Here is what I did with these units:
1. HQ-I Yeremenko railed to the mountain hex southeast of the "Armenia" label (see 2nd image)
2. 39th INF moves into the mountains 2 hexes southeast
3. HQ-I Timoshenko and the 13th MECH Division move to the mountains southwest of Grozny
4. The 4th GD MECH takes the place of the 2nd ARM northeast of Tiflis, getting disorganized
5. The 2nd ARM takes the place of the 9th INF
6. The 9th INF moves into the swamp northwest of Batum, getting disorganized
What this does:
The Germans can probably get an attack on the 4th Siberian INF that will kill it, and possibly leave the Germans organized. Even if they are disorganized, the swamp needs coverage for next turn; better to get the defender there now, before the turn ends, so that it can be organized for next turn. The reason I pulled the 39th INF back so far in the east is that his only "safe" position to the north is where he was, in the mountains west of Grozny. Although it would end up OOS, the German 6-6 MECH could still make a move around it into the hex southeast of Grozny, putting the 39th INF OOS, and in position to make a dash for the Turkish border. I could have left Timoshenko, the 39th INF and the 2-5 MECH in a single stack at Grozny, for a total of 13 factors, but if the next weather roll produces Rain or worse in the North Temperate zone (40% chances) all 3 units would end up OOS. That would prevent them from helping the rest of the line, if the help is needed. I'd rather have them in supply and able to assist wherever the help is needed. That means helping in the South, too (see below).
Starting with the 9th INF in the swamp, and moving clockwise, the defensive strength for each hex is (with die roll modifiers): 8 (+1 ), 10 (+1), 14, 14, 12 (+1), 14, 12
Now, for the South:
Here is what I did with these units:
1. (Repeat) HQ-I Yeremenko railed to the mountain hex southeast of the "Armenia" label
2. Kuybyshev MIL takes the place of the 1st CAV
3. 1st CAV moves to the hex west of Baku
4. 50th INF and Astrakhan MIL both move to the river bend 2 hexes west of Baku
What this does:
The only attack that the Axis can make that leads directly to either Baku or the Turkish border is on the stack in the river bend or on Yeremenko. The best they can get against Yeremenko is 18:12 (3:2 +1 Assault) from a single hexside, and the best they can get against the river bend is 15:9 (3:2 -1 Blitz, with a 33% chance at 2:1 -1 Blitz), from 2 hexsides. I could have railed the 2-5 Mech from Timoshenko to Yeremenko, but that would still have a 25% chance to end up with a 3:2 Assault, but with a +2 modifier. At best it would be a 1:1 +2, and that is the same thing as a 3:2 +1 Assault. The benefit is that it places a 2nd unit there to take the loss if only 1 unit is killed (40% chance), but it also leaves Timoshenko facing a potential 3:1 Assault in the North.
If the Germans try the attack on Yeremenko at 3:2 +1 odds, there's a 30% chance that one of the Corps will be killed in addition to the Division. They only have 4 full Corps in the South, and all of them are needed to activate Turkey. They'll want to wait another impulse before they try the attack.
The MIL in the mountains is a sacrifice. It holds up the push toward either goal by blocking HQ-A Guderian and the MECH stacked with him . . . for a single impulse, but it might be enough to hold on to Baku or to prevent the Turks from joining the war, or both -- until next turn. It is now Allied Impulse #7 (10% chance to end the turn), and the Germans probably won't attack Yeremenko during Axis Impulse #9 (30% chance to end the turn). For Allied Impulse #11, the chance to end the turn goes up to 50% to 70% (depending on how many of the Allies Pass). That means the earliest shot at killing Yeremenko and keeping all Corps alive would be Axis Impulse #12, and Turkey almost certainly remains neutral for the rest of the turn. (From the German perspective, this might convince me to suck in my gut and try the 3:2 +1 attack).
So, here's what the overall defense looks like:
