Some reflections on the possible SA-5 shoot-down incident:
This article doubts on the official version, and speculates on the possibility of a retaliatory SCUD launch by Syria against Israel (I doubt it, Syrian army rogue launches or Iranian militias lauches aside, because the fast response and chain of command autorization and issues):
http://www.defensenews.com/articles/isr ... ainst-what
More views here, SA-5 were launched from "Eastern Syria", I think the two Syrian SA-5 placement are in Western Syria (as depicted in the Latakia scenario), and the article talks about two or more missiles launched in the general direction of Israel, more compatible with a few Scud launch than with some SA-5 lauch (straight trajectory and apogee, between another things).
As mentioned, I was skeptic on the Scud launch, but now I think it as very pausible.
The IDF official statement was perhaps a press release to prevent a ground-to-ground missile lauches escalade:
http://www.thetower.org/4737-in-first-i ... raeli-jet/
This is probably the orginal news report, very compatible with all the previous comments.
Also, is curious some sources label the ABM as Arrow-2 and other as Arrow-3.
The photo with the debris on the house yard/fence, is identified as an Arrow booster:
http://www.timesofisrael.com/iaf-arrow- ... he-system/
On SA-5 sites and placements:
http://geimint.blogspot.com.es/2007/07/ ... lysis.html
As mentioned, the five SA-5 placements in Syria in 2010 (before the civil war from 2011) are all in Western Syria, not Eastern Syria.
In Wikipedia was also mentioned some months ago a "new" placement from late 2016 near Aleppo, also in Western Syria.
All those details are consistent with a few Scud launches against Israel.
http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Syria-SA ... ocId445614
There are currently 5 active S-200 sites within Syria. The S-200 provides long-range barrier air defense along the western border and into the Mediterranean.
Details of all this and other previous incident in 2016:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-200_(mi ... al_history
The Syrian Army constructed an S-200 site at Kweires airport, near Aleppo in July 2016.[18][19] On September 12, 2016, Israel Defense Forces confirmed that two Syrian S-200 missiles were fired at Israeli attack planes while they were on a mission inside the Syrian airspace. The Syrian Defense Ministry claimed that an Israeli jet and drone were shot down. According to IDF spokesman's office, the claims are "total lies," and "at no point was the safety of IDF aircraft compromised." [20]
On March 17, 2017 Israeli Air Force attacked a number of Syrian armed forces targets near Palmyria in Syria. During the action a number of Syrian S-200 missiles were fired at the Israeli aircraft[citation needed]. One of the missiles, going ballistic after losing its target was inbound to a populated area in Israel, as such the Israeli missile defense claimed to fire an Arrow missile which allegedly intercepted the incoming rocket.[citation needed] Indeed two other S-200 missiles allegedly landed in other parts of Israel, having lost their target, while the Syrian Defense Ministry claimed that an Israeli fighter jet was shot down, which was denied by Israel. An Arrow 3 missile landed in Jordan.
More details to drawn conclusions by yourselves:
- Damascus (Western Syria) - Tel Aviv (by any other point of Israel, is a very small country) distance is some 130 nm in the Scenario Editor.
- S-200VE/SA-5b (SA-5c was never exported, and also its range is some 162 nm) range is some 151 nm, too short range to reach Israel if launched from Eastern Syria (100 or 200 nm more East and North of Damascus).
- Scud range: The Military Balance 2016 lists as Syrian surface-to-surface missiles these:
- Scud A/B/C, ranges: 81/162/297 nm, the last one is the longer missile range, and capable to be launched from Eastern Syria.
- SS-21 Scarab/9K79 Tochka, ranges (diverse variants): 37.8-97 nm.
- Fateh 110/M-600 (Syrian variant of Iranian missile), range: 135 nm, perhaps maintained by Iranian forces in Syria.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fateh-110
