Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland

[gingerbread]

Due to the way the '42+ ARM multiplier works, you should move ARM factories in batches of 4, 7 or 10 (best).

Also, due to damage to moved factories, it's best to move all at a site in one go. This is impossible for Stalino & Tula, so for these I think it's best to first move 9 (S) & 5 (T) in one turn and then the remaining 20 in one go for each.

This all means that you must plan ahead since there is only room in the rail cap for 1 major move per turn. So no more 2 pts form here and then 2 pts from there. Instead, move the current turns major per your plan and then see what you have left.

Did I mention that you need an evacuation plan?

[Bozo_the_Clown]

Looking at this map, I would probably take at least one Panzer Corps from AGN and push through that giant hole at Velikie Luki. He can flip the entire area on turn 4 and then make a giant push towards Moscow. Rail repair towards VL can be extremely fast if you focus on the north. He can still take Leningrad with one Panzer Corps and the infantry.

Regarding the U2-VS factories. I always keep them because most Axis players don't set their fighters on night mission or constantly move their air bases. You get free bombing runs and it really adds up. But against Sapper this might be pointless.

There is a great factory evac guide from Walloc in the forum. You should read this and follow his advice.

[Tom Hunter]

gingerbread any experienced wargamer would know that the soviets need to evac factories, and even a bad gamer would have some sort of a plan. I moved the small factories this turn because they are under threat and because I think that part of Sappers strategy is to reduce Soviet production by capping a lot of the factories in the South. I'm currently using the guide posted in the war room. The point about Stalino and Tula is helpful, they are both turns from needing to move.

Part of my evacuation plan is to move the factories that Sapper is likely to capture. I'll post some thoughts on that next.

[Tom Hunter]

When he advertised for the game Sapper22 said he had a strategy he wanted to try. This post is about that strategy, it comes out of gingerbreads question about evacuation planning, because part of my planning is in reaction to Sapper’s moves.
It’s looking more and more like Sapper plans to push the South and cut off the Caucausus, but Moscow is still a real possibility. He has two major concentrations of troops, plus a smaller group going for Leningrad.
The map is from the end of Sapper’s T3, to see the end of my T3 look at the posts above.
Looking at the arrows on the map:
1) He goes for Crimea, then the Caucasus, I think this is unlikely.
2) Is a better option, because he still cuts off the Caucasus, but he maintains strategic options much longer, since he can turn North at any time. This keeps the Soviets off balance until a turn after the fall of Kharkov.
3) If he pushes East to Kursk he can come at Moscow from the West and South. This would be very hard for me to stop.
4) Works with 3
5) Works a bit better with 3 I think, because he can also threaten Leningrad even more.

To counter these options the troops near Kiev are retreating more in the direction of Kursk than of Kharkov. I’m planning to pull Leningrad T4 and then a Southern city T5 but might reverse that based on Sappers T4.
Bozo you are right about the hole at Veliki Luki, I made a conscious decision to focus my resources in certain places and lightly screen others.

[A game]

I think you have the right idea here Tom, defending forward after being crippled in the south and losing so many divs is suicide, best to just fall back, wait for more units and let the logistics do there work in slowing the german advance until you can create a proper defensive line.

It is a pity to give up the Velikie Luki area so easily though, its a great spot to annoy the germans...

[M60A3TTS]

Tom, regarding factory evacuation, I am not sure what war room guide you refer to. I suggest that you read this to understand what gingerbread is getting at. tm.asp?m=2945409. The arms multiplier works in such away that you benefit in certain circumstances based on # of factories moved. If you do it wrong, and you're not doing it wrong- yet, near as I can tell, you can negate the multiplier bonus from '42 on.

[Toidi]

In the south it is always Kharkov and Stalino. Taking those early is essential for the industry in those places (and it is hard to defend against them being taken early). Additionally, going south and taking Rostov towns has massive advantage of AGS splitting which improves command ability. Kursk has no real industry; There are also significant supply issues preventing a move into that area early. Supply in the south (especially around Stalino) is much better.

In the north it is Leningrad, Moscow & Tula. Tula is easy and if captured early it yields a lot of arm points. Moscow is difficult - there are significant issues to keep the troops supplied in that area until late August - early September. You need to keep Moscow garrisoned at all times to prevent a 50mp division raiding it. Moscow is doable in September once the rail is close, but generally enough Soviet troops need to be encircled (think 2.5 millions+) to take well defended Moscow. Leningrad will fall once it is only supplied via lake. The task is to make it fall as late as possible - and with as little losses (encircled troops) as possible. If Leningrad falls early, all valuable troops from the north are shifted to Moscow and Moscow is hard to defend.

Sapper is a good player, good luck...

[Gabriel B.]

If panzer grup 4 is not by turn 5 around VOLOCHECK and panzer group 3 around Kalinin, you should consider yourself lucky.

[Tom Hunter]

Sapper continues a hard push South. I’m very glad I moved factories out last turn, though somewhat surprised he did not take Kiev. Outside of the big pocket Soviet casualties were light in T4, especially in the South where Sapper and I share an enthusiasm for avoiding each other’s armies. His recon says a lot about where he is going. For the most part my plan is to have those places lightly screened when he gets there.

The big change is the Germans are starting to run up against some kind of limits, Sapper22 could not grab Kiev and stick with his plan to drive into the Dnieper bend. More on this in the North.

Any apparent troop concentrations on this map are an accident (see not an army) and are more likely to be HQs and airbases that are driving east as fast as they can. I do intend to defend the Crimea, and have started a line at Stalino.

[Tom Hunter]

In the North Sapper advances 5 hexes towards Smolensk, which is slightly faster than I would like, but only surrounds one division there. When you see three battle marks in a row that is one pnz division chasing a soviet rifle division. Pretty much the same happens on the road from Pskov to Leningrad, he bounces a division from the first fort and chases it two or three hexes to the second fort. He does manage to isolate two division on the Leningrad front.

He does not go for Veliki Luki, which is what I expected, I left it because I had to, but I was kind of hoping that Sapper would get the urge to drive panzers into swamp. He either never had the urge or resisted it.
German T4 went about as I was hoping, no big encirlements and the retreat was orderly. The next big danger is the German infantry catching up to the panzers, I need stronger defense lines by then, and I have to slow his overall rate of advance, he is 22 hexes from Moscow now, so 5 a turn is too fast.

Looking at the two maps its possible Sapper will swing South to catch the troops near Kiev, but its more likely he will continue to push the center for a turn. Sapper is very accomplished operationally, but he is also good at positioning himself to keep his strategic options open.
To keep my defense effective I have to cover the approaches to Moscow, and prevent him from creating another major pocket by driving South with army group center.

[Toidi]

After Smolensk is passed, any quick advance in the centre much relies on the HQ buildup, at least till rail catch up (still, even with rail, only rested or air supplied divisions may get 40+ mp, otherwise it will be high 20 - low 30 range). Same in the south - he may be just in range of HQ buildup with division which did not cross the river. Once the river is crossed, quite some issues with supplies are present (again once river is crossed expect max around 30 mp for non-rested, non-air supplied units and units which did not have hq buildup previous turn). Best supply situation is in the north around Leningrad area, but there is also the best defensive terrain there. Though in Leningrad 30-40 mp are common for mobile divisions.

Sapper aims at getting industry in Dnetropetrovsk (if there is any, if not he may ignore it for a while), than Kharkov, than Stalino. Do not think that any defensive lines will stop Sapper for too long - they will stop tanks (maybe), but not infantry. Garrison Kiev - the rail depots there are significant - and every turn you get them on-line it is probably 10000 rail points. Well worth a lost infantry division (Sapper will probably attack it without encircling anyway, just because of those rail points).

In evacuation I would ignore heavy industry and vehicles and evacuate armaments; possibly I would get a single point of any tanks/aircraft production out of those towns in the south (those which do not stop being produced soon and which do not upgrade). If you are almost certain that Moscow will fall,, you can get the critical industry out too - those planes there are quite cheap to evac, and now is good time for them to recover; you will need full swing airforce in '42 - in '41 you mainly need fighters and u2 night planes; those level bombers you have are generally sufficient, tactical bombers need to be used sparingly (perhaps in the night mode only) and manually kept at high morale, so their experience will go up. Generally, you need to do a lot transfer into national reserve and back to keep the planes morale high. Remember that your planes are fighting mostly 99/99 German fighters - and the German planes are a bit better than yours. So to be successful, you need numbers (think 100 soviets vs 20 German planes) and morale/exp as high as possible (you need to aim at least at 50, 60 is nice, anything more is great).

If you evacuate enough arm, you can build a very strong infantry heavy army later on. If you lose more than 80 arm points in '41 (at 50 you may start having issues, at 100 issues are severe) you will need to be very careful what kind of units you build and maybe intentionally reduce your army size, so the TOE upgrades will not cripple your armaments pool... In my opinion when your armaments are tight it is better to have 6-7 million army at 100% TOE and high morale than 8-9 millions at 60-70% TOE and not that high morale.

Still, the major goal for you in '41 is to preserve your army. If you lose too many units early, the Germans will have local superiority in numbers, when that happens, more encirclements follows, so you lose more men and so on... Also, it is very important to keep your units at as high morale as possible. Remember that if you cut off German mobile units such that HQ is not in range and they cannot trace supply, they are almost certain to lose 1 morale point due to being in bad supply. If you successfully attack them, they will lose 1 or 2 morale points. That applies only to successful mobile units of course, which are above national morale... but in Sapper case, almost all of them should be above NM. Also, attacking tank divisions is priority over attacking other units, as tank divisions need tanks which are always in short supply for Germans. Other units need only armaments.

Finally, be very, very careful about your cavalry. Each cavalry unit is worth 3-4 infantry divisions in terms of armaments (those cavalry squadrons are really expensive to build). Note that cavalry, unlike infantry, once destroyed will not get back as empty shell. Still, it is worth to risk cavalry when you can cut off several German units. It is not worth to use them as speed bumps or front-line units - use infantry instead...

Finally, against mobile units defend on every river - river crossing with mobile units is very expensive if the hex is in enemy zone of control and attacking over a river is both expensive in terms of mp and bear severe penalties. As Germans, mp-wise - it is almost always better to go around to land bridge than assaulting over a river.

Good luck,
T.

[Tom Hunter]

Toidi you are confirming what I am thinking about Sappers strategy. Kill a lot of units early, and destroy the armaments production so the Red Army never really comes into existence. To date I’ve put a lot of rail into moving arm factories, that is starting to look smarter.
Your points about defensive lines are well known, there is nothing in the Soviet army that can stop the German infantry at this time.

I am taking a long time on this turn, as its becoming time to start optimizing armies.

The screenshot shows my finished move in Leningrad. Some key hexes have two units in them I am hoping that 15,000 men in a L1 fort behind a river will do better than 8000 guys out in the open. Though really I am hoping that the screen slows Sappers Pnz enough so they are restricted to hasty attacks T5, by T6 many of those hexes will have level 1 and 2 forts with 2 or 3 units in them, and armor in reserve.

Northwest front has the left flank commanded by Vatutin (inf 7) 27th army is west, and 28th east, each with inf 6 generals. Support is still kind of weak over all, but not too bad for early July. A second stronger line is forming a bit to the north around the three forts. My biggest concern is the concentration south of lake Ilmen, its not enough to stop the panzers and I am afraid I could be outflanked to the south. So I am going to put more troops near Vyshny Volochek, I may even pull troops from the South by rail.

If I weaken the South it does not hurt me, because I plan to run anyway, you cannot get weaker than nothing. I want Sapper to punch an empty bag. At the same time, if I hold Leningrad more strongly I can delay the factory evacuation there an move more factories in the South. This would cause serious trouble for Sappers plan to win by destroying my ability to rebuild the Red Army.

[mktours]

Great AAR!
Thanks for the sharing. very impressive work.

[Tom Hunter]

@mktours thanks. I find writing about the game forces me to think before I move, often a good thing.

In the North I’m continuing to dig in and organize. Moscow is starting to put army groups into the field, my plan is to have Western Front reform on the northern approach, with Stavaka and some other front HQ covering the central, and Bryansk the South. I’m going to make the western air command into a strong force to contest the air over Moscow as well. As an experiment I put a bunch of I-15 fighter units into the national reserve and put them on auto upgrade, I want to see if they will upgrade to modern fighters without forcing me to spend AP.

I mentioned a concern that Sapper would go South of lake Ilmen and cut off Leningrad, I suspect that would be very tempting to him, especially after his successful pocketing in the South. I put Rossakovsky with a bunch of armor and cavalry behind the screening force a the lake. I think it’s a good place for me to fight, as I have a lot of depth to work with and it would be difficult for Sapper to pocket the troops. We will see what he does.

In front of Moscow I pulled back again there is no real target for Sapper to pocket, I made sure he will have to burn a lot of mps to advance, the zocs interlock three units deep, and there are stopping forces behind those. It will be interesting to see if its enough, or if he can break out again, inspite of his now long supply line and my improved defense.
I put two forts in near Moscow to boost the defenses at the land bridges. I am curious what people think of this, I am reluctant to spend AP on forts, but these seemed like a necessary gap filler.

[821Bobo]

The defense in front of Moscow is unnecessarily deep. You should rather cover the flanks.

btw. Who is Rossakovsky?

[Tom Hunter]

I put 11 divisions into the Crimea because its about to get cut off. I am hoping that this is enough to make Sapper go elsewhere with his armor, and that they army there will get to fill out and grow stronger while Sapper brings infantry up. Then I may just pull everything out by boat.

Further North I put garrisons in Denepropetrovosk and Poltava in the hopes that Sapper will push for them thinking he can take the factories before I evacuate them. In fact they are already gone.
I left troops in Kiev because I did not want to abandon it completely, I expect Sapper will smash them in T5, but maybe not until T6, he needs to keep his infantry moving in behind his armor to succeed, and Kiev is a distraction from that.

Over all I am trying to get the right balance of delay and low losses in T5. Sapper is advancing very quickly, and is 15, 19 or even 24 hexes from his rail head. He is not very concentrated because of the need to grab territory. This is smart of him, but if I get my deployment right it also means its difficult for him to encircle units.

In T4 I moved armament factories as follows: 4 from Denepetrovosk each to Gorky, Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk, bringing all three cities from 6 factories to 10. If I understand correctly this will boost each city by 3 in December 41. Moved 3 from Poltava to Molotov, bringing Molotov to 7 factories. 3 from Poltava to Vologda bringing Vologda to 4. Armaments is 355, down 3 from T3. To date Sapper has not captured much in terms of Armaments.

Axis have lost 67094 men, 481 guns and 622 AFVs, Soviets have lost 1227375 men, 15871 guns and 8667 avfs.
I have 4.5 million men, 41,000 guns and 5800 planes, Germany has 3.4 million men, 34,000 guns and 2900 afvs. Axis allies add another 1.7 million men, 13,000 guns and 600 tanks. Soviet losses will continue to climb dramatically as the great Southern pocket gets eliminated.

[hfarrish]

Crimea is a waste of men to defend - you should hope he goes there. Just one man's opinion after many games, but there just isn't much worth defending there and you definitely need the divisions elsewhere. It's tempting since it is eminently defendable, but if he wants to take it he still will, and if he doesn't you will just have wasted some men.

[Bozo_the_Clown]

Finally, be very, very careful about your cavalry. Each cavalry unit is worth 3-4 infantry divisions in terms of armaments (those cavalry squadrons are really expensive to build). Note that cavalry, unlike infantry, once destroyed will not get back as empty shell. Still, it is worth to risk cavalry when you can cut off several German units. It is not worth to use them as speed bumps or front-line units - use infantry instead...

Interesting post Toidi. I don't have that much experience with the game but I'm using cavalry to surround and rout Axis units. The Axis player usually doesn't have a solid line so there are lots of places to attack. This way you can rip some interesting holes into the front. Also, it often takes more then one turn for the routed unit to rally. The downside is that I often loose more cavalry then I should.

[Toidi]

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

Further North I put garrisons in Denepropetrovosk and Poltava in the hopes that Sapper will push for them thinking he can take the factories before I evacuate them. In fact they are already gone.

In T4 I moved armament factories as follows: 4 from Denepetrovosk each to Gorky, Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk, bringing all three cities from 6 factories to 10. If I understand correctly this will boost each city by 3 in December 41.

1. It is visible for axis how much industry you have in each town.
2. I generally tend to evacuate differently. Think that each turn arm is not producing due to damage is a lost turn. As such I tend to evacuate each town fully. Also, I think (but I am not 100% sure) that the industry evacuated is not added to industry in town already. As such the calculations may be 1.3*4 (i.e. 5) + 1.3*6 (i.e. 7) giving 12 , not 1.3*10 giving 13. As I am not sure about that - you either need to do experiment yourself or ask someone in the know (Morvael may be the best source as he has access to the code). I think that they are calculated separately, as otherwise everyone would evacuate to a single town as much as possible, to avoid any troubles.

[SigUp]

You are right Toidi, evacuated factories do NOT add up.