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While there is no way of knowing for sure, it is extremely unlikely that Stalin would have declared war on Germany. Stalin was deathly afraid that Communism would collapse in such an event. The Ukraine for example welcomed the German armies as liberators -- that is until they turned out to be as bad or worse that the communists. 'Better the bear we know than the one we don't.'

When Germany invaded Stalin could not really come to terms with it. He hid out in a datcha outside Moscow for 6 weeks and stared at a wall until Molotov dragged him out of it.

Also, IF Germany had taken Moscow that would have effectively taken the USSR out of the fight. Too much of the rail infrastructure went through Moscow. If would have forced Russian industry to move behind the Urals.

No, Stalin was deathly afraid of a German invasion. If the Nazi party did not have the same view of the Russian ethnic groups as they did of the Jews, the USSR would not be around today. If the Nazi's had 'liberated' the Ukraine, outfitted and supplied them, they would have gladly gone after the Soviets. Remember that the forced collectivization in the 30's killed millions of people in the Ukraine. This collectivization places Stalin as one of the largest mass murders of all time -- worse than Hitler and Pol Pot. There was little love of Stalin in the USSR. If the Nazi's had capitalized on that the USSR would have been defeated and Moscow would have been taken before the end of '41. The Siberian solders would have been too little too late.

The only thing wrong with the "supply and outfit the Ukraine" was teh fact the Germnas didn't have the logistics in 41 to supply themsleves, let alone rearm the Ukraine. Perhasp if they had waited a year, but lby the middle fo 42, assuming the Germans didn't just sit on their hands, Stalin's propaganda machine would likely have had the Ukraine and teh rest of the SU at war thinking Germany started it.

I think you are missing something here. If the Germans had not treated Ukranians so poorly, they would have not had the S&L problems. Their rear areas would have been more secure and they would have been able to bring more force to bear on Moscow. And while they didn't have a major surplus of supplies, I am not really refering to supplying and arming the entire population. Plus they had a large amount of captured Russian material from the destruction of the initial Russian forces. I don't have the exact numbers, but at least a couple of divisions could have been outfited to some extent.

Also if Moscow had been taken in '41, there would have been no propaganda machine in '42. [;)] In the case of the USSR, all roads lead to Moscow.

Logistics problems at there root was not enough rail and trucks - partisans hurt, but even if they had hugs and kisses from the Ukraine, they would not have had the transport to bring the requisite force to bear on Moscow, while threatening the southern industrial areas as well. Moscow was important, but not everything.

Check out Hitlers Panzers East. I took Solfies course when he taught at the Naval Postgraduate school. An interesting guy, who crunched the numbers on the problem.

Talking about the possibilites of Germany, what do you think about this "news":

Some historians claim that Nazi-Germany had developed the A-Bomb sooner or later and if Hitler didn't refuse to heavily support the atomic research until 1943, the Germans would surely have developed the A-Bomb before the Allies.

Goebbels even mentioned in his diary that Hitler was too stupid to recognize the power of the research of "heavy water" early enough. Hitler was too late. It's interesting to image what have happened if the Nazis would have possesed Atomic weapons/rockets in 1942/1943...

[X(]

Ciao Frank

Historians may think that, but scientists would be moer skeptical, considering in the early years of teh German program they were using Heisenbugs flawed estimate for teh critcal mass of uranium 9off by a factor of 10 IIRC) and had concluded a bomb was not possible. A large "urban demolition" perhaps, or a power source for underground factories, but i don;t think it was until teh May 43 lectures they realized the mistake....

Here is a decent chronology of teh German program from: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~sanders/ ... onGer.html


Brief Chronology of the German Program
1938
Dec. 22 Otto Hahn sends paper to Lise Meitner containing experimental results that are interpreted by Meitner and nephew Otto Frisch as nuclear fission.
1939
Jan. 6 Hahn and assistant Fritz Strassmann publish their results.
Jan. 26 Niels Bohr, informed by Frisch, announces the discovery in Washington, D.C.
Feb. 11 Meitner and Frisch publish a theoretical interpretation of the Hahn-Strassmann results as nuclear fission.
June-July Heisenberg visits the United States.
Aug. 2 Einstein signs letter to President Roosevelt alerting him to the possibility of a bomb and urging government-sponsored research.
Sept. 1 Bohr and John Wheeler publish a comprehensive theory of nuclear fission.
Sept. 3 War breaks out in Europe.
Sept. 16 The German Army Weapons Bureau assembles scientists to begin fission research.
Oct. 5 The Weapons Bureau takes control of the Kaiser-Wilhelm Institute for Physics in Berlin-Dahlem.
Dec. 6 Heisenberg submits to the Weapons Bureau the first part of a two-part comprehensive report on the prospects and methods for exploiting nuclear fission.
1940
Feb. 29 Heisenberg submits the second part of his report to the Weapons Bureau.
May 3 German troops occupy Norway, seizing the world's only heavy-water production plant at Vemork.
May 19 Frisch and Rudolf Peierls submit a memorandum to the British government estimating the critical mass of 235 U needed for an atomic bomb and urging a bomb research project.
June 15 Using the Berkeley cyclotron, Philip Abelson and Edwin McMillan demonstrate that neutrons captured by 238U lead to the creation of elements 93 and 94, neptunium and plutonium.
July 17 C. F. von Weizsäcker suggests to the Weapons Bureau that neptunium bred in a reactor can be used as the explosive material in a fission bomb.
1941
Jan. 20 Walther Bothe and Peter Jensen report results on neutron absorption in graphite indicating, mistakenly, that graphite cannot be used as a moderator.
Mar. 28 American physicists confirm that plutonium is fissionable, thus usable for a bomb.
June 22 Germany invades the Soviet Union. August Fritz Houtermans reports to German authorities the possibility of using plutonium in a bomb.
Dec. 5 In the wake of total mobilization Erich Schumann, head of research in the Army Weapons Bureau, orders a review of all research projects.
Dec. 6 The Manhattan Project to build the bomb is launched.
Dec. 7 Japan attacks Pearl Harbor; America enters the war.
1942
February The Army Weapons Bureau decides to withdraw almost entirely from fission research and relinquishes the Kaiser-Wilhelm Institute for Physics.
Feb. 26 Heisenberg, Hahn, and other scientists deliver a lecture series on nuclear research to the Reich Education Ministry in Berlin, gaining ministry backing for the project under the Reich Research Council.
April The first neutron multiplication is obtained in a Leipzig test reactor.
[June 4] Heisenberg reports on fission research to Albert Speer, Germany's Minister for Armaments and War Production, and other senior officials.
June 9 Hitler issues a decree, placing the Reich Research Council under Goring and Speer.
July 1 Heisenberg becomes acting head of the Kaiser- Wilhelm Institute for Physics, Germany's main reactor research laboratory, and lays plans for the construction of a working reactor containing heavy water and uranium metal plates.
July Kurt Diebner, supported by the Weapons Bureau, begins reactor construction using the alternative design of metal cubes suspended in heavy water, achieving positive neutron multiplication over the following year.
Nov. 5 Construction of a uranium isotope separation plant begins at Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
Dec. 2 Enrico Fermi and collaborators in Chicago achieve the first self-sustained chain reaction in a pile consisting of uranium spheres embedded in graphite bricks.
1943
January Planning begins for construction of reactors at Hanford, Washington to breed plutonium for a bomb.
May 6 Heisenberg, Hahn, and other scientists deliver lectures on fission research before Göring's German Academy of Aerodynamical Research.
Autumn Berlin research institutes begin moving to southern Germany for safety against Allied bombing raids. The Kaiser- Wilhelm Institute for Physics is split between Berlin and the neighboring southern towns of Hechingen and Haigerloch.
1944
[Jan. 1] Walther Gerlach is appointed "plenipotentiary" of all fission research sponsored by the Reich Research Council.
June 6 D-Day invasion of Europe.
August The Alsos Mission, an American science intelligence unit, arrives Europe.
November The Alsos Mission determines that no German atom bomb exists.
1945
January Gerlach orders the remainder of the Heisenberg and Diebner teams to move south.
March The Heisenberg team in Haigerloch begins war time Germany's last attempt to achieve a critical reactor.
Apr. 23 The Alsos Mission captures scientists and equipment in Hechingen, Haigerloch, and nearby Tailfingen.
May 1-3 The Alsos Mission captures Diebner and Gerlach in Munich and Heisenberg in German-held Bavaria.
May 7-8 Germany surrenders.
July 3 Ten of the captive German scientists are flown from Belgium to England and interned at Farm Hall.
July 16 The first atomic bomb, fueled by plutonium, is detonated in the New Mexico desert.
July 17 Truman, Stalin, and Attlee meet at Potsdam near Berlin to discuss the future of Germany and the former Axis and Axis-occupied nations.
Aug. 6 A uranium fission bomb destroys Hiroshima.
Aug. 9 A plutonium fission bomb destroys Nagasaki.
1946
Jan. 3 The ten captive German scientists are returned to Germany and released under Allied supervision within the British zone of occupation.

Hi all,

Few years ago I watched (German?) TV movie about interrogation of captured German A-Bomb scientists at "Farm Hall" in UK (they were all together in bugged house left alone to talk to each other in order for Allies to learn how far the Germans got with their project)...

Right now I can't remember the title of that movie but it was very very good and gave nice insight...

I highly recommend it!


Leo "Apollo11"