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Im concerned a bit about vanilla too.

I'm seeing (Vanilla game) Russia at Inf Weapons 1 and 80% towards 2 in May of 1942. This with Russia buying the first chit as soon as 200 mpp was available (though without selling any chits) and reinvesting as soon as level 1 was achieved. Russia was unlucky and hasn't gotten a single breakthrough in Inf Weapons and odds say they should have seen 1 and had a better than 50-50 to have had 2. This is with Germany having gotten to level 2 beforw the DAK showed up (iirc).

With the slower research I’ve given USSR Infantry Weapons I and Advanced Tanks 1, and MPP penalties in 1939 to make it very difficult to invest in these immediately, which should keep them behind Germany. In the end there are too many other differences to say this would work in vanilla, but I really want USSR to have some bite as early as 1942 be able to go on the offensive in 1943, since Germany can win the game by simply surviving 1945.

My examples in post 12 are off by 2 critical factors that may cancel each other out. Namely:
1. Failed to account for having to reach a minimum value of 45% before having breakthroughs available.
2. Breakthroughs are in addition to normal advancements.

#1 Means fewer breakthroughs by approximately 50%.
#2. Means breakthroughs will reduce the number of turns (for single chit investment) by 3 turns instead of 2.

Also note I'm basing on random increase of 2 - 7% as stated in the manual. Hubert's analysis post states range is 3 - 8%. I've asked for clarification.

ORIGINAL: Hubert Cater


1. The manual looks to be incorrect as [3,8] would indeed be the correct values. My mistake there as I simply provided the incorrect data for the manual.

[3,8] = (3+4+5+6+7+8)/6 = 5 1/2 - if equal probabilities

[3,7] = 5

[3,7] maybe?

Nope.
Hubert provides the formula as:
Regular advancement range = [(5/2).rounded, 5 + (5/2).rounded] = [3,8]

*Notice the differences is the lower & higher end ranges you get when you start adding in the bonuses:
The example shows that the range is 5-15 with +5 in bonuses and not simply 8-13.
(5+5)/2 for the low end and ((5+5) + (5+5)/2) for the high end.

Other things of Note:
Apparently (given the wording Hubert used) only the single best Friendly and single best Hostile Sharing/Catch-up bonuses will apply.

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I may redo my off the cuff turn estimates at some point.