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Orm wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2026 8:10 am

rkr1958 wrote: Fri Aug 21, 2026 9:05 pm
For the LOVE OF ALL THAT IS MWIF, how many times do the WIF gods need to teach me this lesson?! No matter how favorable the naval situation is, do NOT search when a critical invasion/debark is scheduled!

MacArthur had a lucky escape.

Even if you had not searched, wouldn't Japan have searched anyway?

That's an interesting question. I'm not sure because the IJN was in a highly unfavorable position. The IJA in China needed the IJN to maintain presence and reestablish supply. For that objective minimizing naval searches is best.

From a counterfactual perspective this has a lot of parallels to Taffy 3. In Taffy 3, Halsley was baited by the IJN to go after their aircraft carriers leaving USN escort carriers and invasion transports vulnerable. In this counterfactual the USN screening capital ships and USN escort destroyers were baited by an IJN CV and CA to a surface duel while the IJN escorting destoryers detached and surprised the USN transport force. Unlike history the IJN choose to go after the transport force when they could have potentially bagged the new USN fleet carrier Essex.

Even for this counterfactual result, I'm not so sure the USN is unhappy with the result. In fact, the army is accusing the Navy of using MacArthur as bait the knocked out IJNs patrolling CV, CA and their escort DDs. A claim Adm King vehemently denies.

Macarthur was indeed lucky that his HQ survived. Even so, it'll be at best 2 turns (4 months) before he'll can make his to China. That 2 turn return from the US west Coast will still require high sea lift priority which General Marshall will demand and get from Adm King. Though Adm King promised to look into if there's anyway to get MacArthur to China next turn.

In conclusion, I classify this as a short term tactical victory for the IJN and a long term strategic victory for the USN given IJN ability to supply the IJA went from vulnerable to extremely vulnerable with their tactical victory.

My question for you or anyone who wishes to answer is would you have searched as Japan if the allies had not?

A second question too for anyone wishing to answer. The IJN could have avoided. If you as Japan would you have avoided given the highly favorable search rolls?

rkr1958 wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2026 11:40 am
My question for you or anyone who wishes to answer is would you have searched as Japan if the allies had not?

A second question too for anyone wishing to answer. The IJN could have avoided. If you as Japan would you have avoided given the highly favourable search rolls?

Yes, I would have searched. Of course, faced with the situation for real (in a game), I might have another answer. The Japanese situation is desperate, so I would made desperate searches with the hope that luck will improve the situation, or at least stall the enemy progress.

No, I definitely would not have avoided.

II the Japanese situation would have been greatly improved later on so that it favoured Japan then I might have waited. But it is my understanding that the situation would not be in Japans favour even with Japanese reinforcements. Thus, an attrition war should favour US at this point. So going for the high profile target (HQI) while it can still be targeted would have been my priority. Keeping the supply to China seems difficult anyway, so that would have had lower priority.

Orm wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2026 10:54 am

rkr1958 wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2026 11:40 am
My question for you or anyone who wishes to answer is would you have searched as Japan if the allies had not?

A second question too for anyone wishing to answer. The IJN could have avoided. If you as Japan would you have avoided given the highly favourable search rolls?

Yes, I would have searched. Of course, faced with the situation for real (in a game), I might have another answer. The Japanese situation is desperate, so I would made desperate searches with the hope that luck will improve the situation, or at least stall the enemy progress.

No, I definitely would not have avoided.

II the Japanese situation would have been greatly improved later on so that it favoured Japan then I might have waited. But it is my understanding that the situation would not be in Japans favour even with Japanese reinforcements. Thus, an attrition war should favour US at this point. So going for the high profile target (HQI) while it can still be targeted would have been my priority. Keeping the supply to China seems difficult anyway, so that would have had lower priority.

Interesting. In a solo game how does one capture that uncertainty of search decision across playing styles? A 50/50 die roll ro search or not? Maybe that's too simple. My Rosetta Stone of solo play would be some likelihood gain/loss function against which I could roll a d10 or even d100 against to search or not.

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. Allied #1. Western Front.

USAAF Strategic Bombing Raid. Hamburg, Germany.

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. Allied #1. Pacific/Asian Theaters.

USN Strategic Bombing Raids x 2. Shanghai, China. Canton, China.

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. Allied #1. Western Front.

Combat Logs. Joint US & CW Land Command. USAAF Resupply (Reorg). Joint RAF & USAAF Air Command.

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. Allied #1. Western Front. Maps.

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. Allied #1. Eastern Front.

Combat Logs. Fronts Land Command. Air Armies Command.

Turn 21. Jan/Feb 1943. Allied #1. Eastern Front. Maps.