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Java: Western Java appears lightly held by Japan. That mysterious IJ TF bound for Tjilitjap apparently made it there and is retiring. I have no idea. My best guess is that it was testing to see if the Allies reacted. I didn't because I don't want to reveal my strength against a TF that, while vulnerable, didn't appear to be a threat of any kind.

I was curious how you would react to this. I also was wondering if there was some kind of a lure about Steve's move, to get you to react with some force. I love this non-response. Keeps him guessing in many ways, especially as he gets almost no important sigint.

Once you receive significant quantities of 2E & 4E bombers, his entire position in the DEI will come completely apart....this is amazing and frightening to watch.

The Happy Stalemate at Magwe.

No sign of major enemy reinforcements on the way (regular recon of Rangoon always shows four units present).

If the Allies succeed in making it difficult and hazardous for Japanese shipipng to move in and out of Singapore, by virtue of major Allied airfields at places like Djambi, Singkep, and Ketapang, then I think it is no longer possible for Japan to defend Burma. Therefore, the way to win the war in Burma is to build up the DEI bases. Consequently, the Allies aren't reinforcing Burma. The force on hand is the force that must hold the line until the DEI campaign resolves.

Where the heck are his troops? He's got a dozen or more divisions that should now be available....of course, minus the whooping you gave him in China....

CR - Have you detected any SigInt indicating Chez is prepping his LCUs for Sumatra and vicinity?

So odd. The whole idea of playing historically seems to have gone out the window. The whole point of Burma was to cut supply to China, right?

I haven't sen you mention China lately. How are things there?

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Where the heck are his troops? He's got a dozen or more divisions that should now be available....of course, minus the whooping you gave him in China....

Its also beyond my comprehension. Even more so why he didnt at least cleared out Borneo.

The situation in NoPac. I cannot imagine Steve not conducting a massive counter invasion of Para, and an easier and less massive counter invasion of Onne, before winter conditions set in. To me, it would be criminally negligent to fail to do so. But, to be honest, I'm not positive that Steve is going to. If he doesn't, the Allies will then have four months to resupply and reinforce the islands. These efforts will be contested, but using winter conditions to their advantage, the Allies could well succeed. That, in turn, would make it much more difficult for Japan to counter invade in 1943.

About now I expect a 10 division landing at Pearl.



Does he still hold the Gilberts? southern Solomons?

I wonder what the Soviets would be thinking with the Yanks at their back door at Paramushiro? Intervention must surely be on Stalins mind, but how and whom.

To reply to some of the questons and comments from the kind and well regarded peanut gallery:

1. I am getting SigInt of troops prepping for bases in Sumatra - mainly small units prepping for Palembang. This turn, for instance, it was two regiments.

2. I know the location of six divisons, probably seven, aside from those in China. Two in Burma, two at Padang, and two at Malaybaylay. The seventh was recently reported to be on a maru bound for Manila.

3. I think alot of IJ divisions were sent to China after the Allied spring and summer offensive mauled about eight IJA divisions. I suspect that is part of the reason for Steve's reticense.

4. In China, Japan has concetrated troops in cities, so there aren't the "easy pickings" that were out there during the spring and summer offensive. I'm toying around with some ideas, but right now things are quiet in this theater.

5. I am somewhat concerned that Steve might mount some kind of huge campaign at this late date. As I've reported before, I've dismissed most of these possibilities because, in my estimation, the commitment to important but far-flung places would create bigger and better opportunities for the Allies in the DEI. Hawaii, Australia, New Zealand, and the Aleutians are vulnerable, but the risk to benefit analysis is very satsifactory in my estimation. I am also somewhat alert to a crazy landing on the West Coast with the idea of destroying American aircraft factories. I have decent troop concentrations at some of the major cities and a fair number of aircraft squadrons.

6. While my mind toys with the "what ifs" and the "what in the world is he doing" kind of things, my overall impression is that Steve just doesn't know what he wants to do. At some point, I expect a concentrated attack in the DEI. That's the only theater that matters now (well, that and China). He has to do something and eventually he will. Since the Allied position is relatively small, with narrow "shoulders," a sudden and massed attack will fall on my bases and ships and cause quite a bit of damage. That will happen. But the Allied position is strong overall, and i'm working on widening those shoulders.

I think Chez lets the AI run the game for 2-3 weeks then pops in to see whats happening.
 
Does he comment on GJ/raders AAR's, is he getting worried about an end run into the heart of the Empire so is building up his next line of defence?
 
It doesnt make sense so lotts of silly ideas get formulated.

Last screen shot for the day: Cenpac. There's a flurry of activity here with the presence of IJN combat and carrier TFs. In the main, though, this is now a backwater.

The Allies have accomplished the objective of securing and strengthening a chain of bases to create an MLR. Tarawa is the key. No more Allied troops will be committed to this theater in the foreseeable future. Steve is welcome to expend time and effort attacking any of these bases.

I honestly don't think he'll do much else. I concur with your thesis that the best move in Burma is to isolate Singapore. Because isolating Singers carries lots of other benefits, it's two birds with one stone. My goal at this point would be to isolate Singapore and develop bases from which 4Es, 2Es and even SBDs could ravage every oil port in enemy hands.

Does bombing a port facility (not strategic bombing, just port bombing) inhibit loading of oil aboard shipping? If so, I can begin doing that here and there.

I imagine 100% damage would prevent loading anything. Sinking enemy shipping anywhere near an oil port with SBDs would also work. [:D]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Does bombing a port facility (not strategic bombing, just port bombing) inhibit loading of oil aboard shipping? If so, I can begin doing that here and there.

Damage reduces the port level by a straight percentage (ie 50% damage -> 50% port level), rounded down, so even 1% port damage will knock off a level, as a level 7 port becoming a 6.99 port gets rounded down to 6.

Looking at the book, load rates vary by cargo type but they are all linear relationships, so a level 3 port loads at half the speed of a level 6 one, and a level 0 port has zero load/turn.

When I mentioned bombing Balikpapan a few days ago it was to take out the ports. If the port is damaged you can't do much with what's in it.

Miri should be within range if Balikpapan isn't. Has he fixed the Oil there to better than the 150 or so it starts with?

And having just read this AAR finally, all I can say is

...[&:]

[X(][X(]




[&o]

Balikpan oil is untouched. Miri oil was about 50% damaged and hasn't been repaired.

My bombers don't have range yet to hit Balikpapan and Miri. Niether the B-17E and B17F can strike from Oosthaven or Palembang. The LB-30 can hit both bases, I think, and the B-24D can hit Balipapan at max range.

At this point, I'm not going to do any raids because they would be weak and would only serve to put Steve on notice. Better to wait until Billiton Island or Toabali reach level four or higher and then strike in strength.