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Gentlemen, your discussions give much pause for thought. Your insights are appreciated.
I neither want to do a full Sir Robin nor commit valuable forces too early. My inclination is building a series of speed bumps. With any luck, and supply from Palembang and Soerabaja, Singapore can hold well into March.
Since I'm using a somewhat modified version of Sarduakar's initial set-up, I will have the Aussie 1st Div placed forward at Alice Springs in Oz to move on Darwin if threatened. The backside of that maneuver is it leaves the rest of Oz pretty much undefended, as I also plan to move the entire 30th Aussie Brigade to PM to prevent a quick Nipponese coup there. (Terapo is also somewhat of an open flank with the ability to build size 7 airfield.) I suppose that means a rapid build-up of US forces in OZ is necessary.
I have decided to leave Singapore forces as is, consigning the two Aussie brigades to their heroic place in digital history. The PP saved can well be used elsewhere.
Northern Sumatra is a problem in itself. With no rail connections, the forces stationed there are destined to wither on the vine. I've decided to have them stand at Medan. True, Medan is a flat area with no defensive bonuses, but it is also a 200 oil port with a refinery, which will provide it with supply in the same hex (gamey, I know). Perhaps the engineers can provide a bit of mayhem when Tojo comes knocking. Palembang will be defended with anything I can move in there, but certainly no 'Fortress". Again, I trust the engineer units will provide some mayhem to engage the future residents. It's a toss up whether to stand at Batavia or Soerabaja. Soerabaja provides supply in hex due to its oil and refineries, but is in undefensible terrain. Batavia is a defensible urban hex, but will be isolated from supply. Perhaps a stand at both, possibly splitting Nippon forces, and delaying any post action refit?
The only Dutch forces I plan to spend PP on are the 3 fine heavy AA units, which I will move to cover Darwin.
These are my humble thoughts?

Darwin ought to be a death trap if you're facing a competent Japanese opponent.

AA belong in fortress hexes that are (1) sure to draw a sustained enemy bombing campaign, and (2) can hold for a long time. Singapore fits these requirements. Usually, some of the Assam/region bases will (Chittagong and Akyab being two possibilities). Outside of those two, though, it's pretty much impossible to predict good places to place AA. The game will dictate that by what vectors you opponent chooses. One possiblity is to concentrate AA at important forward ports against a KB raid - Colombo, Sydney, Auckland and Pearl Harbor being good condidates.

Since I have played both sides a few times, the importance of Singapore to Japan is the large port and the ability to have a quicker turn around time in using troops. Without Singpore, your base of operations has to be either Saigon or/and Cam Ranh Bay. The lower rates of loading and unloading at these two ports plus the transit time vs operating from Singapore can be significant. A skill that a Japanese player has to learn, and I have to improve mine, is keeping a high tempo of operations in the SRA for the first few months. Having Singapore makes your Japanese logistics easier and your operations go smoothly.

Like others have stated, the two Aussie brigades are important in preventing the "Mersing Gambit" from happening. I was able to do this in my last game as Japan and capture Singapore by the end of Dec '41, but was still too inexperienced to fully exploit it.

Some bases are more important to deny to the enemy than they are to you. Port Moresby is the classic example of this.

CR, I'm playing the AI, and I expect it to play out on somewhat 'historical' lines. I'm playing the Dec 8th scenario because it gives me the Repulse and POW intact, allowing me to weild an offensive punch. (Not into mods, although 'Da Babes' appears interesting.)
Play PBEM..........! Ha! I'm a bit too long in tooth to even expect I'd ever finish a game. And I've read a few AAR's.....you guys play wild and wooly. Way too Dodge City for me; poker and gunfights are fine to read about, but Admiral Wyatt Earp I'm not.
Don't get me wrong, I love reading the AAR's, especially your latest against Jon III. Truth is, I'm way to 'history' oriented to ever be good against a real human.
However, I do pick up a lot of insights and game mechanics from the AAR's. And Nemo just blows my mind. Need a dictionary and a hot Google finger when I read him.
I owe you folks who write and contribute to the AAR's a big thanks for some great entertainment.
Now, go out there and hurt something!
Regards

Bullwinkle ought to post now his feelings about AI vs. PBEM. He was a dedicated AI for years and is currently involved in his first PBEM. I think he's really, REALLY enjoying the PBEM, but I also think he's fairminded and still a big supporter of games vs. the AI. But overall, I think he'll tell you that the level of excitement is dramatically higher in a PBEM game.