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Well, I got a Decisive Victory at the end of July 1943 after taking Stalingrad and then Leningrad in July.

Supply down the roads and rails towards the new Soviet capital was quite pitiful despite having HQs right up front, so it was a long, difficult slog.
The tanks and infantry at the sharp end were getting pretty dull, taking frequent damage and not being able to reinforce much at all.

I was chasing US LR Transports around the Atlantic with my subs and finishing them with Maritime Bombers when they neared the coast, and trying to scrounge enough units to
play "plug the dike" with the vast partisan trouble spots throughout Russia.
I also had remnant of the DAK pestering the Russians coming up through Persia, but with little real success.
One corps was enough to plug any gap, but it did keep those units away from more important fighting.

The Rumanians and Bulgarians were doing stellar work in the Rostov/Caucasus region, and the Italians mainly held down partisans, though their tanks and mechanized were helpful
in exploiting in the main battle areas.

ORIGINAL: Hartmann

If you go Sealion, Russia usually sits still if enough units are kept around Warsaw. Sealion cannot be done successfully in 1940 because of the need to build up and the bad weather in Autumn/Winter. So it will start in 1941. This will delay Barbarossa for a year and then it will turn out much harder. It's still worth it as there will be no Husky and no Overlord in 1944.

I had the opposite happen to me, according to my opponent it activated as soon as a German foot was placed on British soil.