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Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. The Western Front.

Combat Logs.

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Europe. End of Turn.

(1) Germany was able to annihilate, conquer Poland and conquer Denmark.
(2) Germany closed the Baltic, avoided the 2 French Sub Gps that sortie there prior and moved an additional 3 CPs, for a total of 4, out.
(3) Currently only 3 CPs are needed for the 3 Swedish RPs; however, Germany is planning far, far ahead for shipping the Finnish Pesto RP through the Baltic. Why not?
(4) CW & France did manage to knock out by strat bomb 2 German RPs and sink the KM A Grap Spee.
(5) However; due to reorg of CPs knocked out (i.e., aborted) by Italian Subs in the Atlantic, the CW was unable to get any troops to France.
(6) Germany was able to begin their redeployment from east (Poland) to west (France & Low Countries).
(7) Until Germany gets that para unit, I don't see them going into Holland or Belgium due to the threat of the Rotterdam (or Antwerp) redoubt.
(8) Unless, that is the CW is out position to make those threats.
(9) So, vigilance on the part of the CW to maintain those threat is paramount while Germany doesn't have a para unit.

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Battle of the Atlantic (BOA). Threats, Risk, Escort & Patrol Examples.

(1) I covered this example is a previous thread, but wanted to covered again in this threat (i.e., AAR).
(2) I'm using MAGIC to generate risk assessment reports in order to help be set allied Atlantic patrols (boxes 4 & 3) and escorts (box 0 with the CPs).
(3) One thing I keep going back and forth on is how to handle patrols when faced with a surprise threat (i.e., Italian subs).
(4) I use not to put out patrols in sea areas under threat from surprise.
(5) I've recently change that to putting out a "minimum" patrol to maximize the chance of "saving" surprised CPs.
(6) The thought is that if a sacrificial escort finds when the surprising subs do too (from 40%x50% to 30%x40% or 20% to 12%) that the CPs won't be surprise and can escape (i.e., abort).
(7) However; there is a case when the sacrificial escort finds and the surprising subs don't (e.g., 40% x 50% (or 40%) or 20% to 16%), in which case because the escorts don't get any surprise points that the "found" surprising subs may choose avoid damage or choose a combat with no risk (e.g., naval air when no air is present) and continue to round 2, naval search.
(8) LESSON LEARNED. When this happens, as frustrating it is to have the surprising side not find but able to continue the naval battle, ABORT. Specifically, a suspiring Italy does not find, but RN/FR in [4] do, Italy gets all the surprise points, is able to avoid damage, a frustrated CW & French stay and then in round 2 is surprised by Italy that finds and they don't!!!!
(9) A lesson, as you shall see in the remaining posts for this turn, was taught to the CW & French TWICE before they took it to heart!
(10) I've now changed my view on sending out patrols to sea area(s) under threat of surprise.
(11) I'm now more in the camp of don't if I'm relucent to abort from that sea area if you do find and the surprisor doesn't.

Threats. MAGIC. Risk Assessment. Patrols & Escorts.

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Battle of the Atlantic (BOA).

Combat Logs.

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Battle of the Atlantic (BOA).

(1) Italian Sub Gps (three) failed to find in Cape St. Vincent in their initial surprise round.
(2) However; RN patrol in [4] (and not [3] as logged) did.
(3) Italy was able to use enough SPs to reduce their risk (surface) to none.
(4) The French CA managed to make their risk as remained.
(5) Instead of aborting, the allies with 7 CPs in CSV and also a loaded French TRS decided to stay and paid the price.
(6) The 3 surprising IT Sub Gps round, the RN & French didn't and surprise (attack) the escorted RN/FR CPs and FR loaded TRS in [0].
(7) Using 3 CPs, the IT Subs had a chance to sink the loaded French TRS but only managed to damage it, in addition to outright aborting 3 CPs.
(8) The RN & French aborted after this disastrous round.
(9) This combat (abort), hosed the CW convoy lines.
(10) In order to mitigate, the CW took a naval to RTB other, non unused CPs at sea and to reorg 10 CPs, which required a 3rd naval for the CW to send out CPs and reconstitute most of their loss production.
(11) A SIGNIFICANT OVERSIGHT by the CW was that they didn't keep in CPs, or sea lift, in reserve in case supply got cut to the Med and their fleeting operation out of Malta.
(12) The impact of this which you'll see post oil (reorg) phase!
(13) The CP aborts in the graphic below include both force aborts (i.e., during risk resolution) and voluntary aborts (i.e., not sticking around for another potential round of naval combat).
(14) Interestingly, CPs sunk on turn 1, which equate to 0.8 GMT sunk is on par with actual allied war losses of 0.7 GMT for 1939 (though there's still the 02ND39 turn to play).
(15) One thing I haven't been able to factor into the game vs historical comparison are CP aborts.
(16) Note the forced and voluntary allied CP aborts equated to 2.6 GMT, which is significant.
(17) Also, I should note that allied CP losses include all sea areas (i.e., for now include the Atlantic and Med).

BOA Convoy Losses (Game & Historical).

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. MTO.

Combat Logs. Attack Planning.

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. MTO. End of Turn.

(1) DISATER for the RN! Most of their own making.
(2) Strong RN carrier forces [4] & [3] into the Italian Coast did "bait" Italy into entering the war.
(3) Unfortunately, for the CW & French, the Italians managed to take a lot more than the bait offered.
(4) Or maybe the bait offered was too much?
(5) The Italians managed to find and surprise the RN carrier task force [4] off the Italian coast.
(6) They even used 4 SPs to fight a surface and then 6 SPs to place an X and then a D risk on the RN CV Furious with carrier air group unable to fly off due to surprise.
(7) The RM had a 60% chance to sink the Furious outright with the X and then a 70% chance to sink the damage CV with the D.
(8) Kudos to the CV Furious damage control parties, who manage to save the carrier both against the X and then then D.
(9) Prior to any risk resolutions, given the RM willingness to put X and D (if necessary) on the Furious, the targeted CV and air group only had a 12% chance of surviving.
(10) I think some Victoria Crosses are due to the sailors and officers that kept the carrier alive!
(11) As mentioned previously, a MAJOR TACTICAL MISTAKE by the RN was allowing supply to the major naval forces in Malta being broken without any reserve CPs available to try to restore that supply before the turn ended!
(12) On land, Italy capture Corsica and made a strong move into Tunisia with plans for the conquest of Tunisia, Algeria and possibly even Morocco.
(13) Note that their Mtn corps participated in the land combat to take Corsica and was then redeployed to Tunisia.
(14) For some reason Italian AP planners against Tunis, Tunisia, thought the out of supply French inf corps was also flipped (i.e., DF=1 vs 6), which it wasn't.
(15) Maybe they were looking ahead.
(16) By the way, MWIF shows this French corps as isolated, which it is NOT. An "infinite" supply path exist through Algeria and Mauritania.
(17) Italy's designs on French North Africa will be aided by the damaged French TRS group, which will take 2 turns to repair at which time France may have to worry about ground pushes from Germany & Italy into mainland France.
(18) Gibraltar, which has no naval units based there, is also isolated.
(19) MWIF also shows the LBA Terr in western Cyrenaica as isolated, which (again) it is not!

West Med. Italian Coast. East Med.

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. PTO. Hawaii Defense.

(1) To deter any thought by Japan of invading Hawaii, the US is planning on reinforcing the Hawaiian islands to the max.
(2) On the first allied impulse, Nimitz and arty div, which had to be in that order, were debarked to Maui.
(3) Also on the first allied impulse, AA div embark on the same transport Gp as the arty div was debarked to Honolulu.
(4) Then, later in the turn, Nimitz was embark and then immediately debark to Honolulu.
(5) A fighter wing was also transported and debarked to Honolulu.
(6) US plans to move in an additional garrison and fighter wing to Honolulu.
(7) Also, redundant supply lines through the Christmas islands and possibly the Marshalls are planned to increase the security Hawaiian islands.
(8) After securing the Hawaii, the US plans call for garrisoning of Midway, Dutch Harbor and Pago, Pago (not necessarily in that order).

Hawaiian Archipelago Aleutians. Polynesia.

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Destroyed, Damaged & Interned.

Destroyed. Dry Dock. Interned. BP Report.

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939.

Construction Pool. Reserve Pool (Aircraft, PIL, O-Chits). Isolated and/or Un-Oiled.

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939.

Partisan Check. Use Oil.

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Production

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Global Maps.

Control. Units. Active Axis. Active Allied.

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Victory Totals.

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Start of Turn.

Trade. Reinforcements. Initiative.

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939.

Weather & Actions Summary.

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. The Western Front.

Narrative.
Germany’s intended strategy on this front was sitzkrieg until the arrival of their FJR (paratrooper) corps on turn 4, Mar/Apr 1940. As such, Germany voted for the Axis powers to move second if winning the initiative. However; Italy and Japan had different visions and voted to move first in such a case. The Axis did indeed win the initiative and with majority rule elected to move first.

Germany's OKH viewed the concession of moving first as a political concession to an unofficial ally, Japan, which wished to maintain the initiative against the Nationalists in southern and central China and possibly the CCP in northern China. Italy and its ongoing operations in the Mediterranean were a different story.

OKH also viewed this concession as a favor to Italy, allowing them to maintain their initiative against the French in Tunisia and possibly Algeria; especially given the French TRS Gp was put out of action last turn by Italian Subs. However; pressure was applied by El Duce via an appeal directly to Adolf Hitler for German military action on the Western Front in support of Italy in the Med. Specifically, action that would discourage or minimize the chance that the CW would or could move reinforcement in a timely fashion to French North Africa. With only 2 RN TRS Gps in the UK and in a position to move UK reinforcements to French North Africa, this boiled down to the reversal of Germany’s Sitzkrieg West Front plans.

Specifically, a German invasion of Holland and the capture of Amsterdam (the capital) on the first axis impulse. However; with their FJR corps still in production and snow in the north temperate (i.e., amph invasion for the North Sea not allowed) this meant that there was no chance to seize Rotterdam on the surprise invasion impulse. This meant that Rotterdam would be open to UK reinforcement and the dreaded (from Germany’s perspective) Rotterdam redoubt. But that was exactly the tension that Italy wanted to put the CW under in the hopes that the CW would choose to send the 2 UK white print corps to Rotterdam vs reinforcing French North Africa. Additionally, if the CW reaction went as Italy desired, the CW would be forced to take a combine, limiting their naval moves to two and giving Italy (at least initially) more freedom in the West Med. Recall that allied supply through both the West & East Med were broken last turn and was still broken at the start of this turn. Also broken, and still broken, was allied supply through Cape St. Vincent, meaning that supply to Gibraltar and French North Africa was and is still broken.

Part of El Duce’s sell to Hitler was that the CW may not establish the Rotterdam redoubt but instead send those two UK white print corps to French North Africa via Cape St. Vincent, debark Morocco, and rail to Tunisia and/or Algeria. El Duce argued that the CW may even take a naval. Regardless of a naval or combine, if the UK sent the two corps to French North Africa, then no Rotterdam redoubt and Germany would capture Rotterdam next axis impulse simply by walking in and getting Germany’s Case Yellow off to a head start. While Hitler and OKH listened politely but skeptically to El Duce, they weren’t buying his argument that the CW would not elect for the Rotterdam Redoubt.
After much discussion between Hitler and OKH, Hitler made the dictate to OKH’s frustration that Germany would indeed support his ally Mussolini by “immediately” invading the Netherlands. Hitler told his Generals that they were soft and that the Wehrmacht support by the Luftwaffe and the Kriegsmarine could easily dig out any UK forces foolish enough to move into Rotterdam. Especially given their performance and quick dispatch of Poland last turn. So, the Fuhrer order was given, “Invade Netherlands, immediately”.

With only a 30% chance that the US would react to this aggression, they did; but modestly with only a 1-value chit added to their Ge/It entry pool. The Netherlands aligned to and immediately sought help from the British, adding 32 BPs to their (CW) armed forces. Though Amsterdam, and eventually Holland, was lost; the CW did indeed take a combine and sent two white print corps and a fighter group to Rotterdam. Assuming that the UK Rotterdam redoubt can hold out this turn, which isn’t a bad assumption, the UK plans to even add a third unit, an artillery div, to the Rotterdam defense.

The CW even had plans with the assistance of the Dutch TRS Gp setup in Paramaribo, Dutch Guyana, to use their second naval move to reestablish supply to Gibraltar and French North Africa via NED TRS Gp in the CSV and get the UK III inf corps in Gibraltar to French North Africa. However; this plan was thwarted by excellent RM intercepts of French supply CPs in the West Med; requiring the CW to use their second naval move to bring a supply CP into the East Med to get Malta back in supply. The French navy accomplished supply to Gibraltar and French North Africa via Cape St. Vincent.

The Rotterdam redoubt was unmolested by Germany for the remainder of the turn. Germany did bring in significant land and air reinforcements from Poland to the Western Front. Also, during the surprise invasion impulse, the Luftwaffe did have a modestly successful port strike sinking the Dutch CA De Ruyter and flipping the CA Java.

The Western allies had three ineffective strategic bombing raids against Germany and an ineffective port strike as the 3 KM CAs in Kiel.
Near the end of the turn, Germany did attempt to establish a presence in the North Sea with two obsolete BBs; only to see both BBs heavily damaged and avoiding being sunk through excellent damage control.

Combat Logs.

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. The Western Front.

End of Turn.

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. MTO.

Narrative.
Italy, though active, only took combined actions this turn to continue its offensive against France in its colonies of Tunisia and Algeria. Itay’s continued offensive includes combat at sea, in the air, and maneuvering on land but no combat. Balbo and his army (HQ-I, mech corps, inf div) that took Corsica from the French were transferred to Tunisia to put force behind Mussolini’s goal of taking Tunisia, Algeria, and possibly even Morocco from the French. An Italian infantry corps and artillery div in Tripoli were placed under Balbo’s command, formally designated the Italian Desert Army Group Balbo.

With the French TRS Gp damaged last turn and out of action this turn, the RN 3 TRS Gps and the Queens were the only hope for getting reinforcements to French North Africa. Well, that was until the NED TRS Gp set up in Dutch Guyana became aligned to the RN after Germany’s DOW on the Netherlands on impulse 1. There was a plan by the British during the first Allied impulse to use the 2nd naval and 3rd land move of the CW’s combined (1st naval and 1st & 2nd land moves were to get two white print corps to Rotterdam) to move the UK inf corps in Gibraltar to Morocco and then rail it Tunisia or Algeria depending on need. However; that plan was blown up when the Italian RM successfully intercepted 2 separate French CP supply attempts to run past the RM in the West Med and establish a critical supply line to Malta through the East Med. These two successful intercepts were a 9% event that forced the CW to use their 2nd naval move to move an RN supply CP from Aden into the East Med.

The two successfully intercepted French CPs remained unescorted and alone except for the RM in the West Med. The French did move a CP to Cape St. Vincent which established a “second” but very fragile supply line to Malta through the West Med.
Later in the turn, the RM did manage to sink both French CPs in the West Med, breaking that supply line. And, the RM moved a cruiser force into the East Med that also managed to sink the RN supply CP operating there. Then, the turn ended before the CW could get another chance to replace and reestablish supply to Malta, which meant that the RN fleet based there once again could not be oiled. This RN fleet is composed of 1 CV, 2 CVLs, 3 CAGs, 4 BBs, 3 CAs & 2 CPs and puts the CW at a major disadvantage versus the Italian RM in the Med.

Mussolini’s thrust west into French North Africa comes at the cost of a “lightly” defended Cyrenaica vs Wavell’s 8th army operating out of Egypt. The UK Royal Mot eng div captured Bardia, Tobruk and Benghazi. Mussolini is counting on his fleet to blunt Wavell’s push into Cyrenaica.

Combat Logs.

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. MTO.

End of Turn (1/2).