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ORIGINAL: obvert

Ok. This just blew my mind. Not sure what to make of it and if there is anything to it or not.

It doesn't seem plausible in any of the other major early centers of the disease; Wuhan, but especially Italy, as the population shouldn't support this theory. On the other hand there are so many reported asymptomatic cases and the Diamond Princess is still a conundrum. Thoughts?

I'll post some details since there is a paywall.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd ... pe=blocked

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.

The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta. 

Not enough there for me to grab onto, obvert. Sorry.

I would like to know more about why so many politicos are grabbing onto the "40-70% of us will get this disease" bilge in general. There's ZERO evidence to suggest such an extraordinary outcome based on real-life global data. South Korea-clearly on the mend side of their experience has <6500 cases? Let's say only 10% of the cases were actually tested / reported-then that's 65,000 cases? In a country of 51.7MM? That's 0.125%. China? Assuming the same (1/10 cases reported/tested) logic with China? 850,000 cases: 0.006%. Japan? Another rounding error. Either they're grasping at the straws of really poor models or they're ignoring reality in countries that are clearly recovering from this issue.

When I see a model with exorbitant assumptions or characterizations that don't pass the smell test, I have to hold them in quarantine until further real-world confirmation comes around. Most times, the models fail because of GIGO. You can model anything you want to get any outcome you think you'd like if you futz around with / bias the input variables accordingly.

On a semi-related note: One of my favorite articles of all time on foodborne disease was published in a poultry trade magazine in the mid-late 1990s. Entitled "Food poisoning's phony figures", it poked abundant holes in the USDA/FDA computer models for how widespread certain foodborne diseases were compared to historical trends, facts on the ground and comparatives to gold standard testing. USDA/FDA models routinely overstated morbidity and mortality caused by bacterial contaminants in the food chain, throwing up guesses as to how many cases really existed.

For those of you (Makeelearn-are you listening?) whose Google-Fu is strong, you would be my hero forevermore if you could find the article I mention above.

Of course, I can't find a link to the story now, but this morning North Carolina decided to scale back on the COVID-19 testing they are doing. They want to limit testing to high risk groups, including healthcare workers.

Frankly, I agree with the decision, as wide scale testing of the public at this point won't provide nearly the benefit it could have if we were still able to focus on containment of the outbreak. Use the resources available where they can do the most good.

One impact of this decision, significant impact if it's echoed in many other states, will be an artificial drop in the numbers of new confirmed cases. Just another variable that makes me want to lend more weight to the number of deaths over the number of confirmed cases, despite the death numbers also having their limitations.

??????????

May/June 1998 issue of Columbia Journalism Review “Factoid Watch: Food poisoning's phony figures".

By Dan Wilson

ORIGINAL: witpqs
The trouble with anti-body testing (AFAIK) is that it does not confirm when a person was infected or developed the anti-bodies, so by the time that could be done it still might do nothing to confirm this theory.

A single serologic antibody survey is like a snapshot: it tells you what was happening at the time the blood was drawn. For a time study, one can perform paired samples: acute and convalescent serologic surveys. Check antibodies at time 0 and time 0+ down the line.

I think we can assume that there was no seroconversion to COVID-19 in GB prior to September 2019. So you can use some stored public serum for your t=0 snapshot. Then compare to whenever (e.g., now) you want your next snapshot.

If the authors of that theory are serious, then they need to provide some baseline evidence of seroconversion in the UK populace prior to, or in January 2020. Why don't they get some National Health / blood bank stored serum from there to buttress their computer model? My jaundiced worldview says its because they're some computer modeling wankers that are out of touch with reality, but I could be wrong.

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

??????????

May/June 1998 issue of Columbia Journalism Review “Factoid Watch: Food poisoning's phony figures".

By Dan Wilson

Can you pull that?

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

??????????

May/June 1998 issue of Columbia Journalism Review “Factoid Watch: Food poisoning's phony figures".

By Dan Wilson

Can you pull that?

So far only from here and I have no "Sign In"


https://go.gale.com/ps/anonymous?id=GAL ... =AONE&sw=w

Dan Wilson
Retired reporter

https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-wilson-17531614

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

Of course, I can't find a link to the story now, but this morning North Carolina decided to scale back on the COVID-19 testing they are doing. They want to limit testing to high risk groups, including healthcare workers.

Frankly, I agree with the decision, as wide scale testing of the public at this point won't provide nearly the benefit it could have if we were still able to focus on containment of the outbreak. Use the resources available where they can do the most good.

One impact of this decision, significant impact if it's echoed in many other states, will be an artificial drop in the numbers of new confirmed cases. Just another variable that makes me want to lend more weight to the number of deaths over the number of confirmed cases, despite the death numbers also having their limitations.

I heard last night from an esteemed pediatrician colleague in SoCal. In addition to lamenting the availability of PPE, he stated, "10% of our recent screen for COVID-19 were positive but we are pretty much giving up on testing except for admissions or seniors".

So I'd expect to have a less clear picture of the outbreak in this country if those policies are carried forth. Suboptimal as far as I'm concerned. [:(]

I thought back at the conversation I had with my friend specialised in sleep disorders, and I realised that, of course, he is a psychiatrist.

Now... we are having stress, tension, insomnia, fear... The people on the front lines (doctors, nurses, ambulance drivers, Red Cross crews) are, factually, fighting a war. The sick and the dead among them are counted by the dozen...

And today a young nurse here in Lombardy took her life. They only said that this happened she was home (after working) for several turns due a "sickness", but not suffering from Coronavirus.

Then there are all the jobless people who are wondering about their future, maybe with a family to sustain, and... I guess you got the gist.

What I'm trying to say is that when the worse from the virus will be over, there will be unnumbered cases of PTSD. I fear for a spike in substance abuse, drug abuse, survivor's guilt and, God forbids, self-harming acts.

Psychologist and psychiatrist should prepare for this - and yet no one does seem to be evaluating this danger. I can only hope for the best.

Yes, it could be bad.

Also, stay away from Stromboli. I thought that it was something to eat but in Italy it is worse.

It's a bit past now but USSR population in 1991 was 293 million, and many of the Eastern European states that broke free are pretty populous (i.e. Ukraine with over 40m people, etc.)

What infection rates in Iceland and Australia may reveal about how COVID-19 could spread in the US

Research into the possible effects of heat, humidity and population density on the transmission of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has led some to consider that warmer weather during spring and summer in the Northern Hemisphere may lead to a decrease in the number of cases of COVID-19, the illness it causes, but there is a range of opinions on the matter in the infectious disease community.

The effect of the sun’s ultraviolet rays may play a larger role than even heat and humidity. As the probe into what role weather may play in the spread of COVID-19 continues, a data analysis may provide some new clues for what to expect in the United States as summer approaches. In particular, a look at the per capita infection rates of Iceland and Australia could offer a glimpse at UV’s possible impact on the spread of COVID-19 around the world.

As of Tuesday, Iceland has among the world's highest rates of confirmed coronavirus cases per capita at 0.177 percent, with 648 cases from a population of 364,260. Australia’s confirmed infected rate is just 0.0083 percent – 2,044 cases from a population of 25.4 million people.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-w ... -us/707057

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

??????????

May/June 1998 issue of Columbia Journalism Review “Factoid Watch: Food poisoning's phony figures".

By Dan Wilson

Can you pull that?

So far only from here and I have no "Sign In"


https://go.gale.com/ps/anonymous?id=GAL ... =AONE&sw=w

I went to see how far I got. Apparently some public libraries have credentials, so if you know somebody ...

US map, plus showing some in Canada land, Mexico land, the caribean islands and the northern part of South America.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Tracker
Updated: 3/23/2020, 6:59 PM CDT
Copied
Interactive tracker offers users map and graphical displays for COVID-19 disease global spread, including total confirmed, active, recovered cases, and deaths.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/covid-19

edit: dang picture is not showing up, but it is in the link.

As hot spots are materializing in the US, it's probably a good idea to ascertain availability of hospital beds and ICU capability per region and state. Accordingly here's an up-to-date article from the Society of Critical Care Medicine which specifically focuses on resource availability for Covid-19:

With the onset of COVID-19,1 and the strong possibility of large percentages of the U.S. population being admitted to the hospital and intensive care unit (ICU), the Society of Critical Care Medicine (SCCM) has updated its statistics on critical care resources available in the United States.2 Our goal is to provide information regarding the resources both available and needed to care for a potentially overwhelming number of critically ill patients, many of whom may require mechanical ventilation.1 In this report, we address the most current data and estimates on the number of acute care, ICU, and step-down (eg, observation, progressive) beds; ICU occupancy rates; mechanical ventilators; and staffing. We also seek to provide context to the data.

It's a pretty comprehensive report, so I'd encourage those interested to read it. There's a lot of disinformation being promulgated by the media, and this helps cut through that.

In addition, the American Hospital Association has a map and a graph showing the count and location of hospitals throughout the country (see #1 on the attachment). That's interesting information, but what about ICU capability? This map (behind a Washington Post paywall), indicates there's a pretty strong correlation (#2 on the attachment)

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: Ian R

ORIGINAL: obvert



Ahhh, the joys of choosing soundbites out of context. I'm pretty sure basic maths is in his sphere of knowledge.

The nicest thing I've Heard said about Niall was by Sir Antony Beevor (during questions at the end of a a talk) - something to the effect -

'I prefer to leave the counter factuals to Niall Ferguson and Andrew Roberts"

Assuming I'm not being whooshed by a joke here - I think this is a sub-editing error. There is a Neil Ferguson at Imperial College who is an epidemiologist who I assume is the person who is actually being quoted.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/neil.ferguson

quote:

Definitely looks that way - TV Niall has been at Harvard for a decade (and has become a US citizen) ... although he probably has affiliations with other institutions.

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Ian R

The nicest thing I've Heard said about Niall was by Sir Antony Beevor (during questions at the end of a a talk) - something to the effect -

'I prefer to leave the counter factuals to Niall Ferguson and Andrew Roberts"

Maybe Antony Beevor has trouble with historians who try to view the legacy of the British Empire without Union Jack tinted glasses on?

IIRC it was a presentation about the Soviet role in the winning of WW2, so that may not have been directly relevant.

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

US map, plus showing some in Canada land, Mexico land, the caribean islands and the northern part of South America.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/covid-19

edit: dang picture is not showing up, but it is in the link.

I actually really liked that timelapse map that one italian group had for Italy. Does a good job of at a glance seeing how things are spreading across the country.

ORIGINAL: Kull

As hot spots are materializing in the US, it's probably a good idea to ascertain availability of hospital beds and ICU capability per region and state. Accordingly here's an up-to-date article from the Society of Critical Care Medicine which specifically focuses on resource availability for Covid-19:

With the onset of COVID-19,1 and the strong possibility of large percentages of the U.S. population being admitted to the hospital and intensive care unit (ICU), the Society of Critical Care Medicine (SCCM) has updated its statistics on critical care resources available in the United States.2 Our goal is to provide information regarding the resources both available and needed to care for a potentially overwhelming number of critically ill patients, many of whom may require mechanical ventilation.1 In this report, we address the most current data and estimates on the number of acute care, ICU, and step-down (eg, observation, progressive) beds; ICU occupancy rates; mechanical ventilators; and staffing. We also seek to provide context to the data.

It's a pretty comprehensive report, so I'd encourage those interested to read it. There's a lot of disinformation being promulgated by the media, and this helps cut through that.

In addition, the American Hospital Association has a map and a graph showing the count and location of hospitals throughout the country (see #1 on the attachment). That's interesting information, but what about ICU capability? This map (behind a Washington Post paywall), indicates there's a pretty strong correlation (#2 on the attachment)

Interesting report, Kull. Texas has big capacity, apparently. But then again, everything's big in Texas. As you know, there are large numbers of stand-alone urgent care centers and stand-alone emergency clinics scattered around these here parts. I wonder if the standout Texas numbers are a feature of including those as well in the 'hospital' definition, as opposed to more conventional viewpoints of monolithic 'hospital' facilities.

Look at the caveat. Please be safe:

DETROIT (AP) - Two men, one from Macomb County and one from Kent County, have died from complications due to the coronavirus, bringing the number of fatalities in Michigan to eight.

Macomb County Executive Mark Hackel announced Saturday night that a 52-year-old man with underlying health conditions died at a hospital in Clinton Township.

In Kent County, the local health department released a statement that confirmed the death of a 71-year-old man, also with underlying health conditions.

https://www.wdio.com/michigan-up-news/m ... ?cat=12060