Shannon versus C

[Shannon V. OKeets]

Below is what is happening in northern China. But first, ...

Southern China - where I had a lot of concerns - is stable and even boring at the moment. The weather halted the Japanese advance and they don't have an HQ down there, so advancing inland is virtually impossible. Meanwhile I railed a couple of more defenders south and moved a couple other units by land. That all was possible because there is no Japanese threat in central China (as can be seen in the screenshot below).

Because the USSR has all its eastern Asia forces gathered on the border west of Vladivostok, Japan is keeping 5 or so units (but no HQ's) in Manchuria. You can see the HQ wandering southward in the screenshot. This makes for 3 Japanese HQ's in northern China, plus all their air units.

This is still the first turn and we are in the 9th impulse. The chance of the turn ending is 30% for the Allies and, should that not occur, it will be 50% for the Axis ending the turn after impulse #11. Note the weather probabilities in the upper right for the impending Axis impulse. And the destroyed pool in the lower left corner. The Germans lost an Inf attacking Lodz (1/1 result) and they shot down a Brit carrier air unit using their Naval Air unit for a strategic bombing mission in central England. About that, the carrier air unit had a range of 4 so it was able to fly inland 1 hex from the coast - which was brilliant, but disastrous. The bomber was cleared through but its bombs had no effect.

You can see the position in northern China below, and my question for you is: what should the Chinese do? By the way, my opponent (C) believed it would be best for the Allies to try to end the turn by having everyone pass (50% chance then).



EDIT: FYI, we have moved past this point in the game.

[Centuur]

If there aren't fast Japanese units in Hainan or Canton, I would start moving some units from the south of China towards the northern part of the front. I would put two Chicomm units in Tungkwan (Mao and another one) and two in the mountain hex NE of that city.

The city of Nanyang gets two units in it. The hex east of that city (in the mountains), also gets two units in it.

Than start praying for bad weather and turn ending. Slowly withdraw to Sian and the mountains west of Nanyang with both the Chicomm and the NatChi when the Japanese advance might cut the connections to the west of China.

[Courtenay]

I agree with moving Nationalists north, and putting Mao in Tungkwan. I would also hold the hex SW of Tungkwan with something. I agree with pulling back the Communist army two hexes NW of Tungkwan to the hex the NW of Tunkwan, where it will be double stacked. As it is, a successful Japanese attack on the 3-3 NW of Tungkwan would leave the 4-3 in a very unenviable position.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

I agree with moving Nationalists north, and putting Mao in Tungkwan. I would also hold the hex SW of Tungkwan with something. I agree with pulling back the Communist army two hexes NW of Tungkwan to the hex the NW of Tunkwan, where it will be double stacked. As it is, a successful Japanese attack on the 3-3 NW of Tungkwan would leave the 4-3 in a very unenviable position.

(said with a heavy French accent) Courage!

[Shannon V. OKeets]

Here is what I decided to do.[X(] No one in my army gets a bowl of rice unless they are in the front line!

Armed with bamboo staves the Chinese make threatening gestures and loud noises.

The 4-3 Inf and the Cav each overran a bomber. One of those units was disorganized at the time and destroyed. The other rebased to Tientsin.

The quasi-enclosed Japanese are temporarily OOS.

This was risky (duh!), but not as high a risk as it might seem at first. There was a 30% chance the turn would end (it didn't). And a 40% chance of bad weather (that did happen). So I had a 58% probability of one of those occurring.

One of the Japanese HQ's is disorganized and the Rain + Chinese ZOC's make movement very difficult. I was also using a tactic that I have found useful from time to time in other games: give the opponent a lot of different targets to attack. He won't be able to take out all of them.

Right now there is a 12% chance of 2 partisans arriving and 18% of 1 partisan arriving. Several juicy targets exist for them.

[AllenK]

Temporarily at least, the Chinese have wrestled the strategic initiative away from the Japanese. Not bad for S/O 39.

If Terauchi can still move 3 hexes in the rain, then the Japanese can be put back in supply. As Japanese, my priority would be 2nd Cav to ease pressure on the sole supply route. If a good odds attack on anything else can be organised, then I would but not at the expense of taking out that Cav.

Having 3 Japanese HQ's tightly packed seems like a good thing for the Chinese. If the turn ends, is there a reinforcement that could join 6th Inf?

[Shannon V. OKeets]

No reinforcements likely - it's the first turn still.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

No reinforcements likely - it's the first turn still.

A good Japanese player will empty the MIL pool...

[Shannon V. OKeets]

The first turn ended after Impulse 11, with the Axis both beginning and ending the turn. The Initiative marker goes to Axis +1.

The Chinese lost 2 units and the Germans lost 1, which is about par for the course.

The non-Polish air units losses were unusual.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

Here is the result of Production for the first turn.

Not noted in the comments is that the US (1) and Brits (2) built convoys in Sep/Oct 1939.

[I think there might be a bug with the convoys arriving after 3 turns instead of 4. I have to read the rules and check the code for that.]

The US is working on its navy, because they take so long to build.

Once France leaves the war, the Brits will need a lot more convoys. They are likely to get some from Denmark, the Netherlands, and Belgium once the Axis conquers those countries. However, in cases of uncertainty I prefer to err on the side of excess convoys for the Commonwealth.

EDIT: The Siam Reserve Militia wasn't built; it arrived automatically because Siam was aligned.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

Yes, there was a bug in determining how long a newly built convoy unit takes to arrive. That value was sometimes random! This only applied to newly created naval units, and the bug dates back CWIF, prior to 2004.

I guess this very rarely occurred.[&:]

[Courtenay]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Yes, there was a bug in determining how long a newly built convoy unit takes to arrive. That value was sometimes random! This only applied to newly created naval units, and the bug dates back CWIF, prior to 2004.

I guess this very rarely occurred.[&:]

There was at least one report a while ago about CPs arriving with the wrong date. As it wasn't repeatable (at random???), not much was done with it.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Yes, there was a bug in determining how long a newly built convoy unit takes to arrive. That value was sometimes random! This only applied to newly created naval units, and the bug dates back CWIF, prior to 2004.

I guess this very rarely occurred.[&:]

There was at least one report a while ago about CPs arriving with the wrong date. As it wasn't repeatable (at random???), not much was done with it.

It was an initialization issue. Most naval units have all their values set when they are read in from the data file. Convoys are the exception. They are the only naval units that is created "on the fly" whenever they are needed. Because one of their values was never explicitly set, it depended on whatever value was in the computer's memory location when the convoy was created.

[CanInf]

I am the "C" in this game, and I am bitterly disappointed. This bloody game keeps enforcing the rules! And Shannon was quite right when he gave me too many targets. I could only manage two attacks in China in our last session. The most important was to kill the wandering Cav.

Relative to the image here, the northern HQ marched down two hexes and promptly flipped, leaving the blob still out of supply. A div walked over to fill the gap allowing the rice train to pass. et voila!! everyone was happy again! After my head bursting attack in Poland, I went with a near auto crushing of the cav and killing a zero factor partisan on the coast (nothing dangerous!!) Unfortunately I advanced the HQ over the Cav's smoted remains and put the other attack Out of Supply! hence why I fret about the overzealous programming of rules.

As for Poland... sheesh... rolling a 3??? luckily I believe I had all my HQs face and up and flipped back (Or, mostly all... the ENG remained flipped so the factory was not repaired). I finally took Warsaw just before turn end. Meanwhile, many German factory workers were surprised to find the anticipated leaflets from the RAF bombers came attached to big metal things with explosives inside. They are currently filing a claim with the union for the return of the 2 lost BPs. In other annoying news, the div prepped to walk into Denmark is getting the same treatment as the workers, and it's just as annoyed.

As for Italy, no matter how often they play "should I stay or should I go," they can't decide if they should stay or go.

Moving forward (hateful expression), the plan is simply not to make a mess of things this early in the game, so I won't be building all my synthetic plants at the start and the Z Plan has been shelved until 1946. Though we do have great architectural drawings for a historical theme park dubbed "Wonder weapons from the dawn of aviation: the story of the Ju-86." No one can think of a better use for the hundreds on Germany's airfields!

sorry I don't have up to date pics!

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: CanInf

I am the "C" in this game, and I am bitterly disappointed. This bloody game keeps enforcing the rules! And Shannon was quite right when he gave me too many targets. I could only manage two attacks in China in our last session. The most important was to kill the wandering Cav.

Relative to the image here, the northern HQ marched down two hexes and promptly flipped, leaving the blob still out of supply. A div walked over to fill the gap allowing the rice train to pass. et voila!! everyone was happy again! After my head bursting attack in Poland, I went with a near auto crushing of the cav and killing a zero factor partisan on the coast (nothing dangerous!!) Unfortunately I advanced the HQ over the Cav's smoted remains and put the other attack Out of Supply! hence why I fret about the overzealous programming of rules.

As for Poland... sheesh... rolling a 3??? luckily I believe I had all my HQs face and up and flipped back (Or, mostly all... the ENG remained flipped so the factory was not repaired). I finally took Warsaw just before turn end. Meanwhile, many German factory workers were surprised to find the anticipated leaflets from the RAF bombers came attached to big metal things with explosives inside. They are currently filing a claim with the union for the return of the 2 lost BPs. In other annoying news, the div prepped to walk into Denmark is getting the same treatment as the workers, and it's just as annoyed.

As for Italy, no matter how often they play "should I stay or should I go," they can't decide if they should stay or go.

Moving forward (hateful expression), the plan is simply not to make a mess of things this early in the game, so I won't be building all my synthetic plants at the start and the Z Plan has been shelved until 1946. Though we do have great architectural drawings for a historical theme park dubbed "Wonder weapons from the dawn of aviation: the story of the Ju-86." No one can think of a better use for the hundreds on Germany's airfields!

sorry I don't have up to date pics!

I posted this last week - in the wrong thread.[:@]

The Japanese got back in supply and killed the 5-3 Inf, losing a 5-3 Inf of their own. The the turn ended and the Communists got 1 partisan - taking out a disorganized Japanese bomber. The Axis won the initiative (as expected) got Fine weather in the North Temperate (not expected, 20% chance), and killed off the 2-4 Nationalist Cav.

So, all in all, the Chinese lost a 5-3 and a 2-4. The Japanese lost two bombers and a 5-3.

The game is still in progress at that point, so I am not showing screenshots until it moves on a while more.

Any time your opponent ends the turn, starts the next turn, and gets Fine weather is always a rough patch.

[warspite1]

Can I ask you to post the convoy set up you are using for the Commonwealth/French please. I am also interested in seeing the oil saved and where this was saved. Many thanks.

[CanInf]

Alright! we had another session this Saturday and made it to the return to base phase at the end of ND 39.
I am only going from memory, but here are the broad strokes. Let's start where it went well for me, and then we can reluctantly talk about where it was unmitigated disaster.

The weather started well, turned to horrible and then the Sun was shining everywhere on the planet on the last impulse. The axis started the turn and ended it so they have lost their plus one bonus to the initiative roll.

In China, the good weather allowed a total of six attacks killing one nuisance CAV that was worming its way into my rear, three MIL (I think), and two Inf. While the death toll was impressive, I can't say my position gains were all that great. On the downside, a 14 result result in an assault in the southern mountains spelt the end for two Japanese MIL and an Inf. Ouch. Ohh the pesky.

In Germany and the west front things went really well too! The bright sun shiny day on the last impulse meant the Netherlands were smashed even though the Germans were in a poor position to launch.

Ok now the horrible stuff....

In the Baltic a few cruisers found my convoys again and again and again. In spite of having nav points with the CPs the RN always had enough points to force a surface. Not good at all. After sinking or aborting the entire CP flotilla, the cruisers scurried away, and the Germans filled the Baltic up with more targets for JF 40. (No I have not taken out the Danes yet.I should have on the last impulse when I had some fast movers ready for it, but failed to remember as I was licking my chops over the Netherlands.)

While the Baltic was terrible, the Med was a boiling pit of disaster, sinkings and poor axis decisions. It all started when a transport decided to go pick up the Ethiopian Inf. The RN was having none of it. Eyeing the ridiculous number of CPs the Italians had at sea, the RN saw nothing but opportunity and hit hard. While they failed to find in the Red Sea, that transport has been written off the Italian OB simply because it can't get home (along with a CP the Italians put there because they half-remembered the 4th Edition WiF map from 1990). Off the Italian coast, RN subs found and butchered 2 CPs (I believe). In the west med the first attempt at the CP failed but the second try worked with enough points to ignore my air cover. BOOM. Down it went. The only modicum of valour Italy achieved was in the East Med where a large surface force damaged two RN cruisers. Otherwise it was all very very bad. The Italians now have only the thinnest of links to North Africa with one CP in the East med replacing the sunk CP, one CP in the East Med supplying Tobruk, one CP in reserve, and one simply horrible transport (three movement, two range... you can thank my inability to scrap for that WW I junk).

All told, China seems a decent if expensive plus, and the fall of the Netherlands is welcome news, but the Axis are wondering how their current performance suggests anything but a dark future. We simply must do better. And perhaps the axis do have more time than usual to up their game. The RN is popping the bubbly, but the USA is aghast at the bloody unprovoked attacks. It's all over the news, while the German invasion of the Netherlands never made the headlines at all. Currently, I think the USA has two chits in the GE pool and one in the Japan pool.

I will try and get some photos up.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Can I ask you to post the convoy set up you are using for the Commonwealth/French please. I am also interested in seeing the oil saved and where this was saved. Many thanks.

I did it on-the-fly and it wasn't very good. Not something you should copy.[:D]

[Shannon V. OKeets]

Here is the Commonwealth convoy pipelines at the start of the second turn: Nov/Dec 1939.

The weather is fine everywhere.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

Adding in the French yields the Active Allied convoy pipelines.