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Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. End of Turn. Builds.

France.
10/9/24, 2:20 PM - [ALLIED] France (8 BPs) - MIL(2) x 2, AA Div(4). USA.
10/9/24, 2:24 PM - [ALLIED] USA (11 BPs) - CVP(1), PIL(2), CP(1), CVL 2nd(2), BB 1st(2), BB 2nd(3). USSR.
10/9/24, 2:26 PM - [ALLIED] USSR (8 BPs) - Mech(5), Inf(3).

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. End of Turn. Factory Destruction.

10/9/24, 2:29 PM - [ALLIED] Factory Destruction.
10/9/24, 2:29 PM - [ALLIED] Based on previous instructions that axis will destroy capture blue factories when possible.

Germany.
10/9/24, 2:30 PM - [ALLIED] Germany destroys blue factory in Lodz. Japan.
10/9/24, 2:32 PM - [ALLIED] Japan destroys blue factory at Nanking, China.

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Annual Additions. Axis Scrap.

Germany. 10/9/24, 2:35 PM - [ALLIED] Replace Gneisenau, No?
10/9/24, 2:35 PM - [AXIS] No
10/9/24, 2:36 PM - [ALLIED] No on replacing BB Gneisenau then.
10/9/24, 2:37 PM - [AXIS] Correct. This can be done during production if so choose
10/9/24, 2:37 PM - [ALLIED] Copy. Italy.
10/9/24, 2:38 PM - [ALLIED] Italy. Annual addition scrap. None.

Japan.
10/9/24, 2:39 PM - [ALLIED] Japan. Scrap Ki-21-I (Sally) L3 bomber.

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Axis Reinforcements.

Germany.
None. Remove air - none.

Italy.
None. Remove air - none.

Japan.
10/9/24, 2:41 PM - [ALLIED] Reinforcements. Japan. (Ki-30 -> Sasebo, 2nd inf army -> Osaka).

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Allied Reinforcements.

Nationalist.
10/9/24, 2:42 PM - [ALLIED] Nationalist. No reinforcements & no remove air.

CW.
10/9/24, 2:54 PM - [ALLIED] Annual Addition Scraps. CW - Gladiator F2, Fairey L2. 10/9/24, 2:47 PM - [ALLIED] CW. 3 PIL -> Hurricane I F2, Gladiator CVP, P.82 Defiant NF2.
10/9/24, 2:50 PM - [ALLIED] Gladiator CVP -> CVL Hermes (Liverpool). NF2 -> Coventry. Hurricane I F2 -> Southampton. No land or naval reinforcements.
10/9/24, 2:50 PM - [ALLIED] Remove air - none.

France.
10/9/24, 2:55 PM - [ALLIED] Annual Addition Scraps. France - D510 F2. 10/9/24, 2:53 PM - [ALLIED] France. 1 PIL -> Potez 631 F/B -> Paris. MIL -> Marseilles, Dakar.
10/9/24, 2:53 PM - [ALLIED] Remove Air. SBC-3 CVP (Marseilles).

USA.
10/9/24, 2:55 PM - [ALLIED] USA - CVP TBD x 2. US working hard to modernize their navy!
10/9/24, 2:56 PM - [ALLIED] Isolationist are screaming bloody murder but FDR working through Adm King is moving forward anyways. 10/9/24, 2:57 PM - [ALLIED] USA (reinforcement) CV Saratoga -> San Diego (no CAG available).
10/9/24, 2:57 PM - [ALLIED] Remove air - none.

USSR.
10/9/24, 2:58 PM - [ALLIED] No annual addition scraps for the USSR.
10/9/24, 2:58 PM - [ALLIED] Submarine 4517 has been placed in the Construction Pool.
10/9/24, 2:59 PM - [ALLIED] CCP. MIL -> Sian. 8th Rte inf army -> Chengchow.
10/9/24, 3:00 PM - [ALLIED] USSR. Gar x 2 -> Minsk. Remove air. I-153 F2 (Vladivostok).

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Resource Lending.

10/9/24, 3:01 PM - [ALLIED] Resource Lending. No changes either side.
10/9/24, 3:02 PM - [ALLIED] Discretionary Lending (unchanged).
(1/2) Germany 1 RP -> Italy.
(2/2) CW 3 BPs, 1 Oil -> France.

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Initiative.

10/9/24, 3:03 PM - [ALLIED] Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Initiative. Axis + 1, Allies win tie.
10/9/24, 3:06 PM - [ALLIED] Axis = 7 + 1 = 8. Allies = 4. Axis win the initiative and (as per instructions) elect to move first.


10/9/24, 3:07 PM - [ALLIED] Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Axis #1. Weather. DRM=+2.
10/9/24, 3:09 PM - [ALLIED] Weather D10 = 8 + 2 = 10 -> brutal winter storm hits Europe.
10/9/24, 3:10 PM - [ALLIED] Got a lot of updating to do in our AAR. Will tackle that and hopefully get it update soon.
10/9/24, 3:10 PM - [ALLIED] Will email turn.
10/9/24, 3:12 PM - [ALLIED] Just emailed.

All Axis powers take Combined Moves

No Port Strikes or Naval Air

JP
2 TRS to China Sea picking up AA & INF

GER
2 SUB to BOB

IT
2 SUB to Cape St Vincent
1 SUB to Cape Verde Basin

Axis will search in all

Only contact was in CVB where both sides rolled 2
No SP for either
SUB saved Abort roll

Both Stayed

No find on the second round

No Strategic Bombing or Groundstrikes

RAIL Moves

GER none
IT MIL Milan to Poznan
JP GAR Harbin to Kaifeng

Land Moves

JP Repositions 2 HQs
GER Shuffles units on the Belgium frontier
IT Moves MOT from Cagliari to Resource Hex in Sardinia, Rome MIL moves to Port

Rebases

JP repositions AC in China brining NAV2 & LND2 from Japan
IT Moves LND3 South a little & NAV2 returns to Med
GER shuffles AC in the West to better position FTRs & Bombers against Allied aggression, NAV3 also moves to Genoa in Med

No Reorgs

Over to the Allies.

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Allied #4.

10/11/24, 12:35 PM - [ALLIED] Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Allied #3.
DOW (Major Powers) - none.
DOW (Minor Powers) - none.
10/11/24, 12:35 PM - [ALLIED] Special Actions - none.
10/11/24, 12:37 PM - [ALLIED] Nazi-Soviet Pact.
Neither can break. Germany +16, USSR +18.
10/11/24, 12:40 PM - [ALLIED] Actions. USSR (neutral) - combine, China - land, CW - naval, France - naval, USA (neutral) - combine.
10/11/24, 12:57 PM - [ALLIED] Port Attack - none.
10/11/24, 12:57 PM - [ALLIED] Naval Air - none.
10/11/24, 1:18 PM - [ALLIED] Naval Moves.
USSR - none.
USA - (1/1) 5-2 Sub Gp. San Diego -> Mendocino[0]
CW, French - (will be) summarized in AAR.
10/11/24, 2:45 PM - [ALLIED] German U-boat Intercept Decision.
Bay of Biscay.
CVL Hermes. Liverpool -> BOB.
Intercept (1 required)?
10/11/24, 2:48 PM - [AXIS] no thanks
10/11/24, 2:48 PM - [ALLIED] Copy. CVL Hermes continues to CSV[0]. 10/11/24, 3:02 PM - [ALLIED] Italian Sub Gp Intercept Decision.

Cape St. Vincent.
RN BB Barham. GIB -> CSV.
Intercept (1 required)?
10/11/24, 3:03 PM - [AXIS] NO thanks
10/11/24, 3:03 PM - [ALLIED] Copy. RN BB continues North Atlantic[0]. 10/11/24, 3:08 PM - [ALLIED] Based on your last decision, Italy elects NOT to attempt intercept vs RN BB Barham moving from GIB to Cape St. Vincent.
Note. I can back this out if incorrect assumption.
10/11/24, 3:10 PM - [AXIS] correct
10/11/24, 3:11 PM - [ALLIED] RN BB Barham continues to North Atlantic and then to Faeroes Gap[0].
10/11/24, 3:12 PM - [ALLIED] Almost finished with my naval moves, but Finn (my Whippet) is bugging me to go outside.
10/11/24, 3:38 PM - [ALLIED] Just to confirm. What about the RN CA Belfast. GIB -> Cape St. Vincent. Intercept (1 required)?
10/11/24, 3:39 PM - [AXIS] no thanks, individual, unloaded BB & CA will probably almost never get intercepted, at anytime
10/11/24, 3:39 PM - [ALLIED] Roger.
10/11/24, 3:42 PM - [ALLIED] Naval Moves finished. Will document later in AAR. But first, a couple of naval searches.
[Will document naval moves throughout this impulse's AAR]

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Allied #4.

(1) I wanted to give interested followers some insight into allied convoy line updates, convoy escorts and patrols.
(2) I know that this is breaking OPSEC (again), but really, what's the chance the enemy (i.e., my opponent) is listening anyway.

French Production.
(3) The first thing I looked at was French production including oil.
(4) The French were short on oil last turn and unable to oil their battleships (4 or 5 if I remember correctly).
(5) This turn, the French should have plenty of oil for all their oiling needs and an extra one to up their production by 1 (from 9 to 10), giving them 8 + 3 TR BPs = 11 BPs.
(6) Note that there is one idle French RP (New Caledonia) that could be used instead IF the Western Allies have the spare CPs and in position to get that RP to a French Factory.
(7) They don't have CPs in position, and even if they did, I wouldn't at this point dip into the allied reserve to set that chain.
(8) Well, that's the plan for France that is, barring axis interference. CW Production.
(9) With the new year and the CW production multiplier moving from 0.5 to 0.75, current CW convoy lines fall short of max BP output by 1.
(10) The CW does have an idle RP in Malaya; but like the French New Caledonia (idle) RP, I don't have the CPs in place and even if I did I wouldn't would to have to dip in my CP reserves that far to get it to a UK factory.
(11) So, the CW sets up a CP chain to get the Maturin, Ven Oil #2 to Glasgow.
(12) This required them to move 2 reserve NED CPs from Paramaribo to the East Coast[0], North Atlantic[0] and 1 reserve CW CP from Liverpool to Faeroes Gap[0].
(13) Note that since this oil was being saved in Canada that a CW CP in the Caribbean was already in place for the first leg of the journey from VEN to the UK.
(14) Getting this Ven Oil to Glasgow givens the UK 17 BPs (max) - 3 TS = 14 BPs.
Pre. Post.

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Allied #4. BOA & Med Threat & Risk.

(1) RN and French convoy escorts and patrols needs & priorities necessarily compete with other allied naval, land and air needs and priorities.
(2) This includes both the physical (i.e., ships & planes) and the abstract (naval, air & land actions).
(3) Both the RN and French were able to take a naval in support of convoy escorts and patrol needs this impulse ONLY because reduce land needs due to the winter weather.
(4) Also, there were other naval priorities in the North Sea, West Med, Italian Coast , East Med and Pacific that tipped the scale in favor of a full naval for both powers this impulse.

Threat.
(5) The Euro-axis sub force was committed last (axis) impulse, which both limits and makes which sea areas under risk obvious.
(6) However; there's a sizeable KM surface raider threat still in port which can't (or shouldn't) be ignored.
(7) And, we can't forget about the Italian RM threat which threatens the entire Med. Sortie Chance.
(8) To help me assess the surface raider risk, I'm defining a new parameter that I'm calling sortie chance.
(9) Sortie chance is NOT an estimate that surface raiders will sortie but is an estimate of the chance that surface raiders can reach a given sea area given that they decide to sortie.
(10) For example, the KM CA Graf Spee and/or Deutschland in Kiel (both 5 movers) in Kiel have the range to reach as far as Cape Verde Basin, Mouths of Amazon, Caribbean East Coast.
(11) However; to reach these sea areas they would have to avoid RN/FR intercept through multiple sea areas.
(12) Also, in the case of rain or snow they would have to have the movement to reach those sea areas in the 1-box or higher and in the case of storm or blizzard, the 2-box or higher to have a chance of finding the CPs. Risk Assessment.
(13) BOA & Med risk assessments were made for sub, surface raiders and both combine.
(14) They were then sorted from highest to lowest based on the combine threat.
(15) Then convoy escorts and patrols were sent out based on the risk assessment.
(16) Note that threats already at sea are already weighted more (double in fact) than threats still in port.
(17) Also, even thought in the case of Cape Verde Basin currently contains only one Italian Sub Gp that's flipped, it's still a risk/threat given that a surface raider successfully reaching that sea area could search.
(18) It should be also noted that the RN & French Admiralty had other and higher priority naval objectives which got their needs in ships and planes met first before convoy escorts and patrols did.

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Allied #4. Naval Search.

Cape Verde Basin.
10/11/24, 3:43 PM - [ALLIED] Naval Search. Cape Verde Basin. RN/French - no search. Italian flipped Sub Gp - no chance to search. No combat. Cape St. Vincent.
10/11/24, 3:45 PM - [ALLIED] Cape St. Vincent. Allies do NOT search. Italy may during non-phasing search phase.
10/11/24, 4:01 PM - [ALLIED] FYI. Allies have no air in position to react to Cape St. Vincent.
10/11/24, 4:01 PM - [ALLIED] Non-Phasing. Naval Search(es). Search Bay Cape St. Vincent?
10/11/24, 4:01 PM - [AXIS] no thanks. Bay of Biscay.
10/11/24, 3:45 PM - [ALLIED] Bay of Biscay. Allies do NOT search. Germany may during non-phasing search phase.
10/11/24, 4:01 PM - [ALLIED] Non-Phasing. Naval Search(es). Search Bay of Biscay ?
10/11/24, 4:01 PM - [AXIS] no thanks

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Allied #4. Naval Search.

Italian Coast.
10/11/24, 3:47 PM - [ALLIED] Italian Coast. RN flips 2-4-8 Sub Gp[3] to search.
10/11/24, 3:48 PM - [ALLIED] [Axis Air Reaction?] May react [German NAV] up to 2-box.
10/11/24, 3:49 PM - [ALLIED] Gabbiano up to 2-box, SM-79 up to 2-box, Re 100 F2 up to 1-box.
10/11/24, 3:49 PM - [ALLIED] To support your decision let me show you the RN naval move in the West Med.
10/11/24, 3:49 PM - [ALLIED] <Media omitted>
10/11/24, 3:50 PM - [ALLIED] Axis air reactions, Italian Coast?
10/11/24, 3:51 PM - [AXIS] no thanks
10/11/24, 3:52 PM - [ALLIED] Copy.
10/11/24, 3:52 PM - [ALLIED] Allies commit their sub Gps.
10/11/24, 3:55 PM - [ALLIED] The searches in Italian Coast were unsuccessful. No naval combat occurs. Axis roll was 3. Allied roll was 9. Baltic Sea.
10/11/24, 3:58 PM - [ALLIED] Naval Search. Baltic. FR Sub Gp 4-4-7[0] searches. With storms, all air grounded (i.e., no reaction possible). French commit their subs. Allies have a 10% chance of finding but got to take it!
10/11/24, 4:00 PM - [ALLIED] The searches in Baltic Sea were unsuccessful. No naval combat occurs. Axis roll was 1. Allied roll was 10.
10/11/24, 4:03 PM - [ALLIED] I needed the axis search rolls off the Italian Coast and Baltic!

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Allied #4.

10/13/24, 10:23 AM - [ALLIED] Strategic Bombing - none.
10/13/24, 10:24 AM - [ALLIED] Ground Strike - none.
10/13/24, 10:26 AM - [ALLIED] Rail. USSR. 3rd Sib corps. Kazan, USSR -> Vilna, Poland.
10/13/24, 10:27 AM - [ALLIED] Land Move. China, CCP, will be summarized in AAR.
10/13/24, 10:38 AM - [ALLIED] Land Combat - none.
10/13/24, 10:58 AM - [ALLIED] Air Rebase. CW 1/3. Wellesley L2. Hartwick, UK -> Ajaccio, Corsica.
(2/3) Hurricane F2. Southampton -> Dover, UK.
(3/3) Harrow ATR. Portsmouth, UK -> Belfast, NIR.
10/13/24, 11:06 AM - [ALLIED] Reorg - none.

China.
Northern.
(1) Only CCP (USSR) armies moves.
(2) Lanchow Wld -> W1-Yenan, Mao -> W1-Chenchow, 5-3 army -> under Garr army (NW1-Mao). Southern.
(3) Nationalist 14th inf army. Changsha -> Hengyang.

Turn 3. Jan/Feb 1940. Allied #4. End of Impulse.

Azerbaijan.
(1) 1st Soviet Eng div -> W1-Baku. Eastern Europe.
(2) Sib corps railed to Vilna, Poland.
(3) No land movement.