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ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

Don't know about AA on ships, but late in the war the USA had a radar controlled 90mm AA system (Type 584 with M-9 director) that unless the aircraft entered the radar envelope doing radical maneuvers, it was essentially 100% kill rate on propeller driven aircraft.

I don't know the code (I say for about the 100th time here), but I suspect that the whole, general topic of radar, and especially radar evolution across the war years, is a weakness in the code models. The DB is generally driven, for gun results of all types, by the gun itself--range, penetration, etc. These values are pretty hard-coded I think. If the ammo changes in mid-war to add proximity fuses I wish someone would explain to me how that works.

But AA success in RL was not all, or even mostly, about the guns or crew training, it was about C&C, and I don't see how a DB-driven game can really model that well across the upgrade curves in a game this long. Harpoon can do it because the hardware and electronics are static from start of the scenario to the end. But the Allies' electronics in 1941 vs. 1945 are like a VW Beetle becoming a Porsche.

There may be ways to kludge the results, but that might break something else. Unless we ever have a dynamic DB, with values swapping in at key historical dates, I think we're sort of stuck.

Maybe, but it seems Allied AA is underpowered from the git-go... trying out the game with the new patch just now, running the Pearl Harbor attack on 7 Dec turn 5 times in a row, the USN shot down 2-5 IJN attacking aircraft (fog of war off average 4), losing 2-5 BBs on that turn (average 4, and probably more would sink in the following turns)... maybe this is a glitch just on turn 1, but from the remarks made here and elsewhere, it seems the whole Allied flak power is problematic.

IRL, the IJN lost 29 aircraft in the attack (from all causes, but mostly from flak). The average was less than 1/6 this amount, and never reached 20% in the "best case" effort. The USN permanently lost 2 BBs, so the relative difference is about 12x in the 5 instances run (1/6 as many aircraft downed, vs. twice as many BBs sunk - and this doesn't count the other ships lost which were also much greater).

Isn't the DBB mod dealing with the ammo issue for Allied ship flak?

Map below shows the planned route of the Allied invasion armada and the location of the KB, which is retiring to Hong Kong (I think) to replenish. Some points:

1) Miller has suspected the Vietnam is the target and that was bolstered by Allied recon over the past two days. He's probably already identified Hainan Island as a possible target. Tomorrow, new Allied recon of bases there and on mainland China will increase his suspicions (not to mention the location of the Allied ships). However, I'll try to maintain some uncertainty by bombing Saigon and Camranh Bay.

2) I think D-Day will take place in three to five days. If it's the former, I'll head strait for the beach. If it's five days, I may feint a bit toward the Vietnam coast. But I'll try to get to the beach as quickly as possible.

3) Recon of Samah beginning this turn should indicate how strongly it is held. If the garrison appears stout, I'll have to modify plans on the fly. But I can't believe it would be strongly defended.

4) By now, Miller should be (a) freaking out over an invasion this far behind his lines and (b) possibly licking his chops at a chance to strike.

5) He's loaded his airfield at Saigon and has shifted aircraft to more northern bases including Samah, Hanoi, and others. This shift should continue tomorrow (hence the need to hasten to the beachhead).

6) Patrol aircraft sighted the KB making for Hong Kong. It should take him a few days to replenish torpedoes, etc, but when he does the KB poses a real threat since torpedo stores on my carriers are depleted. But his pilots ought to be very low experience.

7) The Allies managed to transfer a goodly number of fighter to the carriers. Many of the fleet carriers now hold about 75 aircraft. Since my carrier aircraft rested over the past two-day turn, they are in much better shape.

8) Will Japanese LBA sortie in numbers tomorrow?

9) Go, Boys, go!

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Isn't the DBB mod dealing with the ammo issue for Allied ship flak?

Not familiar with it... is it just for ammo, or does it deal with the whole issue of anemic flak for the Allies??

i did see that Nikmod for Guadalcanal has decreased IJN flak (effectiveness?) by 75%.

Maybe a bad idea (what? me?), but perhaps you can spare 6-8 cruisers and destroyers to go KB hunting now (you have a fix and a track on him in the picture) and into Hong Kong while you unload? Once he sees that you're going into China, HK isn't going to be the garden spot to refit he's grown to know and love. Attacking him might buy you a cruicial day, or even two.

Edit: I just re-looked at the inserted scan. You're too far away to catch him en route. Might still be worth taking the fight to him, and delaying his re-load.

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Isn't the DBB mod dealing with the ammo issue for Allied ship flak?

Not familiar with it... is it just for ammo, or does it deal with the whole issue of anemic flak for the Allies??

i did see that Nikmod for Guadalcanal has decreased IJN flak (effectiveness?) by 75%.

Da Big Babes (or Babies, or whatever).

A bit late for another monday morning quarterback comment of "Go and get him"  (Wasnt it the Kuriles when we last pushed you into a meatgrinder?)

I think Grant after Belmont sizes up your position.

ORIGINAL: JeffK

I think Grant after Belmont sizes up your position.

Drunk?

Yep, give me more drunken generals if they will fight like Grant

To paraphrase Abe.

Its odd that the South denegrate Grant and Sherman consistantly, yet few of their Generals could claim victory over them.

I was thinking more of his realising that while he was fearful of the Confederates, they were just as fearful of the Union forces, and both ran away.

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Isn't the DBB mod dealing with the ammo issue for Allied ship flak?

Not familiar with it... is it just for ammo, or does it deal with the whole issue of anemic flak for the Allies??

i did see that Nikmod for Guadalcanal has decreased IJN flak (effectiveness?) by 75%.

Da Big Babes (or Babies, or whatever).

Ah, thanks for the lead!! [&o]

This seems promising, but right now it is apparently devoted to correcting OOB/map issues, not gameplay issues... still, it took about 4 years for CHS to make WITP something that more or less approached reality (CHS-NikMod which still had many problems), so, i'll keep hoping...

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Its odd that the South denegrate Grant and Sherman consistantly, yet few of their Generals could claim victory over them.

I am one of those atypical Southerners who really likes Sherman; and that is atypical because down this way he is still reviled. I just finished writing an article in which I twice quoted Sherman, who was quite pointed and whitty in his observations about war, politics, and journalists.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Its odd that the South denegrate Grant and Sherman consistantly, yet few of their Generals could claim victory over them.

I am one of those atypical Southerners who really likes Sherman; and that is atypical because down this way he is still reviled. I just finished writing an article in which I twice quoted Sherman, who was quite pointed and whitty in his observations about war, politics, and journalists.

Well, I would say neither Grant nor Sherman were gentlemen generals, and that makes it a little hard to "like" them. In fact, if I read some of the letters and statements particularly by Sherman (for example the infamous letter published before his early 1864 return to Chattanooga from his excursion from Vicksburg to Meridian), I somehow can't but get the impression that he was not particularly bright, to say the least. Grant makes a much more intelligent impression in history, but also he is more of a practical person (blue collar you'd probably say today) than the type of highly educated and well-raised thinker that the southern gentlemen generals typically represented.

10/6/44 and 10/7/44
 
Miller's Summary of the Situation:  "Well if you were going to land in Thailand or Vietnam I would have expected your troops to have been going ashore this turn......"
 
Allied Invasion Armada:  Continues north without incident - no attacks by hostile aircraft.  I haven't seen the turn file yet, so I'm not quite sure how far the armada is from the beachhead.  I think some of the ships could reach the beach at the end of the second day of the next turn, but I'll have to weigh between doing that or keeping the ships together and shooting for a landing on the morning of the third day.
 
Recon:  My recon planes in Indochina targets the Hainan Island bases and vicinity, but since I don't have the file yet I'm not sure what they found.  I'll update this cricitial matter as soon as possible.  Suffice to say that indications of a well-prepared enemy will force me to reconsider; but I think it more likely that Samah will be relatively lightly defended.
 
Airfield Suppression:  Allied 4EB really clobbered the airfield at Haiphong.  This is a good sign, becuase had Miller been developing a line of thought "Hainan Island," I think this field would have been well protected.  Instead, there wasn't any CAP and I think the field is shut down.  This will permit the Allies to shift focus to another field (perhaps Canton) tomorrow.  Most of the other Vietnam fields within range (Hanoi, Vinh, etc) are level one, so they aren't a concern.
 
Japanese ships:  A sub reported BB Musashi and other ships (probably the KB) near Foochow, meaning Miller didn't send them to Hong Kong to replenish.  This is another good sign because it probably means his big ships can't intervene on D-Day.
 
Playing the Hunch:  I am still very worried about a massive kamikazee attack (ala Bullwinkle's experience), but all factors continue to point to the Allies achieving strategic surprise. 

ORIGINAL: janh

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Its odd that the South denegrate Grant and Sherman consistantly, yet few of their Generals could claim victory over them.

I am one of those atypical Southerners who really likes Sherman; and that is atypical because down this way he is still reviled. I just finished writing an article in which I twice quoted Sherman, who was quite pointed and whitty in his observations about war, politics, and journalists.

Well, I would say neither Grant nor Sherman were gentlemen generals, and that makes it a little hard to "like" them. In fact, if I read some of the letters and statements particularly by Sherman (for example the infamous letter published before his early 1864 return to Chattanooga from his excursion from Vicksburg to Meridian), I somehow can't but get the impression that he was not particularly bright, to say the least. Grant makes a much more intelligent impression in history, but also he is more of a practical person (blue collar you'd probably say today) than the type of highly educated and well-raised thinker that the southern gentlemen generals typically represented.

I don't get that feeling at all. My reading of Sherman's correspondence and reports leads me to believe that he was smart, witty, and a devoted father. I also think he may have had the best grasp of what war meant and what was needed to win.

Here we go, gents! See map below. Hainan Island looks fairly open (Samah has four units 18.5k strong; Kiungshan just one unit less than 1k strong); the Allied armada is close enough to the beachheads that I've ordered them to proceed with the invasion - Samah transports at flank speed could begin arriving on second day; Kiungshan to follow carriers and then swing around the island to the beach (probably won't arrive next turn); carriers, combat ships, supply ships, and transports carrying Swatow/Amoy-prepped troops to take station two hexes east of Samah.

It appears that Haiphong airfield (level six) was shut down. Allied 4EB to therefore concentrate on Canton and Hong Kong with one or two squadrons to hit Samah and one to hit Haiphong.

Undamaged Japanese carriers believe to have retired to Japan; also sighted large CVE force way up in the Gulf of Siam (where Miller sent them to seek refuge following the battle). I don't expect the KB to appear (distance and need to replenish should keep them away).

Allied carrier strike aircraft limited to range of four hexes so that they don't waste "energy" chasing small, coastal ships. Carrier fighters set to range of four (for same reason) and all squadrons at 60% or 70% CAP.

If Hainan Island goes will the Allies can then pounce quickly on Swatow and Amoy if those bases are lightly garrisoned.

The next four days will go a long way toward determing the remainder of the war.

Go, boys, go!

10/8/44 and 10/9/44

D-Day for Operation Seven Days goes very well, though there are tough decisions to make ahead. A summary:

1. No appearance by Japanese combat ships, carriers or LBA. That is an indication of the extent of strategic surprise achieved.

2. 77th Division begins landing at Samah on the 8th, with additional troops landing on the 9th. They find the Japanese with a mixed brigade, a raiding regiment, and the advance echelon of 112th Division being brought in by air. Thgs far the Allies have 650 AV ashore facing 413 AV. This is a forested hex and I expect to find high forts, so this will be a pretty tough nut to crack.

3. Elements of 81st Division and other troops begin landing at Kiungshan on the 9th. Whatever Japanese unit is there is so weak that it didn't even try a counter-invasion barrage. Unless I'm overlooking something, the Allies will take this base tomorrow.

4. Allied LBA sortied somewhat effectively against Hong Kong, but failed to fly vs. Canton. Each day that goes by now will be another that Miller has to reconfigure his forces, so time is of the essence.

5. With regard to Hainan Island, I need to decide whether to land additional troops at Kiungshan (once taken) to reinforce the drive on Samah.

6. Should I proceed to invade Swatow, on the China coast, or should I scrap that and devote most troops to the capture of Hainan Island and a strong landing at Kwangchoan? I may lean this way as it gives the Allies a more consolidated position and a better chance to coordinate with the British and Allied troops in Indochina. But first I want to see the turn file to see if recon showed anything favorable about Swatow and Amoy.

Reinforce success I'd think. Land where they're weak to be sure. You need an airbase.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't get that feeling at all. My reading of Sherman's correspondence and reports leads me to believe that he was smart, witty, and a devoted father. I also think he may have had the best grasp of what war meant and what was needed to win.

I agree with you. Sherman had depresion issues, but he was very intelligent. Without those issues, and if things political had gone another way, I think Sherman would have made a far better president than Grant. My feelings about Grant are always collored by his presidency, rather than his generalship. He was wholly unsuited for the job, was terrible at it (rivaling Buchanan and GWB for the title of worst president), and it left a sad coda to what should have been a triumphant later life.

The image of him broke, sititng on his front porch, his throat being eaten away by cancer, in constant agony, trying desperately to finish his memoirs before he died (he finished five days before his death) so his widow might have a living, is an American tragedy. The type they don't teach schoolchildren.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Playing the Hunch:  I am still very worried about a massive kamikazee attack (ala Bullwinkle's experience), but all factors continue to point to the Allies achieving strategic surprise. 

Note that I was just south of the HI, in the zone for a dozen very large, well-supplied bases whose squadrons still had their original, trained pilots. In your fleet's location I think he could mount a hurtin' on you (Hong Kong, Canton, Formosa w/4E Kamis), but I wonder if he's invested the aviation support along the China coast that would take? Given the intensity of his aviation preps in the PI I wonder if he has enough aviation support to have lef tit sitting unused in the southern China theater.

You'll soon know.

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

The image of him broke, sititng on his front porch, his throat being eaten away by cancer, in constant agony, trying desperately to finish his memoirs before he died (he finished five days before his death) so his widow might have a living, is an American tragedy. The type they don't teach schoolchildren.

In a weird way though, that was the genius of his generalship though. Grant (and sherman) was mentally tough in ways that most of his contemporaries were not. Bad things happened to Grant. He lost his share of battles. He got outmaneuvered. His operations didn't always pan out.

Thing is, Grant kept coming.