him more in the longer term than making some initial inroads into my defensive positions. Also at the moment, he's pretty free to put his Panzers anywhere for the Spring/Summer. If he grinds out a salient, in turn he starts to lock his units in.