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I think we posted simultaneously [:D].. after that attack then YES hammer the blighters out of there .. he will have a horrible time rebulding them in the PI too ..

I'd still recommend against it.

You also have to consider that you have support troops (probably a lot of them if most your base forces, etc. are currently in Manila) that are adding to your defensive AV. They won't add to your offensive AV. Conversely he'll have support troops adding to his defensive AV.

Even if you succeed, what do you gain besides a few ground loss points? Not worth the loss of supplies, particularly since the ground combat isn't a sure thing IMO.

One word in support of the idea - going for it would be more fun. [:)]

ORIGINAL: ctangus

You also have to consider that you have support troops (probably a lot of them if most your base forces, etc. are currently in Manila) that are adding to your defensive AV. They won't add to your offensive AV. Conversely he'll have support troops adding to his defensive AV.

That's a killer argument. Attack cancelled.

Ctangus, Rob, ny59giants, you are excellent advisors! What am I paying you guys at the moment? 0$, right? I'm going to DOUBLE your pay right now!! [:D]

Any requests for screenshots?

"
Even if you succeed, what do you gain besides a few ground loss points? Not worth the loss of supplies, particularly since the ground combat isn't a sure thing IMO.
"

You WILL permanently kill off 10-25% of the retreating japanese forces .. thats a real gain in game terms. Maybe i'm being agressive but i'd still attack him .. disruption will be through the roof after that attck of his. even if you do bounce i bet you take minumal losses due to his appaling dis/morale/fatigue. Just check the allied commanders though .. some are really C%$p. and the tank advantage makes a lot of differance imo.

If your unsure do deliberate attack vs a shock one . less risk.

OOH double pay .. that'll be no beers all round [:D]

January 27th, 1942

Malaya:

About 40 Lilys and Helens attack Singapore port and sink the only ships still in the harbor, 6 barges. Today I learned that planes attack barges disbanded into port...

This was only the prelude to another Japanese ground offensive at Singapore:



I'm worried by the fact that my casualties are higher than the Japanese (not that there is anything I could do against that). Supplies are down to 11.000, but forts are up to 7.

DEI:

To my surprise Gary did not retreat his convoy from Malang (only the cripples are moving back to Makassar)! Is he in such desperate need of supplies that he is willing to sacrifice dozens of ships? Great, at least two more days of airstrikes against completely defenseless ships (no more AAA is reported, all ships must have run out of ammo). Forecast is rainy though, so the happy days might be over soon.

No Allied submarines hit today - to the contrary, SS KXVIII was hit by two depth charges (36/78/0) and which will hopefully make it to Tjilitjap. So there are still some depth charges left on the escorts, but they should run out of ammo soon, too.

My cruisers ran into empty hexes because of Gary's "surprise move" back to Malang, only a badly damaged MSW was found and sunk. Lets see what tomorrow brings...



Status report of the Japanese convoy:

28 AK: sunk: 3 (+1), heavy damage: 3 (+1), slight damage: 3 (+1)
34 AP: sunk: 8 (+4), heavy damage: 3 (-2), slight damage: 5 (+2)

1 CS: sunk
11 DD: sunk: 3, heavy damage: 1 (+1)
2 MSW: sunk: 1 (+1)
2 PC
2 PG: sunk: 1

I've noticed that as soon as a ship is damaged by a single bomb, the chances that it is hit by more bombs during the next attacks increase dramatically. I have seen 3 B17s hitting a damaged ship with 1 bomb each, and 10 LB and 7 Dauntless miss an undamaged AK. Maybe the accuracy routine is a bit too reliant on the damage level of the target...?

Philippines:

Already covered above. Thanks again for the comments. [:)]

China:

The Japanese Bde at Kanhsien tries another deliberate attack and is again defeated by a single Japanese corps, which couldn't participate in the general retreat from southern China because it is a static unit:

Ground combat at Kanhsien
 
Japanese Deliberate attack
 
Attacking force 10590 troops, 20 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 135
Defending force 7761 troops, 41 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 240
 
Japanese max assault: 127 - adjusted assault: 0 
Allied max defense: 240 - adjusted defense: 381
 
Japanese assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 5)
 
Japanese ground losses:
666 casualties reported
Guns lost 1
 
Allied ground losses:
20 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Otherwise, China is completely quiet (except for the Japanese training raids, of course).

SoPac:

No sign of Mini KB. My carriers will move to Pago Pago to refuel, and then head back to Pearl Harbor. Sys damage for most ships is in the 5-11 range....

SS Barracuda finds and sinks AK Sakito Maru in the Gilbert Islands, but otherwise no contacts. KB should be at Kwajalein right now, the BBs somwhere to the southeast. I've got 8 submarines in the vicinity.

CentPac:

My ASW TF damaged I-17 at Christmas Island with several penetrating hits. I guess that Gary will retreat his "static" subs from my CentPac bases soon.

---

Overall, it was a bad day for Japanese APs: 4 were sunk at Malang, two succumed to their wounds at Baker Island, and another one didn't make it back from Midway.

ORIGINAL: ctangus

Good job with the surface action off Java. Any Brit CVs nearby? (It's been a while since I've started a CHS game, and never a 2.x one - I forget their arrival dates.)

Sadly the 2 British CVs are at Bombay. But Repulse and Revenge will arrive at Christmas Island tomorrow, my local fuel depot. I might send them to Malang.

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Be advised you probably will be subject to the 1/2 CAP rule if you fight in the Pago Pago hex.

Great AAR, BTW. Very enjoyable.

Thank you very much, witpqs! The 1/2 air missions (not only CAP) rule was the reason why I sent my carriers to the hex northwest of Pago Pago. Now Mini KB didn't show up, and I lost a turn which I could have used to refuel my carriers. Still, better safe than sorry, I guess..

The next time he hits Manilla and gets rebuffed you should immediately shock attack + Pursue. You should get at least a 1:1 and possibly a 2:1. You have the space to shock attack + pursue on 3 or 4 consecutive occasions ( don't be afraid to shock attack + pursue with just your armoured units if you infantry aren't in the hex... if you hit him hard every day tanks can be enough to push entire divisions back).
 
What do you gain by this?
1. Serious enemy ground losses.
2. Increased supply levels from supplies you retake and resource production in the Manilla hex which will recommence once you kick the Japanese out of the hex.
3. Disruption of his plans.
 
Obviously you should also try to destroy his forces... you have the troops for it and even pushing back in a manner that is halted will force your opponent to redeploy his follow-on forces, robbing the spear tip of troops it can ill afford to lose given the profligacy with which Japanese troops are being sacrificed. I'm a big fan of un/under-escorted TFs but I do that to maximise operational tempo and only where the removal of escorts tends to lessen the risk of interception. Your opponent is not doing this and he is, rightfully, being made to pay the price... he no longer, from my reading of the situation, has the forces and transport to succesfully invade India. This is a terminal error on his part.
 
 

ORIGINAL: VSWG

Ctangus, Rob, ny59giants, you are excellent advisors! What am I paying you guys at the moment? 0$, right? I'm going to DOUBLE your pay right now!! [:D]

Only double my pay - I'm insulted. I must be paid more than Rob, if only because he spells "humor" incorrectly. I want my pay tripled! [;)]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

The next time he hits Manilla and gets rebuffed you should immediately shock attack + Pursue. You should get at least a 1:1 and possibly a 2:1. You have the space to shock attack + pursue on 3 or 4 consecutive occasions ( don't be afraid to shock attack + pursue with just your armoured units if you infantry aren't in the hex... if you hit him hard every day tanks can be enough to push entire divisions back).

What do you gain by this?
1. Serious enemy ground losses.
2. Increased supply levels from supplies you retake and resource production in the Manilla hex which will recommence once you kick the Japanese out of the hex.
3. Disruption of his plans.

Obviously you should also try to destroy his forces... you have the troops for it and even pushing back in a manner that is halted will force your opponent to redeploy his follow-on forces, robbing the spear tip of troops it can ill afford to lose given the profligacy with which Japanese troops are being sacrificed. I'm a big fan of un/under-escorted TFs but I do that to maximise operational tempo and only where the removal of escorts tends to lessen the risk of interception. Your opponent is not doing this and he is, rightfully, being made to pay the price... he no longer, from my reading of the situation, has the forces and transport to succesfully invade India. This is a terminal error on his part.

Strategically, routing him at Manila (or threatening to do so) should compel him to reinforce the PI's in a substantive manner.

Yes timtom but that's precisely the point:
1. He is unlikely to be able to reinforce significantly over the next 4 or 5 days.
2. Everything he sends to the Phillipines is something he is not sending to reinforce the tip of the spear.
 
Both of these are very welcome victories on the Allied part.

Nice work on the Convoy...

ORIGINAL: ctangus

ORIGINAL: VSWG

Ctangus, Rob, ny59giants, you are excellent advisors! What am I paying you guys at the moment? 0$, right? I'm going to DOUBLE your pay right now!! [:D]

Only double my pay - I'm insulted. I must be paid more than Rob, if only because he spells "humor" incorrectly. I want my pay tripled! [;)]

actually you spelt humour incorrectly [;)] i usually spell it humouo/hunour/humoue..etc. [;)] at least if im ina rush, but if you insist on triple pay , no skin off my back. and i'd like to see the colour of your money 1st [:D]

VSWG .. i'm with nemo. he put way more eloquently what i wanted to say [;)] ( not about the shock persuit gut that makes even more sense imo)..

January 28th, 1942

DEI:

At night CA Pensacola found some cripples near Malang and gave DD Minekaze, AP Kogi Maru and AK Toyama Maru the coup de grace. 2 APs and an AK escaped.

 

Rain in the AM phase prevented my planes from attacking the Japanese convoy, but the weather cleared up in the afternoon and all planes sortied. Todays hits:

AK Hiyori Maru, Bomb hits 3,  on fire,  heavy damage
AP Anrugu Maru, Bomb hits 7, Torpedo hits 1,  on fire,  heavy damage
AP Karimo Maru, Bomb hits 6,  on fire,  heavy damage
AK Toyohasi Maru, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
AK Alaska Maru, Bomb hits 2,  on fire,  heavy damage
AP Horai Maru, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
AK Kyokko Maru, Bomb hits 2,  on fire
AP Kiyoshima Maru, Bomb hits 2,  on fire,  heavy damage
AK Sinko Maru, Bomb hits 2,  on fire

The convoy is now heading southeast, and is already near Bali. Fortunately, Bali is a level 3 AB with some air support squads, so I moved my 2 Dauntless squadrons to Bali. Supply is a problem (only 40 supply points!), so 3 transport plane squadrons are ordered to fly in some more. Hopefully the dive bombers will sortie anyway, they don't have to carry those fancy 1000 GB bombs...

Status report of the Japanese convoy:

29 AK: sunk: 6 (+3), heavy damage: 1 (-2), slight damage: 5 (+2)
34 AP: sunk: 11 (+3), heavy damage: 3, slight damage: 5

1 CS: sunk
11 DD: sunk: 4 (+1)
2 MSW: sunk: 1
2 PC
2 PG: sunk: 1

Japanese torpedo planes from Palembang and Balikpapan sortied against my cruisers at Malang, but 8 Warhawks on LRCAP did a good job: they shot down 7 Nells and 5 Bettys, several more turned back, and only 1 torpedo hit CA Canberra (20/36/4). All cruisers are now ordered back to Tjilitjap, where 90 fighters are flying CAP.

APD Patrol Boat No. 39 was looking for submarines at Balikpapan, but found a VH2 mine (heavy damage reported).

Near Kuching S-37 torpedoed MSW Ranzan Maru.

China:
[>:]

SoPac:

SS I-168 and DD Namikaze sink at Baker Island. That's the 16th destroyer Gary lost, from 120 he has at game start!

My carriers have refueled at Pago Pago and are now heading slowly to the northeast, following an AO with some fuel. I can't keep them at Pago Pago because of the Emilys at Wallis Island, so I'm moving them slowly to the northeast, always with full fuel tanks.



I'm worried about Operation Passenger: the first convoys will soon be spotted by the Emilys, and with KB and Mini KB in the area I don't think it's safe to unload them. Certainly I'm not able to defend them with 4 carriers and a couple of Mohawks and P40Bs at Pago Pago. Lets hope that Gary moves his carriers to somewhere else...

CentPac:

7 DM arrived at Midway and increased the number of mines at this base to 1200. They were interrupted by I-5, but the torpedo fired at one of the minelayers was a dud. In return, I-5 is damaged by several near misses (one of them damages the forward torpedo tubes).

At Johnston Island an ASW TF slightly damaged I-173 with 6 near misses.

Hi Nemo,
I have no doubt that I can rout his army several times if I can drive him out the Manila hex. I'm not sure if I can do the latter, though. You talked with Cid about supply sinks and the assault value of support units, and if I remember correctly, their number divided by 30 is added to the actual assault value when defending, correct? In that case I doubt I can get anywhere close to 2:1, unless a really bad Japanese attack increases fatigue and disruption dramatically.

Here's what I'm going to do: starting next turn 2 Catalina squadrons will begin flying out aviation support squads to Cagayen, a level 4 AFB with 4.000 supplies. Should Gary try another attack with the same forces (I doubt it, but maybe...) I will transfer all B17s and Hudsons to Cagayen and fly ground attack missions against Manila, to support the shock attack. I'm going to give it a try, but only if Japanese casualties will be higher than 5.000 - I need massively disrupted and fatigued Japanese units in order to succeed.

About India: I didn't know that Japanese APs are that scarce... Now I wish I had pursued that Japanese convoy near Canton Island more aggressively. Good news anyway.

Timtom,
the Philippines aren't on Gary's radar right now - he's pouring everything into CentPac/SoPac and Java at the moment. I doubt he will be able to reinforce Luzon considerably within a week.

Przemcio,
it's like shooting fish in a barrel, really. No CAP, no AA (out of ammo by now), no armored ships to deflect the 500 GB bombs... Can you imagine what would have happened if this convoy would have been spotted and attacked before making landfall at Malang, with 2 full divisions on board?

Rob, ctangus,
of course only the German spelling is correct: Humor, with a capital H. [;)]

I thought the german was "Stimmung" .. well according to babelfish it is [:D]

anyway .. good idea about manilla but don't forget that casualties are related to the attacking force size so the last attack where 4000 odd perished would have been enough esp. with the bomber attacks ( very very good plan imo).

Defensive value is calculated as follows:  ( Combat squads x experience/100 ( modified by fatigue, morale and planning) + support squads/10 x experience/100 (modified by fatigue, morale and planning) All of the above is then modified by terrain bonuses.
 
Essentially though a 400 AV infantry division will add another 40 AV in terms of support squads. However if they are badly disrupted following a failed attack ( 75% disruption for example) what could have been 440 AV x 4 ( urban bonus) = 1,760 for a single division in defence will be reduced to about 440 AV... Obviously though the troops which have failed that assault won't be anywhere near that level as they will not have 100% experience and will have high fatigue, poor morale and all sorts of other negative modifiers.
 
Obviously you have to calculate this properly but remember the thing that causes MOST attacks in the real world to fail is an over-valuation of the enemy's strength such that the attack is never made in the first place.
 
If you REALLY want to be conservative about it you can always leave one of your relatively weak divisions out of the assault such that it will, with all the positive modifiers, be able to throw back any immediate Japanese riposte should your attack fail.
 
Just my opinion though.

Rob

LOL. [:D] BTW, It's "humor", yes "humor". Or if I've had a few glasses of wine, "ghuomout" [;)]

VSWG

I'm starting to be convinced by Rob & Nemo's arguments. I'm still not sure that an attack is a certainty to be successful, but it might be & I wasn't considering possible follow-on attacks, resources you might free up, etc.

In other words, the rewards might be worth the gamble.

Does the CHS 2.+ build have resources in Manila? I assume there are some at Clark. What other Jap forces are there in the Phillipines?

Whatever you do, good luck!

January 29th, 1942

This was a boring combat report, until I loaded the actual save.

Malaya, Philippines:

We're back to the usual daily bombardments at Singapore and Manila, with some air raids thrown in here and there. Some comments on the Manila offensive later.

DEI:

The Dauntless from Bali flew, and they even carried 1000 GB bombs! [X(] Unfortunately, very few hits were scored today despite all planes flying in the AM and PM phase. For instance, 40 Hudsons and 50 Martins scored only 1 hit (weather: overcast/partly cloudy, fatigue is still below 15). [:(]



The submarine action: [8|]

Sub attack near Malang at 22,66

Japanese Ships
SS I-156

Allied Ships
SC OJR-1, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
SC OJR-3
SC OJR-6
SC OJR-5
SC OJR-4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack at 25,68

Japanese Ships
AK Koto Maru
AP Dainiunyo Maru
AP Nichibi Maru
PC Kyo Maru #13
PC Kyo Maru #12
PG Kamitsu Maru
DD Shinonome

Allied Ships
SS Shark

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack at 26,68

Japanese Ships
AK Koryu Maru (DUDS)
AK Kirikawa Maru
AK Lisbon Maru
PC Kyo Maru #13
PC Kyo Maru #12
PG Kamitsu Maru
DD Shinonome

Allied Ships
SS Sturgeon, hits 1

He fooled me again: I was sure he would move the convoy to the southeast, to get away from Soerabaja ASAP and to force my subs into shallow waters. Next turn I'll get him...

Status of the convoy:

29 AK: sunk: 6, heavy damage: 4 (+3), slight damage: 3 (-2)
34 AP: sunk: 12 (+1), heavy damage: 2 (-1), slight damage: 9 (+4)

1 CS: sunk: 1
11 DD: sunk: 4
2 MSW: sunk: 2 (+1)
2 PC
2 PG: sunk: 1

Gary swept Soerabaja with 44 Zeros today. The troops haven't moved from Malang yet.

China, SWPac:
[>:]

SoPac:

Well, well, what do we have here:



[Edit: I just noticed that no CVs are reported near Wallis Island in this screenshot. When I loaded the game the first time, the report was 2 CVs and 2 CAs.]

Mini KB is back! But why? Is this a trap for my carriers (he spotted Lexington near Pago Pago two days ago), and KB is lurking to the north ? I've lost contact to KB a few hexes northeast of Kwajalein 4 days ago. Lets see... 1 day to reach Kwajalein, 1 day to refuel, and then 2 days rushing south? Might be, but what about these reports:



OK, so I've got 4 options:

1. Retreat my carriers and the convoys from Pago Pago. Better safe than sorry.

2. Move the convoy to Pago Pago (CAP: 35 Mohawks, 11 P40Bs) and start unloading, don't move the carriers (forecast for Pago Pago: clear, southeastern temperate: overcast). My carriers probably won't be spotted, but my 2 Catalina squadrons at Pago and the planes from Canton and Suva will probably tell me what's going on here. Low risk (I doubt he's going to attack Pago Pago), I still have the option to attack tomorrow (especially if he spots the convoy and decides to attack Pago Pago), but I might lose my only opportunity to jump on Mini KB.

3. As 2, but move the carriers closer to Pago Pago, set react to 6 and LRCAP the carriers from Pago Pago. If he attacks Pago Pago, my carriers will jump him, if not he will spot them.

3. Sprint to Wallis Island, and attack. Fuel tanks are full, all planes repaired, fatigue low and morale high. But will he stick around for another day?

Now you might ask what is actually on these transports: well, some fuel, some supply, base forces, RTCs, Engineers,...

... oh, and I almost forgot: 72 P40E Warhawks... [8D] I would need several days to repair them though, Pago Pago has already too many planes for the base force to handle. But then, I've got base forces in these transports, too.

Another thing to keep in mind: today's the 30th of January, in two days another point of the Zero bonus will be gone.

As always, comments are welcome. [:)] I haven't sent the save yet, and I intend to keep it a while to think about this.

CentPac:

5 Hudsons from Canton attacked the convoy at Baker and put three bombs into AK Houku Maru. Gary's keeping this convoy at Baker, is he waiting for KB to recommence the attack on Canton? Is Mini KB a diversion from Canton Island Part II, this time with air cover?

This game is becoming my favourite here by far after yesterday I have just read it through from the beginning!!! So I can't stand out from commenting now...

I think you have to think about if trading one of your fleet CVs for one or two of his smaller ones does worth the risk. If You say yes then retreat the convoy temporarily and get your CVs into a position where you'd be able to attack from two hexes next turn (that's the TBDs torpedo range in this version right?)

BTW when do you get Hornet?

Also I saw that you put in some replacement ship art. Have you considered adding Fremen's other ones? Just check this link:

http://www.telefonica.net/web2/witp/en/

Cheers,