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RE: what is WITE ?

Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 6:00 pm
by Aussiematto
ORIGINAL: redmarkus4

You lost 14 Pz Divs - jeez. That's gotta hurt!

+1 on the rest of your post.

actually I am not entirely correct, I lost 14 mobile divs -- I think 8 panzers and 6 motorised. Basically the entire 2nd Paz Army got totalled. Hurts seriously, but hell, I don't want a game that is just 'panzers to victory' - I can do that to the AI any time I like. I want to feel like the world is about to end, but still pull off intense play. I can't say too much about what I am planning (OPSEC since the game is live), but it's nice to juggle remaining armour in such a way as to cause grief and alarm to a player who has just brutalised an entire Pz Army. Course, his guards and cav are a serious threat. Dig in, mein cameraden! The soviet hordes are coming :).

RE: what is WITE ?

Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 6:11 pm
by cmill_MatrixForum
this is not an operational game really, it's on the scale of full campaign

Yes and no. The game as a whole is strategic, but within the strategic are any number operations taking place. This is what largely appeals to me and I find to be what makes the game operational. I forget where I read it, I do believe it was Alan Clark's 'Barbarossa' in which he defines the operational level of combat equivalent to divisional level.

Most importantly, control of units is divisional, hence, from my understanding and in my opinion, the game is operational. Of course, there may be others who can enlighten me on this as my sources are rather secondary.

I hope that all makes sense, I just got out of oral surgery, still a little groggy. :)

RE: what is WITE ?

Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 6:22 pm
by Aussiematto
I hope that all makes sense, I just got out of oral surgery, still a little groggy. :)

I want to play cmill , now, before the drugs wear off

RE: what is WITE ?

Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 6:30 pm
by cmill_MatrixForum
I want to play cmill , now, before the drugs wear off


Ha! I can assure you, I don't need drugs to lose a game.

RE: what is WITE ?

Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 6:44 pm
by herwin
ORIGINAL: redmarkus4

Sounds very impressive, but would you mind explaining that in standard English for silly old me?

All the games I know of use explicit integration through time. It seems natural, but it's unstable when exposed to noise. If there's an attractive state--like nil strength for units in GG's favourite model of combat--unrealistically high numbers of units will find themselves there over time.

RE: what is WITE ?

Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 6:52 pm
by Redmarkus5
ORIGINAL: herwin

ORIGINAL: redmarkus4

Sounds very impressive, but would you mind explaining that in standard English for silly old me?

All the games I know of use explicit integration through time. It seems natural, but it's unstable when exposed to noise. If there's an attractive state--like nil strength for units in GG's favourite model of combat--unrealistically high numbers of units will find themselves there over time.

Nope, sorry - I still don't get you :)

Try imagining you're talking to an idiot - what's the meaning of "explicit integration through time" in pub talk? Noise I understand from my wireless comms days [:D]

RE: what is WITE ?

Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 6:55 pm
by Redmarkus5
ORIGINAL: cmill
this is not an operational game really, it's on the scale of full campaign

Yes and no. The game as a whole is strategic, but within the strategic are any number operations taking place. This is what largely appeals to me and I find to be what makes the game operational. I forget where I read it, I do believe it was Alan Clark's 'Barbarossa' in which he defines the operational level of combat equivalent to divisional level.

Most importantly, control of units is divisional, hence, from my understanding and in my opinion, the game is operational. Of course, there may be others who can enlighten me on this as my sources are rather secondary.

I hope that all makes sense, I just got out of oral surgery, still a little groggy. :)

My simplistic understanding of the levels of decision-making goes like this:

1. Strategic - do we invade Russia in '41 or sit tight in Poland?

2. Operational - do we focus on Moscow or Leningrad or both?

3. Tactical - Right flanking or left flanking up that hill?

Obviously, there's a lot of grey in between each level.

RE: what is WITE ?

Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 7:19 pm
by herwin
ORIGINAL: redmarkus4

ORIGINAL: herwin

ORIGINAL: redmarkus4

Sounds very impressive, but would you mind explaining that in standard English for silly old me?

All the games I know of use explicit integration through time. It seems natural, but it's unstable when exposed to noise. If there's an attractive state--like nil strength for units in GG's favourite model of combat--unrealistically high numbers of units will find themselves there over time.

Nope, sorry - I still don't get you :)

Try imagining you're talking to an idiot - what's the meaning of "explicit integration through time" in pub talk? Noise I understand from my wireless comms days [:D]

If you want to simulate a turn, you can approximate f(t+dt) by f(t)+f'(t)*dt. dt is one turn. f'(t) is the slope of f measured at time t. This is called explicit integration. Or you can approximate it by f(t)+f'(t+dt)*dt. f'(t+dt) is the slope of f measured at time t+dt. That's called implicit integration. Or you can approximate it by f(t)+0.5*(f'(t)+f'(t+dt))*dt. That's Crank-Nicholson. Explicit integration is unstable--it tends to diverge from reality. Implicit integration is always stable, even when it shouldn't be. Crank-Nicholson is a compromise. Every game I know of uses explicit integration. Unless you keep them on the tracks somehow, they're likely to go off in weird and wonderful directions.

RE: what is WITE ?

Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 7:26 pm
by Jajusha
Doesn't really matter what you call it...could be a quantic distorted boson accelerated through a higgs field kind of wargame. It still makes enough concessions in the micromanaging department so that it's not appealing only to the hardcore fans, and it has enough depth so that hardcore wargamers still feel in charge of stuff.

RE: what is WITE ?

Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 4:33 am
by Redmarkus5
ORIGINAL: herwin

ORIGINAL: redmarkus4

ORIGINAL: herwin




All the games I know of use explicit integration through time. It seems natural, but it's unstable when exposed to noise. If there's an attractive state--like nil strength for units in GG's favourite model of combat--unrealistically high numbers of units will find themselves there over time.

Nope, sorry - I still don't get you :)

Try imagining you're talking to an idiot - what's the meaning of "explicit integration through time" in pub talk? Noise I understand from my wireless comms days [:D]

If you want to simulate a turn, you can approximate f(t+dt) by f(t)+f'(t)*dt. dt is one turn. f'(t) is the slope of f measured at time t. This is called explicit integration. Or you can approximate it by f(t)+f'(t+dt)*dt. f'(t+dt) is the slope of f measured at time t+dt. That's called implicit integration. Or you can approximate it by f(t)+0.5*(f'(t)+f'(t+dt))*dt. That's Crank-Nicholson. Explicit integration is unstable--it tends to diverge from reality. Implicit integration is always stable, even when it shouldn't be. Crank-Nicholson is a compromise. Every game I know of uses explicit integration. Unless you keep them on the tracks somehow, they're likely to go off in weird and wonderful directions.

Yes, that's what I thought you meant - just wanted to be sure! LOL

RE: what is WITE ?

Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 4:34 am
by Redmarkus5
ORIGINAL: Jajusha

Doesn't really matter what you call it...could be a quantic distorted boson accelerated through a higgs field kind of wargame. It still makes enough concessions in the micromanaging department so that it's not appealing only to the hardcore fans, and it has enough depth so that hardcore wargamers still feel in charge of stuff.

"Stuff" - now there's a word I can relate to :)

RE: what is WITE ?

Posted: Wed May 04, 2011 1:48 am
by hfarrish
I prefer to think of the equation X = f(bs-tr)2d + 4rth. Don't you agree?

RE: what is WITE ?

Posted: Wed May 04, 2011 5:12 am
by berthier
"If you want to simulate a turn, you can approximate f(t+dt) by f(t)+f'(t)*dt. dt is one turn. f'(t) is the slope of f measured at time t. This is called explicit integration. Or you can approximate it by f(t)+f'(t+dt)*dt. f'(t+dt) is the slope of f measured at time t+dt. That's called implicit integration. Or you can approximate it by f(t)+0.5*(f'(t)+f'(t+dt))*dt. That's Crank-Nicholson. Explicit integration is unstable--it tends to diverge from reality. Implicit integration is always stable, even when it shouldn't be. Crank-Nicholson is a compromise. Every game I know of uses explicit integration. Unless you keep them on the tracks somehow, they're likely to go off in weird and wonderful directions. "

Sorry, and I really dont mean to offend, but this is an entirely meaningless explanation to me and I assume to many others who haven't done higher maths...and I do have two degrees in science/health science and still have no idea what point you are trying to make. Perhaps an example of each case rather than a formula might help?

RE: what is WITE ?

Posted: Wed May 04, 2011 6:03 am
by herwin
ORIGINAL: berthier

"If you want to simulate a turn, you can approximate f(t+dt) by f(t)+f'(t)*dt. dt is one turn. f'(t) is the slope of f measured at time t. This is called explicit integration. Or you can approximate it by f(t)+f'(t+dt)*dt. f'(t+dt) is the slope of f measured at time t+dt. That's called implicit integration. Or you can approximate it by f(t)+0.5*(f'(t)+f'(t+dt))*dt. That's Crank-Nicholson. Explicit integration is unstable--it tends to diverge from reality. Implicit integration is always stable, even when it shouldn't be. Crank-Nicholson is a compromise. Every game I know of uses explicit integration. Unless you keep them on the tracks somehow, they're likely to go off in weird and wonderful directions. "

Sorry, and I really dont mean to offend, but this is an entirely meaningless explanation to me and I assume to many others who haven't done higher maths...and I do have two degrees in science/health science and still have no idea what point you are trying to make. Perhaps an example of each case rather than a formula might help?

Sorry. Suppose you have the situation on turn N--call it f(N)--and you want to do a game move, resulting in f(N+1) for turn N+1. So the change in the situation is f(N+1)-f(N), called delta f. You can define delta f forward based the situation on turn N, or you can work backwards from the situation on turn N+1. (Yes it works...) Ideally those are the same, but in a game, everything is approximate. There wouldn't be any problem if the change was a 'linear function' of f(N), but in reality, the change during a turn can be very non-linear, and you can get overshoot or undershoot. If you define delta f forward, you're doing explicit integration. If you define it backwards, you're doing implicit integration, and if you average the two, you're doing Crank-Nicholson. In the presence of non-linearity, explicit integration is often unstable (overshoots) and implicit integration is overly stable (undershoots). If you overshoot every turn, you eventually go off the rails. Every game I know of uses explicit integration and usually has to impose some sort of correction mechanism to keep things on the rails in the long term.

Overshooting occurs, for example, when you wipe out a unit. The losses beyond the strength of the unit are ignored. Yet, the costs to the other side are not. In reality, the battle would end without those excess costs and the unit winning would be available for recovery or to do some other task. Over hundreds of turns, it adds up.

Abstractly, implicit integration for a wargame would involve summing up the available things and proposing an optimal allocation to locations and units on the map perhaps in a few turns. Then working backwards from that allocation to work out the necessary moves and attacks for this turn. Throw in some randomness to see what happens. The idea is to create undershoot rather than overshoot. Ideally, you want neither, which is why Crank-Nicholson is probably best, despite its complexity.

RE: what is WITE ?

Posted: Wed May 04, 2011 6:39 am
by corbon
ORIGINAL: berthier

"If you want to simulate a turn, you can approximate f(t+dt) by f(t)+f'(t)*dt. dt is one turn. f'(t) is the slope of f measured at time t. This is called explicit integration. Or you can approximate it by f(t)+f'(t+dt)*dt. f'(t+dt) is the slope of f measured at time t+dt. That's called implicit integration. Or you can approximate it by f(t)+0.5*(f'(t)+f'(t+dt))*dt. That's Crank-Nicholson. Explicit integration is unstable--it tends to diverge from reality. Implicit integration is always stable, even when it shouldn't be. Crank-Nicholson is a compromise. Every game I know of uses explicit integration. Unless you keep them on the tracks somehow, they're likely to go off in weird and wonderful directions. "

Sorry, and I really dont mean to offend, but this is an entirely meaningless explanation to me and I assume to many others who haven't done higher maths...and I do have two degrees in science/health science and still have no idea what point you are trying to make. Perhaps an example of each case rather than a formula might help?

My guess...
Game designer's need game data to check things, but they can't spend all the time playing the game out to get varied data to check various situations. So they 'simulate' game results at various stages using formulae to get approximate results quickly that they can use to check how they think the game will turn out.

"If you want to simulate a turn, you can approximate f(t+dt) by f(t)+f'(t)*dt. dt is one turn. f'(t) is the slope of f measured at time t. This is called explicit integration.
f(t+dt) is the function (or game state) at the turn desired. t is a known turn result, and dt is the number of additional turns required to get to the unknown turn result.
For example, you can simulate the results of turn 30 using the results of turn 20 + 10 extra turns worth of functioning. t=20, dt =10, the result at turn 30 will be simulated by taking the result of turn 20 and adding 10 estimated (the estimation is what f is all about) turn results to that.
The estimation process here is done by looking at turn results graphically (or mathematically) and finding the slope of the graph (f'(t)). For example, if a german infantry div lost 5% of its strength during turn 20, the estimation is that it will lose 5% of its strength in each of the following turns (vastly oversimplifying here). So the division's state at turn 30 will be estimated as its state at turn 20 (f(t)) plus the slope it was on at turn 20 (f'(t)=-5%) multiplied by the number of turns (dt=10). The division will have lost 50% strength in 10 turns (or be at .95^10 strength = approximately 60% strength, depending on your model).
This nearly always produces 'wrong' results (diverges from reality, or is unstable) because every existing result includes some random factor, or noise. So that measured 5% losses should maybe have been 4.2% on average, but the Russians got a good roll or something. This minor fault in the estimation process multiplies itself out each additional turn, making a bigger and bigger fault, not to mention introducing additional errors (after losing only 42% strength instead of 50% strength the division is fighting over 20% stronger, so it's current calculations are now 20% off, and they've been off all the way through).
That's explicit integration whatsit.

Implicit integration is exactly the same except you use the 'end' slope (at t+dt, or turn 30) instead of the 'start' slope (at turn 20). I don't remember why it's stable, but it doesn't give any more accurate results because the end slope is just as affected by a single random noise variable. Maybe the end slope is 3.8% loss (true average value 4.2 remember), so instead of over calculating losses all the way we will under calculate the losses all the way.

The Crank-Nicholson method uses an estimated average slope by adding together the starting slope and the finishing slope and dividing by 2 (multiplying by 0.5). Hence it is more likely to give better results because 2 random noise variables have a higher chance of canceling each other out than multiplying each other. 0.5(5+3.8)= 4.4% losses used in the calculation - closer than either other value.
It won't always be closer, but it usually will, and done many times in multiple calculations (ie that 10 turn break will usually be done 1 turn at a time) it will be closer very much more often than not - the distribution of an average of two values is much tighter around the mean than the distribution of individual values.

I've done my best to forget this stuff over the last 20 years, so sorry if there re some inaccuracies there but that's what it looks like to me in as layman's terms as I can think of..


RE: what is WITE ?

Posted: Wed May 04, 2011 6:50 am
by herwin
ORIGINAL: corbon

ORIGINAL: berthier

"If you want to simulate a turn, you can approximate f(t+dt) by f(t)+f'(t)*dt. dt is one turn. f'(t) is the slope of f measured at time t. This is called explicit integration. Or you can approximate it by f(t)+f'(t+dt)*dt. f'(t+dt) is the slope of f measured at time t+dt. That's called implicit integration. Or you can approximate it by f(t)+0.5*(f'(t)+f'(t+dt))*dt. That's Crank-Nicholson. Explicit integration is unstable--it tends to diverge from reality. Implicit integration is always stable, even when it shouldn't be. Crank-Nicholson is a compromise. Every game I know of uses explicit integration. Unless you keep them on the tracks somehow, they're likely to go off in weird and wonderful directions. "

Sorry, and I really dont mean to offend, but this is an entirely meaningless explanation to me and I assume to many others who haven't done higher maths...and I do have two degrees in science/health science and still have no idea what point you are trying to make. Perhaps an example of each case rather than a formula might help?

My guess...
Game designer's need game data to check things, but they can't spend all the time playing the game out to get varied data to check various situations. So they 'simulate' game results at various stages using formulae to get approximate results quickly that they can use to check how they think the game will turn out.

"If you want to simulate a turn, you can approximate f(t+dt) by f(t)+f'(t)*dt. dt is one turn. f'(t) is the slope of f measured at time t. This is called explicit integration.
f(t+dt) is the function (or game state) at the turn desired. t is a known turn result, and dt is the number of additional turns required to get to the unknown turn result.
For example, you can simulate the results of turn 30 using the results of turn 20 + 10 extra turns worth of functioning. t=20, dt =10, the result at turn 30 will be simulated by taking the result of turn 20 and adding 10 estimated (the estimation is what f is all about) turn results to that.
The estimation process here is done by looking at turn results graphically (or mathematically) and finding the slope of the graph (f'(t)). For example, if a german infantry div lost 5% of its strength during turn 20, the estimation is that it will lose 5% of its strength in each of the following turns (vastly oversimplifying here). So the division's state at turn 30 will be estimated as its state at turn 20 (f(t)) plus the slope it was on at turn 20 (f'(t)=-5%) multiplied by the number of turns (dt=10). The division will have lost 50% strength in 10 turns (or be at .95^10 strength = approximately 60% strength, depending on your model).
This nearly always produces 'wrong' results (diverges from reality, or is unstable) because every existing result includes some random factor, or noise. So that measured 5% losses should maybe have been 4.2% on average, but the Russians got a good roll or something. This minor fault in the estimation process multiplies itself out each additional turn, making a bigger and bigger fault, not to mention introducing additional errors (after losing only 42% strength instead of 50% strength the division is fighting over 20% stronger, so it's current calculations are now 20% off, and they've been off all the way through).
That's explicit integration whatsit.

Implicit integration is exactly the same except you use the 'end' slope (at t+dt, or turn 30) instead of the 'start' slope (at turn 20). I don't remember why it's stable, but it doesn't give any more accurate results because the end slope is just as affected by a single random noise variable. Maybe the end slope is 3.8% loss (true average value 4.2 remember), so instead of over calculating losses all the way we will under calculate the losses all the way.

The Crank-Nicholson method uses an estimated average slope by adding together the starting slope and the finishing slope and dividing by 2 (multiplying by 0.5). Hence it is more likely to give better results because 2 random noise variables have a higher chance of canceling each other out than multiplying each other. 0.5(5+3.8)= 4.4% losses used in the calculation - closer than either other value.
It won't always be closer, but it usually will, and done many times in multiple calculations (ie that 10 turn break will usually be done 1 turn at a time) it will be closer very much more often than not - the distribution of an average of two values is much tighter around the mean than the distribution of individual values.

I've done my best to forget this stuff over the last 20 years, so sorry if there re some inaccuracies there but that's what it looks like to me in as layman's terms as I can think of..


Pretty good. +1

RE: what is WITE ?

Posted: Wed May 04, 2011 7:39 am
by JJKettunen
ORIGINAL: herwin
The mesh (time-space ratio) scale is almost the same as OCS, which is the best manual simulation of the operational level available. The stacking is a bit off--a corps attack frontage was about 8 kilometres, but that might not be that important, particularly as two hexes can concentrate on one.

That brings up a question: If there are superb boardgame designs out there, why not computerize them to a cat free environment? Instead we got all of these fancy looking operational games, with superbly detailed TOEs, that ultimately produce just horse manure.

RE: what is WITE ?

Posted: Wed May 04, 2011 8:04 am
by herwin
ORIGINAL: Keke

ORIGINAL: herwin
The mesh (time-space ratio) scale is almost the same as OCS, which is the best manual simulation of the operational level available. The stacking is a bit off--a corps attack frontage was about 8 kilometres, but that might not be that important, particularly as two hexes can concentrate on one.

That brings up a question: If there are superb boardgame designs out there, why not computerize them to a cat free environment? Instead we got all of these fancy looking operational games, with superbly detailed TOEs, that ultimately produce just horse manure.

Investigate Vassal.

RE: what is WITE ?

Posted: Wed May 04, 2011 8:24 am
by JJKettunen
ORIGINAL: herwin

ORIGINAL: Keke

ORIGINAL: herwin
The mesh (time-space ratio) scale is almost the same as OCS, which is the best manual simulation of the operational level available. The stacking is a bit off--a corps attack frontage was about 8 kilometres, but that might not be that important, particularly as two hexes can concentrate on one.

That brings up a question: If there are superb boardgame designs out there, why not computerize them to a cat free environment? Instead we got all of these fancy looking operational games, with superbly detailed TOEs, that ultimately produce just horse manure.

Investigate Vassal.

Cheers!

RE: what is WITE ?

Posted: Wed May 04, 2011 9:31 am
by BletchleyGeek
ORIGINAL: Keke
ORIGINAL: herwin
The mesh (time-space ratio) scale is almost the same as OCS, which is the best manual simulation of the operational level available. The stacking is a bit off--a corps attack frontage was about 8 kilometres, but that might not be that important, particularly as two hexes can concentrate on one.
That brings up a question: If there are superb boardgame designs out there, why not computerize them to a cat free environment? Instead we got all of these fancy looking operational games, with superbly detailed TOEs, that ultimately produce just horse manure.

I don't read herwin's remark as a criticism of WiTE, or computer wargames in general. Both boardgames and computer wargames have bugs either on the rules or the programming, which mediate our appreciation of the work behind them. I don't know why The Gamers - OCS authors - haven't considered a computer adaptation of their OCS or TCS systems, to be honest, but probably the issue has been raised more than once on consimworld or other forums.

Regarding detailed TOE's. A coarse grained 1:1 modeling of unit elements doesn't really guarantee a good simulation. You need also a good simulation engine that effectively uses all that info - rules abstracting combat, supply, etc. - so that it the computations required don't take hours of CPU time and one gets likely outcomes from the simulation.

I sincerely think that WiTE is the closest thing an OCS fan can get on a computer. For this I thank the devs and testers: this is a wonderful product. "Wonderful" doesn't mean "perfect", but WiTE certainly raises the bar.

The perception some have had with WiTE being more a "game" than a simulation has several causes, many of them related to bugs on either the rules or the implementation of replacements mechanics. Operational attrition - due to movement - has been laughable until 1.04, where several changes have been implemented that should partially model the staggering, ebb and flow of operational war that OCS captures so well. These changes perhaps could possibly be complemented with other that explicitly link unit supply level and offensive capability, perhaps not.

Areas that still need some work are FOW (DL), the air model and effects of "isolation".

The Air model just doesn't seem to me to make much sense: in some places feels like being hardwired to produce historically plausible outcomes, in other places is just out of whack. But it has already been acknowledged that it needs work and that there's work being done on that.

Regarding FOW, I think that CV's aren't uncertain enough. They're just an approximation of actual combat effectiveness, I know. But it feels to me it's a too good approximation. I don't know if DL influences on the CV's we see for enemy units, but probably should, distorting the perception one has of enemy units, not only CV but also it's type, reporting for instance a wrong type. I also think the info we get from air recon is too reliable, or it is raising DL too much. And finally, very much like in WiTP, enemy losses should be subject to some degree of FOW (perhaps only "killed" inf, arty and tanks should be reported, currently I understand they show also "disabled" or "damaged" inf, arty and tanks, stuff that eventually comes back).

Finally, there have been made several observations regarding the effects of isolation not "scaling up well". It's not the same thing an encirclement encompassing one single hex than one which covers an area comparable in size, population and resources to several small Western European countries, especially when plenty of supply is stockpiled in isolated pop centers and HQ's.

Many people have been complaining for long about how hard is to obtain an ahistorical Axis decisive victory in 1941 or 1942 (or in other words, kill the Soviet Union in a one year campaign). Even in WiTE 1.00 it was extremely hard, perhaps impossible. I think that's a witness to how sound WiTE modeling actually is (it's very sound, btw).

EDIT: Spelling, FOW.