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[center]Turn 8[/center]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGN front at the end of turn 8. The limited forces the Germans have available are being concentrated for an offensive to take Lagoda. In fact, an attack pushed the panzers one hex closer. Furthermore, a couple of rail bridges were blown by air, to make it harder for the Soviets to reinforce the Lagoda battle.

I now have to admit that I’ve misplayed the Soviet side of this battle. I should have blown the bridge in the hex that was just captured when I had the chance. Since it, like many other hexes in the area, contains badlands, this would have prevented the panzers from attacking it, and made the Germans wait for infantry to get there. But I didn’t realize the Germans were in range to try an attack, so I thought further reinforcements might be able to get into the hex, if the bridge was kept up. Earlier, there could have been other bridges blown forward of it, as well. Now, Lagoda is probably doomed. The frontline bridges have now been blown, though.

Furthermore, I’ve just discovered that I forgot about it and left the released Leningrad 2 factory in Leningrad, instead of moving it to Siberia and safety. This is just the sort of stupid mistake I’ve warned players about in the briefing. If Leningrad falls, that factory’s destruction will give the Germans an extra VP boost. I also didn’t start reinforcing this front soon enough. Moscow is now over defended, while Leningrad is too weakly defended. Both sides have this same management problem: too many needs and not enough forces to fill them. It makes for a challenging game, and if you make a miscalculation, it will cost you.

Note that part of the problem here (even if I had played the Soviets better) is 20:20 hindsight. The Germans know from the start that Lagoda is the key to Leningrad. Whereas the historical Germans didn’t figure this out until it was too late. Nevertheless, I think better Soviet play could still have thwarted the German plans.

Note that this turn was the last turn of Soviet ground and air shock. And the Soviet air units have been building to what looks like parity with the Luftwaffe. So, I’ve moved the AS air units up to the front and deployed them into AS from Rest. I hope this can somewhat blunt the Luftwaffe’s ability to blow bridges and conduct combat operations.

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGC front at the end of turn 8. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. The panzers have almost reached Kiev, with one pocket left to be reduced before it.

If the Soviets didn’t rise up out of their trenches last turn, they certainly weren’t going to this turn. The German defense line is better entrenched, and stronger. But it’s stretched about as far as it can be stretched. The Kiev operation needs to hurry up.

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 8. One more manpower center was captured (Kherson – reducing Soviet manpower by 0.81%. The new grand total reduction is 0.81% + 14.62% = 15.43%). AGS had to concentrate on the southern part of the Kiev pincer. This delayed any advance further into the Ukraine, except for the push into Kherson. The Kiev pocket is about to be formed, though, with only three hexes between the two pincers.

Of the 33 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 18 were manually disbanded, 10 were auto-disbanded, and five were denied due to German capture. There were no new Soviet cadres, and the only one remaining was destroyed.

[center]Turn 9[/center]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGN front at the end of turn 9. The German armor next to the Lagoda hex couldn’t attack it due to the badlands. So they attacked the hex to the south, capturing it. Meanwhile, infantry units were moved next to the Lagoda hex, to resume the offensive next turn. It’s very likely that Lagoda will fall then. The only hope for it is that it has some armor in its defense. So the German, all-infantry attack, may founder on that armor. Note that the Brandenburg division, operating under loan to the Finns, has infiltrated to the east of Lagoda. But, due to house rule #3, it still can’t join any attacks, until it links up with the main force.

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGC front at the end of turn 9. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. The panzers have moved off the map to the south, completing the encirclement of the Kiev pocket. That leaves this section of the front inactive, except for the one remaining pocket, which was partly reduced.

With the end of the shock penalties, the Soviet airforce was put into major action for the first time since turn one. Despite the relative parity of the posted air-strengths, the Luftwaffe manhandled them pretty severely, with a large positive loss ratio. Nevertheless, this did somewhat blunt the Luftwaffe’s ability to operate with impunity. It’s probably a price worth paying for now.

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 9. One more manpower center was captured (Poltava – reducing Soviet manpower by 0.72%. The new grand total reduction is 0.72% + 15.43% = 16.15%). The Kiev pocket has been formed. The six pocketed armies will rapidly wither in the turns to come. Other AGS forces have reached the entrance to the Crimea.

Of the 32 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 16 were manually disbanded, 10 were auto-disbanded, and six were denied due to German capture. There were two new Soviet cadres, and both were destroyed.

[center]Turn 10[/center]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGN front at the end of turn 10. The Soviets held on to the Lagoda hex. The armor may have helped, but it was primarily the fact that, with the bridge blown, the terrain costs to enter the target hex that only one attack could be launched. The hex was then reinforced in the Soviet player turn. The Germans may have to try to cut off Lagoda, to prevent further reinforcement. If I had been following this tactic from the start, Lagoda would now be much safer.

One other surprise here. I discovered that the German armor has marched into a hole that it can’t get out of. It is surrounded by badland hexes and can’t move in any direction. The only way out would be if the Finnish RR unit repaired the rail lines out of the hex and they entrained themselves out of the hex. That will take too long, so I’ll have to disband them and wait for them to reconstitute, then move them all the way from the western map edge. What a blunder! Isn’t this my own scenario? The north is turning into a comedy of errors.

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGC front at the end of turn 10. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. The one remaining pocket has been fully reduced. One more manpower center was captured (Gomel – reducing Soviet manpower by 0.57%.).

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 10. One more manpower center was captured (Sumy – reducing Soviet manpower by 0.66%. The new grand total reduction is 0.57% + 0.66% + 16.15% = 17.38%). The six pocketed armies in the Kiev pocket have started to rapidly wither, as predicted last turn. Other AGS forces have breached the entrance to the Crimea and threaten Sevastopol. A Soviet unit was rushed into Sevastopol, in a desperate attempt to cling to it. This, in fact, allowed the reconstituted Sevastopol garrison unit to arrive the following turn.

It’s time to discuss the Crimea defense factors. First, the entrance to the Crimea, being two hexes wide with poor terrain, is not worth much of a defense. Second, Sevastopol, while fortified, isn’t worth much more except that it can delay the Axis from the real prize. Third, that prize is the Kerch straight. If the Axis get past that point, they will be very hard to bottle back up, and the whole front will disintegrate. Note that Kerch is not very well defended at the moment. It may be necessary to shift one of the full-strength armies from the defense of Moscow to this point.

Of the 33 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 16 were manually disbanded, 10 were auto-disbanded, six were denied due to German capture, and one was destroyed in combat. The Atlantic Lend Lease disbandments were received as well. There was one new Soviet cadre, which was destroyed.

[center]Turn 11[/center]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGN front at the end of turn 11. The Lagoda hex has been captured by the Axis. The defenders were cleared out, but the attackers couldn’t advance. But, there was a Finnish unit that could advance, and did so. Remember that house rule #3 permits the Finns to move beyond their stop line so long as they don’t attack. The Soviets had nothing with enough chance to retake the hex, so it is now lost. After a delay of four turns (on turn 16), the supply point in the Leningrad hex will be removed. There is no provision for halting the removal of the supply point if the Soviets recapture the Lagoda hex. The only way supply can now be maintained to Leningrad would be if it could somehow be relieved. That is very unlikely.

With its supply point gone, Leningrad will quickly become vulnerable to attack. Probably by turn 20, it will fall. The only compensation to the Soviets is that the scenario is designed so that the historical result is rated a marginal defeat for the Axis. Capture of Leningrad should just push the level into the draw category, all else being equal. But that leaves no margin for error for the rest of the game.

Note that I had no choice but to disband the two motorized units trapped by the badlands hexes.

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGC front at the end of turn 11. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. Other than some attempts at bridge repair, nothing is happening on this sector. Note at the very top, that the Soviets pulled one army out of the line and replaced it with a RES unit. The removed army was sent to the Kerch defense. The Soviets need to do more of this for other threatened sectors, but must do so in a manner that doesn’t tempt the Germans to refocus on Moscow.

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 11. One more manpower center was captured (Simferopol – reducing Soviet manpower by 0.53%. The new grand total reduction is 0.53% + 17.38% = 17.91%). The six pocketed armies in the Kiev pocket continue to wither even more rapidly. Sevastopol is now cut off, and may soon be assaulted. As mentioned above, the Soviets shifted an army from in front of Moscow to the Kerch straight. It must be held at all costs. Otherwise, the Soviet defense of the Ukraine area (between Orel and Rostov) still needs to be strengthened. Once the Kiev pocket has been reduced, that’s where the Germans are likely to focus next.

Of the 34 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 16 were manually disbanded, 10 were auto-disbanded, and eight were denied due to German capture. The Pacific Lend Lease disbandments were received as well. There were three new Soviet cadres, and two were destroyed.

[center]Turn 12[/center]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGN front at the end of turn 12. Little happened here, except for heavy Soviet reinforcement arrivals. The Lagoda hex may be lost, but the Soviets still want to secure the northern flank of their overall defense line. The Germans must not be allowed to make a bad situation worse, by rolling up the whole Soviet line. If properly secured, that’s unlikely, due to the very poor terrain in the area. But if they are allowed to break out of the anchoring area, the front will expand so wide it will never be plugged. Reinforcements are also being sent to the area north of here, to guard Archangel. While the Finns may be restricted, the Germans are not, and they now have an open path to be moved up there.

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGC front at the end of turn 12. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. Nothing is happening on this sector. Note that the Soviets pulled three RES units out of the second line. The removed units were sent to the Ukraine defense.

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 12. One more manpower center was captured (Cherkasy – reducing Soviet manpower by 0.66%. The new grand total reduction is 0.66% + 17.91% = 18.57%). Four of the six armies in the Kiev pocket were eliminated. Note that the remaining two armies in Kiev itself now have a cumulative strength of only 5+6=11. When they were first cut off back at the end of turn nine, their strength was 38+58=96. That’s a reduction of 88.5% in only three turns. Sevastopol was captured. That will result in the Black Sea Fleet being mothballed next turn (with a dump of squads into the pools), and the release of the Romanian Fleet. Kharkov is now seriously threatened, as is the north coast of the Sea of Azov, where the 26th Army has been pocketed.

The TO to release the Stalino factory was exercised (increasing the reduction of Soviet production to 17.53%). Of the 32 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 17 were manually disbanded, 10 were auto-disbanded, and five were denied due to German capture. There were three new Soviet cadres, and all, plus the one left from the previous turn, were destroyed.

[center]Turn 13[/center]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGN front at the end of turn 13. One hex was captured. The terrain is so bad up here and there is so little of value nearby, that a serious effort isn’t worth it. The one goal worth continuing, though, is the chance to separate the Soviets from their anchor to their defense line. Then they might be forced to shift extra forces up here to plug the resulting flank that would be hanging unanchored. That’s unlikely, since the Soviets have been shifting forces here anyway, and are approaching force parity. AGN no longer has any armor – not that the terrain is favorable to armor, anyway. In fact, a new armored corps assigned to AGN arrived this turn and was sent elsewhere for those reasons. Otherwise, some effort is useful to put some more distance between Leningrad and the Soviet lines, to discourage any relief attempts.

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGC front at the end of turn 13. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. Nothing is happening on this sector. Note that the Soviets pulled two RES units and one army out of the second line. The removed units were sent to the Ukraine defense. It’s getting risky to pull out any more, yet the Ukraine is still in serious danger.

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGS front at the end of turn 13. Two more manpower centers were captured (Kiev & Kharkov – reducing Soviet manpower by 1.92% & 1.95%. The new grand total reduction is 1.92% + 1.95% + 18.57% = 22.44%). Note that, like any other major city, these two hexes must be garrisoned by a division. The Kiev pocket was eliminated. The Black Sea Fleet was mothballed and the Romanian Fleet was released. Kharkov was captured at considerable cost. The 26th Army was eliminated. Note that the forces that had been reducing the Kiev pocket are now being shifted to an offensive against the Ukraine. Moscow is simply too far away and too well defended. And the Ukraine has lots of VP sites in it.

Also, a success in the Ukraine could dislodge the southern anchor of the Soviet defense line at Rostov – vastly expanding the length of the Soviet defense. Success at the Kerch straight may add to this problem, as well. The Kerch straight defenders evaporated without much of a fight – probably due to the fact that I deployed them east of the straight, and they couldn’t retreat across it. The way I’ve played the Soviets in this game, I expect that if I had actually been one of Stalin’s marshals, I would have been shot some time ago. The one real hope for the Soviets is that there are only three more turns of good weather. They desperately need the mud phase to start, so they can dig in and rebuild.

Of the 33 manpower levy units scheduled this turn, 15 were manually disbanded, 10 were auto-disbanded, and eight were denied due to German capture. There were three new Soviet cadres, and two were destroyed. I just noticed that, back on turn 12, a cadre had been pushed onto one of the repaired rail hexes of the AGC track, breaking it when the Germans recaptured it. Rather than delay the AGC track’s repair, I’ll shift the AGN RR unit to fix it, since AGN is getting supply from Helsinki now, and soon will have a supply point in Leningrad, once it falls.

[center]Turn 14[/center]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGN front at the end of turn 14. Two hexes were captured. It looks like there may be a rupture of the Soviet lines, but the flooded terrain in front of it will prevent that. In fact, the Germans have to be careful not to advance units into unsupplied conditions. Badlands block supply transfer through them.

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the AGC front at the end of turn 14. Note the microscreen in the NW corner for reference. There is still nothing happening on this sector. Note that the Soviets pulled three more RES units out of the second line. The removed units were again sent to the Ukraine defense. Because of the serious danger to the Ukraine, the Soviets have no choice but to be very risky on this quiet sector.