28 AA Guns Causing Too Much Mayhem

[Erik Rutins]

Thanks, the more saves we can get that show any perceived issues, the better in terms of investigating and figuring out what's going on.

[Joel Billings]

The case shown of VtoB of before and after the patch just shows the randomness of the losses because there was absolutely no change between 1.02.08 and 1.02.11 versions when it comes to air losses.

Now the fact that we can't load current saves with versions before 1.02.06 makes it harder to run side by sides as the last changes to losses were made in 1.02.06. I did take a very old save from 1.01.09 and launched an attack and then tried it with 1.02.11. I ran the battle 3 times each and the total overall losses were quite a bit higher with the later version. It was complicated by the fact that I always got more aircraft in the earlier version flying ground support (for no reason that I can think of), but the loss per a/c flying was much higher. 3 is not a large sample size but it's something, and at least the a/c flying were all level bombers (tac bombers take more flak due to bombing at lower altitudes). We are looking at the losses but there are some things that are difficult to unravel. We'll likely have some changes after the holidays, but I can't say yet what those might be. If someone has a good test save with some battles from 1.01.09 that show a difference in 1.02.11, it could help. Thanks.

[Zovs]

When you break down and analyze things, I am seeing this:

Operation Typhoon

Gnd: Light Mud
Air: Rain
Light Woods
Isolated hex
36 MD + 600 Stug Battalion, 2x Werfer Battalions vs. 107 Mech Division
13.7:1
60 Fighters and 60 Bombers
Lost 1 Fighter and 1 Bombers
One to flak and one to Ops.

Gnd: Clear
Air: Rain
Light Woods
Isolated hex
29 MD + SP Light Flak company, howitzer battalion and 2x werfer Battalions vs 287 Rifle Division
10.5:1
17 Fighters and 10 Bombers
Lost 3 Fighters and 1 Bombers
One bomber to flak all fighters to Ops.

Grd: Clear
Air: Rain
Light Woods
Isolated hex
10 MD + Mot. Light Flak Battalion, sFH Heavy Howitzer Battalion, Howitzer Battalion, Heavy Werfer Battalion vs 132 Rifle Division
19 Fighers and 14 Bombers
Lost 1 Fighter and 3 Bombers
Two bombers to flak all the rest to Ops.

GC 1941 turn 2

Grd: Clear
Air: Clear
Light Woods
Isolated hex
113 ID vs 3 CD, 41 RD and 6 RC
31.8:1
122 Fighters and 244 Bombers
Lost 1 Fighter and 16 Bombers
14 bombers to flak and 2 Ops
Fighter to Ops

Grd: Clear
Air: Clear
Clear
Not Isolated hex
44 ID vs 127 RD
143.5:1
116 Fighters and 84 Bombers
Lost 1 Fighter and 4 Bombers
3 Flak losses (2 to bomber 1 to fighter) and 2 Ops losses to bomber

Grd: Clear
Air: Clear
Clear
Not Isolated hex
Wiking SS MD + Flamm Pz, FB Inf. Battalion, Mot.Light Flak company vs 97 NKVD BG + AT Regiment, 2x Corps Artillery Regiments
218:0
111 Fighters and 74 Bombers
Lost 4 Bombers all to Ops

Grd: Clear
Air: Clear
Clear
Not Isolated hex
14 PzD + SP Army Light Flak Company vs 3 TD, 19 TD, RVGK Howitzer Regiment, 2x Corps Artillery Regiments
4.6:1
92 Fighters and 116 Bombers vs 39 Fighters
Lost 4 Bombers all to Ops (Soviet lost 29 A2A)


So I am not seeing any excessive flak losses here for ground combat.

[Rosencrantus]

I have a few saves from 1.00.12 on the same turn as the save I initially posted above but right before I ended my turn and right before I began the air phase. So hopefully they'll work on 1.01.09. I hope it can help.

(End of turn, lots of ground combat with GS)
https://www.dropbox.com/s/3u0cpwcye4wgb ... E.sav?dl=0


(Air phase)
https://www.dropbox.com/s/1vttsoe8tcuuu ... u.sav?dl=0

[KenchiSulla]

ORIGINAL: Zovs

When you break down and analyze things, I am seeing this:

Operation Typhoon

Gnd: Light Mud
Air: Rain
Light Woods
Isolated hex
36 MD + 600 Stug Battalion, 2x Werfer Battalions vs. 107 Mech Division
13.7:1
60 Fighters and 60 Bombers
Lost 1 Fighter and 1 Bombers
One to flak and one to Ops.

Gnd: Clear
Air: Rain
Light Woods
Isolated hex
29 MD + SP Light Flak company, howitzer battalion and 2x werfer Battalions vs 287 Rifle Division
10.5:1
17 Fighters and 10 Bombers
Lost 3 Fighters and 1 Bombers
One bomber to flak all fighters to Ops.

Grd: Clear
Air: Rain
Light Woods
Isolated hex
10 MD + Mot. Light Flak Battalion, sFH Heavy Howitzer Battalion, Howitzer Battalion, Heavy Werfer Battalion vs 132 Rifle Division
19 Fighers and 14 Bombers
Lost 1 Fighter and 3 Bombers
Two bombers to flak all the rest to Ops.

GC 1941 turn 2

Grd: Clear
Air: Clear
Light Woods
Isolated hex
113 ID vs 3 CD, 41 RD and 6 RC
31.8:1
122 Fighters and 244 Bombers
Lost 1 Fighter and 16 Bombers
14 bombers to flak and 2 Ops
Fighter to Ops

Grd: Clear
Air: Clear
Clear
Not Isolated hex
44 ID vs 127 RD
143.5:1
116 Fighters and 84 Bombers
Lost 1 Fighter and 4 Bombers
3 Flak losses (2 to bomber 1 to fighter) and 2 Ops losses to bomber

Grd: Clear
Air: Clear
Clear
Not Isolated hex
Wiking SS MD + Flamm Pz, FB Inf. Battalion, Mot.Light Flak company vs 97 NKVD BG + AT Regiment, 2x Corps Artillery Regiments
218:0
111 Fighters and 74 Bombers
Lost 4 Bombers all to Ops

Grd: Clear
Air: Clear
Clear
Not Isolated hex
14 PzD + SP Army Light Flak Company vs 3 TD, 19 TD, RVGK Howitzer Regiment, 2x Corps Artillery Regiments
4.6:1
92 Fighters and 116 Bombers vs 39 Fighters
Lost 4 Bombers all to Ops (Soviet lost 29 A2A)


So I am not seeing any excessive flak losses here for ground combat.

Hi Zovs,

- What type of bombers and @ what altitude?

[Zovs]

For GS I am using 9000, it’s a mix of bombers, He 111, Ju 88, Do 17 plus stukas, and whatever the Axis minors fly.

[PeteJC]

For what it is worth, I am seeing the same. The flak (and operational to a lesser degree) losses are much higher. I am not an absolute expert on every detail of the air mechanics, but I am by no means a newbie either. I am on my 5th game as Axis vs. AI since the release of the game. Losing 35-45 planes on GS sortie/mission makes running GS pointless as the entire air force will be depleted by turn 10. At this point I will have to go back to 1.08 or simply ignore GS and ground attacks entirely and just run recon and naval patrol when needed.

With that said, great to see the recognition and quick response/efforts to rectify things (not just this issue) from Erik, Joel and the entire team.

[Khanti]

ORIGINAL: Joel Billings

This is probably WAD. Interesting that your losses for the game to date are not that far off from the historical losses at this point. (...)

Losses can't be historical.
If I play more aggressively, losses will be higher. If playing more cautious, losses should be lower.
Trying to get historical looses or even close to historical ones, is bad direction. Let them be dependent on the actions in game and their frequency, not on history.
The old dilemma of how much a game should resemble a real life history. I always say, that military simulation's connection to the history ends after the player's first move. And it should stay that way.

Just my 2 cents

[Khanti]

ORIGINAL: PeteJC

Losing 35-45 planes on GS sortie/mission makes running GS pointless as the entire air force will be depleted by turn 10.

That is. Losses can't be that high as this way all units will be run be fresh green recruits after initial phase.

[Hardradi]

.

[PeteJC]

I have done a test to see how many bombers are lost due to flak and OPS. I left out fighters as their losses do not seem that severe or have changed much since the new patch. I have also left out H2H losses as they seem normal.

I did the test on turn 2 of a game that had its original set-up done in the .08 patch, but I saved it at the end of turn 1 so I believe it should "read" as an original .11 patch but I am guessing so someone correct me if I am wrong. My GS doctrine was set at 16K feet/40 PctFly/100MisPct/100EscPct.

I randomly did 34 attacks (all with GS) along the entire front. In a nutshell 4,088 bombers flew and 351 never came back (8.6%). The losses were 50/50 between flak (4.5%) & OPS (4%). The numbers changed very little after I took out the two best & worst results.

So does a 4.5% loss rate due to flak and a 4% loss rate due to operations seem reasonable. Seems a bit high to me but I honestly don't know. Does anyone have the historical numbers? The specific attack #s are below:

GS at 16K feet and 40% Readiness Turn 2 of German GC
of total bombers of total losses
#Bmbr Flak OPS Total Total % Flak % OPS % Flak % OPS %
35 3 1 4 11.4% 8.6% 2.9% 75% 25%
27 7 0 7 25.9% 25.9% 0.0% 100% 0%
87 0 1 1 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0% 100%
217 12 6 18 8.3% 5.5% 2.8% 67% 33%
94 0 13 13 13.8% 0.0% 13.8% 0% 100%
28 0 4 4 14.3% 0.0% 14.3% 0% 100%
25 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - -
98 2 3 5 5.1% 2.0% 3.1% 40% 60%
150 4 10 14 9.3% 2.7% 6.7% 29% 71%
83 5 0 5 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 100% 0%
214 33 6 39 18.2% 15.4% 2.8% 85% 15%
94 0 3 3 3.2% 0.0% 3.2% 0% 100%
19 0 1 1 5.3% 0.0% 5.3% 0% 100%
102 6 4 10 9.8% 5.9% 3.9% 60% 40%
69 11 2 13 18.8% 15.9% 2.9% 85% 15%
142 11 4 15 10.6% 7.7% 2.8% 73% 27%
58 11 2 13 22.4% 19.0% 3.4% 85% 15%
172 4 7 11 6.4% 2.3% 4.1% 36% 64%
205 8 2 10 4.9% 3.9% 1.0% 80% 20%
238 1 6 7 2.9% 0.4% 2.5% 14% 86%
134 0 4 4 3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0% 100%
185 6 5 11 5.9% 3.2% 2.7% 55% 45%
376 18 21 39 10.4% 4.8% 5.6% 46% 54%
164 9 7 16 9.8% 5.5% 4.3% 56% 44%
259 3 23 26 10.0% 1.2% 8.9% 12% 88%
90 0 7 7 7.8% 0.0% 7.8% 0% 100%
102 0 1 1 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0% 100%
20 9 0 9 45.0% 45.0% 0.0% 100% 0%
164 9 7 16 9.8% 5.5% 4.3% 56% 44%
145 2 1 3 2.1% 1.4% 0.7% 67% 33%
132 12 9 21 15.9% 9.1% 6.8% 57% 43%
55 0 1 1 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0% 100%
28 0 3 3 10.7% 0.0% 10.7% 0% 100%
77 0 1 1 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0% 100%
4088 186 165 351 8.6% 4.5% 4.0% 53% 47%

*3402 140 143 283 8.3% 4.1% 4.2% 49% 51%
* Taking out the 2 worst (red) and 2 best (green) results.

[PeteJC]

sorry for the crappy formatting. I cannot seem to copy this over as a picture.

[DeletedUser44]

ORIGINAL: loki100

A) an opinion that I personally don't share
B) I have seen complete destruction but its usually of bombers well over enemy territory, I've never seen the I153 issue you quote but then I manage to escort my bombers most of the time
C) well I've shot a lot of them down somehow:

D) LW is efficient, even in March 43 I'm winning the air war and delivering the sort of GS that wins battles - or inflicts heavy losses on the Soviets


The problem with the 'historical losses' metric is it assumes that players are trying to match historical usage.

Even in 1941, you should be able to separate off the supply demand for your bombers than for your front line formations. The tricky bit is ensuring supply for the shorter ranged fighters.

I've used the LW all this game apart from in the first winter when I reverted to keeping the fighters as a screen for the non-blizzard turns.

grr.... you should know better.

Losses from what turn? What game version(s) were played?

I highly doubt it was the same game version throughout.
If was it, then it was going to be v1.0.old.crap.

Throwing up loss screens without context is meaningless & irrelevant.

Even then, it hasn't been using the most recent version that the issues are being reported against now.

Even the AC loss accounting has changed(FLAK vs OPS). So your AC data is even more out-of-wack compared with what players are currently seeing and are concerned about.

And I am quite confident there have been, literally, 1000's of micro-changes to the code-base that have not been disclosed or reported.

Your old AARs and game data is just that - old.

[DeletedUser44]

ORIGINAL: PeteJC

I have done a test to see how many bombers are lost due to flak and OPS. I left out fighters as their losses do not seem that severe or have changed much since the new patch. I have also left out H2H losses as they seem normal.

I did the test on turn 2 of a game that had its original set-up done in the .08 patch, but I saved it at the end of turn 1 so I believe it should "read" as an original .11 patch but I am guessing so someone correct me if I am wrong. My GS doctrine was set at 16K feet/40 PctFly/100MisPct/100EscPct.

I randomly did 34 attacks (all with GS) along the entire front. In a nutshell 4,088 bombers flew and 351 never came back (8.6%). The losses were 50/50 between flak (4.5%) & OPS (4%). The numbers changed very little after I took out the two best & worst results.

So does a 4.5% loss rate due to flak and a 4% loss rate due to operations seem reasonable. Seems a bit high to me but I honestly don't know. Does anyone have the historical numbers? The specific attack #s are below:

GS at 16K feet and 40% Readiness Turn 2 of German GC
of total bombers of total losses
#Bmbr Flak OPS Total Total % Flak % OPS % Flak % OPS %
35 3 1 4 11.4% 8.6% 2.9% 75% 25%
27 7 0 7 25.9% 25.9% 0.0% 100% 0%
87 0 1 1 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0% 100%
217 12 6 18 8.3% 5.5% 2.8% 67% 33%
94 0 13 13 13.8% 0.0% 13.8% 0% 100%
28 0 4 4 14.3% 0.0% 14.3% 0% 100%
25 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - -
98 2 3 5 5.1% 2.0% 3.1% 40% 60%
150 4 10 14 9.3% 2.7% 6.7% 29% 71%
83 5 0 5 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 100% 0%
214 33 6 39 18.2% 15.4% 2.8% 85% 15%
94 0 3 3 3.2% 0.0% 3.2% 0% 100%
19 0 1 1 5.3% 0.0% 5.3% 0% 100%
102 6 4 10 9.8% 5.9% 3.9% 60% 40%
69 11 2 13 18.8% 15.9% 2.9% 85% 15%
142 11 4 15 10.6% 7.7% 2.8% 73% 27%
58 11 2 13 22.4% 19.0% 3.4% 85% 15%
172 4 7 11 6.4% 2.3% 4.1% 36% 64%
205 8 2 10 4.9% 3.9% 1.0% 80% 20%
238 1 6 7 2.9% 0.4% 2.5% 14% 86%
134 0 4 4 3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0% 100%
185 6 5 11 5.9% 3.2% 2.7% 55% 45%
376 18 21 39 10.4% 4.8% 5.6% 46% 54%
164 9 7 16 9.8% 5.5% 4.3% 56% 44%
259 3 23 26 10.0% 1.2% 8.9% 12% 88%
90 0 7 7 7.8% 0.0% 7.8% 0% 100%
102 0 1 1 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0% 100%
20 9 0 9 45.0% 45.0% 0.0% 100% 0%
164 9 7 16 9.8% 5.5% 4.3% 56% 44%
145 2 1 3 2.1% 1.4% 0.7% 67% 33%
132 12 9 21 15.9% 9.1% 6.8% 57% 43%
55 0 1 1 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0% 100%
28 0 3 3 10.7% 0.0% 10.7% 0% 100%
77 0 1 1 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0% 100%
4088 186 165 351 8.6% 4.5% 4.0% 53% 47%

*3402 140 143 283 8.3% 4.1% 4.2% 49% 51%
* Taking out the 2 worst (red) and 2 best (green) results.

4% OPS loss rate is exceptionally reasonable.
4.5% Flak loss rate is acceptable.

Suggestion(s)
-------------
I would lose the last 2 columns of your data. I can easily get that from eye-balling the previous 2 columns (which is more difficult now).

Qualifying how your percentages were calculated would save others from having to go in and reverse-engineer it.

You still need to disclose how you calculated the last row, listing the totals percentages. (this can be done in a variety of ways, each skewing the results differently)
--------------

13% has been cited as the historical OPS losses on the Eastern Front through 1941. But it was calculated as:

Total OPS AC losses/Total AC losses(from all sources)

So, it cannot be used as a benchmark in this case. Whatever historical benchmarks that do exists are almost certainly going to be based on "Sorties", which we do not really have in WiTE2. [&:]

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Sauron_II
...
And I am quite confident there have been, literally, 1000's of micro-changes to the code-base that have not been disclosed or reported.

Your old AARs and game data is just that - old.

och forgive me for reporting on MP games that run to mid-43, clearly of no value at all

in the meantime despite all the patches I still have a high morale, high exp LW that I manage to get a lot out of turn after turn

[jubjub]

Double the losses. These kind of results completely drain any fun that one could get from the air war. Also the Anti-Aircraft devices listed for the Soviets dont make a lot of sense? Apparently the Shermans from neighboring hexes are shooting at the Germans? All of them? From 10 miles away? Shooting at dive bombers flying at high speeds?

I made a bug report about this issue a while back. I thought they had fixed it.

[jubjub]

Just playing around with some of my old SP saves and I've been noticed extremely high flak losses right at the end of a ground hex. Like right before the combat result is about to be calculated, bombers end up suffering extreme losses.

These are planes that crash on landing because of flak damage, and that's why they show up at the end of the combat. These losses used to be ops losses, but they were reclassified a few patches ago. I've found them to be pretty excessive as well.

[Rosencrantus]

Yeah that's what I thought, though what initially threw me off was me not expecting those flak losses to jump 30-40+ at the end, which is a bit crazy.

[DeletedUser44]

ORIGINAL: Rosencrantus

Yeah that's what I thought, though what initially threw me off was me not expecting those flak losses to jump 30-40+ at the end, which is a bit crazy.

The change in the loss accounting has thrown everyone for a loop.

Right now, it is hard to determine if losses are excessive or WAD.

I strongly feel that better .csv logging is desperately needed to unravel this.

[Hardradi]

I did some testing yesterday based on older versions of the game compared to the current version.

This testing showed that Ops losses have reduced about 29% while flak losses have increased by 200%.

Even running small 12 bomber attacks on weak Soviet forces have about a 12% loss ratio usually around 50% ops and 50% flak. Same ratio as PeteJC mentioned.