RE: Operation Hangover
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2004 4:32 am
Hi there, PzB 
Many of your answers make sense, however I see some points worth a thought
of course I'm not telling you to get the KB out from the current zone -you need it for Hangover-, just to keep an eye on the Solomons. The americans have two crack marine divisions available in early-to-mid-42, making an early assault on Munda and/or Shortlands feasible. If they put a foothold there and develop the bases up to level four, say bye bye to Rabaul as a viable base...something which has serious consecuences, as I see it.
I think that's the key here. You'll miss Hiryu and Soryu a lot...those two carriers with Junyo and Hiyo would be enough to keep the americans away from any offensive operations in the waters near Rabaul for a loooong time...and with the rest of KB you'd have enough to achieve the force projection you need in India...
But such is life
however if australian troops are redeployed into India Hangover will probably stall...with the KB heavily committed in the Bay of Bengal they might slip past your attention and then you'd have some nasty surprises awaiting for you...not good
.
I see a potentially fatal breach here. Wobbly doesn't need the Marianas. Until 1944 and masses of B29s, they are mostly worthless. Historically the Marianas were a vital key because they were into Superfortress range to Japan. In 1943 they can be skipped by. If you lose Rabaul as a viable defensive base you're giving up most of New Guinea. A concerted trhust to reconquer all the island puts Philliphines into range of allied bombers. The assault to Phillipines may perfectly come from the south, not the east, and New Guinea is a magnific springboard for it...
the sequence goes more or less like:
-you lose Rabaul as a viable base too soon, you lose all Eastern New Guinea too soon.
-You lose Eastern NG, you are vulnerable in Western Guinea
-Wobbly gets a good base in NG to put heavies on, and you get Phillipines worked upside down.
-Wobbly gets a good base in NG to put Mids on, and you get the southern Phillipine islands bombed until only rubble's left
-Wobbly uses NG as springboard and Voila!...Leyte Gulf happens in early 1944. You will have to commit all your defenses here or you're toast, and by this time the correlation of forces is heavily biased against you. The operation can be costly for Wobbly but he can get the losses. You can't...and you WILL stand heavier losses against Hellcats, Helldivers and Avengers.
-Wobbly gets a couple of big bases in Philliphines and you very well can start praying about your convoys to Japan.
-Japan starves without resources
-War is over
.
See what I try to say?
not calling for you dividing your forces...just trying to warn you -don't let the americans deny you the use of Rabaul. If Rabaul is gone, you're in deep trouble. Maybe even if Hangover succeeds
.
which is the key for victories, but remember...you keep the initiative on ONE theater at a time...where the KB is. Elsewhere, he's got the initiative -and you must react.
So better try and anticipate to his moves
.

Many of your answers make sense, however I see some points worth a thought

I'm not unaware of the dangers of letting Wobbly get a foothold in the South Pacific, but there are several reasons for not
moving the KB back (as this would be the only way I could counterattack)
of course I'm not telling you to get the KB out from the current zone -you need it for Hangover-, just to keep an eye on the Solomons. The americans have two crack marine divisions available in early-to-mid-42, making an early assault on Munda and/or Shortlands feasible. If they put a foothold there and develop the bases up to level four, say bye bye to Rabaul as a viable base...something which has serious consecuences, as I see it.
Only by defeating the American Navy in the Southern Pacific can I successfully win the war. How many cv/cvl/cve did they produce during the war?...think it was 90! -> Mission Impossible! I don't really believe in this, especially not as I've already lost 2 fleet carriers.
I think that's the key here. You'll miss Hiryu and Soryu a lot...those two carriers with Junyo and Hiyo would be enough to keep the americans away from any offensive operations in the waters near Rabaul for a loooong time...and with the rest of KB you'd have enough to achieve the force projection you need in India...
But such is life

These are my reasons for seeking a decisive engagement in India in 1942-1943.
If Hangover succeeds, I will re-deploy as soon as possible and try to regain lost ground and defeat the Imperialist Coalation.
however if australian troops are redeployed into India Hangover will probably stall...with the KB heavily committed in the Bay of Bengal they might slip past your attention and then you'd have some nasty surprises awaiting for you...not good

If it fails, I will still withdraw the bulk of my forces as soon as possible and try to counterattack before the enemy gains too much of a quantitative and qualitative superiority. I don't really have to fight a decisive battle around Rabaul! I'll withdraw to the Marianas and poor Al if he attacks too early!
I see a potentially fatal breach here. Wobbly doesn't need the Marianas. Until 1944 and masses of B29s, they are mostly worthless. Historically the Marianas were a vital key because they were into Superfortress range to Japan. In 1943 they can be skipped by. If you lose Rabaul as a viable defensive base you're giving up most of New Guinea. A concerted trhust to reconquer all the island puts Philliphines into range of allied bombers. The assault to Phillipines may perfectly come from the south, not the east, and New Guinea is a magnific springboard for it...
the sequence goes more or less like:
-you lose Rabaul as a viable base too soon, you lose all Eastern New Guinea too soon.
-You lose Eastern NG, you are vulnerable in Western Guinea
-Wobbly gets a good base in NG to put heavies on, and you get Phillipines worked upside down.
-Wobbly gets a good base in NG to put Mids on, and you get the southern Phillipine islands bombed until only rubble's left
-Wobbly uses NG as springboard and Voila!...Leyte Gulf happens in early 1944. You will have to commit all your defenses here or you're toast, and by this time the correlation of forces is heavily biased against you. The operation can be costly for Wobbly but he can get the losses. You can't...and you WILL stand heavier losses against Hellcats, Helldivers and Avengers.
-Wobbly gets a couple of big bases in Philliphines and you very well can start praying about your convoys to Japan.
-Japan starves without resources
-War is over

See what I try to say?

Believe me, I'm not over confident - but I'm very determined. I think that only by committing 110% to Hangiver will it be possible to win a decisive victory. I'm not going to divide my forces and squander this opportunity - as it's the only one I'm going to get in this game.
not calling for you dividing your forces...just trying to warn you -don't let the americans deny you the use of Rabaul. If Rabaul is gone, you're in deep trouble. Maybe even if Hangover succeeds

I very much prefer to make the enemy react to my initiatives than vice versa!
which is the key for victories, but remember...you keep the initiative on ONE theater at a time...where the KB is. Elsewhere, he's got the initiative -and you must react.
So better try and anticipate to his moves
