ORIGINAL: warspite1
ORIGINAL: Alfred
There are only 3 true world soccer superpowers:
Brazil
Italy
Germany
It does not matter how good or how bad their lead up preformances are, who the coach is or who is in the squad, whenever any of these countries are in a Championship, be it Euro/world Cup/Confederations etc, these three superpowers cannot be dismissed. They have:
(a) the domestic infrastructure which creates a huge pool of tough players/coaches/managers/ancillary staff
(b) a track record of international success, and past success generates future success, partly because coming second is a failure whereas subconsciously many countries equate qualifying of an international championship as a successful outcome - does the mention of Mexico, Russia (albeit not qualified for this World Cup), Sweden ring a bell?
(c) soccer is the preeminent domestic football code (and thereby garners the financial resources) which easily attracts everyone with any natural ability whereas other countries (eg England, France) which have the infrastructure and do produce technically proficient players nonetheless lose some of their naturally athletically endowed players to other football codes
Other countries are strong and when the right conjunction of talented players/coaches/circumstances come together at the same spot in the cycle, produce teams which can win a Championship but inevitably they eventually decline and need to rebuild until the next cycle conjunction. But only the three superpowers remain as enduring threats in any championship which they reach.
Alfred
Warspite1
World Cup history says that is broadly right.
You can never write-off the Germans. They broke every neutral's hearts in 54 and 74. And even when they are playing badly, I would never want to play them...ever.
Italy are hot and cold - but as their record suggests, more hot than cold.
Brazil are just well....Brazil - class.
For our North American friends, I thought I would expand on Warspite1's specific reference to World Cup history.
1930 - won by Uruguay in Uruguay. Without any doubt the weakest World Cup ever. Just about every European country did not participate because they thought it would fail. Consequently the championship was really only a short South American championship won by the home country.
1934 - won by Italy in Italy. The Europeans turn up and dominate. Much stronger than 1930 but essentially a competition of two continents.
1938 - won by Italy in France. Stronger still but still dominated by the Europeans.
1950 - won by Uruguay in Uruguay. Europe still affected by effects of WWII (physical conditioning, no German participation allowed etc). Arguably weaker than the 1934 and 1938 championships. Again home ground advantage is significant.
1954 - won by West Germany in Switzerland. Post war recovery of Europe is evident. Germany allowed to participate, wins final against Hungary (a pre war powerhouse) in what some consider best final of all time.
1958 - won by Brazil in Sweden. Brazil had always been one of the strongest South American teams, but this championship establishes Brazil as the continent's consistent leader.
1962 - won by Brazil in Sweden. Again Brazil almost alone carries the South American flag against the might of Europe. Having Pele in the side does give Brazil a slight advantage.
1966 - won by England in England. Home ground advantage, the benefit of a dubious goal in the final against West Germany, and the conjunction of arguably the best English talent ever (Best, Ball, Charlton etc) brought together in the one team, makes this final a contender with Berne 1954 for best final ever albeit not for the same technical football reasons.
1970 - won by Brazil in Mexico. Italy fully recovered loses classic final against Brazil
1974 - won by West Germany in West Germany. By now championship has really expanded to include teams from all four corners of the world but remains essentially Europe v Brazil. The expansion results in many more lop sided matches.
1978 - won by Argentina in Argentina. Home ground advantage and what is widely viewed as match fixing (Argentina scores the 6 goals against Peru it needs to progress beyond the preliminary group stage).
1982 - won by Italy in Spain. Italy gains revenge over Brazil (perhaps the best non final game ever) and defeats West Germany in a classic final.
1986 - won by Argentina in Mexico. Whilst there might be some doubt that Argentian cheated in 1978, in 1986 there is absolutely no doubt that due to the "Hand of God aka Diego Maradona" Argentina cheats to defeat England in the semi final. Again a bit of suspicion that home town continental bias rears its head to ensure a South american team wins in latin America.
1990 - won by Germany (now unified) in Italy. Probably the worst final ever with Argentina reaching the final by playing everyone in front of goal and relying upon penalty shootouts to get through all the elimination matches. Italy beats England for third spot, the game that would have lifted the championship out of the mediocre had it been the final.
1994 - won by Brazil in USA. Brazil plays superb football in every match until the final when perfect Italian defence demonstrates Brazil is only a superpower, not THE power. Perhaps the best final ever but only for the cognescenti - casual spectators (read most of North America) would have not understood the subtle nuances and probably would have been underwhelmed. Penalty shootout determines final.
1998 - won by France in France. Again having a Zhidane in a football side is a bit like having a Pele. France was also the beneficiary in the final of playing a Brazil who had continued their 1994 form but whose world class players became sick on the eve of the final (some murmerings ensued). France has only ever been a world class power on three occasions - late 1950s, mid 1980s and late 1990s through to mid 2000s periods which are marked by having a world class striker, Platini and Zhidane.
2002 - won by Brazil in Japan/South Korea. Many matches were determined by very poor refereeing decisions, Italy's loss to South Korea (one of the two co-host countries) probably being the worst refereed game as an Italian goal was ruled off side incorrectly and a South Korean goal ruled OK even though it was sored from an off side position. Zhidane is in very poor form and as a result the defending champions produce the worst ever performance for a defending country.
2006 - won by Italy in Germany. Once again Germany fails to get past its World Cup bete noir Italy, this time losing a classic semi final. Zhidane is in poor form in the group stage and France barely make it through to the knock out stage, at which point Zhidane finds form and suddenly France storms through to the final where again superb Italian defence neutralises its opponent.
In summary World Cup history shows that Italy consistently has the best defence, Brazil consistently has the most dazzling attack and Germany the most consistent all round game.
For this World Cup I expect the following characteristics to apply:
Best Attack - Spain/Brazil/Serbia
Best Defence - Italy/Germany/
Best All round - Netherlands/Portugal
France only qualified after a blatent hand ball. Without Zhidane they will do well to progress beyond the group stage.
Argentina has some quality players but noone is convinced that Maradona knows how to coach. I doubt he won't blow up at some stage, thereby adversely affecting his team. People have forgotten how Argentina with its class players just managed to come 4th in the South American zone. They came very close to not qualifying at all.
Nigeria and Ghana are dark horses. If they make it to the knock out stage, then anything is possible.
On paper England should easily get through its first four matches. If that occurs you don't have to maintain form for much longer to figure in the final.
Alfred
