Matrix Games Forums

10/12/43 to 10/17/43
 
Philippines:  This has become the main focus of Allied efforts.  Cagayan is the only city held by the Japs on Mindanoa, and the first Allied unit arrives there and, on the 12th, tries a deliberate attack at 0:1.  This attack reveals that the city is lightly held - three base forces and an SNLF unit - so it won't hold for long.  More units arrive (the Allies have three divisions and a combat engineer unit) on the 13th, and this deliberate attack is at 3:1, reducing forts from 4 to 3.  Then the Allies take the city on the 15th.  With Mindanoa in hand and the Allies in possession of Jolo, Puerto Princessa, Zamboanga, San Juan, and San Juan Buenavista, the Allies will focus in the short term on some of the smaller, mid-PI islands like Iloilo.  The Luzon invasion TFs are nearing Pago Pago, so that invasion should be ready to go by mid-November.
 
Burma:  Allied bombardments at Rangoon are inflicting 300 to 500 casualties per day.  Several US Army tank regiments (these are povisional troops of some kind) have arrived at Aden over the past few weeks.  Upon arrival, each is loaded on transports for shipment to Bombay.  They will be the next units to arrive at the front.  I may try one more probing deliberate attack in Rangoon.  If it fails miserably, the Allies will probably halt offensive operations in Burma for some time, and focus on holding what they have while all offensive capability is given to the Philippines.

10/18/43 to 10/26/43
 
Philippines:  I wish I had Shermaned...sort of.  A month ago I had a massive invasion force assembled at Midway to move on Marcus.  Eventially, I decided to commit the troops and other assets to the Philippines, both because Marcus looked pretty tough and because the Allies have been making steady progress in the PI.  For the sake of safety, I sent the invasion TFs the long way around to the PI - first to Hawaii, then to Palmyra, now most of the TFs are between Noumea and Pago Pago.  I think I could have cut right across from Marcus and saved a  month.  On the other hand, I am using the extra time to consolidate my hold in Mindanao and the islands to the north and picking up and repositioning troops for the eventual moves on Luzon, Borneo, and Palau.
 
I've been surprised at the lack of opposition in moving on the PI, but that may be changing now.  On the 25th, Miller sent in a combat TF to strike at a small Allied combat TF at Jolo.  I saw them coming and pulled my ships out.  Some PT boats set one Jap DD afire.  Then Allied bombers from Jolo hit the Japs in fairly large numbers, but didn't score well.  Single bombs hit CA Nachi and CLs Kinu and Tatsuta.  Damage was light - no fires seen.
 
I don't think Miller liked the fact that so many Allied bombers were based this far forward.  He sent massed waves of bombers from Luzon and Tarakan on the 26th.  The Allies got much the better of the dogfight, but enough Jap bombers got through to destroy nearly an equal number of bombers on the ground.  For the day, the Japs lost about 80 aircraft to the Allies' 75.
 
The Allied forward airfields are at Jolo, Dadjangas, Davao, and Cotabato.  Backup is provided at Talaud Island and the big bases at Manado, Morotai, and further to the rear.  A large BF and a seabee unit are heading for San Juan, which is currently a level 0 airfield, but can be built to 6 or 7.  That field is just a few hexes south of Manila, and I want it up and at least a 4 before I commit the bulk of my troops to Luzon.  I plan to build up the fields at Cagayan, Tacloban, and Roxas too.
 
Prior to the arrival of the big invasion force currently in SoPac, I hope to land some advance Allied troops around Naga.  This movement and the moves to bolster the airfields mentioned above will stir up Miller, no doubt.  The Allied CVs are currently at Darwin awaiting fuel.  In about a week or ten days, I plan to send them on a cruise NW, slipping by Jolo and Puerto Princessa into the South China Sea.  This will include two Brit CVs, three US CVs, and two or three CVLs.
 
Reinforcing CVs are on the way, including CV Intrepid, two CVLs, and a CVE (all currently in SoPac).
 
The Allies are also retrieving ground units from islands in Timor, Celebes, etc., and also from the rear at places like Port Moresby, Townsville, Noumea, and Auckland, and moving them to Darwin  These units are prepped for Palau and Balakpan.  Around the same time that the Allies move on Luzon, they'll be readying strikes on Borneo (Tarakan may come first, using the troops prepped for Balikpan) and Palau.
 
Things are quiet right now, but November and December should be very busy in this part of the Pacific.
 
Burma:  The Allied siege of Rangoon continues, but I don't have any hopes of taking the city.  I tried a deliberate attack on the 22nd.  It came off at 0:1, dropped forts to 8, and cost the Allies 6941/158/5 to just 1779/39.  I'm going to be content to hold my current positions (or possibly pull back to Meiktila if thigns turn really sour).
 
Java:  Massed B24 strikes from Koepang in Timor have hit Soerabaja.  The most recent strike on the 21st inflicted 33 resource hits.  Most of these B24s will move forward to Manado and the Philippines when it's time for the big strikes.
 
"I wish I had Shermaned":  The reference to Sherman was his march across Georgia in 1864.  He burned Atlanta, moved across 250 miles of enemy terrain, and sent the rest of his army and support back to Tennessee.  A pretty bold move that proved that the interior of the Confederacy was empty.  In my game, I think I can move ships from Midway to PI (bypassing Marcus or Wake) without real threat of interdiction, but I decided not to try it. 
 
 
 
 

10/27/43 to 11/2/43
 
Strategic Situation:  It's getting late in the year.  Here's a report on the points:
Japanese:  37,720; Allies:  32,458
Aircraft lost:  Japs:  17,890; Allies 12,189
Ships lost:  Japs 472 for 6,022 points; Allies 574 for 9,667 points
Jap Capital Ships Lost:   6 CV, 4 CVL, 3 CVE, 1 BB, 13 CA/CL
Allied Capital Ships Lost: 7 CV, 1 CVL, 5 CVE, 12 BB, 26 CA/CL

Since the Allies landed in Timor back in January, all Allied efforts have been in that area, expanding to Bali, Celebes, Moluccas, and southern Philippines.  This has gone well.  The invasion of Java failed, but it led to an important CV engagement that decidedly favored the Allies (the Japs losing 4 CVs near Timor a few months ago).

With the Allies focusing there, they have largely ignored New Guinea, the Solomons, SoPac, and CenPac.  The Japs still control the Marshalls and on to the east through Baker Island as far east as Canton Island.  This makes the Allied supply route torturously long.

In Burma, the Allies are besieging Rangoon but have made little real progress.

China remains a mess, with Allied troops cut off all over the place, but the Japs haven't been able to apply the coup-de-grace and the Allied airforce is beginning to make itself felt.

Philippines:  This will continue to be the focus for the next few months as the Allies try to take Luzon.  The invasion TFs are strung out mostly between Pago Pago and Townsville now.  While awaiting their arrival, US and Aussie troops at Darwin will be re-targeted for Jap held island in the central Philippines (I had previously considered using them for Balikpan, Tarakan, and/or Palau, but have decided to use them to finish off the remaining Jap garrisons south of Luzon:  Iloilo (held by 2 Jap units), Cebu (1 unit, a mixed brigade 10,000 strong), and Ormoc (1 unit).

Miller landed part of an SNLF at Puerto Princessa, but found more than he bargained for.  I had pulled out the Marine parachute detachment and inserted most of the Aussie 30th Brigade.  This island still doesn't have an airfield and it may be awhile before I can get some engineers there.

Miller sent several surface combat TFs (CAs, CLs, and DDs) into Davao on the 28th.  I had more than 20k mines there and a combat TF anchored by BB Washington, so I wasn't worried about the engagement (I saw the Japs coming a day ahead of time).  Sure enough, many Jap ships hit mines (Miller's email comment:  "Just how many mines do you HAVE there?!").  Nevertheless, the Jap ships kept coming, tangling with the combat TF, and then penetrated even further and savaged some ASW TFs.  The Japs ended up losing at least 9 DDs and a CL.  The Allies lost something like 5 DDs and some smaller craft.  But more than a handful of Jap CAs were heavily damaged.  A follow-up strike by Bettys from Luzon got beaten up by CAP, but enough got through to put some TTs into the Allied combat ships, including 2 TT into BB Washington (20 SYS damage) and some CLs.  This engagement was less one-sided than I had expected, but the mines really did some work on the Jap CA/CL roster.  Many should be out of action for quite awhile.

The Allies are currently focusing on the buildup of San Juan, just south of Manila.  The airfield can be built to a level 6 (or 7?), but is currently a zero.  Part of a large base force and part of a SeaBee unit are about to arrive.  Building this base will be priority one for awhile.

Allied CVs are steaming north from Darwin and are currently about to arrive about 180 miles west of Morotai.  Not sure whether I'll slip them into the South China Sea yet.

Allied B24s from Morotai shut down the Jap airfield at Palau.  Now B24s and B17s at Manado and Davao will focus on Tarakan.

A huge B24 strike from Koepang hit Soerabaja on the 2nd resulting in 74 resource hits.  When the Allies move on Luzon, many of these squadrons will move north to support that effort.

Luzon:  Right now it doesn't appear to be heavily garrisoned.  Recon shows 5 Jap units at Manila, for instance.  But if Miller is landing reinforcements further north, that vital city can be beefed up pretty quickly.  But the Allies have a huge army heading this way.  The invasion should begin by the end of November.

Long-term:  Everything hinges on Luzon.  Once the Allies take that key island, I can consider moving on DEI, west toward Vietnam, Thailand, or China, and/or mopping up Jap garrisons in the rear, like Canton Island.

Once your stopped in the PI (by whatever means), I would focus on widing the base so he can not easily launch raids from either shoulder. I would say towards the east with the possibility of making a large pocket of Japanese forces in the Pacific. The priority would be taking bases large enough for your B-29 to pound Japan.

11/3/43 to 11/12/43
 
Philippines:  This struggle is growing in intensity as both sides feed more troops, aircraft and ships into the theater.  I think this will be the decisive battle of the war.  If the Japs can blunt the Allied offensive long enough, or exact a high enough toll, it will be a great victory; if the Allies can seize Luzon and inflict more damaging punishment on the Japs, they will be in great shape for '44 and '45.
 
The Japs have been trying to slow or stop the Allied build-up of the newly taken island bases north of Mindanao, but thus far have paid the higher cost.  Jap bombers have stung a number of small transport convoys taking supplies, engineers, or garrison troops to places like Puerto Princessa and San Jose, but nothing critical has happened.
 
A more determined Jap effort occurred when Miller sent in several surface combat TFs to oppose a transport convoy that began unloading a RCT at Cebu on November 7.  A tremendous number of Allied fighters and bombers from both land bases (like Davao, Dadjangas, and Cotabatu) and the Allied CV fleet then just north of Jolo sorties.  On the 9th, 106 SBD, 87 AVG, 87 B25s, and 7B24s flew morning missions and put a TT and 11 bombs into CL Kiso with 4 DDs taking multiple bomb and/or TT hits.  An afternoon raid inflicted more damage.  The Japs lost Kiso and at least 4 DDs.  The Japs didn't get the pleasure of striking the Allied transports as they pulled back two hexes until the coast was clear again.
 
The Jap mixed brigade at Cebu launched a 6:1 assault on the 9th, but failed to dislodge the defenders, inflicting only 25 casualties and taking 51/5/1.  A Jap deliberate attack the 11th came off at 0:1 and cost the Japs 56/2 to 5/0/0.  Another such attack at same odds the next day was catastrophic for the Japs, who lost 1081/11/5 to 0.
 
The remainder of the Allied invasion force is on the way to Cebu from Davao and will be landing over the next three or four days.
 
Allied bombers from the PI, Manado, and Morotai have shut down Tarakan and Palau and will begin working on airfields in the PI and Borneo.  This to suppress Jap air as much as possible as the Luzon invasion force approaches.  Most of these TFs are now between Cairns and Noumea.  Troops should begin landing before month's end.
 
I almost sent the Allied CVs into the South China Sea - they had nearly reached Puerto Princessa - when I decided to pull them back to cover the transport TFs that are making for Cebu from Davao.
 
The Allies are having some trouble getting enough engineers and supplies to Puerto Princessa and San Jose to get those important airfields up and running.  I will try to expedite the process over the next week.  It is essential to get San Jose up to a level 3 or 4 airfield by the time the Luzon troops arrive.  It is currently a 0 and can be built to a 6, so once the engineers and supplies are on hand building should make quick progress.  I'm also sending some infantry to San Jose post haste in case Miller tries something bold or desperate.  That is the most important potential base south of Luzon now.
 
Solomon Islands:  A Jap invasion force carrying an SNLF just arrived at Buin, which is occupied by part of a NZ cavalry brigade.  I've largely ignored the Solomons since the Allies grabbed Buin long, long ago, but as luck would have it the Allies had CV Intrepid, CVL Langley, and a CVE close by (they were making their way from Noumea to Darwin).  These CVs are steaming north to a point 120 miles south of Buin and should strike tomorrow.  LBA from Milne Bay hit the invasion fleet yeterday, damaging two transports.  I don't know if Miller has enough to re-take Buin, but I won't lose any sleep over it if he does since this is of marginal importance compaired to the PI.  However, I do hope his ships get rude treatment tomorrow.
 
Java:  Allied B24s from Koepang hit Soerabaja in large numbers one day during this period, but were swarmed by Jap fighters.  I think the bombers destroyed about 17 resource points.  It suits me to have Miller heavily guarding Soerabaja since I don't have any near-term desire to be in that area.
 
Burma:  The Allies siege of Rangoon continues with daily bombardments that usually inflict about 300 casualties.  The status quo suits me for now.
 
China:  Miller tried more deliberate attacks against that long-isolated Chinese stack stuck between Changsha and Nanchang.  A 1:1 on the 5th cost the Japs 15,780/295/30 to 3,750/0/0.  A 0:1 the next day cost the Japs 275/23 to 440/0.  Another 0:1 the next day cost the Japs 6971/47/31 to 1887/0/0.  Eventually Miller will extinquish this outpost, but it has taken an amazing amount of time and cost the Japs huge numbers.  I think the stack has held out long enough to allow the situation elsewhere in China to settle down.  The Allies should be able to hold a line just west of Changsha.
 
Subs:  I don't mention these much any longer, although sub and ASW warfare has been very active.  Miller works ASW very, very, very hard, especially in the Straits of Malacca, near Japan, and around his island outposts like Marcus.  He's damaged and sunk many Allied subs.  The Allies have gotten a lesser number of Jap subs.  Usually, the victims of subs on both sides are transport ships, but on the 4th, Puffer put 2 TT in to CA Kako just east of Tokyo.

3 or 4 Seabees is the max on a base as any more don't help. Over a certain number of engineer and the number of engineer vehicles factored in get lost over a particular number.

I would check some of your rear areas (or just hit the "G" button) to see where all your AA LCUs are. Find them and start moving them to PI. The large Aviation Rgt are nice for large AF, but those large BF (aviation support 90) are really nice in forward bases as they carry significiant AA guns. [:D]

Move your few Marine TB squadrons to the PI as they only need a size 2 AF to carry torpedoes (most are assigned to the SP command). Time to give him the Kate treatment. [;)]

11/13/43 to 11/17/43
 
Philippines:  The contest for the Philippines continues to develop into a voracious vortex, sucking in everything both sides have.  Over this period, the Japs continued to strongly oppose the main Allied landing at Cebu.  Waves of fighters and bombers from Manila and Clark Field repeatedly hit the ships at Cebu, damaging and sinking many, especially MSW, LST, and AKs.  The Allied CAP was overwhelmed, but exacted a terrible toll on the Japs.  I'd guesstimate that the Japs lost as many points in aircraft as the Allies did at sea.  On the 16th, a Jap DD TF arrived a Cebu to face an Allied force of CL Sumatra and 15 DD and DE.  The battle was little more than a skirmish with both sides having a handful of DDs damaged.  The Jap force retreated.  Aussie and US infantry, armor, and support units continued to land each day amidst the mayhem, and on the 17th they launched a (mostly) shock attack, which came off at an overwhelming 26:1 even though the defense had a mixed brigade with 5 forts.  The Jap unit evaporated and the Allies took Cebu.  A big victory.
 
This leaves to Jap bases south of Luzon - Ormoc and Iloilo - which the Allies will try to seize soon.
 
On the 17th, several Jap combat TFs and possibly other ships showed up SE of Jolo on a SE heading as if making for Manado.  What the heck is this?  Allied LBA sortied and severely damaged CLs Yubari, Oi, and Kitakuma.  Where are these guys heading?  Are they a screen for something more powerful?  The Allied CVs were at Morotai, so they are moving NW and will take station just north of Manado.
 
The Allies also continued to try to get supplies, engineers, and small infantry garrisons to the "frontier" posts at Puerto Princessa and San Juan, with more success than failure.  A few transports were damaged or sunk by Jap bombers, but Puerto finally went to a level 1 airfield and engineers are working at San Juan.
 
The PI are truly a beehive now, but this may have a signficant impact on the Luzon invasion that's to come.  The Allied landings at Cebu and the other activity probably seem like the "main show" to Miller and I think and hope he's been committing everything to stop the Allied advance.  I think the toll on his ships and aircraft is pretty high.  They may be fatigued or reduced by the time the Luzon invasion force arrives.  Advanced TFs for that mission are now reaching Davao, with others strung out as far as the Townsville area.  Enough should be in place to begin the invasion by month's end or in early December.  They will likely come ashore at Legaspi or Naga, which are more lightly held than Manila and vicinity.  To summarize:  my hope is that the frenzied fighting and manuevering now will diminish the Jap's ability to defend agains the Luzon invasion force.
 
Allied bombers, especially B24s and PBYs, continue to suppress Jap airfields at Tarakan and Palau, and have begun working on Clark and Manila.
 
Solomons:  CV Intrepid, CVL Langley, and a CVE indeed ambushed the Jap invasion force at Buin on the 13th, damaging and sinking many AKs.  The Jap force, consisting of just an SNLF, is far too weak to threaten the Kiwi unit posted there.  Miller will have to bring reinforcements.  The US CVs have retreated to Townsville to refuel and will move to Amboina to support the Luzon operation.
 
Burma:  The Allied siege of Rangoon proceeds.  Soon, the Allied air force will begin a concerted effort to suppress the Jap airfield at Rangoon.  Miller has controlled the air here since the beginning of the war, but I'll see if I can put a halt to that.  I'm not sure the Allied airforce can do it with the mixture of Wellingtons, LibIIIs, and other aircraft on hand.
 
China:  The isolated, out-of-supply Chinese stack near Nanchang continues to drive Miller to distraction.  A Jap shock attack at 1:1 on the 17th cost him 14,686/44/48 to 1654/0/0.  A 2:1 shock attack on the 13th cost the Japs 7,234/75/48 to 1,349/0/0.

11/18/43 to 11/23/43
 
Philippines:  The first TFs of the Luzon invasion fleet have gathered at Davao, with many more following (most of the rest are between Amboina and Townsville, with a few stragglers - those which departed Pearl after the main wave - as far back as Noumea.  The Allied CVs refueled at Amboina and will arrive at Davao in two days.  The invasion should move out for Luzon in a week or ten days.  Probable landing sites are Legaspi and/or Naga, but I may tweak that.  Another Seabee unit is landing at San Jose and that base is 50% of the way to a level one airfield, but progress is painfully slow.  The most forward Allied airbase at the moment is Cebu, which is a 2 about one-half way to 3.  Miller pulled his aircraft out of his forward bases, at least temporarily conceding control of the air to the Allies.  This was disappointing as I had hoped to continue bleeding Jap airpower prior to the invasion.  But Miller is too cagey an opponent, drat him.
 
The Jap combat TFs that I noted in my last post got hammered by Allied air with three CLs taking heavy damage or going under.  I was worried that they might be a screen for something more ominous, but Miller pulled those ships back, with each of the damaged CLs taking additional hits on their way back to Brunei.  I think all of them suffered mortal damage.
 
Burma:  The Allies at long, long last have taken control of the air over Rangoon.  This took place over several turns as Allied fighters from Meiktila engaged in effective sweeps, followed by massed raids of Wellingtons, Liberators, and B-17s hitting Rangoon's airfield.  On the 23rd, some of these bombers switched over to naval attack and savaged a transport convoy and a DD in port.
 
Java:  A large B24/LibIII strike from Koepang hit resources at Soerabaja on the 23rd, but suffered at the hands of Jap fighters.  The primary purpose of this raid is to keep the Japs worried about the area, and I think that is succeeding.
 
This was a quiet period - a prelude to what should be a very busy time to come.  I think the Battle of Luzon will be the key battle of the war.

Dan;

Not that you need advice in this one as you are doing WELL, but anyway.......

What does your intel reveal as to his force dispositions on Luzon?

You indicated your preferred landing spot was at Legaspi/Naga. Have you considered something on the other side of Manila, say, San Marcelino?

The reason Luzon is key is because the bases on the Northwest Coast (San Marcelino, Vigan, Aparri), are large airfields that can instantly shut the Taiwan Strait, and all future Oil/Resource Shipments to Japan. Southeren Luzon, though easier to land on, does nothing for you, other than give you more platforms to attack Northern Luzon. A landing at Naga and Legaspi, seems to me, will get stuck on Manila.

You need to land North of Manila for a decisive landing, IMO. Even without Clark, taking those northern coastal bases will be fatal to Japan. There are also scheduled scheduled Jap reinforcements shortly to those bases, IIRC, in the form of Mixed Brigades.

A landing on San Marcelino would be tougher to support, BUT, you should have San Jose up shortly, and a couple other bases in P-38 range, plus you have plenty of CV support anyway.

11/24/43 to 11/27/43
 
Philippines:  QBall, to answer your question, yes, I have considered landing in northern Luzon.  I'm mulling over three plans:  (1)  Invading southern Luzon, which minimizes the exposure of my CVs to Jap LBA.  This is the no-nonsense, straightforward approach; (2)  Invading northern Luzon - this is risky because my CVs and invasion TFs would be within range of many large Jap airbases on the PI, Taiwan, etc.  This worries me.  (3)  A combo - send the main invasion fleet to Southern Luzon; then, once these troops are landed and perhaps airbases at Naga and Legaspi up and running, then using the Australian troops that took Cebu as a follow-up force to invade northern Luzon.  I'm leaning towards this option.
 
The Luzon invasion force is now largely located at Davao, or between Amboina and Davao.  This is a truly massive force.  It will be ready to move within a week.  In addition to the main Allied CV force, two more CVLs (Bataan and Langley), CV Intrepid, and another CVE are present.
 
San Juan reached level 1 airfield status and is well on its way to 2.  I think it will be a 3 within ten days.  Tacloban just went to a level 1, and Cebu is 2/3rds of the way to level 3.  So the Allies will have advanced bases for fighters.  LBA from Davao, Dadjangas, Cebu, Jolo, and Catoban are in place and currently trying to suppress Legaspi and Manila.  LBA from Morotai and Manado continue to work over Tarakan and Palau.
 
I think the Allies are in really good shape to bring maximum force against Luzon.
 
Burma:  The Allied airforce well and truly shut down Rangoon.  Miller just brought in a host of fighters and bombers to Moulmein, so I shifted my forces around to make sure most of my airbases have good fighter protection.  I'll also try to strike his airfield.
 
China:  The cut-off Chinese stack has withstood bombardments over this period.  Allied fighters abmushed a massed Jap strike against Wuchow, knocking down 80 aircraft to only about 13.  But Miller shifts his targets around so that his aircraft get some experience. 

11/28/43 to 12/3/43
 
Philippines:  The massive Allied invasion fleet will be landing at Legaspi, Luzon, tonight.  I finally selected this option because:  (1) Troops can begin landing immediately, whereas going to Naga would take another day -  day that would give Miller more time to organize a defense; (2) I get the feeling the Japs haven't picked up on this invasion force - the Allies now have so many bases and ships in the central and southern PI that I couldn't detect much recon sightings of the invasion TFs, so they seem to be "sneaking" in before Miller is aware of the maganitude of the threat, and therefore before he can react violently; (3) The Allies have thus far managed to hit Manila enough to shut down the airfield and recon doesn't show any Jap aircraft concentrations on Luzon, so tomorrow should be relatively free of LBA; (4) No sign of the KB or big combat ships, although they could be lurking.
 
The Allies have a number of base forces - a big naval base force (90 AS) and an aviation regiment will come ashore.  Light resistance is expected at Legaspi and Naga, so the Allies could have these air bases up and running in a matter of days.  If so, that would provide additional forward air cover to permit a secondary, follow-up invasion of northern Luzon in a week or so. I'll have plenty of troops available.
 
A Marine Raider battalion will go ashore by itself on the undeveloped island just east of Legaspi.
 
The Allies took the last Jap bases south of Luzon a few days ago.  Ormoc fell after it was abandoned by Jap troops that I think moved over land to try to take back Tacloban.  Iloilo fell to an overwhelming attack, mainly consisting of Aussie infantry and a mixture of Aussie and US armor.  This leaves a host of US and Aussie troops at Iloilo, Cebu, and Davao ready to re-embark on ships to either support the Luzon invasion at Legaspi or, more likely, to invade northern Luzon.
 
As these troops come ashore tomorrow, I expect a desperate reaction from Miller.  I would expect him to stage forward all available air and as many of his ships as he can muster.  So the day after tomorrow could be a bloody day, but I like the Allied position.
 
Burma:  After shutting down Rangoon's airfield, the Allies stomped Miller's effort to base aircraft at Moulmein.  An Allied strike destroyed 80 aircraft on the ground, and the Japs never flew an offensive mission.  For now, both air bases are shut down.
 
China:  Allied airpower here is forcing Miller to change targets daily.  The isolated Chinese stack near Nanchang continues to hold.

12/4/43
 
Philippines:  Strangely quiet turn for both sides.  For some reason, the greater part of my invasion fleet refused to begin unloading at Legaspi.  Only two of the 15 or 20 TFs involved began unloading - those two carrying most of US Army 7th Division and 18th Engineering Combat Team.  These units should be enough to take the hex, so I'm re-routing the rest of the invasion fleet to Naga.  The "rear guard," consisting of most of the carrier cover and another six or eight troop TFs, will steam NW and take position about two hexes north of Naga.  If things go well, these troops will come ashore somewhere in northern Luzon. 
 
An aviation regiment will unload at Naga, and a large naval base force at Legaspi, at least if they obey orders this time, so hopefully the Allies will get these forward airbases up and running in a few days.
 
The 4th Marine Raiders landed at Guiuan (small island east of Legaspi) unopposed and should take it tomorrow.
 
No sign of massed transfer of Jap LBA to Luzon bases, which is the primary factor that persuaded me to move forward.  Miller could be drawing me into a trap, but I don't think so.  I still don't think he is fully aware of the scope of the invasion forces, because I think his recon isn't reporting this accurately yet.
 
Supplies and fuel are going to be a factor for the Allies.  My supply line runs south from the west coast, staying east of Canton Island, then to Bora Bora as a way-point, or else to Noumea.  From there to Amboina.  From there to Davao.  That's a haul.  If Luzon goes well, the Allies may have to make it a priority to take some of the Jap-held Pacific island in order to create a supply route from Midway (where I've been stockpiling fuel and supplies) to the Philippines.
 

12/5/43
 
The Allied invasion of Luzon gained momentum today, there was only lukewarm Japanese response, the magnitude of the invasion and the threat indeed seemed to catch the Japs unawares due to recon flaws, and, while delayed, the Japs are now responding with what looks to be overwhelming force.  Tomorrow may bring on a great engagement.
 
Guiuan:  4th Marine Raiders took this undefended island. The airfield is level 0, so this doesn't offer a support base.
 
Legaspi:  This has become the more minor of the two main invasion points.  Additional troops have come ashore -some of which I meant for Naga - and I've ordered an attack for tomorrow.  Ashore are parts of 7th Division, 51st Naval Base Force, 18th Engineers, 201st Regiment (meant for Naga), 6th Division (meant for Naga), and 754th US Tanks.  The AV ashore is 412.  The Jap defense is just one unit 4,040 strong.  So this attack should succeed, giving the Allies a forward airbase (if the field wasn't too damaged by Allied bombing).  Today, some 27 Betties from Formosa hit the invasion fleet, which had a CAP of about 15 Hellcats and a few other fighters flying LRCAP.  Enough Betties got through to put single TTs into a couple of transports.
 
Naga:  The main invasion fleet continued north from Legaspi and began landing here.  Coming ashore is most of 201st RCT (part landed at Legaspi as noted above); 112th Aviation Regiment; 632 Tank Destroyers; 40th Seabees; 640th Tank Destroyers; 3rd Aussie Tanks; 47th US Engineers; 101 Aussie Anti-Tank unit; 51st Seabees; 1st Aussie Tank Batallion; 125th RCT; 41st Army Division; V Amphibious Corps HQ; 7th Aussie Division; 33rd US Division; 30th Field Artillery; 40th Field Artillery; 65th Coast AA; and 216th Coast AA.  Enough troops came ashore to give the Allies an AV of 645.  I'll try a shock attack tomorrow against a defense of 5 units of unknown strength and composition.
 
Jap Sallys from Luzon airfields came against the Allied CVs and additional invasion TFs (held back to hit northern Luzon if possible) posted 120 miles north of Naga, but in relatively small numbers.  The strikes were totally ineffective against a massive CAP including 186 Hellcats, 40 Brit Corsairs, and some F4Fs and a few LRCAP P-38s from San Jose.
 
The Japs have moved a great number of aircraft to Manila (I show this airfield with 80% damage, so I'm not sure how viable it is, but I'm worried), Clark, and possibly other airfields.  The Japs also have what seems to be a massive fleet - actually a number of TFS - at the island north of Aparri (Bataan?).  So I think the Japs are massing for an assault against the invasion.  I think Miller is correctly assessing the magnitude of the threat and will throw everything he has at the US invasion TFs and carriers.  Miller is very good at this sort of thing, so I'm worried even though the Allies have a heck of alot of firepower.
 
However, I am going to circle the wagons until I get a handle on whether the Japs have enough to seriously threaten the Allied ships.  The Allied CV (and surplus invasion TF) fleet will move to the SE and take station east of Legaspi.  Additional P-38s from the middle PI will offer more LRCAP.  Orders were given to all the Naga invasion TFs to stop unloading and join the Allied CVs.  Similar orders were issued to most of the TFs unloading at Legaspi, although a few will continue to unload, including those carrying 754th Tanks, some of 7th Division, and 18th Engineers.
 
If the Allies win the ensuing naval and air engagements (assuming the Japs don't withdraw, which I think is highly unlikely), then the invasion TFs will return.  By then, I hope the Allies will have the airfields at Legaspi (a 1 right now, I think) and Naga (a 2 right now) up and running.  I have every intention of hitting northern Luzon in force (an intention Q-Ball should like given the sentiments he's expressed here).
 
Tomorrow will be a big day.
 
China: B-24s and B-25s from Chungking and Chengtu hit the Jap airfield at Changsha, destroying some 180 aircraft on the ground.  For the day, including this strike and the fairly light Jap strikes against the Luzon fleets, the Japs lost the following aircraft:  180 (ground); 71 (air-to-air); 2 (flak) and 9 (ops).  The Allies lost 17/0/5/10. 
 
Burma:  Each day, Allied bombers hit the Jap airfields at Rangoon and Moulmein.  A steady stream of ground troop reinforcements are making their way from Bombay to the front, some already nearing Mandalay.  None of these units are "big" - most are armor with AVs of less than 100, and a few are what seem to be light RCTs with AVs of about 110.  Once some of these guys arrive at Rangoon, the Allies will begin trying deliberate attacks.

12/6/43 to 12/7/43

The 6th:  The Luzon invasion continues to go well, with the Allied ships pulling back temporarily while the two belligerants struggle for air supremacy.

On the 6th, the Allied CVs and most transports pulled back to a point 120 miles east of Legaspi.  My fears of a big strike by Jap surface combat ships proved unfounded.  None showed up; nor any CVs.  Jap LBA, mainly from Manila and Clark Field, did sortie against the Allied ships.  There were three waves:  (1) 4 Vals, 83 Tonys, 30 Tojo; (2) 6 Vals, 3 Tonys, 2 Tojo; and (3) 3 Vals, 29 Tonys, 19 Tojos.  None of these made it through the CAP, and the Japs lost 6 Vals, 49 Tojo, and 111 Tonys.  So Jap airpower bled some.

Allied attacks at Legaspi and Naga both succeeded.  At Legaspi, the deliberate attack vs. 140th Base Force came in at 31:1, forts 2.  The Japs lost 252/4 to 100/3.  The Allies took the base and promptly transferred 2 Corsair squadrons to the level 2 airfield.

At Naga, the defense consisted of 4 Naval Construction batallions and one regular construction batallion.  The Allied shock attack came in at 29:1 and inflicted 635/0/0 to 63/3/0.  The Allies took the base and transfered in a Hellcat squadron to the level 1 airbase.

It appears that Miller may be moving some units south from Manila toward Naga.  I hope so, anyhow, because there's no way he's going to have enough to regain these hexes, and the main Allied effort will still be northern Luzon once I feel like the Allies have a handle on the LBA threat.  There were 6 units about 40,000 strong in Manila two days ago, but now there are only 4, with some 7 units now a hex to the south (these probably being the 2 missing from Manila joining the units that retreated from Naga).  Bataan is lightly held; Clark is moderately held (I think about 35k Jap troops); Aparri is vacant at the moment.  I haven't had time yet to recon other bases like San Fernando, Baguio, and Vigan.

Allied efforts to LBA bomb Manila and Clark were ineffectual, and the Japs still had hundreds of aircraft here based on recon.  Therefore, I decided to move my carriers and transport TFs a little further away from Miller's bases to see what might happen.

The 7th:  Jap LBA returned again with three more strikes, including one with about 100 bombers (Bettys and Helens).  Once again, the Allied CAP took care of the intruders, knocking down 143 fighters and bombers while losing just a handful.  That's about 350 aircraft downed in the Philippines, not to mention the 180 destroyed on the ground in China two days ago.  I'll take a careful look at my CVs and carrier-based aircraft to determine whether they are still up to campaigning - if sorties are running low, or the pilots are fatigued, I'll put into port briefly.  If things are still looking good (and I think they are), the invasion fleet may move north again toward a beach in northern Luzon.  I should be able to base three or four P38 squadrons at Legaspi and Naga to provide LRCAP, but there's big risk here simply because the Japs have big bases at Manila, Clark, and Formosa.

Further south, the Allies tried a fighter sweep over Soerabaja (Corsairs and Hellcats from Bali) and found zero fighters where there were 100+ the last time I tried a week or so ago.  It seems the Japs moved all fighters to Philippines.  B24s and Liberator IIIs (about 150) from Koepang knocked out 31 resource points.

Allied LBA from Manado and Morotai continue to suppress the Jap fields at Palau and Tarakan.  I'm resting many big LBA squadrons at Davao and Jolo in hopes that I can coax a big, effective strike against either Clark of Manila when my invasion fleet moves north again.

The Allies have landed only a fraction of the ground units embarked on the invasion transports.  In addition, the Allies have many units available in Davao, and more troops (including 3rd Marine Division, approaching Amboina) on the way.  Many of the US troops are now 80% or more prepped for Manila.  I think the Allies are going to overwhelm the Japs on Luzon.

If Clark and Manila truly have 75K combined troops, and there isn't a huge force lurking somewhere you haven't scouted yet, he is in serious trouble. Very serious. Those forces you pushed over on Southern Luzon were worse than nothing, just placeholders/speed bumps, and little fort prep. In my game as Japan in 4/43 I have.....well, let's just say there aren't many spots in the PI with only 2 forts, and I'm sure the Allies are a year away.

Victory is within reach for you, if you can grab a lvl 5 airfield on Northern Luzon, it's very very very very bad for Japan.

12/8/43
 
It's worth repeating that both Miller and I have very little experience.  This is his first WitP game as Japs (and third overall) and it was my first.  Miller is conservative - very rarely risks his CVs - and tenacious on the defense.  When we finish this game, I hope he will explain the game from his perspective.  In the game, I think he decided to emphasize defense of certain areas - the Marshalls, the Solomons, Borneo, Java, and Burma - with success (his expelling my invasion force from Java, and his long, tenacious defense of Rangoon being two examples).  However, he can't be strong everywhere, and the Celebes and Philippines have been relatively lightly held.  For these two, I suspect he had decided that the great number of mutually supporting air bases would be a big part of his defense.  Had Miller strongly garrisoned the PI, I would have looked to either Borneo or Java, preferring to attack the weakest area.

The Allied invasion fleet moved north again to a point 120 miles NE of Naga.  Trying to suppress Jap LBA, Corsairs and Hellcats from San Jose flew a sweep over Clark, followed by raids by B24s from Davao, which destroyed many aircraft on the ground.  Nevertheless, waves of Jap fighters and bombers from Clark, Manila, and Formosa targeted both shipping at Legaspi and the Allied invasion/CV TFs to the north.  The Legaspi raiders made it through, damaging about 10 transports.  None of the raiders penetrated the CV CAP.

For very small return, it was another bad day in the air for the Japs, who lost 201 in air-to-air, 62 on the ground, and 4 to opps (a total of 267 aircraft).  The Allies lost 69 (most - 58 - in air-to-air).

The fatigue and morale levels for Allied CV fighters remains good, and all CVs have at least 90% sorties left, but the four days of big air battles has left about 1/3 of Allied fighters needing repair.  For instance, on turn one of the invasion, the Allied CVs put up 186 Hellcats on CAP.  By turn 4, that was down to 131.  So I am pulling the fleets back to Davao to rest and refuel.  This will allow additional troop transports to join.  It will also allow LBA to work over Jap airfields at Clark and Manila.  The invasion of Northern Luzon should be ready to sail from Davao in about seven days.

The Allied troops landed already at Legaspi and Naga have a combined AV of about 1500.  In another day or two, most of the units at Legaspi will move north to Naga.  Then the combined force will move a hex north toward Manila.  This force should be imposing enough to have Miller's full attention.  The force Invading Northern Luzon will be much larger.

Legaspi can handle 100 aircraft at the moment, and Naga 50.  In addition, San Juan is at level 3 now and can thus base 150 aircraft.  Since it is just two hexes south of Manila, it's an important base.  It should reach level 4 in a week or ten days.

Burma:  Allied reinforcements are moving from Meiktila and Mandalay to Rangoon.  None of these are "big" units, but the total AV boost should be 300 to 400.  Allied bombers continue to hit the airfields at Moulmein and Rangoon, and also ground troops at Rangoon.  The Allies will try a deliberate attack in about a week.

China:  Nothing has changed here.  Still a mess of mixed up units.

12/9/43 to 12/13/43
 
The Luzon invasion TFs spent a few days in Davao replenishing ammunition and resting and replacing aircraft, especially fighters, tired out by the invasions of Legaspi and Naga.  Now the force has taken to the seas again, and I think a major clash will occur.
 
Naga/Legaspi:  This invasion was most successful.  The Allies have 1475 AV ashore with both airbases at level 2 and building.  Six or seven fighter squadrons are based at these two fields.  Miller has moved 7 units a hex south of Manila (and a hex north of Naga) in a blocking position.  I haven't advanced my troops yet, but I will soon.  Legaspi has 100k supplies, so both these bases are in good shape to support the upcoming invasion of Northern Luzon.
 
Enemy Disposition:  It still seems that the Japs have too few ground troops to adequately defend Northern Luzon.  There are the 7 units south of Manila, Minila itself has about 40k troops, and Clark Field the same.  Miller is landing troops at Lingayen, but his transports were hammered on the 12th by big raids, including one of 74 B24s and another of 68.  At least 7 APs took multiple hits on the first big raid.  Many Northern Luzon bases look empty, including Aparri, which is my target.  Miller just moved 300 aircraft to Manila, so tomorrow I've ordered sweeps by 100+ Hellcats and Corsairs, to be followed by B17s and B24s from Davao, Dadjangas, and Jolo.  Miller's CVs were recently based at Hong Kong (my recon from San Jose can reach that far, which must be disconcerting to Miller).  I think he'll throw everything at the invasion fleet.
 
Invasion Force:  It sailed from Davao on the 12th and will be off Samar tomorrow - D-Day should be around the 16th.  Ground troops area:  40th Division, 41st Division, 1st Aussie Division, 3rd Aussie Division, 112th Cavalry Regiment, 1st Cavalry Division, 503rd US Paratroops, 37th RCT; 11 Marine Defense Batallion, 77th Seabees, 1st Marine Amphibous HQ, 133rd Aviation Regiment, 183rd Field Artillery, 188th Field Artillery, and 1st Marine Paratroops.  Following closely will be 2nd US Marine Divison, 3rd US Marine Division, 3rd Constulabary Regiment, and 127th US Naval Base Force.  These latter may land at Legaspi or Naga, depending on how hot things are and where they are needed.  Further back (nearing Townsville, Australia) are many other support units including Seabees, anti-aircraft, engineering aviation, and more.
 
Surface Combat Fleet:  Three fairly week surface combat TFs are escorting the transports:  (1) BB Oklahoma with one CL and some DDs; (2) CA Australia with 3 CLs, 1 CLAA, and some DDS, and (3) BB West Virginia, CA Baltimore, and DDs.  I may take some of the heavy escorts from the CV TFs to bolster my surface combat capability.
 
Carrier Fleet:  There are currently 9 CV TFs: (1) CV Yorktown and CVL Cowpens; (2) CV Saratoga and CVL Monterey; (3) CV Formidable; (4) CVL Intrepid and CVE Casablanca; (5) CV Victorious and CVL Independence; (6) CVL Langley; (7) CVE Anzio; (8) CVEs Breton and Prince William; (9) CVL Bataan and a CVE.  I may consolidate a couple of these.  The CVEs will accompany the invasion fleet.  The CVs and CVLs will move north into harm's way to try to blunt Miller's use of his heavy combat ships (he's only lost a single BB in the game, and just a handful of CAs, and this is probably his most potent weapon now).
 
Objectives:  First priority is to seize the airfield at Aparri and get it up and running.  Second will be to spread out and seize empty or lightly-defended bases.  Third will be to move on Clark and or Manila, coordinating with the forces currently at Naga and Legaspi.  I expect to hold most of Luzon by the end of the year, with the exception of Manila, Clark, and perhaps Bataan. 
 
Elsewhere:  (1)  China:  B-24s from Chungking and Chengtu hit Haiphong on the 13th, destroying 51 aircraft (nearly half of them Topsys) on the ground.  Miller tried a deliberate attack at 0:1 at Lungchow on the 11th, but it failed to accomplish anything.  Japs incurred losses of 1456/52/2 to 86/0/0. (2) Burma:  Reinforcements continue to arrive at Rangoon and the Allies will try a deliberate attack within the week.  Allied bombers hit Rangoon and Moulmein daily.  Milller stopped basing aircraft here quite some time ago.  (3)  Java:  B-24s from Koepang hit Soerabaja, preceeded by fighters sweeps.  No Jap fighters were encountered and the Liberators destroyed 36 resource points.

12/14/43 and 12/15/43
 
Once more into the breach...  The Luzon invasion fleet is 160 miles north of Naga and will arrive at the hex between Aparri and Tuguegaro tomorrow.  If all goes well, D-Day is the 17th.  I expect the Japs to throw everything available against the invasion and covering fleets, so this should be a bloody and decisive battle.
 
On the 15th, I reconfigured the TFs to augment the surface combat fleets and to combine and reconfigure some of the carrier fleets.  Here's what I have:
 
Surface combat:  (1) BB Oklahoma, 2 CL, 10 DD, 1 DMS; (2) BB Massachusetts, CA Australia, 2 CL, CLAA, 3 DD, 1 DMS; and (3) BB West Virginia, CA Baltimore, 4 DD, 1 DE, 3 DMS.  These are still fairly weak since the Japs have many BBs and CAs available.
 
CVs:  Now 7 TFs:  (1) CV Victorious, CVL Independence; (2) CV Intrepid, CVL Langley; (3) CV Formidable, CVL Bataan; (4) CV Saratoga, CVL Monterey, (5) CV Yorktown, CVL Cowpens; (6) CVEs Casablanca, Anzio, Liscome Bay; and (7) CVEs Breton and Prince William.
 
In a pre-D-Day surprise, fast transports carried 4th Marine Raiders to an unoccupied Tuguergaro, just south of Aparri.  This base appears unoccupied (as does Aparri).  Both of these are currently level 2 airbases, so if things go well the Allies could have local air cover in just a couple of days.
 
A factor in favor of the Allies are the close-by airbases that can provide LRCAP.  For the 16th, LRCAP will be: (1) Legaspi - one squadron each P38s and F4Us; (2) Naga - 2 Hellcat squadrons and one P38; and (3) Jolo - 40 P38s.
 
I think the Allies are covered as well as possible from the air, but I'm concerned about surface combat.  Perhaps Miller will conclude my ships are coming ashore tomorrow (since my Raiders landed yesterday) and will commit his ships there.  If he does, the Allied CVs may get a crack at them before any surface combat develops.  That would be nice.
 
Most Allied LBA in the Southern PI will be set for naval attack, but a few squadrons of B-17s and B-24s are set to hit the airfields at Manila and Clark.  However, my ships will be awfully close to the big airfields on Formosa.  B-24s in Chungking will strike Amoy on the China coast, which is also fairly close to Aparri.
 
If this invasion goes well for the Allies, I think it will be the end for the Japs.  If Miller gets the best of things, it will breathe new life into his campaign.
 
Elsewhere:  (1)  Burma:  The Allies ground attacks on Rangoon will begin soon, (2) China:  Allied fighters met massed waves of Jap aircraft over Hengchow, downing 90 aircraft on the 15th, (3) Elsewhere:  Quiet.
 
Other US CVs:  CVE Corregidor is escorting the transports carrying 3rd Marine Division, currently east of Davao; CV Franklin is nearing Townsville; five CVs, CVLs, and CVEs are repairing at Sydney; most of these are many months from being ready to return to battle, but CVL Princeton is down to SYS 20 and could be ready in about a month.  CV Bunker Hill (SYS 78) and CVLs Belleau Wood and Cabot are also here.
 

12/16/43
 
As the Allied invasion fleet approached northern Luzon, there was plenty of action, with the Japs seemingly being clever.

Invasion Force: The invasion fleet arrived at the hex between Aparri and Tugauegarao without incident.  There wasn't any appearance by the Jap combat ships.  For reasons explained further below, the invasion force will head into Tuguegarao (rather than Aparri) tonight. Once again, the Allies reconfigured combat fleets trying to bolster the strength of the ships that will protect the troop transports.  Two combat TFs and two CVE TFs (5 CVEs total) will accompany the troop transports. The combat TF that lacked a BB stripped one from a CV TF, and both combat TFs added CAs and DDs.  I forgot to have the 4th Marine Raiders attack and take the undefended hex (), a dumb oversight as I could have had the airfield operational tomorrow.  Now I'll have to wait another day.

Invasion Cover:  On the 16th, the Japs posted a big fleet comprised mainly of TKs just north of Luzon.  The Allied carrier aircraft sortied and damaged or sunk many of these - at least 15 ships.  I think this Jap TF was a decoy to soak up Allied attacks.  Massed Jap air strikes came in from Formosa, but failed to penetrate the CAP.  The Japs lost 295 aircraft in a2a combat, while the Allies lost just 35.

Tomorrow, one combat TF and the CV/CVL TFs will separate from the invasion TFs and steam north, taking a position just north of Aparri.  This is as exposed a position as there is - exposed to big Jap airbases on Formosa, the China coast, Okinawa, Luzon (although the main two bases have been repeatedly bombed and don't show presence of Jap aircraft at the moment), Saigon, etc.  They will be in harm's way, but that's necessary to protect the invasion fleet.  My current plan is for the CVs to continue into the South China Sea to ward off some transport convoys that seem to be heading from Java or other points towards Luzon.

The Allied B24 strike from Chungking to Amoy struck gold, destroying 66 aircraft on the ground.  That's 66 that won't fly against Allied CVs.

While the main show will take place at Luzon, the Allied army at Rangoon will try a deliberate attack tomorrow, the first in about a month.

I believe the next two days will be decisive. 

Edited to add: I decided to come ashore at Tuguegarao rather than Aparri because I hope Miller will guess that Aparri is the objective and thus send his combat ships that way.

Edited again to add the note I just got from Miller: I am about to run the turn now. I have sent every last available carrier to attack. I predict I will lose most of them, I just hope at least a few of my bombers get through the CAP.....

So tomorrow should decide the war.

12/17/43
 
This was D-Day, and the Allied troops came ashore at Tuguegarao, a base on the east side of Luzon.  There were a number of imporant clashes, but nothing decisive happened. The Jap combat ships did not arrive at the invasion hex (Miller probably thought I was heading to Aparri, a hex further north, and sent his ships there, but I don't know for certain since I didn't have anything there).  That meant my troops and supplies began unloading without opposition.  This included enough base force troops to allow the Allies to make full use of this level 2 airfield, since the city was captured the previous turn by 4th Marine Raiders.  Three fighter squadrons and an SBD squadron moved here during the day, so the fighters can provide close-range CAP tomorrow.

The Japs has a number of stout combat and carrier TFs to the north, just east of Bataan Island.  The CVs of both sides reacted, but neither side attacked the other's carriers.  That was surprising.  Five Allied CV TFs reacted to the NE, leaving behind all the TFs they were meant to protect.  (Why, oh why, doesn't Matrix do away with the react feature, since it results in mayhem.  I had all carriers set to "Max React 0" and set to follow a combat TF, but they ignored both.  It's ridiculous that players have to turn summersaults to prevent CVs from reacting, and then they go and do it anyhow).  Thus, my CVs are now out in the open and awfully exposed.  I've ordered all my ships - transports, escorts, surface combat, and carriers - to rendezvous east of the invasion hex, with plenty of LBA to provide LRCAP. Thus, I halted the transports from unloading temporarily.  This will allow me to gather all my forces together for maximum CAP - assuming ships obey orders which is a mighty iffy assumption.

The need to move together is based on the proximity of the Jap CVs (I can only imagine 150 Kates coming in, my CAP downing 100 of them, but the 50 bleeders wreaking havoc).  The attrition resulting from back-to-back turns involving heavy aerial combat (more about the to follow) has reduced my numer of fighters, so the risk of a successful enemy attack grows each day.

The Allied CVs did launch a series of strikes, but all against CA/CL combat TFs north of Aparri.  The results should seriously weaken the number of cruisers Miller can send my way.  Here is a list of the CAs and CLs damaged (torpedoe/bomb hits):  Aoba (1/0); Kako (1/0); CL Oyoda (1/2); Chikuma (2/5); Tone (4/1); CL Yura (0/1); Nachi (0/1); Myoko (0/3), and Atago (0/2).  I think Chikuma, Tone, and Oyoda ought to go under.

There were several Jap attacks, mostly Bettys from Formosa, escorted by large numbers of fighters.  None got through and the Japs lost 189 aircraft in one strike, and 54 in another.  The Allies lost 22 fighters, mainly Hellcats.  There are many other fighters, however, that are in need of repair; so, like I said, attrition has weakened Allied CAP even though it was a successful day.

A few Helens on recon scored some hits on Allied transports, but nothing to worry about.

The bulk of the infantry and Marines will move south to Baguio, while an Aussie division and 4th Marines will move north to seize Aparri and the city to the northwest.

Miller's evaluation:  "Its fair to say that the next turn will be my last throw of the
dice......." 

He had no choice but to throw everything against me, and he had little hope of victory since Allied fighters seem to rule the skies.  The biggest question mark now is whether the dispersal of the Allied CVs (darn that react feature) might expose them to some kind of disasterous attack. 

Burma:  The long-awaited Allied deliberate attack at Rangoon didn't go all that well.  The raw AV is (Allies) 5468 to (Japs) 1583.  Adjusted AV was 2897 to 1624 (not bad, I thought), and the attack came off at 1:1 with the Japs having 8 forts.  The Allies lost 7843/216/22 to 1792/63/1.  I'll rest for a week or so and allow my bombers to hit the city as often as possible.  Despite the disparity in losses, I think the adjusted AV shows that the Allies are making progress.  Rangoon may fall within six weeks.