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True, but my plan is to concentrate the good pilots into a couple of smallish Dutch groups ( they have multiple 5 to 10 fighter groups ) which could convert and use the steady replacement rate to maintain a combat capability for some time.

In truth though I don't expect there to be many fighters left in the air over Palembang after about 2 days of combat. Once he lands and I fight my way through his LRCAP I expect KB and his land-based air to be able to generate sweeps of more than 100 zeroes per day on a sustainable basis for several days with LRCAP of 30 to 50 Zeroes plus Oscars. That will, quickly, grind my fighters down.

About 3 days after the invasion goes in if Mike plans things right I expect to be unable to provide any meaningful escort capability and then I'll begin holding the bombers back, rebuilding and settling in for the next round. I can't win this one at Palembang, it's all about holding him, hurting him and attriting him so that other operations which will crucially damage his long-term interests can occur in other areas.

I'm certainly spending time maximising what my fighters etc can achieve but when the time comes they'll fall in droves if he does things right.... there's always the chance though he'll mess up and they'll survive for a medium-term period and so it is reasonable to plan for that also, especially as planning for the medium term dovetails nicely with the needs for the short-term.

In other news, Mike tells me that he's going to upgrade to the new patch. This is great news. UK 18th Division which has been stuck at 67% TO&E since landing in Southern Sumatra can now begin filling out, as can all of those armoured forces.

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

No for two reasons:
1. I have ALL units set to replacements OFF and

2. Why would the amount of supplies fluctuate... It drops to 2 or 3,000 one day, then goes up to 8,000+, then the next day it might be 5,000. It sometimes stays at 5,000 for a few days before shooting up to 8,000 and then varying again.

Sadly it never reaches the 24,000 or so I had when Clark fell... I think this is somehow linked to the US holding other territory in the Phillipines. Maybe it is caught in some sort of transport subroutine? Once Bataan falls I'll see if the variation continues. If it does then that's not the cause but if the variation ceases once other Allied territory in Luzon is taken then we may have found a hint to where the bug lies.


I don't mind though if Manilla falls I'll get to test my "two jaws" DEI aggressive defence all the sooner.

It can still make sense , the units suck it up but as they get damaged they release some which ends up it the Manilla pool.

Apart, of course, from the fact that he wasn't bombing or bombarding.

We're onto 30th January 1942. KB has been spotted up by Formosa which is a great relief as it means it won't be intervening with my forces around the Marshalls...

News:

1. DD Thracian has been given orders to escape from Manilla and on its way to Palembang tangled with an IJN convoy comprising 2 CLs ( Kiso and Kitakami ), several DDs and PBs and at least one xAK. A heavily defended convoy indeed, I wonder what it is carrying. In any case Thracian crossed the T but got hit multiple times by IJN shells. It isn't too badly damaged though and I'll bring it to Soerabaja for repair. I'm quite pleased at being able to pull of this escape from deep within the enemy held zone.

2. Over 200 IJA bombers fly over Manilla and bomb my ground forces there. These guys aren't going to last long due to the supply SNAFU.

3. Over 100 IJA bombers are flying from Singapore to bomb ground troops near Djambi. I am considering putting some LRCAP there and trying to slaughter a lot of bombers. I'm within 31 planes of having the Japanese plane losses equal Allied losses.

4. Sub attack near Eniwetok at 127,108

Japanese Ships
CA Kumano, Torpedo hits 2, heavy damage
PB Kosin Maru #3
xAK Shinwa Maru
xAK Nittai Maru
PB Sento Maru

Allied Ships
SS S-34

Hmm, I wonder if it will sink?

5. Bataan, defended by an engineer unit which appeared there after the road to Manilla was cut off rather unsurprisingly fell. Just Manilla left.

6. USN forces are about 7 days away from their first landings. The IJN has landed troops at Eniwetok and it seems they are beginning to flood the Marshalls with troops.

7. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Shimushiri-jima (132,51)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 681 troops, 3 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 31

Defending force 2174 troops, 14 guns, 38 vehicles, Assault Value = 76

Japanese adjusted assault: 17

Allied adjusted defense: 35

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 0)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), leaders(+), leaders(-)

Japanese ground losses:
37 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Allied ground losses:
32 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 1 (0 destroyed, 1 disabled)


Assaulting units:
1st Raiding Rgt /2

Defending units:
161st Infantry Rgt /8

IJA Paratroopers try to retake Shimishuri Jima. Unfortunately I've been unloading most of 161st Regiment there for the past few days. Paramushiro Jima is due to be reinforced by another Regiment until such time as I have a regiment per atoll. With the Marshalls and the fighting in the DEI due to escalate markedly soon I estimate that a regiment per island should be enough to hold as diversion of more than a division per island really shouldn't be possible without fatally weakening the IJA committment vs the Allied southern thrust.


So, tomorrow we may see a slight LRCAP/bomber fight over the DEI. I'll have to see though just how much of my force I wish to unmask... I'll also have to shuffle the forces to forward bases to avoid revealing my "Secret Jungle Lair"Tm [8D]. It may be better just to sit still and wait for the amphibious assault...

Today, I'll ask everyone to bear with me as this turn marked the first somewhat significant Allied counter-thrusts of the war and, as such, it bears some discussion... Overall things went well, very well and the multi-theatre plan to draw forces away from Kwajalein has been unexpectedly boosted rather significantly.

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 31, 42
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Shimushiri-jima at 132,51, Range 8,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CL Natori
DD Natsugumo
DD Yudachi

Allied Ships
xAK Utahan, Shell hits 15, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
xAK Susan Luckenbach, Shell hits 26, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Don Isidro, Shell hits 38, and is sunk
xAK Eldorado, Shell hits 16, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk

I was thinking of moving these guys back to Paramushiro Jima but I decided to wait an extra day.... Costly mistake.


Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 42 (26 destroyed, 16 disabled)

Motorised Support troops. NO big loss, I'll get the supplies etc in there in another supply run supported by CLs and DDs.


Japanese Ships Reported to be Approaching!
Allied TF begins to get underway
Improved night sighting under 100% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Overcast Conditions and 100% moonlight: 8,000 yards
Range closes to 11,000 yards...
Range closes to 10,000 yards...
Range closes to 9,000 yards...
Range closes to 8,000 yards...
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 8,000 yards
CONTACT: Allied lookouts spot Japanese task force at 8,000 yards
CL Natori engages xAK Eldorado at 8,000 yards
DD Natsugumo engages xAK Eldorado at 8,000 yards
DD Natsugumo engages xAK Utahan at 8,000 yards
CL Natori engages xAK Eldorado at 8,000 yards
DD Yudachi engages xAK Eldorado at 8,000 yards
DD Natsugumo engages xAK Utahan at 8,000 yards
Range closes to 4,000 yards
CL Natori engages xAK Eldorado at 4,000 yards
CL Natori engages xAK Utahan at 4,000 yards
Range closes to 2,000 yards
xAK Eldorado sunk by CL Natori at 2,000 yards
DD Yudachi engages xAK Don Isidro at 2,000 yards
xAK Utahan sunk by DD Yudachi at 2,000 yards
CL Natori engages xAK Don Isidro at 2,000 yards
CL Natori engages xAK Susan Luckenbach at 2,000 yards
DD Natsugumo engages xAK Don Isidro at 2,000 yards
Range increases to 3,000 yards
DD Yudachi engages xAK Don Isidro at 3,000 yards
DD Yudachi engages xAK Don Isidro at 3,000 yards
DD Natsugumo engages xAK Susan Luckenbach at 3,000 yards
DD Natsugumo engages xAK Don Isidro at 3,000 yards
DD Natsugumo engages xAK Susan Luckenbach at 3,000 yards
Range closes to 2,000 yards
CL Natori engages xAK Susan Luckenbach at 2,000 yards
DD Yudachi engages xAK Susan Luckenbach at 2,000 yards
DD Natsugumo engages xAK Susan Luckenbach at 2,000 yards
Murakami W. orders Japanese TF to disengage
xAK Don Isidro sunk by CL Natori at 2,000 yards
DD Natsugumo engages xAK Susan Luckenbach at 2,000 yards
Range increases to 7,000 yards
CL Natori engages xAK Susan Luckenbach at 7,000 yards
DD Natsugumo engages xAK Susan Luckenbach at 7,000 yards
Range increases to 11,000 yards
DD Natsugumo engages xAK Susan Luckenbach at 11,000 yards
DD Natsugumo engages xAK Susan Luckenbach at 11,000 yards
DD Natsugumo engages xAK Susan Luckenbach at 11,000 yards
Task forces break off...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Submarine attack near Madjene at 64,103

Japanese Ships
SS I-165

Allied Ships
xAKL Boelongan



xAKL Boelongan is sighted by SS I-165
SS I-165 attacking xAKL Boelongan on the surface
SS I-165 low on gun ammo, Handa B. breaks off surface engagement and submerges


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Palembang at 48,91

Japanese Ships
SS I-164, hits 7

Allied Ships
ML No. 423



SS I-164 is sighted by escort
ML No. 423 fails to find sub, continues to search...
ML No. 423 attacking submerged sub ....
ML No. 423 attacking submerged sub ....
ML No. 423 loses contact with SS I-164
ML No. 423 fails to find sub, continues to search...
ML No. 423 fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Tarakan at 68,91, Range 19,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
BB Kongo
BB Haruna
CA Takao
CA Atago
CL Jintsu
DD Shiratsuyu
DD Shigure
DD Hatsuharu
DD Nenohi

Allied Ships
PT-37, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
PT-40
PT-46, Shell hits 1, and is sunk

These PTs are escaping from Manilla so I thought I'd disrupt whatever he was planning from Tarakan. His BBs used much of their main gun ammo in this fight so at least I'll be spared the BBs at Balikpapan... I'll vacate for a day or so and then recommence loading of fuel for Oz...



Maximum visibility in Overcast Conditions: 20,000 yards
Range closes to 21,000 yards...
Range closes to 19,000 yards...
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 19,000 yards
CONTACT: Allied lookouts spot Japanese task force at 19,000 yards
DD Shiratsuyu engages PT-37 at 19,000 yards
Range closes to 16,000 yards
BB Kongo engages PT-37 at 16,000 yards
PT-37 sunk by CA Takao at 16,000 yards
Range closes to 13,000 yards
DD Shiratsuyu engages PT-46 at 13,000 yards
Range closes to 10,000 yards
CA Takao engages PT-46 at 10,000 yards
Range closes to 6,000 yards
BB Haruna engages PT-46 at 6,000 yards
PT-46 sunk by DD Nenohi at 6,000 yards
Range increases to 10,000 yards
Range increases to 11,000 yards
Range increases to 12,000 yards
Range increases to 13,000 yards
DD Hatsuharu engages PT-40 at 13,000 yards
Range closes to 12,000 yards
CA Atago engages PT-40 at 12,000 yards
CA Atago engages PT-40 at 12,000 yards
CA Takao engages PT-40 at 12,000 yards
Gamble, L. orders Allied TF to disengage
Range increases to 17,000 yards
CA Takao collides with CL Jintsu at 68 , 91
Range increases to 25,000 yards
BB Haruna engages PT-40 at 25,000 yards
Task forces break off...

Hmm, a collision, that'll be a bit of damage alright.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Eniwetok at 127,108

Japanese Ships
CA Kumano, Torpedo hits 2, heavy damage
PB Kosin Maru #3
xAK Shinwa Maru
xAK Nittai Maru
PB Sento Maru

Allied Ships
SS S-34



SS S-34 launches 4 torpedoes at CA Kumano
S-34 bottoming out ....
PB Sento Maru fails to find sub, continues to search...
PB Sento Maru fails to find sub, continues to search...
PB Sento Maru fails to find sub, continues to search...
PB Sento Maru fails to find sub, continues to search...
PB Sento Maru fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub

With 4 torpedo hits spread over 2 days I'm officially ready to call CA Kumano sunk. That's 3 IJN CAs sunk. Right now I think the IJN CAs are probably more useful than any of their BBs except the Kongo class as the CAs are fast and can sprint into trouble and get back out again without giving my air a lot of opportunities to hit them.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Submarine attack near Madjene at 65,102

Japanese Ships
SS I-165

Allied Ships
xAK Elysia, Torpedo hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage

xAK Elysia is sighted by SS I-165
SS I-165 launches 4 torpedoes at xAK Elysia


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 2nd PA Constabulary Division, at 79,77 (Manila)

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 28 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 5



No Japanese losses



Aircraft Attacking:
5 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 11000 feet *



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Palembang , at 48,91

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 43 NM, estimated altitude 35,810 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 38



No Japanese losses



Aircraft Attacking:
38 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 32810 feet



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 108th/2 Base Force, at 52,64

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 38 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 10



No Japanese losses



Aircraft Attacking:
10 x Ki-43-Ib Oscar bombing from 100 feet



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Balikpapan at 64,97

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 24 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 6



Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 2 damaged

Allied Ships
xAK Islami
xAK Fairfield City



Aircraft Attacking:
6 x G4M1 Betty bombing from 6000 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Asiatic Fleet , at 79,77 (Manila)

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 42 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 26
G4M1 Betty x 40
Ki-21-Ic Sally x 21



Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 5 damaged
G4M1 Betty: 1 destroyed, 16 damaged
Ki-21-Ic Sally: 7 damaged


Allied ground losses:
31 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Aircraft Attacking:
20 x G4M1 Betty bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb
20 x G4M1 Betty bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb
26 x G3M2 Nell bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb
12 x Ki-21-Ic Sally bombing from 10000 feet *
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb
9 x Ki-21-Ic Sally bombing from 10000 feet *
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking USAFFE ...
Also attacking 2nd PA Constabulary Division ...
Also attacking 1st PA Infantry Division ...
Also attacking 11th PA Infantry Division ...
Also attacking 71st PA Infantry Division ...
Also attacking Clark Field USAAF Base Force ...
Also attacking Asiatic Fleet ...
Also attacking 31st Infantry Regiment ...
Also attacking Asiatic Fleet ...
Also attacking USAFFE ...
Also attacking Asiatic Fleet ...
Also attacking USAFFE ...
Also attacking Asiatic Fleet ...
Also attacking 2nd PA Constabulary Division ...
Also attacking 1st PA Infantry Division ...
Also attacking USAFFE ...
Also attacking Asiatic Fleet ...
Also attacking USAFFE ...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Palembang , at 48,91

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 33,810 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 4



No Japanese losses



Aircraft Attacking:
4 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 32810 feet



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 16th Chinese Corps, at 89,39

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 16 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-51 Sonia x 20



No Japanese losses



Aircraft Attacking:
20 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing from 11000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 50 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 42nd Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 16th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 42nd Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 16th Chinese Corps ...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 86th PS Coastal Artillery Battalion, at 79,77 (Manila)

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-Ic Sally x 22
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 23
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 7
Ki-48-Ib Lily x 29



Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-Ic Sally: 9 damaged
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 4 damaged
Ki-48-Ib Lily: 9 damaged


Allied ground losses:
11 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 1 (0 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Vehicles lost 2 (0 destroyed, 2 disabled)


Aircraft Attacking:
22 x Ki-21-Ic Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
23 x Ki-48-Ib Lily bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 100 kg GP Bomb
23 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
6 x Ki-48-Ib Lily bombing from 10000 feet *
Ground Attack: 2 x 100 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 21st PA Infantry Division ...
Also attacking 1st PA Infantry Division ...
Also attacking 11th PA Infantry Division ...
Also attacking 71st PA Infantry Division ...
Also attacking 51st PA Infantry Division ...
Also attacking 86th PS Coastal Artillery Battalion ...
Also attacking 21st PA Infantry Division ...
Also attacking 86th PS Coastal Artillery Battalion ...
Also attacking 21st PA Infantry Division ...
Also attacking 86th PS Coastal Artillery Battalion ...
Also attacking 21st PA Infantry Division ...
Also attacking 1st PA Infantry Division ...
Also attacking 86th PS Coastal Artillery Battalion ...
Also attacking 21st PA Infantry Division ...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on NS KNIL Territory Regiment, at 46,76 (Medan)

I've consolidated the Northen Sumatran Dutch forces and Medan now boasts a garrison of just under 200 AV. Enough to require a real committment of forces to shift.

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 11 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 9
G4M1 Betty x 24
Ki-21-Ic Sally x 18
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 5



Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-Ic Sally: 4 damaged
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 damaged


Allied ground losses:
35 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Aircraft Attacking:
18 x Ki-21-Ic Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
5 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
24 x G4M1 Betty bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 4th Marine Regiment, at 79,77 (Manila)

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 35 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 19



Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 4 damaged


Allied ground losses:
14 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Aircraft Attacking:
19 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 10000 feet *
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 31st PA Infantry/C Division ...
Also attacking 4th Marine Regiment ...
Also attacking 31st PA Infantry/C Division ...
Also attacking 4th Marine Regiment ...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 9th Group Army, at 80,53 (Hengyang)

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid spotted at 36 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 16 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-36 Ida x 21



No Japanese losses


Allied ground losses:
6 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Aircraft Attacking:
21 x Ki-36 Ida bombing from 10000 feet *
Ground Attack: 2 x 30 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 16th Group Army ...
Also attacking 9th Group Army ...
Also attacking 16th Group Army ...
Also attacking 9th Group Army ...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Tapanoeli Gsn Battalion, at 47,88

And here's my ambush. In order to protect my Secret Jungle Lair Tm I flew all the fighters into Palembang and had them LRCAP from there. With a little luck this will make Mike bomb Palembang airfield again in order to catch my planes on the ground. In the face of my FlAK every day of such bombing should cost him a dozen bombers. Meanwhile my fighters will have flown back to their real base ( which is now a Level 3 airfield ) and be recuperating there.

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 11 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 3
Ki-21-Ic Sally x 18



Allied aircraft
H81-A3 x 11
Buffalo I x 7
Hurricane IIa Trop x 4
Hurricane IIb Trop x 8
B-339D x 17
CW-21B Demon x 4
75A-7 Hawk x 3
P-40E Warhawk x 14


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
Ki-21-Ic Sally: 8 destroyed, 5 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Buffalo I: 1 destroyed


Aircraft Attacking:
4 x Ki-21-Ic Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

In total it looks like 2 Zeroes and 14 bombers were downed. In return I lost a Buffalo I. Not a bad exchange but I was really hoping to catch more bombers.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 57th Chinese Corps, at 86,41

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 35



Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 damaged


Allied ground losses:
156 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 15 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled


Aircraft Attacking:
26 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
9 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 1st Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 76th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 36th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 57th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 1st Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 76th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 57th Chinese Corps ...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 57th Chinese Corps, at 86,41

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 15

Lots of air raids on the Chinese forces blocking the road to Sian. I can see 19 additional IJA units moving in from Manchuria. It looks like the IJA is significantly reinforcing its forces east of Sian. They want SIan badly. I only have a 1500 AV reserve but am committing that to the fight. So, 3500 AV of Chinese troops in good terrain with Level 1 or 2 forts vs what looks like it might amount to about 3,000 to 4,000 AV of crack IJA troops with lots of tanks. This will be tough. Fortunately the Chinese Air Force is almost ready for combat and within the week will be committed to battle over this sector.


No Japanese losses


Allied ground losses:
42 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 1 (0 destroyed, 1 disabled)


Aircraft Attacking:
15 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Tapanoeli Gsn Battalion, at 47,88

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 12 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-48-Ib Lily x 39

Excellent, 2 more Sentai to the slaughter.



Allied aircraft
H81-A3 x 8
Buffalo I x 4
Hurricane IIa Trop x 3
Hurricane IIb Trop x 8
B-339D x 13
CW-21B Demon x 4
75A-7 Hawk x 3
P-40E Warhawk x 13


Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-48-Ib Lily: 8 destroyed, 4 damaged

In reality 11 Lilys were downed in this raid but 28 still got through. Hardly a stunning result but still better than nothing. Once again the small number of Hurricanes accounted for the majority of bomber losses. Those 8 to 12 MGs just shred IJAAF bombers.


Aircraft Attacking:
16 x Ki-48-Ib Lily bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 100 kg GP Bomb
12 x Ki-48-Ib Lily bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 100 kg GP Bomb


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Pakanbaroe Det. , at 48,88 (Djambi)

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 16 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 3
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 21
Ki-48-Ib Lily x 5



Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 9 damaged
Ki-48-Ib Lily: 2 damaged


Allied ground losses:
68 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Aircraft Attacking:
5 x Ki-48-Ib Lily bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 100 kg GP Bomb
21 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
3 x G4M1 Betty bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 2nd Prov Chinese Corps, at 76,54 (Kweilin)

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-48-Ib Lily x 9



No Japanese losses



Aircraft Attacking:
9 x Ki-48-Ib Lily bombing from 10000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 100 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 63rd Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 2nd Prov Chinese Corps ...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 37th Division, at 86,41

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 11 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes


Allied aircraft
A-29A Hudson x 9


No Allied losses



Aircraft Attacking:
9 x A-29A Hudson bombing from 6000 feet *
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 lb GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Madjene at 65,102

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 6



Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
xAK Masula
AMC Corfu



Aircraft Attacking:
5 x G4M1 Betty bombing from 6000 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Singapore at 50,84

Japanese Ships
DMS W-13
DMS W-16
DMS W-14
DMS W-19
DMS W-18
DMS W-17

Allied Ships
SS KXII, hits 5



SS KXII launches 2 torpedoes at DMS W-13
KXII bottoming out ....
DMS W-19 fails to find sub, continues to search...
DMS W-18 fails to find sub, continues to search...
DMS W-17 fails to find sub and abandons search
DMS W-19 attacking submerged sub ....
DMS W-18 fails to find sub and abandons search
DMS W-19 fails to find sub, continues to search...
DMS W-19 fails to find sub, continues to search...
DMS W-19 attacking submerged sub ....
DMS W-19 is out of ASW ammo
DMS W-19 is out of ASW ammo
DMS W-19 fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 86,41

This is the IJA attempt to clear the road to Sian. My guys don't do too badly overall.

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 26615 troops, 391 guns, 760 vehicles, Assault Value = 966

Defending force 72109 troops, 513 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 2057

Japanese adjusted assault: 367

Allied adjusted defense: 2511

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 6

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
824 casualties reported
Squads: 20 destroyed, 54 disabled
Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 138 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Vehicles lost 107 (6 destroyed, 101 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
2044 casualties reported
Squads: 11 destroyed, 123 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 174 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 15 disabled
Guns lost 2 (0 destroyed, 2 disabled)

I lost far more troops but most of those were disabled. In terms of squads lost the Japanese lost significantly more than I. In addition I'm also pleased to have detroyed a few tanks and disabled many, many more. The other important thing here is that my troops will gain experience and thus will be better ready to repulse the next assault.

Assaulting units:
20th Recon Regiment
9th Tank Regiment
15th Tank Regiment
20th Engineer Regiment
9th Ind.Mixed Brigade
3rd Tank Regiment
37th Division
5th Tank Regiment
5th Armored Car Co
15th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
4th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
22nd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
6th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
26th Field Artillery Regiment
1st Army
2nd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
1st Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
9th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
4th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion

Defending units:
47th Chinese Corps
33rd Chinese Corps
38th Chinese Corps
3rd Chinese Corps
1st Chinese Corps
34th Chinese Corps
61st Chinese Corps
57th Chinese Corps
40th Chinese Corps
29th Chinese Corps
36th Chinese Corps
76th Chinese Corps
36th Group Army
7th Group Army
1st War Area
8th Group Army
24th Group Army
4th Group Army
39th Group Army
34th Group Army
57th AT Gun Regiment


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 33333 troops, 352 guns, 24 vehicles, Assault Value = 1293

Defending force 51491 troops, 949 guns, 814 vehicles, Assault Value = 1496

Japanese ground losses:
129 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Allied ground losses:
15 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Assaulting units:
24th Infantry Regiment
Kimura Det
16th Engineer Regiment
20th Infantry Regiment
4th Division
66th Infantry Group
16th Recon Regiment
9th Infantry Regiment
4th Tank Regiment
7th Tank Regiment
25th Ind. Engineer Regiment
1st RF Gun Battalion
14th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
2nd Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
31st PA Infantry/B Division
91st PA Infantry Division
194th Tank Battalion
57th PS Infantry Regimental Combat Team
1st PA Infantry Division
14th PS Engineer Regiment
4th Marine Regiment
31st Infantry Regiment
192nd Tank Battalion
45th PS Infantry Regimental Combat Team
11th PA Infantry Division
71st PA Infantry Division
2nd PA Constabulary Division
51st PA Infantry Division
3rd/12th PA Inf Battalion
31st PA Infantry/A Division
21st PA Infantry Division
31st PA Infantry/C Division
41st PA Infantry Division
26th PS Cavalry Regiment
86th PS Coastal Artillery Battalion
61st PA Infantry Div /1
202nd PA Construction Battalion
Cavite USN Base Force
Provisional GMC Gp
88th PS Field Artillery Regiment
II Philippine Corps
803rd Engineer Aviation Battalion
1st PI Base Force
PAF Aviation
Clark Field USAAF Base Force
200th & 515th Coast AA Regiment
Bataan USN Base Force
201st PA Construction Battalion
Far East USAAF
Manila USAAF Base Force
USAFFE
1st USMC AA Battalion
I Philippine Corps
Asiatic Fleet
301st PA Field Artillery Regiment


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Moulmein (55,55)

This is the really big news of the day. The Imperial Guards division and supporting units were besieging Moulmein. Mike is flooding northern China from Manchuria and I've flooded Burma with a few Chinese Corps. Today these Chinese troops proved their worth as they pushed the Imperial Guards division back and begin the long, hard push into Thailand proper... My goal here is to threaten Saigon etc and draw a couple of divisions of IJA troops into action as a blocking force.

Every division committed to this blocking force will be a division which doesn't get sent to Sumatra. Eventually any blocking position will have to be abandoned as enemy forces threaten or make an amphibious in my rear at Moulmein or Rangoon proper. He could, of course, ignore this but if he does so then I'll push into Thailand on a mission to wreck HI.

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 55713 troops, 454 guns, 50 vehicles, Assault Value = 2047

Defending force 19335 troops, 167 guns, 212 vehicles, Assault Value = 625

Allied adjusted assault: 1069

Japanese adjusted defense: 437

Allied assault odds: 2 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), supply(-)

It looks like a paucity of supply cost him dear.

Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3652 casualties reported
Squads: 125 destroyed, 32 disabled
Non Combat: 265 destroyed, 130 disabled
Engineers: 18 destroyed, 34 disabled
Guns lost 25 (16 destroyed, 9 disabled)
Vehicles lost 119 (56 destroyed, 63 disabled)
Units retreated 7


Allied ground losses:
2867 casualties reported
Squads: 68 destroyed, 311 disabled
Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 264 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 12 disabled
Guns lost 1 (0 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Vehicles lost 2 (0 destroyed, 2 disabled)


Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
22nd New Chinese Division
36th Chinese Division
Tenasserim BAF Battalion
BFF Brigade
6th Burma Rifles Battalion
200th Chinese Division
88th Chinese Division
96th Chinese Division
4th Burma Rifles Battalion
24th Chinese Corps
14th Chinese Corps
54th Chinese Corps
1st Burma Division
66th Chinese Corps
1st Burma Auxiliary AA Regiment
108th RAF Base Force
103rd RAF Base Force
107th RAF Base Force
India Command
11th Group Army

Defending units:
14th Tank Regiment
55th Engineer Regiment
Imperial Guards Division
1st RTA/C Division
15th Army
55th Mountain Gun Regiment
21st Medium Field Artillery Battalion


So, all in all January ended with a bang for the Allies.

The IJN lost its 3rd CA in the southern Pacific while Allied forces move closer to their jumping off positions using deceptive routing to avoid expected enemy patrol zones.

The IJA got pushed back from Moulmein and the Imperial Guards division took a beating.

The Japanese air force took a pasting losing over 30 planes in return for a single Allied fighter today. Overall IJAAF and IJNAF losses now exceed Allied aerial losses for the first time in the game, a situation which is rather dangerous for Japan given that it is occurring so early in the game.

Tomorrow more significant ripostes will make their way through his defences and I'll continue to fight forward a little in the DEI for the next 3 or so days. After that time KB will, undoubtedly, show up and shut down my operations as I spotted it two days ago near Formosa - probably going to Takao for fuel and replacement planes and pilots - and any refuelling etc should be completed by now.

Today these Chinese troops proved their worth as they pushed the Imperial Guards division back and begin the long, hard push into Thailand proper... My goal here is to threaten Saigon etc and draw a couple of divisions of IJA troops into action as a blocking force.

Ambitious indeed for late January '42, but if anyone can make it work, you can. Hurricanes appear much more potent in AE than in basic WitP. I'm a bit surprised that the P-40E's don't seem to be doing as well, but when your targets don't have armor, many LMG's are better than fewer HMG's.

No need to apologize for the explanations; many of us love detail. (Except, perhaps, for the ASW reports.)

The other reason is the Hurricanes can reach 36,000 feet and the P40Es only 29,000 or a little higher. In AE altitude is absolutely the most crucial factor in A2A combat ---- it was crucial in real life also but not so crucial in such a simplistic manner, it was a more complex interplay in real life.

Getting those vehicles in Burma is esp nice... How come he has taken Tarakan so late and not even futher S yet ? Ambon should be calling

Why not further south? Well, every time he has moved into Singkawang or near Balikpapan he runs into Force Z or a cruiser force. I think that's slowing him a little. I think also that he is just utterly focussed on flooding the Phillipines with troops in order to get Manilla to fall quickly, something he will be successful in as Manilla is just a function of troops and air support ----- and the supply SNAFU.

Next is either Balikpapan, Sumatra or Java. I'm not sure which...

Well, 1st February 1942 rolls around... When I checked the losses for the previous day it turned out the Allies lost a single fighter in the air and downed 24 IJAF bombers and 2 Zeroes in air to air combat over Sumatra.

In other news Sumatra has received a significant resupply convoy and now has an additional 60 fighters.... at present just over 300 Allied fighters are available in Sumatra which should be enough to get bombers through no matter what for a couple of days. I'm in the process of rebuilding Force Z and building a second BB force around R type BBs. My plan is to hold these BBs out in the Indian Ocean far out of range of enemy bombers, dip in and out of Oosthaven for fuel and then, if the enemy chooses to land at Oosthaven sending those BBs in to tackle the enemy's covering force ( which will definitely have BBs ) and also to force their transports out to sea --- this delay will buy my armoured units ( now about 500 AV strong ) time to deploy to Oosthaven and bolster the defenders there.


In the Pacific the USN is making good progress with its deceptive routing and still hasn't been spotted.

In the north Pacific the buildup of forces in the Kuriles continues with additional CD guns and infantry being readied for the region. I'll have to remember to provide a proper escort force next time though. Not escorting those 4 xAKs was a significant error.


At Singkawang another of my "Nuisance Cruiser" forces went in yesterday evening. I had picked a very aggressive CO as I had spotted IJN BBs/CAs there with my aerial recon B-17s and was hoping to have the Allies slip in close and get a first strike torpedo attack in.... It pretty much worked out that way... As I approached my 1 CA, 1 CL and 5 DDs spotted 2 BBs, 2 CAs and 5 DDs. They got within 1,000 yards of the enemy before being spotted and the first DD to make contact salvoed its torpedoes at one of the BBs securing a penetrating torpedo hit which caused some flooding etc. Unfortunately none of my other DDs bothered to fire torpedoes despite being within 1000 yards of enemy BBs and CAs at night-time.

My CA got hit with an 8 inch and 14 inch shell and one of my DDs is badly damaged. Apart from that my force is pretty much unscathed. The SNAFU with witholding torpedoes despite perfect conditions saved the IJN from a pretty serious grilling there but such is life....

In other news the 40+ Zero sweeps over Palembang continue apace. I am considering sending some Hurricanes and AVG into action against the Zeroes as they must be quite fatigued by now and I might pick up a good exchange rate. Kaga's Zeroes sweep Manilla again. Could he really be about to attack Manilla with CV air again? Over the last two months KB has lost over 250 strike planes ( Vals and Kates ). Given that KB has 6 carriers and each carrier can mass, about 50 strike planes ( 25 Vals and 25 Kates, roughly ) that gives KB a total of 300 strike planes. Since I've taken out somewhere between 250 and 300 it looks like I've pretty much wiped out KB's pre-war strike groups. Given that he's also lost over 100 Zeroes from KB itself pilot experience must be falling a little ( although he can replace fighter pilots relatively easily from land-based IJNAF groups ). I don't expect any fall to be too significant but even a drop from 80 to 90 Exp to 70 Exp lowers to A2A Exp differential from its pre-war level of about 30 to 40 points to no more than 5 to 10 points.

All in all if my plane replacement rate was even half his I'd say that I had won the capacity to gain air superiority in given theatres - although not all theatres at all times. Unfortunately Allied plane replacement rates are very low indeed so I'm not yet able to go toe to toe. I am awfully tempted to mount an ambush of those sweeping Zeroes though.


In Burma I am beginning to follow the Imperial Guards division and push them further back towards Tavoy with most of my force from Moulmein while a small portion of the Moulmein force begins to push eastward into Thailand.

In China I can see over 20 IJA units making for SIan. Subtlety appears to have gone out the window here. Instead everything above 8,000 AV is moving out of Manchuria and into a single hex east of Sian. That's fine though, at least I won't be losing 50 to 100 squads per day to bombardments. My first delivery of supplies using "supply draw" has made it to Changsha dropping roughly 80,000 tons of supplies into the bases in that area. I have another 40,000 at Rangoon ( shipping in from India ) which I will begin moving from Rangoon towards Sian. Supplies are low in the troops trying to hold the Japanese back but 40,000 tons of supplies would solve this problem entirely.


Well, that's about it. I don't expect any major action for another 6 to 7 days at which time the Pacific will light up. Given that it is taking Mike about 36 to 48 hrs to get a turn back I doubt we'll see much for the next 10 to 14 days real time... In the meantime though I have research to write up ( boring ) and Napoleon Total War to try out ( significantly less boring but pretty "rock, paper, scissors" in terms of tactical complexity.

They got within 1,000 yards of the enemy before being spotted and the first DD to make contact salvoed its torpedoes at one of the BBs securing a penetrating torpedo hit which caused some flooding etc. Unfortunately none of my other DDs bothered to fire torpedoes despite being within 1000 yards of enemy BBs and CAs at night-time.

During Cuttlefish's legendary "Small Ship, Big War" AAR, he noted that with multi-round surface action, he at least once managed to expend every last torpedo in his TF. And he was using IJN ships with reloads. Could this be a function of AE vs. WitP? Or perhaps Allied torpedo doctrine is never as aggressive as the Japanese?

Honestly I don't know what the issue was. It could be just bad luck or something else but I have too few data points to tell right now.

In other news... My picket subs have spotted the IJN TF which unloaded at Eniwetok anchored off Kwajalein while another IJN TF has shown up at Kusaie Island and has begun unloading. I was about 3 days from the area with my transports but have kicked them up to 6 hexes per day instead of 4 and am running my 4 CVs in. I want to hinder the landings at Kusaie and begin working over the enemy shipping at Kwajalein. I also want to draw the G4Ms and G3Ms onto my CV CAP to indirectly reduce the threat to my transports... Basically my route had been to run up the Solomons before turning north-east for the run-in to Kusaie and Ponape. I should still take Ponape irrespective of what the enemy landed there but only a tiny force was committed to Kusaie so Kusaie will have to wait for mopping up forces. So, my targets for the first phase are basically- Ponape, Eniwetok, Roi-Namue, Wotje and Maloelap. Other targets will follow in the second wave... What matters in the first wave is taking his Netty bases from him.

In Manilla my supplies are dropping by a steady 1,000 tons per day even though the Japanese aren't bombarding... I think there's definitely some problem with Manilla in this game... Supplies have just evaporated in that hex all game despite the absence of replacements, fort building etc.


My current estimate of KB's location is somewhere between Takao and Singapore. I think it has finished rebuilding its squadrons/refuelling at Takao and is now on its way to Singers to support further amphibious operations... It should take it about 6 days to reach the Kwajalein area ( 2 days to Saipan, 1 day to refuel there, 2 days from Saipan to Truk and 1 day to refuel there ) and that'll give me enough time to carry out the landings I need to carry out... It'll be tight, damned tight but it'll be doable... I don't really expect to have a CV vs CV fight at this stage as I am getting a 5th USN CV in under 2 weeks time and I plan to hang on until that CV arrives before I tackle KB directly.

Well my forces ended up 6 hexes from Kusaie Island as planned and the CVs launched over 100 SBD sorties over the course of the day. 2 PBs and 2 DDs were at Kusaie. Both PBs were hit with multiple 1000lb bombs but the DDs did well, dodging almost everything thrown at them. Fortunately my SBDs managed to get a single hit on each and I figure that with IJN damage control a 1000lb bomb hit pretty much guarantees a kill. My decoy transports will now move into Mavis range east of Kwajalein so that Mike can focus eastward while my real invasion forces move rapidly into their initial landing zones - Ponape and Kusaie Islands. The USN CVs will move slowly eastward in order to interdict IJN surface raiders operating out of Kwajalein and, ideally, mini-KB. Mini-KB appears to have been operating out of Kwajalein since the beginning of the war and I've already tangled with mini-KB on several occasions inconclusively.

I've bearded him a little by pointing out that if he reacts to the Marshalls with KB proper then that'll delay his ability to provide CV support for his landings on Sumatra/Java by at least 2 weeks. I think that might make him wait to commit until he's certain that I have a significant force in play.


In other news he ran some BBs into Balikpapan and sank about 8 xAKs and 2 TKs loaded with fuel. Ah well, such is life. I've moved over 100,000 tons of fuel and about 30,000 tons of supply out of Balikpapan but it looks like my ability to remove what remains is beginning to disappear.

Apart from that not much of any significance has happened. The main focus over the next few days will be between Kwajalein and Truk. I think he won't be able to resist trying to catch some transports and so mini-KB will be showing up either from Truk or Kwajalein... My money is on Kwaj so my CVs will take up a blocking position there --- I also happen to know the ships which were at Eniwetok are there so even if mini-KB isn't there I'll still find some ships to sink and every little bit helps.

Well another day, another aerial ambush....

1. I set up an AVG-based ambush over Balikpapan to catch some Bettys as they tried to raid my shipping loading fuel and supplies there. 12 Bettys came in dumb and happy, 11 were downed and only 1 survived to return home.

2. My CVs swept north of Kusaie island while my Invasion TFs ended up about 90 miles west. Tomorrow they will split in a starfish pattern with some TFs making for Kusaie, others making for Ponape, others for Eniwetok and the majority making for Roi-Namur, Maloelap and surrounding islands. I expect to take losses to my invasion forces, particularly around Ponape but losses are a part of life, c'est la guerre.

3. The Ueberstack from Hell ( UFH ) continues to slowly drible in towards Sian. When the IJA makes a serious effort it really piles on the troops.

4. IJN TFs are seen gathering near the Kuriles. It seems they may try to counter-invade... If they move in I'll send in my BBs and try to rout them. Overall in 2 weeks I'll have an engineer unit, a CD unit and an infantry regiment at each of the two main islands in the Kuriles I now hold. I wasn't set up to reinforce the Kuriles heavily initially as I expected him to counter-attack there in strength immediately, and not give me such a long time to dig in.

5. An Allied SC TF comprising 2 CLs and 6 DDs raided Badeldoab overnight but, unfortunately, no enemy shipping was at the base despite my subs spotting units there yesterday. Ah well, I'll run back to Ambon which is now building up nicely as a base ( the first Bde of an Australian Division is there and I have about 20,000 tons of fuel and 50,000 tons of supplies and the forts are building nicely ), refuel and try again. Eventually I'll hit something worthwhile and every time I do this I'm going to force him to garrison his rear area bases more heavily. Already he is having to garrison the landing zones in the Phillipines with CLs, DDs and a couple of CAs, Singkawang with BBs and CAs... All of this serves to indirectly attrit the spearpoint.


That's about it. Another slowish day....

I've been looking at IJNAF losses as Mike has been making some noises about difficulty replacing KB pilots.... Initially I scoffed at this thinking it was just PsyOps and he'd show up with KB full of 80 Exp pilots. Then I looked at the numbers:
Val losses: 77
Kate losses: 123
Zero losses: 264
Netty losses: Almost 150.

All in all it looks like 600 IJNAF pilots have been killed in the first 2 months of the war. I've been trying to concentrate my attrition on the IJNAF at the expense of the IJAAF but it is only when I look at these numbers that I get to thinking that I may really have impacted them. Still, with such a large pool of trained pilots at war's start 600 pilots should be replaceable shouldn't it? They might be a bit lower in experience but I figure I'll need one more big cull of 300 to 400 pilots over the next month to really make an impact.

Your forces at Ambon are exactly why an early advance by the Japanese into the Southern DEI is highly adviseable. In fact, the 2 SNLF units ticketed for Legaspi on Dec 7th are enough to take out Ambon by themselves. (with a couple cruisers covering it). But either way, you simply cannot let the Allies operate up there past January 1942.

You're doing a great job screwing up the Japanese plans, but your opponent is making some pretty serious mistakes (handling of KB, not closing sea routes, etc.).

Q-Ball,

I think pretty much all of his problems originate from his over-focus on trying to clear Manilla. He routinely has 100 Netties flying there plus KB hits it from time to time... If he diverted those planes to anti-shipping strikes he would achieve more. On the other hand I'm not sure how much more he'd achieve as whenever he brings KB into action I just run away faster than he can hunt and so long as you limit SC TFs to CLs and DDs I find you can pretty much dodge anything Netties throw at you - which I love, it really enlivens the early portions of the game.


In terms of naval search cover though he has Netties operating out of Singkawang - I find my ships near the DEI spotted by them fairly regularly but I'm careful to provide LRCAP to the important TFs and that seems to be putting his Netties off and he also has others operating out of Tarakan. I don't think he has any operating out of Badeldoab but without an Air HQ I am happy that my CLs and DDs can just dodge their bombs.

I also think the new naval search routine is a really subtle piece of work which allows for some truly interesting skillful play. I've operated Force Z within 5 hexes of KB on two separate occasions now and gotten away without being hit by making sure I always end up along an unexpected bearing --- of course one can argue that he should have 360 degree searches but who really wants that wear and tear when you're in the middle of friendly waters ? In any case SC TFs are now many times more survivable in close proximity to land bases. I wouldn't dare to operate CAs too often in these waters though but CLs and DDs are perfect for the task.

I think that land-based air in AE is nowhere near as strong as it was in WiTP. I think, from my reading, that this is realistic and it also hugely increases the survivability and utility of SC TFs. What can really crush SC TFs is KB. If I were Mike now I'd send KB on a port-crushing tour of the DEI and Darwin. To be fair though even that wouldn't achieve its results though IMO as I'd just run away to Perth or Capetown once I realised what KB was up to.

He has somewhere between 50 and 80 Netties trying to close down the DEI ( well, between 40 and 70 as of last turn ) but I just don't think Netties are going to close down the DEI in the face of CLs and DDs. Those ship types are just too nimble.


I think that when I commit Force Z and the R class BBs we'll see the Netties getting their pound of flesh. Of course disrupting the Sumatran invasion for 3 or 4 days will be well worth the loss of 4 BBs and their attendant cruisers. Until then the nimble CLs and DDs will be able to continue making hit and run raids -the other good thing about using CLs and DDs is that they can get repaired pretty quickly in even moderately sized ports so I've been able to keep 1-2 punching with 2 CL TFs. When the first hits something and gets beaten up it goes into dock and repairs while the second hits somewhere else. By the time the 2nd strike force is home most of the first CL TF is repaired and ready for action. Mate that portion up with the undamaged survivors of the 2nd CL TF and it forms another combat-ready TF. Meanwhile the damaged portions of the 1st and 2nd TF continue repairing and are ready for action when the newly formed TF returns from action in a sorry state.


I think the interplay of algorithms which allows for surface raiding is my favourite portion of AE. It is definitely going to change the construction of ships for EA. I think the IJN might just be optimised to do a lot of raiding in EA.



I'd be interested in others conclusions about this.... Are you all finding the same increase in survivability of non-BB/CA TFs within range of Netties?

No question that surface ships are more important in AE, because airpower overall, but particularly LBA, is less-effective. You're right there.

But for that reason, I wouldn't expose R-class BBs, as old as they are, to Netties just to delay an invasion a few days. Those BBs are too important for later, when you need a good BB to cover invasions, because of the reason above.

You have used CL/DD effectively, but a good Japanese player has a counter to that. It's not like Japan lacks CL/DDs, in fact there are piles of them at game start around the DEI, so there should be ample surface ships to cover deep moves.

Fixating on Manila is a big mistake. It is much less important than Singapore.

The importance of surface ships means the Allies have to not just keep track of KB, but you have to keep track of where the BBs are too. Yamato and friends can ruin any party.

Good point. 2 of his BBs are in dock following torpedo hits, 2 more are with mini-KB around Truk/Marshalls. I figure 2 more must be with KB. That leaves about 4 unaccounted for... I think they are around Singers though as I saw BBs moving in there a few days ago --- one reason why I think he must be about to try for Sumatra or Java. I actually kind of hope he lands in Java. He'll be pissed when he realises that only some 150mm guns I couldn't airlift and perma-restricted units remain [:D]


It has been worth it though, Palembang has 1200 AV behind Level 4 forts, I have over 500 AV in armoured units in my Secret Jungle Lair and I have about 2,200 AV at Oosthaven behind Level 4 forts as well as 100 AV each at Djambi and Benkoenen. Wherever he decides to come ashore he is going to find the resistance pretty awesome.

I just don't think Netties are going to close down the DEI in the face of CLs and DDs. Those ship types are just too nimble.

I assume you're not including Boise or any of her sister "CL"s. Are there any CA's that are small and speedy enough to go on these types of raids?

I think that when I commit Force Z and the R class BBs we'll see the Netties getting their pound of flesh. Of course disrupting the Sumatran invasion for 3 or 4 days will be well worth the loss of 4 BBs and their attendant cruisers.

[&:]


Discuss.

Ok, if he doesn't land at Palembang ( which is looking less likely now ) then he's going to land at Oosthaven or Benkoenen.

If he lands at either he is going to have to cover his landings with BBs and CAs in SC TFs....

Day 1 Day:
IJN invasion TFs comprising at least 100 AKs and APs would have to transport a minimum of 6 divisions. I don't think the IJN could have more than 4 BBs tasked to cover the invasion TFs ( 2 would have to accompany KB and another 2 are in the docks after taking torpedo hits from Allied forces while mini-KB had 2 BBs accompanying it when I last ran into it ). IJN CAs would be pretty thin on the ground given that 4 have been sunk so far and several of the rest would need to be committed to KB and covering duty for the IJN invasion TFs.

Day 1 Night:
Force Z rocks into town. It takes heavy damage but damages 2 IJN BBs and manages to break through into the IJN invasion TFs sinking some ships and forcing the rest of the IJN TFs out to sea in order to avoid further damage.


Day2 - Day:
The scattering of IJN TFs out of the invasion hex results in the IJN LRCAP being split between multiple hexes and significantly less resistance to my aerial strikes on Day 2. In addition the 2 BBs of force Z ( which have orders to stay in Oosthaven or Benkoenen after the night of combat ) are covered by pretty much every fighter I can find. They should draw IJN strike groups onto themselves and give my fighters a chance to get in amongst the Vals and Kates and cause some serious damage.

Day 2- Night:
IJN TFs re-organise and come into Oosthaven/Benkoenen again.

Day 3- Day:
Unloading continues but in the presence of significantly less IJNAF and IJAAF CAP Allied bombers continue to score hits on the invasion TFs, CD guns get another shot at the invasion TFs and over the past 3 days ( 6 phases ) the IJN has only managed 2 phases of uninterrupted unloading.

On land my mobile reserve force will be filtering into position on Day 2 and on Day 3 it will be changing from Strategic Move to COMBAT MODE. It will finish changing op mode by the end of Day 4 and can attack on Day 5.


Day 3 Night:
The 2 R class BBs which should be on hand by this stage steam into the invasion hex and meet the IJN covering forces again. Since the IJN BBs, CAs and CLs/DDs have used up torpedoes and ammo in the naval combats of Day 1 the R class ships will take heavy damage but should be able to survive to get in amongst the transports yet again.

Day 4- Day.
IJN TFs find themselves out at sea again, LRCAP is scattered again and IJNAF naval attack sorties come into the base hex only to find Allied CAP at full force yet again.


Day 5- Day. IJN TFs will move back into position following the destruction of the R Class BBs and begin unloading over Day 5 night and uninterruptedly from Day 6. Unfortunately for the IJA Day 5 coincides with the combat capability of my armoured forces and the first full-strength counter-attacks aimed at the beachhead. In addition if he has landed at Benkoenen or Oosthaven Day 5 should see the beginning of the arrival of deeper reserve forces from Palembang.


Given that I think the RN will damage many major IJN combatants although suffering worse itself the real win here lies not in the result of the naval battle but in the disruption to loading such that by Day 5 instead of 10 phases of unloading the IJN will manage only 3 or 4 phases of unloading. That buys me time to bring my reserves into action and prevent the IJA gaining a critical foothold.

I also think that Allied airpower will be able to kill enough IJN shipping to make up for any disproportionate losses to the Royal Navy.


Lastly, if I gut his surface forces at Sumatra it will make the USN forces relatively more untouchable.... Every IJN BB and CA sunk or badly damaged at Sumatra is another IJN BB or CA not available to resist the USN when it begins operating in the area. That helps buy the security of the outpost bases north of Darwin and that's pretty crucial. It also forces Mike only to invade where KB has cleared the way --- and I'm planning the battle of Sumatra as a means of breaking KB's pilot strength. I figure I can let him land troops and hold them so long as I manage to really attrit KB such that it can no longer be assured of winning a battle vs my 5 USN CVs and 1 RN CV.


The above is, of course, only very rough but it gives the rough idea of why I'm willing to lose 4 BBs to disrupt the landings, provide an opening for my airforce and set up KB's strike groups for favourable attrition. The key here is that KB has 6 CVs with some 27 Zeroes each. That's about 160 Zeroes. Right now I'm able to mass about 350 fighters. They're not as good as the IJN Zeroes but 350 fighters does give me staying power and the ability to fight through CAP into his bomber streams at which point the inferiority of my fighters won't matter much.