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Turn 78
I blow a proficiency check part way through the turn. Not the worst but hardly the best event. Ben is really firing on all cylinders this turn. Out on the West Coast I manage some minor advances toward Los Angeles but Ben is fighting back hard. The one thing I am not so clear on here is that, while Ben is most definitely reinforcing the area it is often with Mexican forces and some other second line troops. The stuff my Japanese may be able to overcome. He may feel he does not need to stop me cold just exhaust me. He may well be right about that though at this point I am sending fresh Divisions down from San Francisco every turn. I won’t be able to really keep this up forever and the navy and armour are pooped already but I am hoping I have a little more stamina than he expects. [Edit: I miss a lot of powerful forces transferred here this turn somehow and thus my analysis is out the window]

We have some swirling battles in Mexico but so far I think I am getting the best of these. Ben could have more reinforcements I am unaware of.

I begin my Caribbean Island Conquest this turn with two Finnish Divisions. There are new invasion rules in TOAW IV which require the assault on even empty beaches and I actually only manage to get ashore this turn as opposed to also getting to attack. This might take longer than I anticipated.

Ben withdrew a bunch of forces from Albuquerque but there are still a fair number of forces here. Not sure how this is supposed to play out. He was already overmatched but cleaning this up is certainly delaying me and I don’t do great this turn. It is probably for the best for me that Ben withdrew a bunch of units here otherwise he might have pulled something of a reverse.

The Northwest is going to get very interesting very fast. Ben is pouring reinforcements into the area and throwing up stop gap defences as I race headlong after him. My forces are very worn out however. On that note my forces are recovering faster then I expected supply wise as there is a +5 supply boost for the Axis that just kicked in. Still once all these reinforcements of Ben’s arrive, I could be in trouble. It is hard to say what will happen here.

Ben’s offencive in Missouri continues but it is clear that it has been stripped down pretty hard and is more a diversion than anything else. The problem is that works for him here, at least for a while, as my units in the area need time to recover enough to hold some kind of a line.

Illinois is quiet. I’m stripping everything I dare from this front and sending it to the Carolina’s.

The Carolina’s are a mess. I’ve been split in two and am desperately trying to find the forces I need to start up a counterattack from the south. I have units with the raw power but not enough infantry to hold the flanks. In the north Ben has been cutting off the line and this turn I leave some units in Hedgehogs to slow him up while pulling some units off the line. I see a way to maybe delay what is going on here by cutting some Allied units from supply for a turn and other units are just trying to make it back to my supply point at Norfolk.

Ben really tore into the East Coast where I was trying to pause for resupply. I am forced to counterattack to stabilize the front and am further from Albany this turn but because of the faster supply I was able to find some Panzers for a counter attack that cut off and destroyed a Commonwealth Infantry Division.

All in all a messy situation.

Turn 78:
A hell of a lot going on. The first serious thing is the ongoing Japanese push on Los Angeles, which continues to progress although nothing is exactly fatal yet. I roll my reinforcements off the rail and into the counterattack, but this force still feels insufficient. I put an end to the offensive in Minnesota, which allows me to bring two more Canadian divisions across from here, with another to follow next turn. I try to find more, but all I can get is some Mexican scraps and a burnt out armoured division.

Jeremy continued to push through the central Wyoming valley where I counterattacked last turn, but his attack here feels weak as most of his units are at the end of their tether and in any case his force is now widely dispersed. I think I can fight him here for a time but if he's able to set up and resupply then I'll be beaten again unless I can keep funnelling reinforcements in here. I have a number of new units forming or reconstituted in the northeast but with their low supply and the extreme distance these can't rail into this front in one turn, so instead I pull out four rested divisions from the Hartford front which will be relieved by these new divisions. There's actually a huge number of good pieces here and I should be able to pull out several more plus plenty of artillery next turn, provided this front stays quiet.

The German line in Virginia largely bolted back, trying to trap my troops coming thinly into their rear, but this is in vain and will only accelerate the demise of this force as they sacrifice their fortified status and stockpiled supplies; I should be able to chop them up and destroy them piecemeal. The Axis are more successful in the south, where the line is all but extended to the sea, leaving only a single tempting coastal hex open. I RBC into it and there's empty space behind, but this is a dangerous trap. Instead, I reorganise and concentrate my forces at a couple of weak spots in the Axis line, hoping to compromise it along a greater length.

Some progress- but I only get two rounds and it ends up feeling like a bit of a dud turn, which I can't really afford, with units in a number of places exposed forward where I can expect them to suffer nasty counterattacks. The main achievement of the turn was probably shoving back the Japanese, though this fight certainly isn't over. I did also firmly close the trap in Virginia, destroying a division or so and leaving 4-5 more hopelessly cut off. Next turn, my main force here will assault Norfolk, which is as untenable for Jeremy as it was for me. I forgot entirely about my plan to blow the bridge at Memphis until after the turn was over, though this would hardly be decisive as most of the affected front is cut off anyway.

The one trick up my sleeve - I do still have five divisions and a brigade closing on Mexico City. There are a few Mexican divisions backed up in hexes around the city, so if I get close to it I release those, and then all I need is to hold the city one turn and I get a huge stack more. Various operations have drawn the Axis garrison off, such that I might just be able to interpose myself between them and the city. I also have a fairly huge Mexican bomber force waiting to go. Hold the city and my victory level goes up 100 points- enough to guarantee victory and maybe even "significant" victory. I'm not betting on it yet, though. Overall I keep feeding Jeremy odd divisions and this keeps my force from seriously recovering despite the massive replacement rate, so the Axis generally have as many or more units in the field than I do.

The painstakingly assembled Army of Central America dodges past Italian garrison troops on its daring march to Mexico City

Turn 79
Not the worst but I sure don’t like the way the turn was feeling. Basically, I think I am about to pretty much run out of steam just before I really accomplish anything.

Out on the West Coast Ben turns out to have much more significant reinforcements than I had believed last turn. Armored Divisions and Canadians counterattack. We are now in a back-and-forth tussle and while I am almost on top of important locations I am not quite there and not at all sure I can long sustain a tussle.

The Caribbean Adventure is going well enough – not that there was ever anything Ben could actually do about the situation on these islands. He is not even allowed to move the units so it is all really just about when, and if, the Axis player occupies the islands.

Mexico continues to appear to go well with Allied forces being mostly caught, surrounded and destroyed.

Albuquerque is kind of the same thing. Allied units are being consumed but it is taking time to do so.

The drive on Salt Lake City and the rail line to Los Angeles continues but it is very clear my forces have really been pushed to their limits. I’m still trying to get forward and in places that has worked this turn but I am not so sure how long I can continue this before Ben starts to really put the kibosh on all of this. I am most definitely vulnerable to a real Allied counter attack and am unclear if I can manage to resupply for another push. This is especially true because Ben’s replacement rate is set to enter the stratosphere next turn.

Missouri and Illinois are increasingly quite though I think I might see a concentration of Allies on the far flank near Chamberlain South Dakota. Ben might be prepping for a flank attack or it could be his own flank defence. I make sure to withdraw forces from other areas this turn while I await developments here. I don’t have enough rail to move everyone in any case.
[Edit: It’s just his flank defence – which is very solid hence when I see part of it I think it might be a build up. Mine in the area is nowhere near as good and I keep eying it as one of the last places I could go to get just a few more units as reinforcements.]

The Carolina’s are, of course, a disaster, but less of a disaster this turn as I manage to encircle and destroy two Allied Divisions that push to far south and am able to at least make a nuisance of myself in the northern part of this front. Meanwhile more reinforcements are arriving and hopefully I can arrange a counter attack to kick off shortly.

On the East Coast I am back to pushing, as just enough Panzer Divisions are now back on line to kick off the offencive again. Though I am now just trying to retake ground Ben mostly took back off me here.

Turn 79:
Not bad. Four Mexican divisions continue their lunge and end the turn two hexes from Mexico City- which is held by one brigade of Italians. I'm now so far forward that I'm back up to 2 or 3 supply thanks to the trace from western Mexico and so no longer overextended; this gives me the confidence to activate the rest of my Central American forces (four divisions in various states of unreadiness). Ideally, I would also have some force putting pressure on from the west, but I only have a couple of crap units out here and with the ongoing problems elsewhere it's difficult to justify pouring troops into this area.

The crisis in southern California has passed, as while the Japanese continue to attack, they're no longer surging forward and I feel like their dire supply situation will allow me to outfight them here with the forces already at hand (though I am continuing to add Canadian troops here that are on quiet fronts). Wyoming/Utah is a different matter, however, as Jeremy continues to push forward in all directions, stretching even my rapidly growing forces here. To the north, one panzer division blasts through a light screen I had in place guarding the Montana railway. Unfortunately for Jeremy, I do have a fresh armoured division right on the rail here and I'll blast him; if I can destroy this division then this area is OK fow now. In western Wyoming, where I've been fighting an active defence for two turns, I'm being overwhelmed, and here I'll pull back to allow me to focus on threats north and south this turn. The new position here is just a couple of hexes back, in the southwest corner of Wyoming, but feels very secure with flanks anchored on near-impassable terrain. To the south, I'm hitting Jeremy's vulnerable flanks and here he can have no supply to speak of as he is about twenty hexes from his railhead.

As predicted, I suffered some nasty counterattacks in the Carolinas, but it's possible that Jeremy was overconfident here. I find that a series of RBCs allows my remaining good divisions to put two full panzer divisions in a trap, which I can then immediately begin to collapse with my armour from the north. Unfortunately I'm unable to start work on crushing Norfolk as my key units are all in reorganisation

Jeremy has resumed operations in New England, however I haven't had time to strip this front of its excellent forces so I'm in a good condition to resume the endless back-and-forth which we had over Hartford, and it's doubtful if there's even time left in the scenario for him to reach Albany at this pace. As I counterattack here I notice that increasingly these panzer divisions are shells, coming in to action with fewer than half of their tanks. One retreats after two rounds of pummelling and I count twelve left on the assigned strength. I also destroy two panzer divisions outright this turn, one in Montana and one (plus a heavy tank brigade) in South Carolina. Unfortunately this does leave one panzer division in my rear, which although it's a wreck does create options for Jeremy. There's another panzer division coming up by rail with a stack of HQs so there could be another nasty counterattack in the cards next turn, though I don't necessarily mind as this is Jeremy stripping his Illinois front in order to stay in the fight here in the Carolinas, which has in turn given me the comfort to strip this front myself.

A better turn all around. The Japanese are largely burnt out and I hope to shortly start diverting troops from here to Arizona to block the sizeable German force coming across from Albuquerque. In the northwest, I've blunted the subsidiary attacks (besides the division I destroyed two others, already exhausted, are out of supply) and should be able to continue to defend Salt Lake City for the remainder of the scenario. The offensive in New England feels like it's largely exhausted Axis strength in this area already. Jeremy is clearly preparing for this to go down to the wire on points; four divisions show up in the Caribbean this turn and occupy Hispaniola, and I expect to lose Cuba, Jamaica and Belize in the same way shortly- that's 15 VPs altogether which will shift the victory level to just +272, well within range of a draw if Jeremy can make other gains on the continent. However I am starting to do some real damage to the Axis and this is bringing up the Axis loss penalty. From next turn, my replacement rate will be about 187%, a really ludicrous figure which should start to bring my own loss penalty down.

Turn 80
Pretty good turn but not happy with overall developments. The turn is pretty good because I manage to cut off and destroy enough Allied units that, despite some losses of my own the loss rating shifts slightly in my favour. However, not only is the Allied replacement rate basically going into the stratosphere this turn but also in many key areas it really feels as if my attacks may have reached their peak. My chances of even making a draw are starting to get pretty long.

On the West Coast my Japanese have to do without the fleet this week as it has withdrawn back to San Francisco to resupply. I’ve not been getting the kind of punch I feel I need out of it with such low supply and am hoping that it will give me some much more dramatic results when its much closer to full supply [Edit: It won’t]. I only need to advance a few hexes but so far that has not been really possible. My own forces are rapidly running out of steam here even with a constant stream of a handful of fully resupplied Divisions. That said Allied reinforcements here are somewhat strained as well and Allied forces are looking worn down as well though Ben has 5 Armored Divisions in reserve here. I don’t think they are particularly big (likely older early Sherman based Armored Divisions, now very short on tanks) but on this front they probably don’t need to be huge.

My occupation of the Caribbean is almost done. Despite some initial set backs it turns out that the operation is mostly unopposed. The Caribbean defense forces appear to have simply faded away, for the most part, over the course of the scenario.

Mexico has also been going reasonably well with my forces pretty consistently managing to catch and destroy Allied units but Ben has decided to try and relieve the effort as I can see more units coming up from Central America.

The Southwest front is posing conundrums to me. I pretty much finish off all the Allied delaying forces this turn. So now what? Considering how little time there is left in the scenario maybe I should just keep pushing with my units in the red? Or I could try and resupply. It would take about three turns but my units would be able to pose much more of a threat. Do I go south and grab the 3 VP cities or just try and bypass them and head for Los Angeles or San Diego? I’ll probably resupply as a lot of the units here are wonderfully powerful when topped up and could drive over tertiary defenders but the clock is really ticking so I am not 100% that is the correct answer.
[Edit: I don't seem to be considering it here anymore, but with my forces running out of steam most of these Panzergrenadier Divisions might have been excellent reinforcements for the fighting in the NorthWest]


When I think of my forces just running out of steam I am really mostly thinking of my Northwest offencive. Here my attack has become spread out and overstretched. I can’t relieve enough of them to really resupply and I can’t get enough power concentrated to punch through. Other parts of the front (the Carolina’s) need whatever reinforcements I can cull from the line so I feel pretty stuck here.

Missouri and Illinois remain quite and I am continuing to withdraw forces from these fronts to send to the Carolina’s. This turn a massive SS Panzer Division was pulled out.

In the Carolina’s Ben managed a nasty attack that wiped out a Panzer Brigade and left a Panzer Division Anemic. I did manage to relieve the situation on my turn but we continue to struggle in the southern part of the line while Ben just keeps mopping my remnant forces up in the north. I still have a rear guard at Norfolk on the Supply point. Not sure that it is strong enough to hold. I can reinforce the southern part of this front with about 1 Infantry Division and One Panzer Division a turn for at least a few more turns and this is supposed to give me enough to launch a counter attack from the south. Not sure it will be enough, however.

The North East is where things are the brightest this turn. With many Panzers now fit to fight (though I have both some burnt out ones and some that are about to come back online) I launch a rip roaring offencive that I think finally crosses the main geographic barrier to Albany and really pushes up to the Hudson River. It is in fact here where I probably got enough kills to swing the Loss Rate my way as I catch a stack trapped by the Hudson and I slaughter most of it. Here I think I want to see if I can shift my fresh Panzers toward Albany and see if I can take the city. That said looking at my Panzer Divisions and the situation is much grimmer then the sheer number of Panzer Divisions would imply. Losses massively outstrip replacements and even a fully rested Panzer Division is going into combat with maybe 40% of its panzer compliment and that will only get worse.

Loss Rate: Axis: 465 / Allies: 403 / Spread: -62

Jeremy Mac Donald wrote: Tue May 16, 2023 10:13 pm Ben has 5 Armored Divisions in reserve here. I don’t think they are particularly big (likely older early Sherman based Armored Divisions, now very short on tanks)

Yes these units at this point are more like armoured cavalry: lots of armoured cars and Stuarts but only a fraction of their Shermans and not much other heavy equipment or infantry.

Turn 80 part 1:
Well, I'm able to set up my attack on Mexico City. Unfortunately, the shortage of airfields in western Mexico limits the amount of bomber support I'm able to bring in, but I still have a shot, for one turn and one turn only I think. My other offensive action in the Carolinas is reduced to local attacks, including the assault on Norfolk, as my troops are too exhausted for more and I even begin withdrawing regulars from here this turn.

In Arizona, the German threat is becoming increasingly urgent, as I see panzergrenadier troops moving down the unprotected road west of Las Cruces. The best I can offer here immediately is one cavalry regiment, which won't do much against a German mechanised division, so I need to put troops here NOW. I'm able to add a division and a half from the northwest, while the 3 battered National Guard divisions I have locally screen the more northerly passes- it should be enough just to slow Jeremy down here. Unfortunately I can't spare troops from southern California as my forecast of an end to the Japanese offensive was premature and my forces here are looking increasingly worn.

New England is disastrous compared to last turn, with the Axis advancing across a broad front and pushing my in places against the Hudson; I had thought I had enough engineers in place on the river to prevent any units being lost this way but it's evident that I didn't. I'm actually evicted from Albany albeit the Axis didn't actually enter the hex, and I'm obliged to drop a division of Pershing tanks plus a fresh US infantry division into the hex to put up a bit of a defence next turn. I find myself adding my scant available reserves- two divisions by rail plus one formed locally- to this front, leaving nothing for the north mountains front

Nevertheless, I'm sticking to my offensive posture there; with Jeremy's forces widely dispersed and in places badly positioned I'm attacking across the front now that I am at my maximum strength. Where last turn I killed a lead panzer division in Montana, this turn I'm following up, smashing the supporting Hungarians.

The slog in the northeast continues

Turn 80 part 2

Another big turn. I kill the panzer division that had escaped me last turn in the Carolinas, while closing in with surprising ease on Norfolk, which I hope to take next turn (Jeremy may evacuate as it's totally indefensible). I also give the Axis a fairly thorough going over on the mountain front, destroying a couple of isolated brigades and creating credible threats on both flanks. The highlight though is that my troops DO enter Mexico City. Jeremy has a couple of good Italian divisions coming up so this is hardly definitive, but I also have several divisions of my own reinforcements en-route as well, and could keep this up a couple of turns potentially- plus I believe I've cleared the arrival hex for at least one new division outside the city.

However I'm still seriously concerned about both Los Angeles and New York, as Jeremy's offensives here seem to go on regardless of how ruined his units are. In the latter, I shove back but am largely withdrawing over the Hudson to make the most of the challenges of the river crossing.

This is the final turn of scheduled reinforcements so again time to check which way my strength is moving:
Squads:
Irregular: 1.9 / 1.7
Mounted Rifle: 7.7 / 7.5
Motorcycle: 1.8 / 1.8
Light Rifle: 28.1 / 27.1
Light Rifle AT-: 11.7 / 11.3
Rifle: 20.9 / 19.8
Rifle AT-: 16.7 / 16.0
Heavy Rifle: 5.3 / 5.3
Engineer: 4.4 / 4.4
Total Combat Squads: 98.5k / 94.9k
That's pretty definitive- and pretty serious. A portion of this fall is down to reserve divisions, of which I have only 65 US, 12 Canadian and 8 Central American left in static deployments, for about 26k squads. However the majority of these losses are down to the fact that I have simply been fighting incredibly hard across the map for the last six turns, and in doing so have lost an incredible number of divisions outright, more than counterbalancing the five or six divisions which I was able to add to my OOB in the Carolinas campaign. Even though my replacement rate is now astronomical, with no more new units being formed I have to expect that my strength will continue to deteriorate from its peak c. turn 74. I need just ten turns more good fighting from these battered troops to hold the win.

An indication of the poor condition of Allied units in active fronts: 22nd Armored Division, stationed 50km north of Los Angeles, missing most of its heavier vehicles.

As bad as the Allies have it the Axis Armies are undergoing a six alarm fire. 10,000 squads have been erased from the OOB in 6 weeks of fighting. The Armoured Divisions are emptying out as they loose more then 3000 Tanks. Mostly from the critical German Panzertruppen. In many ways the Panzer Divisions remain the core of the Axis power not because they are full of Panzers but because they have a much higher ranking in terms of receiving what replacements are still being supplied to North America.

Turn 81
All sorts of a mess out there. I open the turn with VPs swinging against me far worse then has been the case for a long time but end it with the VPs swinging my way better then they have for quite a while. Two National Guard Infantry appear behind my lines. No doubt a National Guard Infantry Corp mobilized in the area but it was substantially under my control so only a couple of them mobilized on hexes that had been reconverted by guerrilla’s actually appeared. For a moment I really fear that Ben has managed to cut the rail line out to the North East and to Missouri but fortunately I built a secondary line at some point (when Ben was attacking into the flank out here and looked like he might reach the rail line) and the supply line has to take a circuitous route but everyone is still in supply this turn. I manage to kill one of them immediately with a Panzer Division that had been withdrawn (but never had enough rail transport) from the Illinois front. By turns end I have that Panzer back on a rail ready to be transferred to a more active front. The second is surrounded by tertiary rail guard units and I have brought two Infantry Divisions I stripped from the Missouri front down to deal with it. Rather be shifting them to a new battle but one does what one must.

In the Caribbean my assaults are a bit messed up and German Mountain Infantry Division ends up left out at sea. I hope Ben does not see that.

Mexico is a real chaotic mess. I just managed to finish dealing with the incursion at Acayucan (killing off the 1st US Infantry Division) when a swarm of Mexican Irregulars appears out of the mists near Mexico City and storm it. There are even some HQs, various Mexican Armoured Divisions along the road between Mexico City and Oaxca. I desperately counter attack with the 2nd Italian Cavalry Division to retake Mexico City before Ben can get the supply point and whatever reinforcements are backed up in Mexico City and am relieved when I retake Mexico City. I am not out of the woods here yet but that at least keeps Ben on low trace supply and I have cut off many of his units in the area. Still, I reinforce with the Venezuelan Security Division that had been sitting on the Puerto Barrios which kind of shows how desperate I am. That said if I get the lid on this it could be an opportunity. I don’t think Ben left much in Central America and I might be able to capture a bunch of 3 VP cities on the cheap.

The West Coast offensive continues even as my Japanese become ever more worn out. From next turn on if I withdraw a burnt out Japanese Division I will be sending it to the frontline in the north to relieve a slightly better Japanese Division as opposed to even trying to resupply it at San Fransisco. Nonetheless things are looking like… well maybe? Ben surrounded but failed to destroy a couple of Japanese Divisions and I was able to relieve them on my turn. Also I am now up beside Los Angeles and cleared (but failed to take) the supply point north of the city. Starting this turn I am searching the hexs near Los Angeles for a chance to come down with my airborne.

Near Albuquerque I sort of compromise as some of the units head for the rail line to resupply but there was a loose National Guard Division out here and I could not resist the chance to kill it.

The North West Front has really begun to go sour on me. My southern prong has been checked and in fact I am now trying to rationalize the line, basically falling back to make it less likely I get cut off. A few units are being withdrawn from this front as well because the Hungarians in the north that where heading for Billings just fell apart completely and Ben is pushing down from my right rear. On the centre of the line here I manage to kill a Division and half an Armored Division but I am completely stretched out with any drips of forces I have extra having to be stripped out to deal with the collapse of the Hungarians. There is also now developing a fight deep on this flank between the this front and the one in Missouri where Ben and I have gotten caught up in a fight that has escalated over who controls the airbase at Rapid City. I’ve dragged up all my Italian rear guard forces for the coming battle.

Missouri and Illinois are quite but the Carolina’s most certainly are not. Here Ben closed in on Norfolk and knocked one of the Brigades I had here back into the city. I feel that I won’t hold here and this would be a waste of some great units so I withdraw the Panzer Division and one of the two Panzer Grenadier Brigades. The other one retreats to one of the ports further east of Norfolk. If I am lucky I will get a chance to withdraw it next turn. This does mean I will loose the 10 VP city of Norfolk next turn which is really too bad. In the south I cut off and Destroy an Allied Armored Division. I lost the two units Ben cut off (and I relieved) down here last turn. I was really hoping they would retreat when Ben attacked (there was a more powerful unit in the hex) but they were just too weak and evaporated instead. This is frustrating because I desperately need what ever I can manage to cull out of the line in other places but there are just so many VPs here and I have so much power already that I pretty much just keep having to feed units into this front.

Finally in the North East it appears it might be a really good turn. I very solidly take Albany this turn (hence my good showing in the VPs by turns end). I have pushed Ben back moderately from the city. Maybe I can hold it? If so, that would be excellent. Anything that cuts into Ben’s replacements is going to be very welcome. I also managed to get within striking range of New York City this turn.

Turn 81 Part 1:
Various troubles. For a start, Jeremy took Mexico City. As noted this isn't the end as I still have a fair amount of strength here and will be hitting him from several angles, but I think holding it now is an unlikely outcome. Next up, the Japanese blasted their way forward to the hex adjacent to Los Angeles- though fortunately he didn't gobble up the Canadian divisions exposed to the north last turn. I'm making increasingly frantic counterattacks here as if I lose Los Angeles Jeremy gets his draw.

A sigh of relief to the east as the Axis-controlled hexes near Las Cruces turn out to be just that- no units. I now feel a bit silly putting a good armoured division down here but I think I'll need it before the end of the scenario- though it's curious he's chosen to make an operational pause now when the battle is in the balance in California and I can't possibly reinforce here. The Axis are also somewhat on the back foot in the northwest, where last turn's fighting has reduced the Hungarian mobile corps to junk and the rest of Jeremy's force failed to deliver the damaging attacks I was expecting; he's actually pulling back in eastern Utah. I'll press my attacks here.

The other really bad news is that Jeremy blasts past Albany. This looks bad the same as Boston and Minneapolis did in that he doesn't just take the hex but also clears the surrounding area but I don't think this is the end of the story. His units are mostly wrecks and to achieve this he's stacked a whole bunch of artillery right on the line, I'm thinking that if I swing up some of my US units from the south I can hit him from both sides and maybe reverse this and even cause some overstacking losses. The only problem with this plan is that I'm also under a lot of pressure to the south and need to counterattack there, too, however I am able to scramble a few divisions for this task. I'm continuing to make this front my priority for reinforcements, with four decent divisions railed here this turn from quiet fronts across the map.

Jeremy evacuated Norfolk. This is fine- but I had hoped to destroy some panzer units here. As it is, two brigades are still on the coast here and some of my armour left over from the assault chases them down the Outer Banks and destroys them. To the south, Jeremy continues his counterattack, roughing up my remaining units outside Charleston, and I divert several divisions here from those released by the closing down of the Virginia front. Nevertheless I hope to send 4-6 divisions of good troops from here to other fronts next turn.

Turn 81 part 2

Feels like a good turn. I do fight my way back into Mexico City and in the process largely destroy the best Italian division in the theatre (a cavalry division) while doing some damage to the rest. I don't think this is enough however and expect to lose the city again on Jeremy's turn unless I'm extremely lucky. The news from Los Angeles is more promising, as it feels like despite my own waning strength the Japanese force here is collapsing, with Jeremy's carefully built up supplies all but exhausted and the Canadians close to a breakthrough several hexes inland from the city. I'm nervous about the existence of three fresh airborne divisions in California but I think I may have air superiority in the west at this point, which limits their scope to cause havoc.

Perhaps the best news is from Wyoming, where the entire Hungarian mobile corps (about four divisions) is wiped out in a series of small actions, leaving the Axis north flank apparently wide open. In the centre, I hammer the Axis minor units, destroying one division and leaving his line a wreck; here it feels like this part of Jeremy's Offensive Plan: West has come to an end. The worst is the Northeast. Here, I come within a hair's breadth of storming Albany but that's not enough, and this leaves me vulnerable to further attacks on the Axis turn, though nearer New York city the news is better as I maul a number of German divisions, maintaining a bit of depth here whilst ensuring that the key Hudson bridges are blown. With the reinforcements coming up here this turn and next I hope to be able to hold the line the remainder of the scenario, but it'll be bloody.

It may be moot, but there's a question that's been in my mind for the last several turns: Clearly, Jeremy has made a concerted effort to squeeze the west, with the Japanese offensive on the one hand and the push through the Rockies in Wyoming and New Mexico. The question is whether this was an end in itself- to take Los Angeles and complicate the defence of the broader west- or was it intended to pull the Allied OOB west to make way for a renewed offensive aimed at New York? If it was the former, then I really would have expected him to hold the Japanese off longer; it's only in the last couple of turns that transit between east and west has been seriously threatened, by which time I'd already heavily reinforced California. I would also expect that some of the rail lift which is still being used to pour reinforcements into the Carolinas would be reinforcing the faltering drive towards Salt Lake City. As it stands, putting these units here allows Jeremy to stop me reinforcing New York while at the same time giving scope for them to later on be transferred by sea up to Boston to join the offensive themselves.

Either way- Jeremy needs at least two of New York, Los Angeles and Mexico City to get a draw. That's starting to feel like a longshot.

European Axis and Japanese troops just about fit onto a single screenshot- but time is running out for the gap to close.

golden delicious wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 5:54 pmIt may be moot, but there's a question that's been in my mind for the last several turns: Clearly, Jeremy has made a concerted effort to squeeze the west, with the Japanese offensive on the one hand and the push through the Rockies in Wyoming and New Mexico. The question is whether this was an end in itself- to take Los Angeles and complicate the defence of the broader west- or was it intended to pull the Allied OOB west to make way for a renewed offensive aimed at New York? If it was the former, then I really would have expected him to hold the Japanese off longer; it's only in the last couple of turns that transit between east and west has been seriously threatened, by which time I'd already heavily reinforced California. I would also expect that some of the rail lift which is still being used to pour reinforcements into the Carolinas would be reinforcing the faltering drive towards Salt Lake City. As it stands, putting these units here allows Jeremy to stop me reinforcing New York while at the same time giving scope for them to later on be transferred by sea up to Boston to join the offensive themselves.

I would say that this is, in some ways overthinking it. North East is essentially its own thing. Loaded with so many Panzers it is supposed to be able to bludgeon its way forward the, not all that many, hexs to Industrial Cities. Obviously other attacks in other areas of the map are expected to keep you from piling a truly insane amount of equipment here and in fact I always feel a bit short - especially in terms of good Infantry but its not really tied to some kind of schedule out in the West. In large part because if I don't attack and take ground you do and push me back. I'm forced to maintain an aggressive stance here just to keep what I have already taken, never mind push the handful of hexs forward to take something more.

What is taking place in the West is primarily about trying to strain your ability to reinforce everything in the hopes that something will break. My last successful Cauldron Battle in the Northwest actually went off a turn before I expected. My Panzers where mainly stacked up in the rear resupplying when a minor breakout by the Spanish ended up your forces out of position when a counter attack failed to shift one of their divisions. I expected to move up to your flank with the Hungarians and suddenly realized that the way you had pulled it back meant that the majority of your forces where very vulnerable to being surrounded by any break out. I had to move most of my Panzers 40%-50% of their move just to get into the battle but it all seemed like an opportunity I could not pass up.

That meant the Japanese kicked off their attack a few turns early to try and strain your ability to reinforce both the line in front of Salt Lake City and Los Angeles where I hoped I could manage something, preferably on both fronts but either one would have been reasonably good. The one thing I did not want to give you was the leisure of being able to get one under control and then have a chance to get the other under control.

The Attack into the Carolina's is due my I needing to mass forces here just to deal with you smashing the line and a lot of these came by sea and your line in the south is pretty weak at the moment. We are also clearly running out of time. I don't have the rail lift to swap the Panzers down here with hard to find Infantry and move these Panzers to another front and yet I can't afford to really leave this much combat power static. So I instead reinforce here and try and take back the VP hexs.

Turn 82
Ben is on a tear on his turn attacking vigorously on pretty much every active front. I also come away a little unsure what Ben’s immediate plans are. I can see a pretty reasonable chunk of reinforcements head for the East Coast but Ben withdraws a bunch of HQs out of the Carolina’s heading for the West along with a fair number of other forces which means somewhere is about to get some substantial reinforcements or Ben plans to kick off a new offensive. I am unclear what the answer is.

On the West Coast I am driven back. I push back again on my turn but don’t quite get to the high water mark I made last turn.

Manage to deal with the infiltrators behind my lines and also take the last VP city in the Caribbean this turn though I am still chasing around a couple of Cuban Divisions. I land one of the Finnish Divisions in Mexico to help with the fighting there and the Carolina’s gets one of the German Mountain Infantry Divisions.

Down in Mexico things are going fairly well. Ben takes and then loses Mexico City again, and again I have most of his forces cut off. It looks like he is planning to try and throw yet more Central American forces into the fight but I think the whole thing is going solidly my way.

All quite in the southeast as I resupply my forces west of Albuquerque. This group is really the last of any kind of a substantial strike force I have that is not pretty much locked up.

In the North East, east of Salt Lake City, it is pretty clear that my plans have collapsed. Ben is counter attacking hard and of particular importance basically the entire Hungarian Mobile Corp, including both HQs, is wiped out. There is now a substantial threat to the right rear of my forces and I am falling back completely onto the defencive while dragging together any reserves I can manage to gather to defend my flank.

Missouri and Illinois remain very quiet and I look to scrounge up just a few more reserves from these fronts for other, more pressing fronts.

The Carolina’s see Ben finish off all the remaining resistance in the north except for a handful of Regiments and Brigades that seem able to really survive quite a long time even cut off. Ben does not attack toward the south and instead appears to be going over to the defensive even as he withdraws troops to other fronts. I finally begin to really kick off my own offensive into the area which makes ground but nothing particularly spectacular.

Finally up in the East Coast Ben pushes back hard but I am happy when his turn ends and I still have Albany. This is good news but Ben has reinforced the front, my units are once again pretty much burnt out and it does not look like Ben plans to let up on the attacks, well ever, and I am not at all sure I have enough to even hold onto what I have gained never mind devise an attack on New York City.

The effects of Ben’s high replacement rate are definitely being felt at this point as heavy fighting across the front increases my loss rate while Ben’s ends up where it was last turn.

Otherwise, of interest is I am closer to a draw, in terms of VPs, then I have been in quite some time. I now need to find only 19 VPs to do that and I could pick those up in the Southwest US and Central America so long as I don’t lose any in some other location. This here is something I have only really seen once before – we are going into the end game with a kind of scramble for VPs. Every other match I have played has always been basically over by this point. This one would have been as well if the Allied Infantry Replacements had not been so substantially reduced. Ben would be crushing me hard at this point if that had been the case but here I think I might be able to find the VPs to make this a draw. Of course something I don’t know is if Ben has hidden units – he could have a couple of units hidden in the swamps of the south US ready to occupy a few key towns on the last turns of the game. If I manage to capture a 50 VP city that would be a big enough cushion to nullify that tactic but I don’t have a lot of faith that is going to take place.

Albany: 164%

Turn 82:
Looks like game over at Mexico City, as more Italian troops pile on and put pretty much the whole force here out of supply. I'll hit the city again but I'm not expecting much here, and this has done very little overall for the Allied cause (I think, perhaps, one Axis division has been sent here from the forces clearing the Caribbean, plus a few air units)

The Japanese continue to furiously attack outside Los Angeles, but fail to match their high water mark of last turn. There is a surge in the north with a Japanese division breaking out into the desert, but this feels like a desperate move that will cost more than it gains and I have a fair hope of destroying the offending division.

In the northwest, Jeremy has somewhat rationalised his position and I think is blocking the immediate move on his north flank, but to do this he's weakened his centre and an RBC gives me a quick one hex pocket containing 2. Panzergrenadier, which I'll aim to destroy this turn.

My hopes of withdrawing a bunch of troops from the southeast are somewhat dashed as Jeremy has opened a big counteroffensive here with the troops redeployed from Illinois, shoving me back on a broad front, and a number of divisions are sent here from their dispersal points. It's OK to fall back gradually here as I'm some distance from Charlotte, which is the only point of any significant value in this area, so I opt for a passive defence for now with the most battered units moving into second line positions to be replaced by the new ones. As it happens, though, this doesn't affect my withdrawal from this sector much as my rail lift is maxed out (due in large part to the huge number of units which are reconstituting each turn with my replacements so high) and I have a couple of divisions still sat here waiting for the rail lift next turn. I also finish clearing the remains of the German line cut off by the original Carolinas offensive this turn, which releases a number of reserve divisions for other duties.

The northeast remains Jeremy's main offensive sector. He consolidates around Albany but doesn't advance much towards New York City- which he really needs to think about taking if he wants to win the match [this should read, get a draw in the match: an Axis victory is now out of the question]. I'm making counterattacks around the perimeter and this turn this area again receives substantial reinforcements; two wrecked armoured divisions and two good ones, plus two good infantry divisions. The good troops mostly drop at Utica to support the flagging Canadian sector north of Albany.

Nothing spectacular. I shove Jeremy back in a few places and destroy the panzergrenadier division and the Japanese division which I'd earmarked earlier in the turn. My current victory level is 262, which is marginal victory and rather too marginal. If the loss spread goes against me, say, another 12 points then Jeremy would need only 25 on map VPs for the draw, which would be Charlotte, El Paso, Chihuahua, Wilmington, Raleigh and Greensboro. I need to continue the pressure on Jeremy just to keep this position; I can't see anything which can really stack more points up in my favour. I do hope to be able to continue caving in the Axis position in the northwest. Perhaps I could hit the Axis line north of Albany? It would be trivial to collect a force for this as it's so close to the main front, but I'd have to get result in a single turn for the same reason. I don't think there's enough time left in the scenario for me to make the necessary swing down to Boston to cut off the German schwerepunkt, but perhaps it would be enough to just threaten it and allow other troops to seize Albany.

One option actually would be to make a move for Ottawa, which is three hexes from the line. This would also be subtle to set up- I could prepare it for turn 84 easily enough- but would be a good two turns' drive for Jeremy's exhausted panzers. The hex is worth 20 VPs in itself, and it also releases several Canadian units and allows me to threaten other points, such as Montreal and Sault Ste. Marie (which would be "overextended" if I cut the rail here and could then be attacked directly). Yeah- let's go for this. I'll try to put together about six good divisions plus artillery, and bring forward more bombers too. There are good German troops down at Toronto which could come out to play- but there are also three first-class Canadian armoured divisions sat on their hands here which will follow suit. I already have the three divisions at Utica, and I can add the Commonwealth artillery which are on "free" support" and a couple of other units from the area. Everyone can sit close to Utica for now as that's perfectly innocent, then pounce on turn 84.

The Allied offensive phase in the Carolinas comes to an end

Turn 83
No sign at all of some kind of a new offencive from Ben – it looks like the units being transferred are being transferred to pre-existing fronts.

On the West Coast there is a constant back and fourth and while I do reasonably well in that department this turn destroying and Armored Division in an overstack attack in front of Los Angeles but loosing a Division I tried to break through with in the north my forces are now all glowing cherry red while Allied forces can recover. I still have fresh or semi fresh units trickling into the front but I have a difficult time seeing how I am going to make advances and suspect that I’ll be slowly going backward for the foreseeable future. Possibly when I release the forces near Albuquerque, which do nothing but rest up this turn, Ben will have no ability to reinforce this front and I can find a way forward but I am not confident of that.

The battle for Mexico is substantially over this turn. Ben can’t capture the city again and is in full retreat back into Central America with what forces he has remaining. I finish off most of the units he has and begin preparing for my own invasion of Central America.

This is aided because the last resistance in the Caribbean is defeated this turn and two Divisions from this force return to Puerto Barrios to act as a second prong in the invasion of Central America.

On the Northwest Front east of Salt Lake City Ben is clearly on the offencive while I desperately try and hold things together. I have scraped up some more reinforcements for the front including to fresh Infantry Divisions and am transferring around forces so I might be able to hold it together here but that is yet to be seen. If I can manage to start pulling mobile forces off the line maybe I can do something in the area but I kind of doubt it. Also my far southern flank is really open and given that this leads back to Denver I will probably have to find something to guard it.

In the Carolina’s Ben finishes off the few forces still holding their trenches in the north. I make advances in the south but nothing particularly spectacular. I have brought up two more Infantry Divisions here and a lot of artillery. It is not that far to Charlotte so maybe I can manage to capture that city.

The North East is a brutal back and forth but here it is starting to seem likely that I will be more desperately trying to hold onto what I have gotten much more then take something like New York. The Panzer Divisions are all just shadows now. I have two in the rear refitting and they only have around 30 Panthers a piece. I have burnt out ones on the front line with less then a dozen. These units are just not Panzer Divisions anymore – just a grouping of various odds and sods.

Jeremy Mac Donald wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 5:50 amThe Panzer Divisions are all just shadows now. I have two in the rear refitting and they only have around 30 Panthers a piece. I have burnt out ones on the front line with less then a dozen. These units are just not Panzer Divisions anymore – just a grouping of various odds and sods.

I've been thinking about this on and off. Actually late scenario Axis tank production is probably too low, as Pz-IV production ends part way through the scenario whereas historically it was in production right to the end of the war. If we're saying that the Germans are able to stop production of the IV to concentrate on later models then those numbers need to be increased, otherwise production of the IV has to be extended and the tank mix in the reconstituted panzer divisions needs to change.

Turn 83:
Worst this turn again is Los Angeles, as a Canadian division is cut off and hammered and generally the struggle continues here, although Jeremy's exhausted troops can only claw back the territory they lose each turn. I add the fresh armoured division from Arizona back here as the Axis are running out of time to make a push from there; for some reason, his rail repair troops are advancing unsupported, so I sacrifice a regiment of Mexican irregulars to destroy one and batter a second, while in New Mexico I have two regiments clearing roads to make sure that when the Axis do move, it's very slowly. I also take steps to release another good armoured division from Oregon.

The northwest looks good. Here, I'm in a position to squeeze the Axis in Wyoming from north and east, threatening to cut off the good mechanised troops Jeremy has around Jackson Hole. I just added a number of HQs this turn so this looks promising.

Jeremy continues to attack towards Charlotte, but this isn't devastating as he seems to be avoiding my strength. I counterattack his lead division while otherwise consolidating and continuing to remove idle units to other fronts (mainly New York)

That front is good, too. Jeremy presses toward New York City but I have a lot of troops here and can counterattack and defend in depth both. At Albany things are quiet so I make some modest counterattacks whilst building up an impressive ten divisions plus quite a few HQs at Utica for the Ottawa offensive next turn. I can imagine some of these being pulled away if Jeremy makes too rapid a drive toward New York, but I have some very powerful divisions fortified here and the front narrows as he moves southwest so this will be tough going for the Axis.

The attacks in Wyoming go astonishingly well: I break through on the eastern flank and put five divisions and a number of HQs out of supply. Over the state line in Utah, I smash a hole in the Italian line and destroy two divisions and two HQs, and leave the rest of the line here in severe danger. However I have this gnawing sense that having put Jeremy on the back foot here what I really need to do is pull out whatever good divisions can be spared to go make Los Angeles a sure thing. At the moment it feels like I could still lose the city if Jeremy has a bit of luck. We'll see how things look next turn; I could perhaps spend a turn mopping up the Italians and then pull the majority of this flank back to redeploy.

Axis positions in the northwest begin to collapse

golden delicious wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 11:47 am

Jeremy Mac Donald wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 5:50 amThe Panzer Divisions are all just shadows now. I have two in the rear refitting and they only have around 30 Panthers a piece. I have burnt out ones on the front line with less then a dozen. These units are just not Panzer Divisions anymore – just a grouping of various odds and sods.

I've been thinking about this on and off. Actually late scenario Axis tank production is probably too low, as Pz-IV production ends part way through the scenario whereas historically it was in production right to the end of the war. If we're saying that the Germans are able to stop production of the IV to concentrate on later models then those numbers need to be increased, otherwise production of the IV has to be extended and the tank mix in the reconstituted panzer divisions needs to change.

I see the point of it but kind of like the effect of the slowly dying Panzer Corps. I mean this has only truly become critical in the last few turns near the end of the match. German Infantry replacements are simply not anywhere near high enough to truly sustain the size of the army out in North America - the German infantry die's its own death. The Panzer Divisions, in this version do as well though it is a road with peaks and valleys as the new Panzer Divisions arrive with a pretty large stockpile of Panzers in the kitty and there are usually a reasonable chunk of the IV's left over from the swap.

I guess I am less fussed that production figures line up for the Axis then I am for the Allies because the Allies are producing in North America while German potential for production has to cross the Ocean. You and I know this is impossible but in my mind once we decide that it is somehow possible it still makes sense to show that, especially over the long term its not really possible to sustain... even with the Germans apparently working miracles to do stuff like get the Panzer Divisions back over a second time. Here, as is often the case, I am most interested in the look and feel of the scenario. Full powered German Panzer Divisions late into a hard fought game of Fall Grau does not feel right. These sadly falling apart ones that have been overused and fought non-stop really does.

Turn 84
Oh, come on! Early turn ending really messes me up. It somehow feels as if Ben suffers less early turn ending then me though it may be that only the most dramatic versions are noticeable. [Edit: I remain somewhat perplexed by this. Ben complains about early turn ending significantly less then me in the AAR - this despite the fact that the Allies, with a 70% force proficiency rating are far more prone to early turn ending compared to the Axis with a 90% force proficiency rating]

The West Coast sees Ben push back but he does not make enough ground to save the Canadian Division. I advance myself and am making some ground. Killed the rest of that Canadian Division anyway but early turn ending brings it up short with few units dug in.

The advance into Central America begins with Ben blocking my advance from the coastline at Zacapa. Some of my forces in Mexico are just about at the southern border.

In the South East Irregulars show up in small numbers but kill a Rail Road Repair unit. I sent a brigade out to deal with this but the turn has ended before they got the chance so this might mean more lost RRR units.

The real disaster comes in the Northeast where I face something similar to what I pulled off against Ben in this area earlier. Ben cut me off but I should have had not to much trouble getting out except the turn ends before my attacks come up and now my cut off units have been pretty much left out to dry.

I had a nice little attack heading for Charlotte in the Carolina’s that just got shut down and the North East sees Ben and I going back and forth though I thought I might make a bit of ground.

One element I am really not sure about is what Ben is doing in terms of his reserves. I see forces withdrawing from New England and the Carolina’s and stuff seems to be headed west but it is unclear what Ben is doing. My best guess is he plans to attack the flank of the forces in the Northeast. Basically really extend the fighting back toward the east. I have husbanded together some precious reserves if that is the move but it would leave me in a pretty dire situation. My ability to hold a front as long as that is extremely iffy.

Loss Rate: Axis: 508 / Allies: 419 / Spread: -93