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RE: Learned an Important Lesson Today Regarding Nuclear Weapons Use

Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2016 5:06 am
by NakedWeasel
I have a related question; In a cold war scenario I am designing I am trying to determine the most realistic way to gradually escalate to a full-blown, world-ending nuclear exchange. Understand, it's not the goal of the scenario to get to that point, but rather to use that final event as the realistic result of not de-escalating the conflict from the brink of nuclear holocaust.

Here's the setting: 1987 Western Germany, North Central Europe. NATO/France versus the Soviet Union/WARPACT. Premise: In this alternative timeline, decades of hatred and bitterness between East and West has continued unabated. There have been no significant peace accords or treaties between the US/NATO and the Soviet Union/Warsaw Pact since SALT II. Things are really bad. ;) During the most recent REFORGER-style exercises in West Germany and the North Sea, Soviet reconnaissance aircraft make dozens of blatant incursions some distance into Western airspace. NATO fighters are finally ordered to shoot them down. The action results in a huge instantaneous furball along the border region, with dozens of aircraft on either side being destroyed. Eventually, both sides lose AEW, tankers, and EW aircraft to leakers. This escalates the scenario further as both sides begin to use fighters to make limited strikes against the opposing air defenses. ( in preparation for a broader attack if needed. ) Once key systems and command and control facilities are destroyed, the opposing side will launch comprehensive land interdiction alpha strikes against military facilities in earnest. If/when these strikes are successful, the OPFOR will launch unrestricted attacks against all ground targets, including civilian population centers. At the point when cities, airbases, and high command bunkers are destroyed, nuclear weapons are deployed. At first, this will be limited to military and industrial targets. But once these begin to be destroyed, the OPFOR will finally launch its entire strategic deterrent against all targets, both military and civilian.

My conundrum is this: I know what the impetus will be for the West to use nuclear weapons against the Soviets. They are retaliatory to what is widely regarded as "Soviet aggression." It wasn't wanted or asked for, but it was the correct thing to do. But using the punch for punch formula I have described above, what would be the soviet impetus for using tactical nuclear weapons in retaliation? Once the burning wreckage of fighters and SAM sites from both sides litters the landscape, and rear-echelon support aircraft are shot down, what would cause the Soviets to launch their first wave of SS-20's against tactical targets like airbases?

Naturally, I know that the Soviet/WARPACT doctrine for war against the West would have begun with nukes, dozens of them scattered throughout the continent, including major cities- some in even neutral nations like Switzerland, Austria, and Sweden. This isn't my own conjecture; I have read much about this from a number of sources. Honestly, I found it a bit shocking. They would have started WWIII with nuclear weapons on innocent and neutral civilians in population centers. Like, how does one even begin to process that in a logical manner? Anyways...

So if anyone has any ideas of how to gradually escalate the conflict to full-blown nuclear war in a gradual, fun sort of way (LOL), I'd love to hear them.

RE: Learned an Important Lesson Today Regarding Nuclear Weapons Use

Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2016 5:43 am
by Dysta
In the strategic sense, no matter how these innocent civilians does not involved with the war, they are also the 'most valuable resources' just like military and economic powers the country endears. Nuclear massacre wide event might not crumple the enemy firepower initially, but definitely won't be short to recover to support the country, especially the logistics.

Every kinds of human power are useful, and their country will use every measures to count on them if WW3 is happening. This is both grim and saddening because this kind of war will descend the civilization, and wiping out the populations can ensure the country cannot fight anymore, to earn peace (albeit wasted the planet) as fast as possible.

RE: Learned an Important Lesson Today Regarding Nuclear Weapons Use

Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2016 6:37 am
by NakedWeasel
Well, I'll just say I get that, and I'll ask that we move on in the discussion. [;)]

RE: Learned an Important Lesson Today Regarding Nuclear Weapons Use

Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2016 9:27 am
by Zaslon
Interesting question NakedWeasel.

In Alfa Wolf Pack, the use of tactical nuclear weapons are only granted to use in naval operations, where the effect of this nukes is very limited. IMHO this is the first step. The second Step is the use of tactical weapons in the battlefield. The second step can be reached when one force break the enemy lines and cannot close the breach with conventional firepower. The third step could be activated by error, mistake....never by a direct order due to the mutual assured destruction (from mid-70s aprox). But launch a MAO-4 (attack civil targets, focused on big cities) attack is very rare as a first option, or I wanna believe that. Maybe it's possible launch a MAO-4 if the enemy nuclear response was destroyed previously. Of course, this opinion was built with the information we know now. Until MiD 60s (more or less) in USA they thought that they can win a nuclear war making a pre-emptive nuclear strike against soviet nuclear assets (Massive response Doctrine). We can see that reading the US nuclear doctrine of these years. Surely Soviets thought the same.

I suppose that what you wrote about Soviet doctrine is from the sixties. When both superpowers still had dangerous ideas about nuclear power and MAD concept had not been accepted yet.

About your scenario....Fly over sovereign airspace is a clear violation of the international law and you know tht you must be shoot down...99% of the times when we read in BBC/CNN that russian airplanes are flying over NATO airspace is false, they mixed sovereign airpace with Exclusive Econmic Zone or Air Defense Identification Zone, both of them are not part of the sovereign airspace. Maybe the Soviets can fly over the limits, as usually is done by all parties. You know, the boundary is 'diffuse' when you fly without GPS...so they can enter a bit over NATO airspace (16 NM from the coast) repeteadly and trigger a NATO response. Also an accidental collision is a good trigger. Soviets were very suspicious so, they can think that the collision was not an accident.

RE: Learned an Important Lesson Today Regarding Nuclear Weapons Use

Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2016 9:27 am
by Gunner98
NakedWeasel

Are you looking for the game mechanics on how to do as you described or the philosophical triggers that would cause it?

My thoughts,

Mechanical bit:
-use a counter & probably a timer on a blind side
-Only have Tac nucs available when authority is granted (probably based on an event not a counter)
-Lua in SS-20 units as the counter or timer goes up
-have a bunch of messages to the player so he doesn't miss the drama

Philosophical bit:
-Destruction of a nuc facility or storage sight is almost an automatic invitation to retaliate
-Achieving an un-closable breach in the ground war where forces are about to unhinge the defence - nuc it to block it
-When you casualties get to a point where you have no choice
-After xx hours and political pressure forces you to escalate unless xxx happens

An interesting concept, but tricky in the game and I think in real life as well.

B

RE: Learned an Important Lesson Today Regarding Nuclear Weapons Use

Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2016 2:21 pm
by kevinkins
How does one obtain "authorization" to use nukes in the game?

RE: Learned an Important Lesson Today Regarding Nuclear Weapons Use

Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2016 3:27 pm
by AdmiralSteve
"Usually you're close enough that it is a suicide mission and it feels like the result just doesn't justify the consequences."

And that's the joy of CMANO. Get immediate results of consequences that you could never attempt in a 50 ship RIMPAC.

RE: Learned an Important Lesson Today Regarding Nuclear Weapons Use

Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2016 8:52 pm
by Rory Noonan
ORIGINAL: kevinkin

How does one obtain "authorization" to use nukes in the game?

Change the doctrine setting. If it's grayed out (most likely will be), go to editor mode and change it there.

RE: Learned an Important Lesson Today Regarding Nuclear Weapons Use

Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2016 9:00 pm
by ultradave
ORIGINAL: NakedWeasel

[...]

So if anyone has any ideas of how to gradually escalate the conflict to full-blown nuclear war in a gradual, fun sort of way (LOL), I'd love to hear them.

I think this is actually the problem that was solved. The removal of tactical and intermediate range missiles from Europe back then removed a highly destabilizing "force". Most felt that once tactical or theater weapons were employed, it would very quickly escalate to a full nuclear exchange between the US and USSR. So I'm not sure there is a way to simulate what you are asking for, since strategists were pretty much convinced it wouldn't happen :-)

RE: Learned an Important Lesson Today Regarding Nuclear Weapons Use

Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2016 10:25 pm
by mikmykWS
Doable in lua and event editor.

Do a count of some sort or maybe even an area trigger followed by a lua action to change the ROE and/or kick off a mission.

Mike