ORIGINAL: Thayne
The United States was not 'expecting' an attack. Rather, it was 'suspecting' an attack. There was no certain information that Japan would move against even Malaysia and the Philippines. Even though Japanese ships were on the move, Japan was careful to keep its fleet operations from showing any overt signs of attacking U.S. or British interests.
Actually they were expecting and had a fairly good idea where it would fall, but they just didn’t know when.
On December 4, a series of meeting were taking place between Admiral Thomas C. Hart USN and Admiral Sir Tom Phillips when the were initially informed of a Japanese task force moving south consisting of three ships, but was later revised to 27 transports well south of Saigon heading west. The only destination could be Siam or Malaya.
An agreement was reached between the two men, which allocated 57th Destroyer Division (Whipple, John D. Ford, Edsall, and Alden) to Singapore to help screen Prince of Wales and Repulse.
"I HAVE JUST ORDERED THE DESTROYERS AT BALIKPAPAN TO PROCEED TO BATAVIA ON THE PRETEXT OF REST AND LEAVE. ACTUALLY, THEY WILL JOIN YOUR FORCE." Admiral Thomas C. Hart USN
Admiral Sir Tom Phillips correctly believed that the invasion fleet was head toward Malaya, and ordered the fleet to be ‘ready to put to sea at short notice’.
“If the American destroyers did not arrive in time, he would sortie without them. At this time, virtually all units of the Asiatic Fleet were already moving south into the Dutch East Indies. The light cruiser Marblehead and 58th Destroyer Division (Paul Jones, Stewart, Bulmer, Barker and Parrot) were fueling at Tarakan. They left Balikpapan on the 9th, where all but two destroyers put into port.”
”Taking on fuel at Balikpapan, was the destroyer tender Blackhawk and 57th Destroyer Division with Whipple, John D. Edwards, Alden and Edsall. Blackhawk left for Soerabaja alone on the 7th. The destroyers left a short time later for Singapore, but arrived after Admiral Phillips had sortied without them.”
ORIGINAL: Thayne
Before the war started, allied units were free to track Japanese ships at will on the open waters -- and did so. Through air reconnaisance, the Allies were taking great pains to watch where the ships were going. So Japan had to take great pains not to make it too obvious that the ships were heading off to attack any American, British, or Dutch objectives.
If they took great pains to hide the objective of the Malaya invasion force then they failed, because neither the British nor the Americans were surprised.
ORIGINAL: Thayne
Many of the fleet movements that are necessary to take 30 or more ports on the first day in the game, if they occured in early December 1941, would have been an unequivocal signal that an invasion was underway. The messages that would have gone out to Allied units on the first week of December would have said, "THE JAPS WILL BE LANDING IN A DAY OR SO, PREPARE TO FIGHT!", rather than the cryptic and uncertain messages that were actually set.
I have never argued for 30 invasions, but have pointed out that the belief that surprise was maintained is not backed by history. The senior commanders in Singapore had already determined that the invasion fleet was headed towards Malaya. Senior commanders in the Philippines knew that the Japanese invasion fleet was in Formosa, and want to launch preemptive strikes. Pre-formal war these attacks were not approved.
It was known that war was coming… just not when.
November 3: All Japanese naval encryption codes are changed. U.S. Navy Intelligence considers this an unmistakable portent of war.
November 26: Allied intelligence reports Japanese transports sailing from Formosa (Taiwan), apparently destined for Indochina.
November 27: Magic issues a warning to all American commands: "THIS DISPATCH IS TO BE CONSIDERED A WAR WARNING ... AGGRESSIVE ACTION EXPECTED BY JAPAN IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS."
U.S.S. ENTERPRISE
At Sea
November 28, 1941
BATTLE ORDER NUMBER ONE
1.
The ENTERPRISE is now operating under war conditions.
2. At any time, day or night, we must be ready for instant
action.
3. Hostile submarines may be encountered.
4. The importance of every officer and man being specially
alert and vigilant while on watch at his battle station
must be fully realized by all hands.
5. The failure of one man to carry out his assigned task
promptly, particularly the lookouts, those manning the
batteries, and all those on watch on the deck, might
result in great loss of life and even loss of the ship.
6. The Captain is confident all hands will prove equal to
any emergency that may develop.
7. It is part of the tradition of our Navy that, when put
to the test, all hands keep cool, keep their heads, and
FIGHT.
8. Steady nerves and stout hearts are needed now.
G. D. MURRAY,
Captain, U.S. Navy
Commanding
Approved: November 28, 1941.
W. F. HALSEY,
Vice Admiral, U.S. Navy,
Commander Aircraft, Battle Force
ORIGINAL: Thayne
If one wished to reflect these historical facts in the game, the best way to do so is to limit legitimate targets to regions near legitimate destinations for Japanese fleets. I would argue for placing DEI. Bismark Archipelago, Solomon Islands, and Gilbert Islands to be off limits on the first day. Landings can be created for these targets. However, in the first day of the war they must be located in a Japanese port, so as not to tip off the Allies.
There are a lot of reasons to limit the number and locations of the Japanese invasions that take advantage of turn one “tip off the Allies” isn’t one of them.