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Yes, but for some things (like weather, tech gains, combat and sub dives) the luck will probably average out over the course of the game. Also, you can't compare a sub diving (often for just an extra turn or attack) with the US joining before France falls. One is an annoyance, the other is a game breaker. I was not aware that the UK and France could each invest 4 diplo chits in the US. I assumed it was just 3. Had I known that I suppose I would have reacted differently. Though exactly what I could have done differently I'm not sure. Invested earlier in my own Diplomacy in the US I suppose. But the odd thing is that didn't actually hurt me. It wasn't until after I did invest that you started getting the hits. Anyway, once the US joins I will probably surrender as it will be game over. Good Game you outplayed me with an excellent strategy. I would like to try again if you are willing, to see if I can counter your strategy (or whatever new strategy you come up with).

Luck did even out in a way, Germany getting 3 hits in 4 turns of 15% diplomacy is certainly even less likely to happen than 4 hits of months of allied balls to the walls diplomacy. I'm not ready to call it a gamebreaker strategy yet. The allies did spend some 1800mpp to make it happen, that's that much tech not researched or units produced, plenty of weaknesses to be exploited. for example, even if USA has already activated, the opportunity cost for Vichy, Sealion, Gibraltar and Middle East advances are removed.

The UK and Germany have 5 chits. Italy and France have 3 each. USA doesn't have any cap like Switzerland and Spain have so all 8 can be invested if money allows. Once France is out the Axis have numerical superiority and could technically roll USA's influence back.

April 3rd start of turn situation


The French center was not fully renforced at the start of Case Yellow. I tasked the UK and the belgian armies into holding the line a couple of turn to give time to prop their readiness up. With USA subsidies any UK losses can be rebuilt relatively quickly.

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana

So if the UK and France combined can be guaranteed a minimum 25% chance of a diplo hit on the US and if it requires 5 or 6 hits to get the US into the War; then it will take on average 20 to 24 turns, which is about 2/3rds of a year. In our game you are about to start turn 20.

If Germany (5) matches UK (5) investment then the allies have 15% chance on account of France chits (3). At 15% you can expect 1-2 hits within the time span of France still being around. Manageable risk but very expensive for Germany. It also sorta forces them to go for Spain via the Morroco decision since all their diplochits are tied up.

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

Just out of curiosity, if those had been USSR investments (instead of USA) and the USSR had taken an aggressive stance (e.g. no treaty adjustment) could you have the USSR in the war while Germany is occupied with France? At the very least I imagine the USSR would have a very powerful income to prepare for 1941.

I'm also wondering where the play balance determined that major power diplo chits were (only) x3 as valuable/cost as diplo for other countries. Seems to me they maybe should cost more as even 1 hit can provide a return (in MPP) on the investment that you really don't get when used on a minor.

It is certainly possible. Honestly, if there's a gamebreaker strat, this is probably it. Germany can spare having USA joining because they have no army and will require a ramp up phase before they are a threat. Not so much for the USSR. If Germany is caught flatfooted then all of the USSR static defences survive activation. With 2 garrison unit in the east? Yeah... it's lights out.

In the ye olde SC days, USSR and USA chits were 250 mpp I believe. People never bought then. I'm ok with 150 but would probably put some kind of cap on USSR ones. Something like 2 chit max for Germany, 1 for UK, 1 for France, 0 Italy and USA. Stalin trusted no one (not even himself, so the quote says).

At a fixed price, only a handful of minors are 'worth their price'. I do wish there were more variety between minor prices. There would still be an opportunity cost in picking how you use you chits. Let's say you put Yugoslavia at 15 mpp and Spain at 60mpp, maybe you'd see Axis player trying a yugo push if they want to keep their diplo expenses low.

ORIGINAL: KorutZelva

Luck did even out in a way, Germany getting 3 hits in 4 turns of 15% diplomacy is certainly even less likely to happen than 4 hits of months of allied balls to the walls diplomacy.

I agree Germany got even luckier with it's diplomacy on Spain than the Allies have been with the US. In a way that is my point, that with diplomacy the game can be decided more by luck than by skill. But also I would trade all 3 of my Spain diplomacy hits for just 1 of your US hits, they are not equal.

I'm not ready to call it a gamebreaker strategy yet. The allies did spend some 1800mpp to make it happen, that's that much tech not researched or units produced, plenty of weaknesses to be exploited. for example, even if USA has already activated, the opportunity cost for Vichy, Sealion, Gibraltar and Middle East advances are removed.

We will have to agree to disagree on whether it is a game breaker. If 3 other experienced players post here giving their honest opinion that US entry into the War prior to the Fall of France does not mean the Axis are doomed than I will continue playing if/when this happens. Otherwise I would prefer to admit my defeat and take another crack at it. It is true you have spent 1800 MPPs but 450 of the MPPs you spent were French, which is not the same as UK. And Germany has spent 450 MPPS to counter. The difference being that you will be able to make up the 1350 UK MPPs you spent by way of increased US production within a few turns; but I will never be able to make up the 450 I have lost.

The UK and Germany have 5 chits. Italy and France have 3 each. USA doesn't have any cap like Switzerland and Spain have so all 8 can be invested if money allows.

I did not know this. Had I known I would have purchased more US diplomacy chits with Germany. As far as I can tell this is not in the Rules. For a Newbie player you certainly seem to know the Rules well, even the "hidden" ones. I don't mean this critically, just the opposite. I think you have to accept that you are a much better player than you think you are.

Once France is out the Axis have numerical superiority and could technically roll USA's influence back.

If the US is not in the War before France is out I will continue playing; I just don't think that is likely.

ORIGINAL: KorutZelva

With USA subsidies any UK losses can be rebuilt relatively quickly.

I think you are kind of making my point here.

ORIGINAL: KorutZelva

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana

So if the UK and France combined can be guaranteed a minimum 25% chance of a diplo hit on the US and if it requires 5 or 6 hits to get the US into the War; then it will take on average 20 to 24 turns, which is about 2/3rds of a year. In our game you are about to start turn 20.

If Germany (5) matches UK (5) investment then the allies have 15% chance on account of France chits (3). At 15% you can expect 1-2 hits within the time span of France still being around. Manageable risk but very expensive for Germany. It also sorta forces them to go for Spain via the Morroco decision since all their diplochits are tied up.

Assuming France can survive until the German July 7, 1940 turn (which is likely in our game) that is 27 turns. But admittedly the Allies would not have a 15% chance for all of those turns. So on average there would be about 3 to 4 US diplo hits. Of course, I wish I knew all this before our game. As is I am learning the hard way. But better to learn the hard way then to not learn at all.

Germany destroys the brits expeditionary force and a UK AA, circle around eben emael, destroy the belgian army in brussel and paradrop in it. Belgium surrenders.

May 17th, 1940

French armies breaks contact because that 25% bonus from prepared attacks hurts like hell. (Hopefully out of range from his planes too.) France implement the 'Polish Ball' defense around Paris and a skeleton crew is left at the maginot line.

Italy joins at the end of turn.

I think you have to accept that you are a much better player than you think you are.

Goddamit! [:o]

April 3rd after turn



UK jumps to the Front. Disbanded the French planes to have more $ to reinforce my armies.

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana

ORIGINAL: KorutZelva

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana

So if the UK and France combined can be guaranteed a minimum 25% chance of a diplo hit on the US and if it requires 5 or 6 hits to get the US into the War; then it will take on average 20 to 24 turns, which is about 2/3rds of a year. In our game you are about to start turn 20.

If Germany (5) matches UK (5) investment then the allies have 15% chance on account of France chits (3). At 15% you can expect 1-2 hits within the time span of France still being around. Manageable risk but very expensive for Germany. It also sorta forces them to go for Spain via the Morroco decision since all their diplochits are tied up.

Assuming France can survive until the German July 7, 1940 turn (which is likely in our game) that is 27 turns. But admittedly the Allies would not have a 15% chance for all of those turns. So on average there would be about 3 to 4 US diplo hits. Of course, I wish I knew all this before our game. As is I am learning the hard way. But better to learn the hard way then to not learn at all.

I can't get a hit on your turn and vice versa. So 27 turns is really 13,5 chances of diplohits. At 15% that's 2 hit on average.

I was thinking about your game here (and what Korut did to me in our game with Diplo vs. the USA) and had an epiphany level idea.
I put it in its own separate thread, and would like to hear your guys' thoughts.

USA and USSR Diplo Suggestion

ORIGINAL: KorutZelva

I can't get a hit on your turn and vice versa. So 27 turns is really 13,5 chances of diplohits. At 15% that's 2 hit on average.

Are you sure about that? I read in a post somewhere that diplomacy hits for both sides happen at the end of both players turns. Also thought that at least one of your hits happened at the end of my turn. I also know that the automatic mobilization changes (such as for Italy and Russia in 1941) happen at the end of both players turns. But it could very well be that I am wrong about this as well. It certainly is not explained in the Rules. Accordingly I would appreciate if either Hubert or Bill could give us a definitive answer.

If they do only fire at the end of our respective turns than all I can say is that both of us have been lucky, me more so than you. You have played 11 turns; of which you have had a 30% chance of a diplo hit on about 6 of them. On the rest of them your chances varied from 5% to 25%. So you should have averaged about 2.5 hits and you've gotten 4. I have had a 15% chance of a Spain hit on about 3 of my 12 turns and a 10% chance on about 6 of them. So I should have averaged only 1 hit and have 3.

June 8th 1940

Two Carriers escorted by French ship venture into the adriatic, catch Italian cruisers in port and sink them.
German have yet to enter contact with the French Poland ball but drop paratroopers to the east of it.

May 17th, 1940



Poland ball in action

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana

ORIGINAL: KorutZelva

I can't get a hit on your turn and vice versa. So 27 turns is really 13,5 chances of diplohits. At 15% that's 2 hit on average.

Are you sure about that? I read in a post somewhere that diplomacy hits for both sides happen at the end of both players turns. Also thought that at least one of your hits happened at the end of my turn. I also know that the automatic mobilization changes (such as for Italy and Russia in 1941) happen at the end of both players turns. But it could very well be that I am wrong about this as well. It certainly is not explained in the Rules. Accordingly I would appreciate if either Hubert or Bill could give us a definitive answer.

If they do only fire at the end of our respective turns than all I can say is that both of us have been lucky, me more so than you. You have played 11 turns; of which you have had a 30% chance of a diplo hit on about 6 of them. On the rest of them your chances varied from 5% to 25%. So you should have averaged about 2.5 hits and you've gotten 4. I have had a 15% chance of a Spain hit on about 3 of my 12 turns and a 10% chance on about 6 of them. So I should have averaged only 1 hit and have 3.

Pretty sure. The mobilization thing is a different and happens on both our turn.

ORIGINAL: KorutZelva

June 8th 1940

Two Carriers escorted by French ship venture into the adriatic, catch Italian cruisers in port and sink them.

Yeah, I had the choice of using my few Italian MPPs to either buy a US diplomacy chit or else reinforce my cruisers. I chose the former, hoping against hope that the British carriers were elsewhere. Of course, if I could do it over I would not have bought two Italian research chits earlier in the game.

June 30th, 1940

Axis controls one hex next to Paris so it might fall next turn. A french corp march into mannheim trying to score a morale victory. Elsewhere French army launch pot shots here and there but mostly try to hold on the ball.
USSR passes on the Baltic states but advances in Bessarabia.

June 8th, 1940



France Poland Ball can into space.

July 14, 1940

Germany peels the Poland Ball onion.
French troops start to evacuate metropolitan France.
Last stand around Paris.



==========================

As the battle of France winds to a close, some thoughts...
The good guys did manage to last longer than I expected but that was at severe UK cost. (2 Corps, 1 Army, 1 AA killed in supply. 1 Corp killed out of supply.) I decided to toss them into the fire to buy some time as I figured it was early enough in the invasion and that I would have time to rebuild them to provide Sealion deterrence. I would have preferred to have a French unit take point at Eben Emael but outside of operating one in (which screws up its readiness) I had none close enough or fit enough to do so. Leaving the maginot under-strenght worked out pretty good. Even if a unit is str 5, that entrenchment 6 is protection enough.

I was hoping to cripple the Italian navy more than that with my carriers. Two cruisers are a nice consolation prize but basically I found out a full str ship in port is pretty safe vs Carriers at Naval tech 1.

A belated diplomatic push by the Axis probably prevented the USA from joining before France fall. It will be interesting to see how the diplomatic scenes realigns after France is down for the count. Will they be content to match UK investment and go for Spain with 3 chits or will they focus on rolling back USA mobilization?

Vichy formed 1940/7/21
UK recognizes the Free French and enact Operation Catapult.
USA at 87% after fall of France... Skipping on Belgium paid off...
Germany binging on tech lately but will they be ready for Barbarossa?

Photobucket is down so I can't put up any pics.

ORIGINAL: KorutZelva

Vichy formed 1940/7/21
UK recognizes the Free French and enact Operation Catapult.
USA at 87% after fall of France... Skipping on Belgium paid off...
Germany binging on tech lately but will they be ready for Barbarossa?

Photobucket is down so I can't put up any pics.

I was not even aware that the US gained mobilization on the Fall of France. It has obviously happened in every game I have played, but I never paid attention. sPzAbt653 once posted all the scripts that affect USSR mobilization, a similar one for US mobilization would be appreciated.

September time.

UK Army group come to take tea with the Italian near Tobruk and issue a stern warning about the shelling and bombing of Valetta as it is distubing the local garrison bridge game.

Super quiet time on all front.

Time for a spending roll count!

Germany
Units (losses): 3926 (3205)
Tech: 1675 (most of it invested June and up)
Diplo: 1000

Italy
Units (losses): 720 (624)
Tech: 475
Diplo: 300

UK
Units (losses): 2494 (1649)
Tech: 1100 (all of it invested June and up)
Diplo: 1350

USSR
Units(losses): 93
Tech: 1000

USA
Units(losses): 35
Tech: 2275

Sept 22, 1940

Italian bombers are reinforced with german contingent, together they make short work of UK AA but don't invade the island. An Italian destroyer catch a garrison trying to sneak in Malta. (Worth a try! [;)])

With Malta about to fall the UK offensive in Lybia is in jeopardy.

In the atlantic, a level 1 sub is spotted near the coast of spain it is quickly swarmed by destroyers (still level 0) and is sunk without it diving a single time. [X(]

Jan 1941

Italians escort the Brits back to Egypt but the armies have not made contact since the skirmish in libya. Uk scrambles to set up its defenses before el Alamein.

As barbarossa nears I'll take pics of my Russian defensive set-up that I will reveal after it is launched.