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If the Allies can't mount air attacks with their LBA why bother with barges?  If I can protect my shipping with LBA and the KB then I'm going to run APs to Irau (for example).  Come and get it if you dare.  A twofold op where the supply TF is also the bait. 

The 4E bombers have the range to hit though so.......barges to be safe.

Makes sense, but as I said you now no longer need to run barges from shortlands.

After a few Allied carrier raids you will.

So how do you keep the northern bases supplied?

Once Irau falls Tulagi and Lunga will be cut off.  If the Allies get an airbase close enough so fighters can reach Raubl the entire map becomes a death trap for the IJN and supplies to bases become suicide runs giving the Allied player more VPs.  Kavieng will serve as a main supply base for a bit and it too will be cut off.  That's the nature of UV.  A good player can and will prevent supplies from Trukflowing southwards.  There really nothing that the Japanese player can do about it that will have a last effect.