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Turn 6 end, AGC northern wing.
The only thing I truly feared has happened, mud... 2 very bright sides to this tho:

1. He did not punish me as hard as he should have near Smolensk
2. Mud will prevent him from making attacks along most sectors of the front.

The worrying part is that only my very weakest part of the line has good weather still, and I am unable to put a lot of reinforcements in. I might have a major crisis on my hands. Luckily I don’t see big stacks behind his front in that area. We will see.

Since the GD division is unable to reach the lines in this turn, I will give it a week to repair some Tigers and Panzer IV’s.

He obviously surrounded the stuck infantry division near Orel. Oh well, an acceptable loss. Of course to shoot myself in the foot, I discovered I forgot to extract the attached StuG battalion.

Turn 7, end

In the North I have now finished what I set out to do from the start. My rear is clear, lines are shortened, and 8 full strength infantry divisions are ready to be railed to wherever I please. Not that I can rail across the map, Partisans have left a big chunk of my rail network unusable.

The partisan situation is almost under control now though, and attacks on turn 7 have dwindled down to around 20 in total.

For me this concludes the opening phase of the campaign as I work with the assumption that the Soviets have by now finished most of the preparations for a major offensive.

I think I am in good shape. Due to Soviet timidity I have only given ground under pressure around Smolensk, most of my armies retain their combat strength, I have created a strategic option for myself by extracting 8 divisions from the North and have only lost 1 division in the process.

While my lines are strong on most parts of the front, the sector West of Kursk seems to be the only spot where a multihex breakthrough is likely on the short term. I have armored formations available to rush in though.

The next turns should see constant fighting until mud season hits. While my original plan of not giving ground where the defenses are strong will still apply, I will be more than willing to give up sectors of frontage to prevent subjecting my troops to a meat grinder. I should remember to dig fall back positions when I can so I am not forced to give ground too fast.
The start of the offensive should show if my decision to focus strength on the front in fortified positions, leaving rear areas exposed and only covered by the potential fire brigade work of armored divisions, was correct or that I will be presented with calamitous small encirclements all over the front line. Keep in mind that this strategy of focusing strength in the front will only be applied if I think the front is actually strong on a wide sector, denying the Soviets multi hex breakthroughs. If the strength is not there to prevent that, I will put more strength behind the lines to prevent eliminations of entire sectors of front. And again, either dig fall back positions, or be prepared to give up ground at fast pace. In any case I will try to refrain from subjecting my troops to a meat grinder. I have ground to give and lines to shorten. If necessary I can fall back AGN to the Peipus and shorten the line dramatically. I will probably have to do that as soon as AGS is forced to retreat as there will be more kilometers of front to cover then. Basically I feel shortening the lines of AGN is the only real strategic option left to the Wehrmacht, while putting out fires with Armored divisions in the meantime.

At the end of turn 7 the situation for the Luftwaffe is mixed. Fighter kommando is doing very well and losing very few planes. I have plenty of Messerschmitts and Focke Wulfs in the pool to sustain a long defensive campaign as long as my ace pilots don’t die. On the other hand, my Stuka force is all but depleted and will be pulled back to reform in Germany in turn 8. Most veteran Stuka pilots are dead and I have rookies nose diving straight for AAA formations.
Bomber kommando is doing OK, suffering a good deal of losses but they are for now sustainable. I am thinking of focusing my bombers to strike the Sturmovik plant in Moscow while I still can. The IL-2 Sturmoviks will become a huge factor later on, interdicting my retreating forces. I should have probably done this from turn 1 onwards, to cripple at least the Moscow part of Sturmovik production (no idea where the other plants are) or force him to keep fighter elements around there. Unfortunately the Luftwaffe does not possess long range escort planes (unless I am missing something) so any strategic strike can only be done at cities where the Soviets do not have fighter protection.

When I opened turn 7 and looked at the Smolensk sector I couldn't believe what I was seeing. The line near Smolensk is virtually intact!

At the end of turn 7, I have deployed a lot of armored divisions to shore up the line and a major crisis should be prevented. Areal recon shows he has moved some units to this sector to apply more pressure. In this sector I now only have a weak spot left between Vitebsk and Smolensk. 3rd Pz Army (the bright green colored units) was the weakest link in the entire German line from the start and it might come under pressure in the Soviet turn.

If he hits between Vitebsk and Smolensk it will be a problem, but I now have enough mobile reserves freed up to put out fires in almost any part of the lines of AGC.
Areal recon showed he moved a small Army towards Velikie Luki, so I committed my only infantry reinforcements into the line there to prevent multi hex breakthrough.

My only other worry spot at the moment is the original most western part of the Kursk bulge. I am very weak there but the area is flanked by the very strong Bryansk and Kharkov sectors. Especially around Kharkov I have room to give or strength to move out. I don’t want to vacate a river line with level 4 forts though.

The screenshot shows a counter attack that has a loss ratio that I would like to see more. I executed this attack to deny the Soviets an extra hex to execute a deliberate attack from, with the added bonus that it gave the Luftwaffe a chance to smack the Red Air Force in the face again.

In the Crimea I was about ready to eliminate the pocket that exists there at the start of the scenario. But the Soviets struck first and preempted it. I am now slowly falling back there, while I had units secure the rear, railways, and ports from turn 1, so I am not tooooo worried about being slapped by amphibious/airborne operations.

Finally let's look at some stats after 7 turns of play. This is all before any major push by my opponent.

I am bad at reading OOB numbers (comparing turn 2 vs. turn 7). All it tells me is that the Soviet armed forces are increasing in size, while the Germans are decreasing. My allies don't count, since they all sit on their ass not garissoning cities anyway.

Production numbers are actually interesting. Behold the miracle of logic that is called fascist economics. We are building tons of Messerschmitts while Focke Wulfs are way more effective. Erich Hartmann must have corrupted the industrialists with tales about how awesome the messerschmitt is. We keep producing stukas while THEY SUCK. The best part is the PzKw IIIn. It's an infantry tank and apparently no division commander wants them. But yet, we produce them in large numbers.

Luckily we are getting it right regarding Panthers. Rightly anticipating me throwing Panthers away in a useless slaughter, the fatherland is stuffing the pool with spare machines. Unfortunately, most panthers/tigers/StuG's are stuck in support units and with the game as it is in v 1.03, support units suck on the defence

Edit: rifle squad numbers seem barely readable. I have 31.5k ready squads atm.

Interesting read, I'm tired of all those 1941 blitzes. Let's see how the Axis fares in elastic defense.

Oh btw, I could use some tips since this is my first campaign. This game is currently at turn 12 and mud season is approching fast. Any definite do's and dont's during mud for the defending side?

Also, I assume freezing conditions affect the defensibility of river lines? (and do impassable hexsides become passable?)

Aditia your German numbers after 7 turns look great. Compare with the Excel table from my 43-45 GC game.

This goes to prove that with some balancing between fighting and retreating Germans can indeed keep their forces in relatively good shape. For how long, though, it remains to be seen.

As for the mud season... if the rest of the campaign for the Germans is careful balance between fighting and retreating, mud season is great time to just stop your retreats and hold a nice position till the mud lasts. My opponent in 43-45 is retreating in some sectors even during mud, he may have his reasons to do so, but I see none... (I am Soviet) I can't attack him during mud....

Great AAR, but there is a much better version of this campaign available (shameless plug!):

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Turn 8, end of turn.

My AGN reserve divisions are railing south. While I had hoped to be able to keep them in reserve in order to enable me to do some sort of move it looks like I will have to spread them out on the front and assign them to different armies to strengthen the line and relieve some frontline divisions that need a rest.

In the south the Soviets have started cracking my level 4 fort river line. Nothing major yet, but it will fall sooner or later. The highlighted battle shows how touch and go it is for him to breach my line.

In the screenshot you see the Kharkov sector and the northern edge of the Stalino sector. This is where breaches of my line are taking place.
Encircled in blue you see 48th Pz corps returning from the Smolensk sector. The front there is stabilized and I need my Panzers in the south where most of his mobile forces are.

Encircled in red you see hubris at work. Recon spots a build up of Soviet troop concentrations but I decide to ignore it and leave a weak spot in the line.

Turn 9, start

Turn 9 sees breakthroughs all over the place, nothing I can't contain, but it's all hands on deck now.

The breakthroughs are concentrated around Smolensk, Kharkov and Stalino.

Screenshot of the Smolensk sector. The breakthroughs here are not too dangerous, but might force me to give some ground. Luckily I have a bunch of reserve divisions railing through. I will derail a few to strengthen the line.

Around Kharkov the situation is much more dire. Remember what I said about hubris? Well he punched through alright, forcing me to abandon my strongest section of front and its fall back positions.

To make matters worse, encircled in red he also punched through near Sumy, which is serving as an anchor between AGC and AGS.

Encircled in blue I spot an opportunity. With 48th Panzer corps returning south I think I have enough strength to encircle and hold those breakthrough forces. I decide to commit to that. If it works out I will capture a nice number of useful t-34 tanks.

Turn 9 end, smolensk sector.

AGC manages to repulse the breakthroughs without giving ground. I do expose some divions to restore the line, but I feel that it is worth it at this stage. It is still a long ways till mud.
Encircled in grey you can notice that hostile breakthroughs also provide you with the opportunity to rout some mobile forces. Which should slow him down, if only by the losses in trucks.

Turn 9 end, Kharkov sector.

The breakthroughs around Kharkov were a little bit of a disaster, forcing me to abandon the entire position. With the amount of force he has here I will probably be withdrawing for a while.

Encircled in red you see my counter attack with the hope of capturing one of his guard mech corps. I think this looks about as strong as possible behind a river line. I have good hopes it will hold.

End of update

btw, tips for defending late war as germans in mud/snow/blizzard is still very welcome. I am particulalrly not sure how winter conditions affect river lines etc.

When it gets to Ice 10, major rivers are frozen. I believe any kind of ice freezes minor rivers. They are pretty much useless to me in my game as we are in the blizzard (January 44).

Be very selective on the attack. Those corps of his are so big they can eat you alive...not to mention if he has arty parks behind them.

Turn 10, before german moves

Ouch, the isolation of the 2 mech corps in the south did not hold and instead I lost half a Panzer Corps worth of combat elements when he freed them, including a lot of Panther tanks.

In the centre there are a few minor breakthroughs that I should be able to push back while routing some units. No more trying to isolate stuff unless I am absolutely positive it will hold.

Partisan attacks are largely under control by turn 10. Hopefully it stays that way while I repair the damage of the first turns.

After German moves the frontline in the center is restored while routing some units. In the South I do not reoccupy hexes that I lost on my riverline, I am not sticking my good units into the meat grinder again. I still have a solid line so he can have those 2 hexes. In the meanwhile I find a few more divisions of AGn that I rail south.

Divided by Army Group, situation at the moment is as following:

AGN: all quiet, lines are shortened and freed up divisions railing south
AGC:
- Smolensk sector: tough battle for the city in progress, situation under control
- Bryansk sector: Masses of soviet infantry and artillery are grinding their way through our lines. No hope of halting them, trying to slow them down, but it is costly. Wehrmacht is still strong here, should be able to continue fighting until end of summer.
- Kursk sector: Soviet high command as shifted some attention to our weak line. Reserves from both the Bryansk as the Kharkov sector are starting to get committed here.
AGS:
- Kharkov sector: The best the Red Army has to offer is now in pursuit of our forces that have now completely abandoned our initial line and are trying to dig up a new one. Battle for the city imminent, succes unlikely
- Stalino sector: Initial breaches of our river line have occured. Line holds for now, but will probably collapse before the end of summer weather. Measures should be taken to withdraw in good order.
Crimean Army: We have fallen back to Kerch, but still hold both sides of the straight. Digging in like mad men