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The only thing this clearly shows is something completely different.

ericv - forgot to say thank you as I can see you did a lot of work getting our heads around this. For me personally this has been a huge blackhole in knowledge.

But I think now we have a hypothesis that can be tested. Your conclusions are correct (and the manual is too) that the allies will trigger given enough waiting time IF they are also not isolated from the Soviet Union. But IF they are isolated from the Soviet Union the marauders can capture as many towns as they like and still not trigger an allies activation?

We will look into this, the romanian non-activation looks suspicious.

Telemecus you may be right, usually the unfreeze/surrender code is looking for unfrozen supplied enemy units.