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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted
Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2009 10:05 pm
by stuman
Joe seems to be asking the question of what the US fleet would have done with such warning. No question that with CAP up, all defenses manned, assets spread around ( to fullest extent possible ) and so forth and so on there would have been greater Japanese air losses. I for one do not think that if Kimmel knew there were 6 enemy carriers out there he would have led the BS out to intercept. I bet he would have pulled up anchor and led them away. IF he could have gotten the 2 carriers there in time, and gotten very quick approval to lead them, and supporting ships, at the KB would he ? I still do not think so against 6 carriers. But that is only my ill informed opinion. I just think that even at that early stage we would not have led 2 carriers and BS support against 6.
RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted
Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2009 10:51 pm
by borner
Even if just the telegram/cable/radio message sent early Dec 7th had arrived, the fleet and army air coprs would have had about 90 minutes to get ready. The commanders would know the exact time of the attack, so could have committed every fighter that could get airborn to cap at that time. Plus, the fleet and shore batteries could have had AA guns manned and ready. Yes, the fighters were mostly of poor quality, but there would have been a lot of them, and a fraction would clearly have gotten through. Especially when Radar detected them on the way in and they could be vectored to target before they got over port. Overall the losses to Japan would have been far higher, and the effectiveness of the attack much lower. Less torp hits, and BB's with watertight doors shut would have resulted in far less long term damage
RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted
Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2009 11:41 pm
by Nikademus
ORIGINAL: Joe Kemper
Sorry if this has been discussed previously but I tried to search with no luck.
What if Pearl Harbor had been alerted to the approach of the Japanese fleet and we knew the Japanese were under orders to attack.
What would have been the response? If we knew it was a carrier strike force and its location and heading were known would the battleships have been sent to intercept or would they wait to join with the Lexington and/or Enterprise, if practical?
Would the fleet try to remain within land based fighter protection?
Given the thinking of the time, my guess would be that the fleet would have sortied. The primary reason being that at the time the Battleship was still considered the primary instrument of sea power, and it had yet to be decisively proven that, at sea, fully alert and manned that the modern or fully modernized battleship could be crippled much less sunk while operating at sea by aircraft alone. (This viewpoint would be shattered on Dec 10, 1941 off Malaya)
That being said, I don't think the results would have been all that much greater than what was experienced at Pearl. Battleships may have had to give way to the Carrier but they remained tough targets to fully take down. Yamato and Musashi may have been at the extreme end of that given their size and toughness, but they still provided a good example of how much airpower it could take to take out even one of them. My conservative estimate, would be that the USN fleet at sea, if concentrated and attacked by Nagumo, would suffer up to several BB's crippled and/or sunk with more damages around to other BB's and/or escort/screening vessels. Even a 21 knot battleship with inadequate AA but well screened and maneuvering is a tougher target than one sitting at 0 knots with crews not at their stations.
Biggest shock for the USN and the world at large would be the hurt delivered coupled with the inability to engage the perpetrators of the attack outside of shooting some of the planes out of the sky. It would have been a frustrating and thought provoking day.
RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted
Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2009 11:44 pm
by Joe Kemper
My main focus on this question concerns the US Navy response to information that a Japanese carrier force is on its way to attack Pearl Harbor.
If both carriers could have returned to the fleet in time to join the battleships I believe ,like AW1Steve had posted, that Kimmel would have tried to engage the enemy fleet. I'm not sure what would have happened if he knew there were six carriers, as stuman had mentioned. It might have been the practical thing to withdraw, but he would have been abandoning the base before a time when the navy fully grasped the killing power of the carrier.
If neither the Lexington or Enterprise could have joined them in time, I wonder if he still would try to engage them with the fleet using land based air cover? I don't know, but the pressure to defend the base would have been great.
Thanks for all the input.
RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted
Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2009 11:56 pm
by Nikademus
If enough warning time is given, I can't conceive of the US response being to sit there and circle the wagons. The primary strength of the US Pacific Fleet (aka, the battleships considered at that time) are simply to precious an asset to risk. They would most likely sortie and retreat, leaving the base's defenses to greet the attacker. Kind of similar to the RN reaction to the sinking of Royal Oak during WWII or the various sub threats to the Grand Fleet during WWI. You don't sit at a compromised base or one where attack is immenently expected when at best the units in question can only indirectly assist in the base's defense. Add to that the simple fact that a battleship's role in life did not include being a static AA battery. Finding an empty harbor would also be a killjoy for the attackers.
RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted
Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 12:09 am
by Joe Kemper
Thanks Nikademus, I wasn't very clear in my previous response. If the carriers had not been available, I didn't know if the fleet would still have sortied but remained under land based air cover with hopes of engaging the enemy, they would have not been in port.
RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted
Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 12:18 am
by Nikademus
No problem.
If the carriers are there, the speculation gets more murky....IMO at least. A fast BB force might attempt to chase down the enemy or intercept them with carrier help, but with slow BB's.....saddled with hindsight, i have a hard time picturing it but its conceivable they would try, either along with a carrier thrust or with the carriers close by to provide protection and scouting/strike against the enemy flight decks, to close with the enemy. The presence of US carriers would act as a magnet for the enemy air as well. Flyers always considered fellow carriers to be the real targets.
All this of course presupposes that the US gets tipped off while the IJN sticks to the plan. Nagumo was IMO too cautious to risk a mobile battle so far away from home if he were to suspect that the gig was up. He'd have most likely beat it.
RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted
Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 7:14 am
by HMAS Sydney
It was better for the US to have their ships sunk at Pearl rather than the open ocean. Many of the ships at Pearl were only saved because they didn't have far to sink. In the open ocean they would have gone to the bottom and been lost.
RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted
Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 7:20 am
by herwin
ORIGINAL: witpqs
ORIGINAL: herwin
The local Japanese spies would have reported back that the fleet was out of its anchorage, and the KB would have aborted the operation.
Wait a minute - that depends upon when the fleet sortied and what were the means of communications available to the spies. Could they contact the fleet directly? Did they have to go through the embassy?
Japan had a consulate in Honolulu. The last intel update that reached the KB was collected late Saturday evening. Remember, the US Fleet was at peace, and everything it did was very quickly known to the Japanese.
RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted
Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 7:21 am
by herwin
ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk
They expected to have to fight their way in. IIRC once the signal 'climb niitaka' went out to KB on 12/2 or 12/3 they were on autopilot to attack.
They also expected to lose two carriers.
RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted
Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 7:23 am
by herwin
ORIGINAL: Joe Kemper
Thanks Nikademus, I wasn't very clear in my previous response. If the carriers had not been available, I didn't know if the fleet would still have sortied but remained under land based air cover with hopes of engaging the enemy, they would have not been in port.
The Battle Fleet would probably have moved to Lahaina Roads, which was too far for the KB to attack given their fuel situation.
RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted
Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 12:03 pm
by DivePac88
Also the Japanese admitted after the war that if they had had to Strike at Lahaina Roads, they would have had to scuttle their Destroyers, and probably Soryu on the way home because of lack of fuel.
RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted
Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 12:33 pm
by BrucePowers
ORIGINAL: Terminus
If the battle fleet had sortied, they'd have been sunk at sea, rather than in port.
There is one line of thought that that if the battle line sortied it would have been far worse. As Terminus said they would have been sunk at sea. The loss of life may have been much higher and none of those ships could have been salvaged.
RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted
Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 12:34 pm
by HMAS Sydney
ORIGINAL: BrucePowers
ORIGINAL: Terminus
If the battle fleet had sortied, they'd have been sunk at sea, rather than in port.
There is one line of thought that that if the battle line sortied it would have been far worse. As Terminus said they would have been sunk at sea. The loss of life may have been much higher and none of those ships could have been salvaged.
I believe a few of the ships the Japanese thought to have been sunk and lost to the Americans were there at the signing of the Japanese surrender.
RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted
Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 12:48 pm
by Mike Scholl
ORIGINAL: Joe Kemper
Sorry if this has been discussed previously but I tried to search with no luck.
What if Pearl Harbor had been alerted to the approach of the Japanese fleet and we knew the Japanese were under orders to attack.
What would have been the response? If we knew it was a carrier strike force and its location and heading were known would the battleships have been sent to intercept or would they wait to join with the Lexington and/or Enterprise, if practical?
Would the fleet try to remain within land based fighter protection?
I am sure there are many variables to consider but I wonder what the response would have been based on the tactical and strategic doctrine of the US Navy at that time.
Thank you
Joe
Biggest question would be "How much notice?" Probably we're talking less than 24 hours. Best that could be accomplished in that time would be to have the submarines sortie, and the rest of the fleet manned and ready and closed up for combat with AAA ammunition fused and available. Full fighter CAP would have broken up many Japanese attacks..., as the success for the few that historically got into the air demonstrated. Overall, damage would have been less, Japanese losses much higher....
RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted
Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 12:58 pm
by BrucePowers
There is also the possibility that if Pearl Harbor was alerted, and the IJN knew it, the attack could have been recalled.
RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted
Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 1:07 pm
by John 3rd
ORIGINAL: Anthropoid
ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk
They expected to have to fight their way in. IIRC once the signal 'climb niitaka' went out to KB on 12/2 or 12/3 they were on autopilot to attack.
Yeah, but didn't the lead Japanese dude decide not to send the second (or third) wave primarily because they no longer had surprise? That's what it said in that old movie . . .
In any event, the one class of things that I think would have been dramatically different had PH been alerted is that US soldiers sailors and airmen would not have been lounging around enjoying a lazy Sunday morning, all hands would've been at battle stations or general quarters or whatever, water-tight compartments would've been prepped, aircraft would've been on patrol or else fueled, armed and ready to launch, etc., etc.
No matter what effect being in port or being out of port (or whether they would have sortied or not) would have had, being prepared for an attack in all the above noted ways surely would've made a very big difference? After all, isn't the advantage in most combat for the defender, except in those instances where a surprise attack catches the defender unprepared?
Sure, Kimmel sortying might have led to more boats lost to U.S. but on the other hand if they were not all in port in the first place what is the chance that the Jap airplane formations would have been able to find them, let alone buzz-in in such effective and orchestrated high-densities and score so many devastating hits?
Sure 15knt is not that fast but it will put distance between you and PH if it is sustained for a few hours and just being out there at sea, where the ability of the Japanese attack to find them would've been reduced could've led to some very different results. For that matter, if the KB leadership thought a flotilla of US BBs was heading their way, would they have just lingered in the area waiting for all their planes to complete their attacks on a (potentially in large part empty) Pearl Harbor?
So many contingencies . . . I think the only things you can say with any certainty are: it would not have turned out the way it did; and more Japanese planes would likely have been shot down.
US losses might not have been much different, and indeed as pointed out because of the benefit of the shallow harbor for subsequent recovery efforts, more ships might have been totally lost. But then again, if the departure of large fractions of the fleet occurred the evening before, giving 12 hours of steaming away from PH to some obscure spot 80 or 90 miles removed from the harbor, maybe very few high value ships would've been lost at all.
The...Japanese...."DUDE?" Oh, my...
RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted
Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 1:10 pm
by John 3rd
I just got done reading Newt Gingrich's Days of Infamy and I have to admit that the alternative history was REALLY absorbing. What would have happened had Yamamoto actually commanded instead of Nagumo? What would have happened IF the 3rd Strike had been ordered? What might have taken place if the Japanese STAYED on the 8th?
Think about "Bull" Halsey's aggressiveness. The book was pure popcorn to read...
RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted
Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 1:15 pm
by John Lansford
In order for the KB to launch the attack in the first place, the ships had to be in the harbor. They got their last report the night before the attack, so the Pacific Fleet basically has to be alerted after that time for the scenario to work.
First off, the crews are on shore leave the night before. Even an all hands emergency recall to every ship in the fleet is going to take a lot of time before the crews are back on board. Would the captains sortie their ships with minimal crews, knowing the harbor would be attacked the next morning? I'd think they probably would, not to fight, but to escape.
Second, given perhaps no more than 18 hours warning, only Enterprise would be close enough to react. Probably the ships leaving Pearl would be ordered to rendezvous with Enterprise south of Oahu. Lexington is too far west to be of much use.
Third, the harbor and air defenses would be fully manned and ready, planes dispersed or in the air, all ships not leaving would be at full watertight integrity and all guns manned, etc. The KB strike forces would find little to attack (Pennsylvania and some support ships, probably) and a fully alert base waiting on them.
RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted
Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 1:37 pm
by Nikademus
ORIGINAL: HMAS Sydney
It was better for the US to have their ships sunk at Pearl rather than the open ocean. Many of the ships at Pearl were only saved because they didn't have far to sink. In the open ocean they would have gone to the bottom and been lost.
Two ships, Arizona and Oklahoma, were permanently lost despite being sunk "in harbor". Since I have doubts that KB could have sunk substantially more ships if the fleet was out at sea and maneuvering and fighting back, ultimately it might not have made any difference. Besides which, as i related earlier, I can't really conceive of a major fleet like Kimmel's simply sitting in harbor awaiting an attack.