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Rolls are certainly not done over only unrepaired part of the factory. 0(5) repairs significantly slower than 25(30). ~5-10 times slower for 2.5 year gap, I tested if it differs a while ago

I'm certain speed of adding repared points depends solely on total size and time gap

Edit: in fact, scratch the last part. Ran some quick tests and it looks like almost repaired factories add points faster than not repaired ones of same gap and size. Tested for 25(30) against 0(30) and 2.5 year gap. Hmm..

ORIGINAL: GetAssista

Rolls are certainly not done over only unrepaired part of the factory. 0(5) repairs significantly slower than 25(30). ~5-10 times slower for 2.5 year gap, I tested if it differs a while ago

I'm certain speed of adding repared points depends solely on total size and time gap

Edit: in fact, scratch the last part. Ran some quick tests and it looks like almost repaired factories add points faster than not repaired ones of same gap and size. Tested for 25(30) against 0(30) and 2.5 year gap. Hmm..

Your error is in thinking those two are the same size. 0(30) is size 30, 25(30) is size 55. The total size is repaired + (damaged). A 25(30) has nearly twice the chance to repair on any given turn compared to 0(30).

ORIGINAL: fcharton

ORIGINAL: InfiniteMonkey
That assume both are completely unrepaired. 0(6), 0(30), and 0(300) all have the same calculated repair date. 0(30), 8(22) and 20(10) factories for the same aircraft do not. The Probability of Repair is ( repaired + damaged ) in number of days to arrival.

I don't think I agree. For what I understand, only damaged factories roll for repair, which means the number of factories already repaired has no bearing on the expected date of full repair. In other words, a 4(26) site, having 26 damaged factories, repairs just like a 0(26) (or a 100(26)).

ORIGINAL: InfiniteMonkey
Think of it logically.

I am trying hard... What I make of this is that, in fact, size does matter. Whereas a 4(26) and a 0(26) will have the same expected time to repair (for the reasons explained above), a 0(6) and a 0(30) will not.

What matters is the time the last factory repairs, so the formula should depend on the average time of repair of one factory (a function of the availability date, we are told), but also on the variance and the number of trials needed to succeed, and the 63% pertains to 30 damaged factories (and would be lower for a 0(5) or 0(10)).


Francois

Your assumptions are wrong. If you look at the links I provided in my first post, they clearly state teh probability of repair is (the R&D factory total size) in (days to arrival). I have verfied this in testing prior to this thread and did another test a few minutes ago. It isn't an opinion question and it is easily verfiable:

1. Open the scenario editor and load scenario 1.
2. Click on aircraft and locate the Rufe (slot 605)
3. Change the arrival month from 4 to 1 (sets rufe arrival to 1/1/1942
4. Click on locations and got to Matsue (slot 238)
5. For device slots 3 through 12, enter device ID 2605, Num 29, Dis 1
6. Set Supply to 250000
7. Got to Slot 239 (Matsuyama)
8. For device slots 4 through 10, enter device ID 2605, Num 0, Dis 1
9. Set Supply to 250000
10. Change to Nagaoka (241)
11. make slots 4-10 device ID 2825, NUM 1400, DIS 30
12. Set supply to 250000
13. Change to slot 254 (tsu)
14. make slots 4-10 device ID 2825, NUM 0, DIS 30
15. Set supply to 250000
16. File -> Save the scenario As... to an empty slot.
17. Open WitP:AE
18. Set all options to no delay
19. Start game as japan using new scenario
20. Hit J to open industry screen
21. Click on All industry
22. Click on RD Air
23. Click on Tsu, Masuyama, Matsue, and Nagaoka, click on arrow to request supplies 25k. (make sure there is supply to repair)
24. Run the turn.
25. Note that ALL of the Franks you are researching at Nagaoka will go from 1400(30) to 1401(29). YET
26. Note that few or NONE of the Franks you are researching at Tsu Repaired. (all or most should remain 0(30). Unrepaired size is the same, but total size is different. The larger total size has close to 100% repair rate while the 30 total size has clsoe to 0% repair rate.
26. Note that ALL of the Rufe's you are researching at Matsue all went from 29(1) to 30(0). YET
27. Note that few or none of the Rufe plants at Matsuyama went from 0(1) to 1(0). MOST remained at 0(1).

ORIGINAL: InfiniteMonkey

Yes, but the size is not the issue. The timing of the expansion is. An unrepaired factory will fully repair in approximately 63% of time between the date the factory is undamaged and the arrival date of the aircraft. Late expansion of a single factory means it will fully repair later than it otherwise would have. Suppose I have a 0(5) and 0(30) Frank factories on 12/7/1941. The Expected Fully-Repaired Date will be the same for both. However, if I wait 60 days to expand the 0(5)to 0(30), that factory will now have a later Expected Fully-Repaired Date that lags the first by approximately 30-35 days.

I did not know this, you learn something every day.

I do have one thing to add however it's very much dependant on supply. In the Tony example Gifu is continually suffering from supply falling below the level required to build, >10K even with stockpiling on. The same thing applies to other bases especially those I use to load cargo TF. Overall supply in Japan is OK, hovering between 450-500K so the >10K level is returned after a day or two.

Expanding the Frank at the beginning of the game will only add to the supply problems and from earlier games expanding everything at game start caused supply to become very low in Japan. Your info only complicates the choices available.

ORIGINAL: InfiniteMonkey
Your assumptions are wrong. If you look at the links I provided in my first post, they clearly state teh probability of repair is (the R&D factory total size) in (days to arrival). I have verfied this in testing prior to this thread and did another test a few minutes ago. It isn't an opinion question and it is easily verfiable:

I certainly won't test it (I don't benchmark the game, it looks too much like work), but I think I get it (and I understand where the 63% come from). Thank you.

So, bottomline would be
- the probability of repair is total size/nr of days to availability,
- so, for a 0(N) factory, D days away from availability, the expected nr of repairs after d days is
N ( 1/D + 1/(D-1) + ... + 1/(D-d) )
- the expected time of full repair is the time when this sum reaches N, or, factoring N out, the value of d for which
( 1/D + 1/(D-1) + ... + 1/(D-d) ) = 1
- this quantity is independent of N (the size of the factory), it can be tabulated in excel or solved using Euler formula for harmonic series
- more precisely : the sum 1 + 1/2 + ... + 1/D is very close to ln D + euler constant,
- so the left part of our formula is close to: ln D - ln (D-d), ie ln (D/(D-d))
- replacing and solving the above, we get D/(D-d)=exp(1), or d=(e-1)/e D, e=2.7183
- hence, on average, d = 0,63 D for a 0 (N) factory D days away from availability
- if the factory is partly repaired, the same formula applies, replacing the 1 on the right by the fraction of damaged size/total size, and e by the exponential of this fraction
- for instance for a 25(5) factory, replace 1 by 1/6, or e=exp(1/6), and d=0,15D...

The general formula would then be, for a A(B) factory, compute e = exp( B/(A+B)), on average, if you a D days from availability, you will have full repair in (e-1)/e D days.
Calculations yield:
- 63% of availability for fully damaged factories
- 41% for 75% damage
- 24% for 50% damage
- 10% for 25% damage

Francois

ORIGINAL: Aurorus
As an aside, this strategy of skipping steps is one that many players use in PDU:on games. It provides little benefit in PDU:off, because individual air-groups must go through each upgrade in order: A6M2 to A6M3 to A6M5 to A6M5b and so forth.

You could use it with PDU off, as some squadrons do not go through all the steps in their upgrade. You have a small number of squadrons that upgrade to the A6M8 withouth going through the 5b and 5c. I don't think it makes sense for the Zero line, but for the Oscar or Tojo, maybe.

In practice, once the RD factories are repaired, you will usually want to research the models in order, but not necessarily until they become available.This way, you can allocate more time to the later models, without breaking the chronology (and to me, this is not gamey at all).

Francois

ORIGINAL: InfiniteMonkey

ORIGINAL: GetAssista
Rolls are certainly not done over only unrepaired part of the factory. 0(5) repairs significantly slower than 25(30). ~5-10 times slower for 2.5 year gap, I tested if it differs a while ago

I'm certain speed of adding repared points depends solely on total size and time gap

Edit: in fact, scratch the last part. Ran some quick tests and it looks like almost repaired factories add points faster than not repaired ones of same gap and size. Tested for 25(30) against 0(30) and 2.5 year gap. Hmm..

Your error is in thinking those two are the same size. 0(30) is size 30, 25(30) is size 55. The total size is repaired + (damaged). A 25(30) has nearly twice the chance to repair on any given turn compared to 0(30).

You are of course correct. Shows the perils of doing tests on the run...

Did the proper ones when I returned with 25(5) vs 0(30) factories, and cannot statistically separate repair rates. As expected.

ORIGINAL: fcharton

ORIGINAL: InfiniteMonkey
Your assumptions are wrong. If you look at the links I provided in my first post, they clearly state teh probability of repair is (the R&D factory total size) in (days to arrival). I have verfied this in testing prior to this thread and did another test a few minutes ago. It isn't an opinion question and it is easily verfiable:

I certainly won't test it (I don't benchmark the game, it looks too much like work), but I think I get it (and I understand where the 63% come from). Thank you.

I did some research qualifying for "too much work" here tm.asp?m=4211316

Good approximation for the probability of repair for 30-size factory would be P=min[1;30/(months*30-8)] where "months" is the number of months to arrival rounded up.

Question about Research.
Is it a good idea to accelerate the A6M Sen Baku? My idea is, that I could use the starting A6M2 factories for the later Zero production.
If I understand it right, I could upgrade the A6M2 factories without damage to A6M2 Sen Baku and than on the normal Zero brunch. Withou it, I lost 1/3 of the starting factory and the other 2/3 I must repair, isn't it?
How many A6M8 you want to produce, if you are finished the research?

Is it a good idea to accelerate the A6M Sen Baku?

This is a fighter-bomber version of the Zero IIRC. IMHO using Japanese naval pilots for anything other than naval operations is wasteful, so I would not produce that A/C.

How many A6M8 you want to produce, if you are finished the research?

Personally, none. I don't research the whole Zero line preferring the Sam instead. Problem is it will come too late to be of any use as a CV A/C. Most of Japans' carriers should be artificial reefs by then. TBH (unless you skip the flow chart) the A6M8 will most likely be too late as well.

In addition, the A6M8 is not that much better than the 5b or c at any rate. Even researching these late model Zero's may be of little benefit, as some here have suggested.

Yes but research for them should be 'free' if the correct upgrade path is followed. So why not [:)]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

Is it a good idea to accelerate the A6M Sen Baku?

This is a fighter-bomber version of the Zero IIRC. IMHO using Japanese naval pilots for anything other than naval operations is wasteful, so I would not produce that A/C.

How many A6M8 you want to produce, if you are finished the research?

Personally, none. I don't research the whole Zero line preferring the Sam instead. Problem is it will come too late to be of any use as a CV A/C. Most of Japans' carriers should be artificial reefs by then. TBH (unless you skip the flow chart) the A6M8 will most likely be too late as well.

In addition, the A6M8 is not that much better than the 5b or c at any rate. Even researching these late model Zero's may be of little benefit, as some here have suggested.

How strong did you research the SAM and at which date would that plane be availble?

ORIGINAL: rustysi

ORIGINAL: gmtello

And 2 are the factories producing research consuming hi points And what about the not producing

No, R&D does not consume HI. The only thing you need to expand and 'repair' R&D factories is supply, and that's no little thing as its very costly for Japan.

On the other hand if you have the 'engine bonus' it'll cost you 18 HI for the engine which is spent to get the bonus.

just what... I should do...forget the factories..supplys everywhere, you will get oil and resources..see manual

ORIGINAL: Numdydar

Yes but research for them should be 'free' if the correct upgrade path is followed. So why not [:)]

If I understand your point the reason is the sooner I get to major research of the Sam the better. Its the reason I don't wish to go too far in the Zero R&D line. Especially the late models which only sport incremental improvements.

ORIGINAL: VigaBrand

ORIGINAL: rustysi

Is it a good idea to accelerate the A6M Sen Baku?

This is a fighter-bomber version of the Zero IIRC. IMHO using Japanese naval pilots for anything other than naval operations is wasteful, so I would not produce that A/C.

How many A6M8 you want to produce, if you are finished the research?

Personally, none. I don't research the whole Zero line preferring the Sam instead. Problem is it will come too late to be of any use as a CV A/C. Most of Japans' carriers should be artificial reefs by then. TBH (unless you skip the flow chart) the A6M8 will most likely be too late as well.

In addition, the A6M8 is not that much better than the 5b or c at any rate. Even researching these late model Zero's may be of little benefit, as some here have suggested.

How strong did you research the SAM and at which date would that plane be availble?

At start I don't research the Sam heavily, which is why I wish to change the Zero line ASAP. I don't have a date as to when I believe it'll be available as I haven't gotten all R&D facilities started as yet. Don't expect to max out the R&D for Sam 'til sometime in early '43. At that point I'll have an estimate as to when it'll arrive. As I've said previously I doubt it'll have any significant impact as a CV asset, but will more than likely be a land bird.

No, R&D does not consume HI.

This statement I made in an earlier post here is not completely correct. Repairing an R&D facility does not consume HI, but expanding one does have an HI cost. Its 100 HI per point of the facility. IOW an R&D facility of size 1 will cost 100 HI to get there, expand to 10 and the total cost = 1000. To get to 30 it will be 3000 HI if starting from zero. Repairing from there costs zero HI, but will cost 1000 supply per point repaired and only occur if the base has a total supply >10000.

ORIGINAL: Zecke

ORIGINAL: rustysi

ORIGINAL: gmtello

And 2 are the factories producing research consuming hi points And what about the not producing

No, R&D does not consume HI. The only thing you need to expand and 'repair' R&D factories is supply, and that's no little thing as its very costly for Japan.

On the other hand if you have the 'engine bonus' it'll cost you 18 HI for the engine which is spent to get the bonus.

just what... I should do...forget the factories..supplys everywhere, you will get oil and resources..see manual

Not exactly sure what you're point or question is here.

ORIGINAL: rustysi

ORIGINAL: VigaBrand

ORIGINAL: rustysi



This is a fighter-bomber version of the Zero IIRC. IMHO using Japanese naval pilots for anything other than naval operations is wasteful, so I would not produce that A/C.



Personally, none. I don't research the whole Zero line preferring the Sam instead. Problem is it will come too late to be of any use as a CV A/C. Most of Japans' carriers should be artificial reefs by then. TBH (unless you skip the flow chart) the A6M8 will most likely be too late as well.

In addition, the A6M8 is not that much better than the 5b or c at any rate. Even researching these late model Zero's may be of little benefit, as some here have suggested.

How strong did you research the SAM and at which date would that plane be availble?

At start I don't research the Sam heavily, which is why I wish to change the Zero line ASAP. I don't have a date as to when I believe it'll be available as I haven't gotten all R&D facilities started as yet. Don't expect to max out the R&D for Sam 'til sometime in early '43. At that point I'll have an estimate as to when it'll arrive. As I've said previously I doubt it'll have any significant impact as a CV asset, but will more than likely be a land bird.

For stock type scenarios:
If you go big, 15*30 or 18*30 factories, from the start you can expect it mid '44-ish. Anything earlier would require a lot of luck. If you are playing stock type scenario, it is worth it. If PDU OFF, for sure go 18*30 or more as ALL IJN fighter groups will upgrade to A7M giving your overall fighter forces a huge upgrade. In PDU On, 15*30 is more appropriate as N1K is a very good interim LBA fighter for the IJN. OR if you plan to ground your KB, you may choose to go only 12*30 and focus more on getting the N1K earlier which can be an effective strategy.

A lot of this is about your overall strategy. There is NO single recipe for the IJN. Experience with the game will give you more options, not fewer. [8D]

And a lot of these options will have you lose the war sooner than later [X(]

ORIGINAL: Numdydar

And a lot of these options will have you lose the war sooner than later [X(]

Very true, you can only RnD 1 or two aircraft models like this. Everything else arrives pretty much on the historical dates.

OR

You spread out the RnD over many models and get them all a couple of months early each.

Either way you have to watch your supply expenditure and don't crater your economy. Its easier to do that most think.

In my study I found out, that you should look at the engines. I know understand why it is huge, that the Tojo had the Ha-35 in Stock 2 instead of Ha-34. If you research big, you will have a lot of factories (you you lost many supplies) and than you need lot of engines to which cost you supplies.

It is not that easy at all and many ideas and time are required to become an idea what works and what didn't.

One question: Which NF for Japan? I want to try with Nicks, but I'm unsure.